the week nine predictions

Last Week SU: 5-8-0
Season to Date SU: 67-49-0

Last Week ATS: 6-7-0
Season to Date ATS: 57-58-1

Last Week Upset / Week: Didn’t really see that big of a defeat coming.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 4-4
This Week’s Upset / Week: I’m still 3-1 riding these guys. I love them at home this week. One more time: broncos (+3) over Steelers.

Bonus Picks:

I’m in a pick pool for college football. Two weeks ago, I scored 70/78, missing only Clemson / Miami … and finished 23rd for the week. That’s insane. Anyways, here’s my picks for this week (all are straight up, with points assigned):

* Michigan over Purdue (6 points)
* Arkansas over South Carolina (1 point)
* Kansas over kansas state (8 points)
* NC State over Maryland (9 points)
* Texas A&M over Colorado (2 points)
* UCLA over Washington (5 points)
* Penn State over Ohio State (11 points)
* LSU over Alabama (7 points)
* Oregon State over Cal (3 points)
* Florida State over Clemson (6 points)
* Nebraska over Oklahoma (4 points)
* Houston over Tulsa (10 points)

Wish me luck; I could really use the $180 pot.

The Professional Prognostications:

The thing about this NFL (and NCAA) season that has struck me so far, is how many times I’ve counted a team out, written the obituary … and they rise from the dead with a huge win.

Consider just in the NFL this year alone:

* Miami opens 0-2, drops to 1-3 after getting destroyed in San Diego, after losing starting QB Chad Pennington for the season … and beats the Jets at the last second, fights unbeaten New Orleans to the wire, and then beats the Jets again at the last second, setting up this week’s huge showdown in Foxboro with the division leading Patriots.

Do the Dolphins have another upset in them? Can they fight back to .500 at the season’s midpoint? If they can, look at what’s up next: vs Tampa, at Carolina, at Buffalo. No matter the outcome Sunday, you have to figure Miami gets back to 6-5 for New England’s return trip on a Sunday night in early December.

The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 in Foxboro, including last year’s 4 touchdown ass whipping that jump-started their AFC East division champion season. I say they jump-start their stretch drive this weekend. Dolphins (+10 ½) 24, at Patriots 20.

* The Texans open 0-2 at home, 2-3 overall … and now sit at 5-3 headed into arguably the biggest game in franchise history, at unbeaten division leading Indianapolis. The Texans are 1-13 against the Colts all time, but usually play them close (a pair of field goal losses a year ago). Smells like the pattern continues. at Colts 27, Texans (+9) 24.

* The Panthers get demolished at home by four touchdowns to open the season. They follow that performance up by dropping two more on the road to fall to 0-3. After last week’s upset in the desert, they’re back to 3-4, 3-1 since the bye. And yet, the Panthers are the biggest spread on the board, a 13 point dog in the Superdome against the Saints.

What makes this line even more baffling, is that Panthers coach John Fox is 7-0 in the Superdome. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme also is unbeaten in the Superdome, as both the Panthers and Saints quarterback. The Saints certainly looked beatable on Monday night, as the Falcons gave them everything they could handle before falling by seven.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, all good streaks eventually come to an end. I fear, for the Panthers, its going to come to a crashing, train-wreck type of a halt. at Saints (-13) 45, Panthers 13.

* The Ravens opened 3-0 … then promptly fell to 3-3, before righting the ship last week with a big win over the previously unbeaten denver broncos. That game merely began one of the most brutal five game stretches I can recall a team facing: at Cincinnati (5-2), at Cleveland (1-7), vs Indianapolis (7-0), vs Pittsburgh (5-2), at Green Bay (4-3). That’s four playoff contenders, and a roadie at a hated rival, a hated rival with two weeks and a day to prepare, which is never a given no matter how down they are. After that stretch, they still have to go to Pittsburgh, as well host the Bears (4-3). Nothing will be easy for these guys down the stretch.

Having said that, the Bengals have to be one of the shockers of the season so far. Tied for the AFC North lead at 5-2, with victories already in hand over Pittsburgh and Baltimore. This might be the biggest game on the board this week, in that the Bengals could all but bury the Ravens divisional hopes, essentially going 3 up with 8 to go with a win. The Ravens, meanwhile, could create a three way tie for first with a win, and they still have both games with Pittsburgh remaining.

