It isn't football season until I've logged my five page printout of my season predictions for the National ... Football League!
Every year I get asked the same few questions, so here are some blanket answers before I unveil the highly anticipated Steve predictions.
1. Yes, I truly do predict every single game.
2. Yes, I truly do analyze every playoff tiebreaker to determine who gets in.
3. Yes, I am currently single. But I do not live in my mommy's basement.
3. Yes, I really did accurately nail the New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears in the 2006 NFC Championship Game, and yes, I did accurately nail the 2000 New York Giants' run to the Super Bowl. Other than that, you're best advised to bet the opposite of what I predict.
Let's get started.
NFC East:
1. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
3. New York Giants 10-6
4. Washington Redskins 8-8.
Reasoning / Rationale: This was one of five -- 5! -- tiebreaker scenarios I had to figure out for the NFC playoff picture. Oy. And this one literally came down to the final tiebreaker, total points scored. I have the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants all at 10-6, all 2-2 head to head, all 3-3 in the division, all 7-5 in the conference, all 9-5 in common opponent games. The Eagles have the best offense, so I gave them the nod for the division. Any of these three teams is capable of winning this division, or of finishing dead last. Because the Redskins might be the best last-place team in football. A break here or there for the 'Skins, and they might win this division. I freaking love the NFC East.
NFC North:
1. Minnesota Vikings 12-4
2. Green Bay Packers 12-4
3. Chicago Bears 10-6
4. Detroit Lions 3-13.
Reasoning / Rationale: I have the Vikings winning this on conference record tiebreaker, 10-2 vs 9-3 for the Packers. Another division with three really good teams in it, any of whom are capable of winning this thing. I can't believe the Favre led team won this thing when I ran the schedules. I honestly expected Chicago to win this thing. Another fun division in which matchups with every team other than the hopeless Lions is must-see television.
NFC South:
1. Atlanta Falcons 10-6
2. New Orleans Saints 10-6
3. Carolina Panthers 6-10
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14.
Reasoning / Rationale: I have the Falcons over the Saints due to divisional record. Namely, I expect the Falcons to win in Tampa, while I have the Bucs upsetting the Saints at home. Both teams figure to be in the 9-11 win range, and in the mix for a wildcard berth at worst. I think the Panthers are going to fall this year. I think Delhomme is done, the schedule is tough, and ownership seems to be in a state of flux thanks to not one but both club presidents resigning earlier this week. The Bucs ... yikes. I'm not a fan of Josh Freeman, I'm not a believer in Raheem Morris, and you sure as all hell don't kick a proven GM like Bruce Allen to the curb without having a legitimate successor for him. Long, long season upcoming at the Fake Sombrero.
NFC West:
1. San Francisco 49ers 9-7
2. Seattle Seahawks 9-7
3. Arizona Cardinals 9-7
4. St. Louis Rams 0-16.
Reasoning / Rationale: Another tiebreaker that came down to points scored, between Seattle and San Francisco (I project both at 7-5 in the conference, but the Cardinals at 6-6 in the conference to eliminate them). I chose the 49ers because I just don't believe in this Seahawks team. I love Jim Mora Jr. He was the right hire. But so many players coming back from injuries, and they're all aging veterans. The 49ers have the younger squad. They get the nod. The Cardinals schedule is brutal, and they're going to miss Todd Haley a lot. The Rams are the worst team in professional football. Except for maybe Cleveland.
NFC Playoffs:
1. Minnesota Vikings (via conf record tiebreaker over Packers)
2. Atlanta Falcons (via divisional record over Saints, head to head win over Eagles)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (via points scored tiebreaker over Cowboys and Giants)
4. San Francisco 49ers (via points scored tiebreaker over Seahawks)
5. Green Bay Packers
6. New Orleans Saints (via conference record over Cowboys and Bears).
3 Eagles over 6 Saints
4 49ers over 5 Packers
1 Vikings over 4 49ers
3 Eagles over 2 Falcons
3 Eagles over 1 Vikings
NFC Champion: Philadelphia Eagles.
AFC East:
1. New England Patriots 12-4
2. Buffalo Bills 10-6
3. Miami Dolphins 9-7
4. New York Jets 4-12.
Reasoning / Rationale: If Tom Brady starts 12 games, the Patriots win the division via tiebreakers. If he starts 14, they win by at least a game. If he starts all 16, they finish at least two clear of the field. Clearly, I think Brady plays 16. Seriously, consider all the Patriots have done this decade. In 9 seasons, they have:
* 8 winning seasons, all consecutively (2001-2008).
* 6 playoff berths.
* 6 division championships.
* 5 AFC Title Game appearances.
* 4 AFC Championships.
* 3 Super Bowl Championships.
Unbelievable. I project at least the first four of those categories will have to be updated.
