the week one predictions

Welcome to NFL 2009!

For the record, and since numerous people heard my prediction last night, I'm counting it, I had Pittsburgh 17, Tennessee (+5.5) 14 as my prediction. So we're off to a rock solid start!

(aka, probably the only time this year I'm on the plus side of .500).

No traditional, inspirational, "show up Sunday" pep-talk-style-picks this week. Mainly because the Chiefs are in Baltimore. And the Jets are in Houston. So in its place, I'm going to link the games to the top 15 songs on my iPod. And yes, as you'll soon see: I listen to everything.

Also ... yes, the live blog returns Sunday in all probability. I'd put the odds at 95% right now. Nothing says "crazy delusional Chiefs fan" like me live blogging the game ...

Last Week ATS: 0-0
Season to Date ATS: 1-0

Last Week SU: 0-0
Season to Date SU: 1-0

Last Week's Upset of the Week: none.
Season to Date Upset of the Week: 0-0
This Week's Upset of the Week: Raiders (+9) over Chargers.

The Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* "Its been about a year now,
Ain't seen or heard from you,
I've been missing you crazy,
How do you, how do you sleep?

I found the letter you wrote me,
It still smells just like you.
Damn your sweet memory!!!
How do you, how do you sleep?"

-- Jesse McCartney, "How Do You Sleep".

at Texans (-4.5) 34, Jets 13. I wonder how Brett Favre can sleep at night. He admits now he was not capable of playing QB in December, and cost my other favorite team a playoff berth, a division championship, and potentially more than that because he was too damned selfish to step aside for two weeks. He completely whizzed on the legend status he had in Green Bay by b*tching his way to New York, and now landing in Minnesota.

I think Houston wins this in blowout fashion. Rookie QB making his debut on the road at a damned underrated fanbase, coupled with another God awful Mike Tannenbaum hire at head coach, equals at least an 0-5 start for Gang Green. And a lot of drinking by me.

* "Let's all pack up and move this year,
We'll skip the liars and disappear.
Leave memories for auctioneers,
And those just standing still.

They'll miss the taste of wanting you.
Call out your name like I still do.
Haven't said a word that's true,
And they only hold you down.

In this heartbreak world
I've just imagined,
With tired talk of better days;
In this heartbreak world
Where nothing matters,
Come on, let's make this dream
That's barely half awake come true ..."

-- Matt Nathanson, "Heartbreak World".

at Colts 20, Jaguars (+7) 17. Jags do what they usually do: cover the spread but lose in Indy. Although I for one would see the irony in a Jacksonville move to LA after this season. Giving a team to Jacksonville for no obvious reason is what set off the domino effect of franchise relocation in the NFL in the mid 90s.

* "And now I'm yellin' over her,
She yellin' over me,
All that that means, is
Neither of us is listening

And what's even worse, that we don't
Even remember why we're fighting;

So both of us are mad for
Nothing (fighting for)
Nothing (crying for)
Nothing (whoa oh oh)
But we won't let it go for
Nothing (no not for)
Nothing -- this should be nothing
To a love like we got ..."

-- NeYo, "Mad".

at Bengals (-4) 34, broncos 3. I love the josh mcdaniels era already. Fire Hall of Fame caliber coach? check. Piss off potential franchise QB so much that he whines his way out of town? check. Piss off Pro Bowl WR so much that he tries same tactic? check. Your 2009 denver broncos! I am so going to enjoy their season ...

* "Summer came and left without a warning -
All at once I looked, and you were gone.
Now you're looking back at me,
Searching for a way that we can be
Like we were before ...

Now I'm back to what I knew before you.
But how the city doesn't look the same.
I'd give my life for one more night,
Of having you here to hold me tight,
Oh please, take me there again ...

And I remember how you loved me.
Time was all we had until the day we said goodbye!
And I remember every moment
Of those endless summer nights ..."

-- Richard Marx, "Endless Summer Nights".

at Cardinals (-6.5) 41, 49ers 6. Defending NFC champs, coming off an 0-4 feud filled preseason. Smells like an explosion waiting to happen.

* "Hello.
Let me introduce you to
The characters in the show.
One says yes, one says no.

Decide.
Which voice in your head
You can keep alive.

Even in madness
I know you'll still believe!
Paint me on canvas so I become
What you can never be!

I dare you to tell me
To walk through fire!
Wear my soul and call me a liar!

I dare you to tell me
To walk through fire!
I dare you tell me!
I dare you to!"

-- Shinedown, "I Dare You".