Tough call, but when in doubt, go with your gut. Ravens (-3) 31, at Bengals 27.

* Speaking of having their backs to the wall, the 4-3 Chargers at the 5-3 Giants everyone! The Giants looked like the best team in football early on, opening up 5-0. In the last three weeks though, they’ve lost by 21 in New Orleans, by 23 in Philly, and lost at home to an undermanned Cardinals team. The Chargers have been their typical “Stanley Roper” coached selves. They’ve beaten the bad teams, usually by healthy margins … and have been rolled by the three playoff contenders they’ve faced (Baltimore and denver at home; Pittsburgh on the road). Both teams have a solid offense, a shaky defense, and decent special teams. The difference, I feel, is on the sideline. Tom Coughlin or Norv Turner. Not a tough decision. at Giants 31, Chargers (+4 ½) 30.

Before moving on to the three remaining interesting matchups, let’s knock the crappy ones (save for the Chiefs matchup) out of the way.

* at Falcons (-9) 45, Redskins 10.
* Packers (-9 ½) 45, Buccaneers 0.
* at Seahawks (-10) 34, Lions 13.
* at 49ers (-4 ½) 41, Titans 3.

OK, back to decent football.

* The Cardinals visit the Bears on Sunday, and it’s a battle of 4-3 teams that are all over the board. The Cards opened 0-2, yet sit atop the NFC West right now. The Bears opened 3-1, but since the bye they’ve lost in Atlanta, got rolled in Cincinnati by 30 plus, and briefly righted the ship against the horrible Browns last Sunday. The Cards have a much larger margin for error, given how awful their division is. The Bears, with a loss, fall three behind Minnesota, likely fall one behind Green Bay (with the Packers holding tiebreaker), and check out the remaining schedule: at SF, vs Philly, at Minnesota, vs St. Louis, vs Green Bay, at Baltimore, vs Minnesota, at Detroit. Needless to say, it would behoove the Bears to win this one. at Bears (-3) 31, Cardinals 24.

* Both prime time games this week are epic showdowns, the kind you wish were airing in December, but you’ll take anytime you can get them.

The Cowboys are surging, having won 3 straight and 4 out of 5 since opening JerryWorld with a tough loss to the Giants. The Eagles are tied with the Cowboys atop the NFC East at 5-2, and are coming off an ass whipping of the Giants. The winner of this game takes a huge leg up in the race for the NFC East championship and potential bye in the first round. These two meet again in the regular season’s final week, but if Philly doesn’t win this week, it might not matter. Dallas still has three “layup” games left: two against the Redskins, as well as Thanksgiving against the raiders. The Eagles have a far more difficult schedule – four of their next five are on the road, all against playoff contenders (at Chargers, at Bears, vs Redskins, at Falcons, at Giants), and their last three are vs 49ers, vs broncos, at Cowboys. There’s only one sure fire win in there. Yikes.

Meanwhile, on Monday night in denver, the upstart broncos host the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers in a game that could have huge playoff ramifications. Sadly, it doesn’t look like it’ll be snowing, because that’s just about the only way this game could get even better on paper. This is the first of three huge home games for the donkeys in November – they host San Diego on the 22nd, and then host the Giants on Thanksgiving night. The Steelers, depending on the outcome of this game and the Ravens / Bengals, could be all alone in first place, or could be in third place, by the time this week is over.

My way of saying … give me both home teams. at Eagles (-3) 30, Cowboys 23; at broncos (+3) 16, Steelers 10.

* Finally, the Chiefs prediction.

For the Jaguars, this is a big game. They currently sit 3-4, but their November / early December is very negotiable (vs Chiefs, at Jets, vs Bills, at 49ers, vs Texans). There’s no reason they can’t be 7-5 or 8-4 entering the stretch run.

For the Chiefs, this is simply a game to try to set a tone for the second half of the season. Not much went right in the first half. The Chiefs are 1-6. They’re coming off a 30 point loss at home. Their best running back is suspended for this one, and currently faces a petition signed by 26,000 angry fans and counting urging management to permanently sit him.

The Chiefs have only beaten the Jaguars twice in their history. A meaningless week 16 game in 2001 between two teams going nowhere … and the game that ultimately determined the final AFC wildcard team, the season finale in 2006. Every other matchup, the Jaguars have won. I don’t expect that trend to stop. at Jaguars (-6 ½) 28, Chiefs 20.