The Bills surprised me at 10-6. I initially thought they'd finish 3rd, but the schedule is manageable, and Jauron usually has his team in position entering December to reach the playoffs. (Which they usually fail to do). Miami will take a step back, but will still be in the mix for a wildcard berth. The Jets ... ugh. The Mike Tannenbaum Reign of Error cannot end soon enough. Until the Jets get a real GM, its going to continue to be a struggle to root them on.
AFC North:
1. Baltimore Ravens 13-3
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
3. Cincinnati Bengals 5-11
4. Cleveland Browns 3-13.
Reasoning / Rationale: Its a coin flip between the Ravens and Steelers. Total coin flip. I think the Ravens D knows its on a last-gasp kind of mission to get back to the Super Bowl. The veterans know this might be it, and I think that'll be enough to get them one more win than the Steelers. The Bengals are not a team I take credibly, and the Browns are the worst team in the AFC personnel wise.
AFC South:
1. Houston Texans 11-5
2. Tennessee Titans 10-6
3. Indianapolis Colts 8-8
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13.
Reasoning / Rationale: This is more an indictment of the Jim Caldwell hire than showing my faith in Houston or Tennessee. Jim Caldwell was an awful, awful hire. It was Ray Rhodes, Rich Kotite level bad. If Bill Polian is half the GM I think he is, he pulls the plug on Caldwell after the Colts first non-10 plus win season since 2001. I like the Texans slightly better than the Titans, because I think DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams and Dunta Robinson are better at their positions than anyone on the Titans is at theirs (all apologies to Keith Bullock). I also think the Texans 3rd place schedule gives them the edge to get past Tennessee (the Titans visit the Steelers and host the Chargers; the Texans visit the Bengals and host the raiders). The Colts will fight, like Rhodes' 1999 Packers squad, but will collapse when it counts. The Jaguars blew it with the QB decision, and now get to pay the price.
AFC West:
1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
2. San Diego "Super" Chargers 8-8
3. denver broncos 5-11
3. oakland raiders 3-13.
Reasoning / Rationale: yes, I am a total homer. Yes, I have been drinking. Yes, I have inhaled. No, I have not lost my mind.
Why CAN'T the Chiefs win this division? Every year some team comes from nowhere to stun the NFL world. Usually those teams have three common traits:
1. a change in team leadership.
2. play in an awful division, or a division with no clear cut favorite.
3. a new quarterback looking to prove himself.
The Chiefs fit all three. New GM, new head coach / offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator. Completely new attitude. Sweeping change the likes of which we haven't seen since 1989, when Marty Schottenheimer, Carl Peterson, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Herm Edwards, and others arrived to completely change the culture of the franchise. You can't argue the AFC West is anything but awful. Its wretched. And Matt Cassel, I believe in this guy. More specifically, Scott Pioli and Todd Haley believe in this guy. Pioli built the Team of the Decade in New England (along with Bill Belichick). Haley developed Tony Romo in Dallas, made Keyshawn Johnson a legitimate top threat with the Jets, and resurrected Kurt Warner's career in Arizona. The dude can flat out coach.
As opposed to his biggest obstacle standing between the Chiefs and a division title, the Chargers. Norv Turner, I know I've said this before, but I wouldn't trust that guy to walk the dog outside to take a whiz. I guarantee you the poor puppy would get crushed by a semi while Norv just stands there, clueless grim look on his face, biting on a pencil.
denver ... yikes. I know I hate that team and everything affiliated with it with an unhealthy passion, but holy God, has ANY team had a worse offseason? You fire a Hall of Fame caliber coach, and replace him with a guy who immediately so p*sses off his two best offensive weapons that one whines his way out of town, and the other gets suspended for wrecking a walk-through in practice. oakland, well, God love them, they're oakland. I used to have a t-shirt back in college that said something like "UT and A&M: United by Hate ... And the fact that Tech isn't a real school!" Same deal here, "Chiefs and donkeys: United by Hate ... and the fact that the raiders aren't a real team!"
AFC Playoffs:
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. New England Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Tennessee Titans (via head to head tiebreaker over Bills).
3 Texans over 6 Titans
5 Steelers over 4 Chiefs
1 Ravens over 5 Steelers
2 Patriots over 3 Texans
1 Ravens over 2 Patriots
AFC Champion: Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl XLIV: Eagles 27, Ravens 21.
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Chiefs Game by Game Predictions:
at Ravens: L 14-24.
vs raiders: W 21-3.
at Eagles: L 10-20.
vs Giants: L 16-19 (OT).
vs Cowboys: W 31-20.
at Redskins: W 24-23.
vs Chargers: W 27-14.
bye
at Jaguars: W 30-10.
at raiders: W 13-10.
vs Steelers: L 27-34.
at Chargers: L 24-27.
vs broncos: W 44-9.
vs Bills: W 24-10.
vs Browns: W 31-0.
at Bengals: W 24-19 (clinches division)
at broncos: L 3-27.
vs Steelers: L 13-28.
I plan to post the rest of my thoughts on the Chiefs before kickoff on Sunday. Gotta give you something to come back for.
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