Vikings (-4) 31, at Browns 20. There's no coach in the sport with a hotter seat under his ass than Brad Childress. He'll need to walk through fire (and through the NFC straight to Miami come mid February) if he intends to be back in 2010.

* "I'm hiding in Honduras;
I'm a desperate man.
Send lawyers, guns and money -
The shit has hit the fan!"

-- Warren Zevon, "Lawyers, Guns and Money".

at Raiders (+9) 24, Chargers 20. The shit will hit the fan for the Chargers this year. The Chargers have regressed by 3 games each year Norv's been in charge. From 14 wins, to 11, to 8 last year. Wouldn't shock me at all to see that trend continue. The Spanos family will want to send lawyers and money to deal with Norv when this season is over. The Chargers fanbase might want the middle item ...

* "Though the dawn may be coming soon,
There still may be some time -
Fly me away to the bright side of the moon,
And meet me on the other side ...

Ooh dream weaver!
I believe you can get me through the night!
Ooh dream weaver!
I believe we can reach the morning light ..."

-- Gary Wright, "Dream Weaver".

at Falcons (-4) 31, Dolphins 24. Last year's two charmed existance franchises. Whose drug-induced buzz wears off first? (I say Miami's; the first five weeks are brutal, just brutal).

* I'll follow you down til the sound
Of my voice will haunt you!
(Was I just a fool?)
You'll never get away from the sound
Of the woman that loved you!
(Was I just a fool?)
I'll follow you down til the sound
Of my voice will haunt you!
(Give me just a chance!)
You'll NEVER get away! NEVER get away!
NEVER GET AWAY!!!!

You could be my ... Silver Springs,
My blue green colors flashing ..."

-- Fleetwood Mac, "Silver Springs".

at Giants 17, Redskins (+6.5) 16. This is the game I am most looking forward to in week one, other than the Chiefs of course. A great NFC East battle right off the bat. And specifically, we'll see if the franchise's flirtation with every QB available motivates Jason Campbell (as I think it will) or if it demotivates him to be even more mediocre than he has been. Great late afternoon game.

* "Excuse me please?
One more drink.
Could you make it strong?
Cause I don't need to think,
She broke my heart,
My grace is gone.
One more drink and I'll move on ..."

-- Dave Matthews Band, "Grace is Gone".

Eagles (-2) 34, at Panthers 17. The Jake Delhomme as a competent NFL QB express has sailed. I advise stocking up the booze Panthers fans, you're gonna need "just one more" quite a bit this fall.

* "I believe in you!
You know the door to my very soul!
You're the light in my deepest darkest hour!
You're my savior when I fall!

And you may not think
That I care for you,
When you know down inside
That I really do.

And its me you need to show -
How deep is your love!
(How deep is your love)
How deep is your love?
I really need to learn.

Cause we're living in a world of fools,
Breaking us down,
When they all should let us be!
We belong to you and me ..."

-- Bee Gees or Take 6 (both versions rock), "How Deep Is Your Love".

at Packers (-3.5) 28, Bears 24. Of course the defining love song from my co-favorite movie of all time is making this countdown. Seriously, the final scene in "Saturday Night Fever" ... well, I could argue why SNF is the greatest movie ever in depth for over an hour. The primary reason being, the scene everyone remembers, the famous final dance scene with Travolta and Karen Lynn Gorney dancing to "More Than a Woman" to win the contest, the scene the movie spends 100 plus minutes building to as the penultimate moment ... is just the beginning of the actual finale. The climax isn't the climax. If that makes sense. Since I said it, it probably doesn't.

But the final scene, after they win the rigged dance contest, after Tony finally explodes with sexual frustration and tries to rape Stephanie, after Annette explodes with frustration at Tony's inability to acknowledge her and she gets gang-banged in the back of the car on the (alleged) Brooklyn Bridge, after Double J explodes with frustration at his inability to cope with knocking his girl up and takes to the cable ropes on the (alleged) Brooklyn Bridge ... (seriously, people wonder why I love this movie? Just reread the preceding sentences! How can you NOT get drawn in by a movie like this!) ... after Double J ends it by jumping into the East Hudson, after the night on the subway, when Tony shows up at Stephanie's brownstone because he has nowhere else to go, and you get this classic scene:

(stephanie) you think you can handle that? You think you can be friends? With a girl?
(tony) tell you the truth? I don't know. But I want to try.
(stephanie) ok. ok.
(hold hands in the window of the brownstone)

That scene just gets to me.

My point? Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers, were Tony and Stephanie in the brownstone's window sill last year. A relationship of convenience, not sure if it could work, but willing to give it a chance. This year? I feel they're all in. I like this Packers team, a lot. Beginning Sunday night.

