the week three predictions

Last Week ATS: 9-7-0
Season to Date ATS: 19-13-0

Last Week SU: 10-6-0
Season to Date SU: 22-10-0

Last Week Upset / Week: I love Norv Turner.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 1-1-0
This Week's Upset / Week: there are three road dogs I really, really love outright this week. I love the Dolphins at San Diego. I love the 49ers in Minnesota. But for the Upset of the Week, well, (steve voice) take a f*cking guess. (dusty voice) oh no! Steve's going with the Chiefs! (everyone else voice) but the Chiefs always win outright when his official Upset of the Week pick is "take a f*cking guess ..."

The Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* Titans (+3) 21, at Jets 20. I firmly believe you don't hit must win until you hit 0-3, but it would certainly behoove the Titans to steal this one in the Meadowlands.

* at Texans (-3 1/2) 34, Jaguars 3. Texans own the Jags. That, and the Jags have quit on Jack Of-The-River.

* at Ravens (-13) 74, Browns 0. The NFL record for most points scored in a game is 73. Could be a historic ass whoopin in the Charmed City on Sunday.

* Giants 24, at Bucs (+6) 21. Not really a trap game, as the Giants should (in theory) roll KC next week. But coming off two straight NFC East wins, could be in store for a letdown.

* Redskins (-6) 31, at Lions 3. Wayne Allyn Root Contrarian Game of the Week. Everyone loves Detroit. When in doubt, always bet the opposite of the gambling public.

* Packers (-6 1/2) 34, at Rams 27. Smells like a Rodgers to Jennings with :31 left to win type of game.

* at Patriots (-4) 28, Falcons 20. I will go to my grave with one gambling strategory I will never abandon. I will never, ever, EVER!, bet against a proven, veteran team, playing at home, with its back to the wall. The Pats need this one badly. Their next three after this one: vs Ravens, at broncos, vs Titans.

* 49ers (+6 1/2) 21, at Vikings 17. I was thrilled that the Sports Guy and Cousin Sal both agree with me on this. An underrated rising team on the road against the most overrated team in football.

* at Seahawks (+1 1/2) 13, Bears 10. I think Wallace can win this one in Seattle. In Chicago, I'd have predicted a Bears romp.

* at Bills (-6) 34, Saints 24. The Steve Gut Feeling Game of the Week. I love Buffalo at home in this one. Love the Bills in this spot.

* Dolphins (+6) 21, at Chargers 20. Chargers are beat up, and have a horrid head coach. Dolphins are desperate and really can't afford to fall to 0-3. They somehow, someway, find a way to win this.

* Steelers (-4) 24, at Bengals 17. "Ben" is 10-0 in the state of Ohio in his pro career. He'll be 12-0 at least by the time this season is over.

* at raiders (+1 1/2) 3, broncos 0. I have said it before, and in light of the developments of the past week, well, I have to say it again. If the terrorists strike oakland during this game, it is NOT a national tragedy. Especially if the hit occurs in the "ass crack of America".

* at Cardinals (-2 1/2) 41, Colts 38. This might wind up being the game of the year in terms of excitement. Feels like Colts / Chiefs in the 2003 playoffs, last team with the ball wins because neither side can stop the other. I am looking forward to this big time.

* at Cowboys 17, Panthers (+9) 16. I am not sure on this pick at all. The Cowboys don't look right. The Panthers really can't afford to be 0-3 overall and in the conference at the bye. Somehow Dallas wins this thing, but I'll be damned if I know how.

The Chiefs Prediction:

0-2.

For the fourth straight season. For the fifth time in six years. And for the seventh time this decade.

The good news is, no Chiefs team this decade has started worse than 0-3. Even more shockingly, nearly every time the Chiefs opened 0-2 or worse, then got their first win, it was in upset fashion:

* 2000: lost vs Colts and at Titans in overtime, then blew out an awful Chargers team 42-17 in week three.

* 2001: lost vs raiders on the last play of the game, and vs Giants in one of the most emotional games in NFL history. Then stunned the Redskins on the road as huge underdogs.

* 2004: lost at broncos, vs Panthers, and vs Texans, before stunning the Ravens in Baltimore on a Monday night.

* 2006: lost vs Bengals and at broncos, before destroying a 49ers team that thankfully, had one legitimate roadie in them that season.

* 2007: lost at Texans and at Bears, before squeaking by an average Vikings team.

* 2008: lost at Patriots, vs raiders, and at Falcons, before beating up on the donkeys in Arrowhead.

So there's precedent. History says the Chiefs will win at least one of these next two games.

At the risk of being labeled a homer, I look at this game, and I see no McNabb. I see no Westbrook. I see a bad Eagles secondary that is coming off a blowout loss, and they're now facing an offensive coordinator who picked them to pieces in the NFC Championship last year.

Every year I make at least one wacky Chiefs upset pick that has no business occurring, and yet it does. I nailed our win over denver last year. I nailed the win in San Diego in 2007 and got ridiculed for it all week ... up until D Bowe took it to the house to steal that one. Everyone laughed at me when at 0-2 in 2006, I guaranteed a Chiefs playoff berth.

I'm going out on the limb again. Chiefs (+9) 31, at Eagles 28. Its not who you play, its when you play them. And you can't catch the Eagles at a better time than what we have ...