Jesus, there's still 4 games and the Chiefs game to go. Hang in there ...

* "Last year's wishes,
Are this year's apologies,
Every last time I come home.

I take my last chance,
To burn a bridge or two,
I only keep myself this sick in the head
Cause I know how the words get to you,

We're the new face of failure!
Prettier and younger, but not any better off!
Bulletproof from loneliness, at best,
At best ..."

-- Fall Out Boy, "Me N U".

Cowboys 28, at Bucs (+6) 24. What a collapse last fall by Tampa. From 9-3 to not even reaching the playoffs. Not quite 1995 Oakland Raider-esque (from 8-2 to 8-8), but still just as damning. The Bucs are the new face of failure. Although the Cowboys might steal that mantle from them come December.

* "And noone in this industry,
Understands the life I lead.
When I sing about my past,
Its not a gimmick, not an act!

These critics and these trust fund kids,
Try to tell me what punk is,
But when I see them on the street,
They got nothing to say!

And if I make it through the day,
Will tomorrow be the same?
Am I just running in place?
And if I stumble and I fall,
Should I get up and carry on?
Or will it all just be the same?

Cause I'm young and I'm hopeless,
I'm lost and I know this,
We're going nowhere fast,
That's what they say ..."

-- Good Charlotte, "The Young and the Hopeless".

at Saints (-13) 52, Lions 20. Yes, I'm laying 13. Detroit is the very definition of the young and the hopeless.

* "Please don't cry one tear for me,
I'm not afraid of what I have to say,
This is my one and only voice,
So listen close -
Its only for today.

I just saw Hailey's Comet, she waved
Said why you always running in place?
Even the man in the moon disappeared,
Somewhere in the stratosphere.

Tell my mother! Tell my father!
I've done the best I can.
To make them realize,
This is my life -
I hope they understand.

I'm not angry, I'm just saying -
Sometimes goodbye is a second chance,
Here is my chance!
This is my chance ..."

-- Shinedown, "Second Chance".

at Patriots (-10.5) 62, Bills 3. An ass kicking of Biblical proportions. Tom Brady gets his second chance. TO embarks on his what, 55th?

* "I finally went out in the kitchen,
While I had myself the urge,
I rummaged through the refrigerator,
Poured myself a beer.

I can't believe I'm really here,
And she's lying in that bed!
I can almost feel her touch,
And her anxious breath!

I stumble into her way,
Outside the bedroom door.
I hear her call out to me -
I hear the fear in her voice.

She pulls the covers tighter,
I press against the door ...

I will be with her tonight!
I will be with her tonight!
I will be with her tonight!
I will be with her yeah ay ay ah!"

-- Toadies, "Tyler".

at Seahawks (-8.5) 31, Rams 3. I have long argued this is the most underrated song of the 90s. Granted, I guess I love the Toadies more than most folks. One of my favorite concerts ever was the week before I graduated college. Me, Frank, Mike and Niko were in Dallas for a Stars game, and hit up the Hard Rock after the game. And lo and behold, playing live was Todd Lewis and the boys. And they absolutely killed that night.

But the final chorus, the lyrics above, tell me that's not just an amazing writing ability. To sum up in words the feeling of "holy shit, I'm getting laid! suh-weet!" isn't all that tough to do. But to do it with the prose and the anticipation, the buildup, that this song uses? Awesome.

I don't really have anything to say about the game. Just wanted to get a shout-out to a Steve favorite that everyone overlooks on the "most underrated songs ever" list.

Finally ...

* "I never meant to start a war!
You know I never want to hurt you!
Don't even know what we're fighting for,
Why does love always feel like a battlefield?
(A battlefield? a battlefield?)
Why does love always feel like a battlefield?
(A battlefield? a battlefield?)

Guess you'd better go and get your armor!
(Get your armor! get your armor!)

I never meant to start a war!
You know I never meant to hurt you!
Don't even know what we're fighting for!
Why does love always feel like a battlefield?
(A battlefield? A battlefield?) ..."

-- Jordin Sparks, "Battlefield".

Here's where next week, we turn this part of the predictions into a motivational speech to turn Arrowhead into a battlefield. For this week, I'll just say, the Chiefs had better have loaded up on some armor. We're gonna need it.

at Ravens 24, Chiefs (+13) 21, in a game that is far, far closer than anyone has any reason to suspect it will be. I believe in this team. Sunday, M&T Stadium turns into a battlefield involving the team I love. Bring it Ravens. Effing bring it.