week 15 picks: moment of truth sunday

"I was wondering how you're feeling --
I thought I saw you kneeling,
And holding your gut last night.

It looked like you were praying,
But I heard someone saying,
You had been in an awful fight.

You get the worst of it every time.
Lashing out with no reason or rhyme.
To loose all this rage, at so tender an age,
Little baby growing up in a rat cage.

Are you ready for the fallout?
Who you gonna call out?
When does it finally comes to blows?

I think that you're forgetting
The blood that you've been letting,
Has a price on it noone knows.

You may be suffering in your sleep.
You may be getting in way too deep.
And you may not care, for advice that I share --
In one ear and out the other ..."

-- "Are You Ready for the Fallout" by Fastball. Merry Chrismukkah fellow Chiefs fans! The team we love has given us everything we could have asked for -- meaningful football in this blessed holiday season. Now it's up to the Fine 53 to "save the date" for January 8th or 9th at the First Church of Arrowhead ...

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The "Don't Matter One Damned Bit to Chiefs Fans" Game Predictions:

* Falcons 24, at Seahawks (+6) 21. Seattle can lose it's next two (vs Falcons / at Bucs), and still host the Rams in a winner-take-all showdown to close out the season. How geeked has NBC gotta be over flexing two 6-9 teams into the prime time slot!

* Cardinals (+1 1/2) 3, Panthers 0. Believe it or not ... the Arizona "Super" Cardinals could control their own destiny after Sunday's games. From 3-9 to the playoffs. You gotta love the NFC West!

* at Bengals (-1) 24, Browns 20. Bengals are due for a win.

* at Cowboys (-6) 41, Redskins 10. I am thoroughly enjoying the hellish season God has given to mike shanahan. Losing because of a botched snap on an extra point? Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy.

* Eagles (+3) 31, at Giants 24. Giants are not making the playoffs. They're losing Sunday to the Vicks, they're going to get rolled in Lambeau next week, and their finale at FedEx will be meaningless to both teams.

* at Patriots (no line) 35, Packers 24. I bet Rodgers plays, but it won't be enough.

* at Bucs (-4) 24, Lions 17. Lions pulled their huge upset last week. They can go back to being the league's welcome mat again now.

* Texans (+3) 24, at Titans 20. Yawn.

* Bears (no line) 24, at Vikings 13. Having tailgated in Minnesota in mid-December a few years ago ... I cannot even imagine how insanely cold this game is going to be. There isn't a shot in hell I'd attend this game. My lasting image of that roadie to the Metrodome was (a) drunk Vikings fans stealing my Santa hat and beating on my head like a drum, and (b) walking back to the car in -11 temperatures, through a foot of snow on the uncleared sidewalks. You couldn't pay me to live in those hellish conditions. In fact, I distinctly remember saying to Gregg when we got to the car that "I will never again step foot anywhere that is colder than Kansas City". Go figure ... I've been to Milwaukee in January three times since then. The lesson? Three fold. (1) I insanely love the NBA. (2) It's cold up north at this time of year. And (3) I'm full of more crap than a port-o-potty most of the time ...

The "Games of Interest to Chiefs Fans" Wishful Guesses:

* 49ers (+9) 24, at Chargers 20. Hey, we've gotten an even more ridiculous, improbable upset out of these guys before. Plus, for my own sanity, this has to happen. Make Sunday meaningless, 49ers! Do your part!!! (Which, of course, means San Diego wins 41-3 tonight, as I drown myself in vodka tonics at whatever bar I watch this thing at. Thank you once again, Time Warner, for refusing to carry the NFL Network. Here's hoping an extra lump of coal and a heap of bad news is in your earnings report this Chrismukkah season for that decision).

* Saints (+2 1/2) 31, at Ravens 10. I want Baltimore to open the playoffs. This is a fatally flawed team.

* at Colts (-5) 24, Jaguars 20. Winner likely wins the AFC South. Should be a great game between two teams that usually stage classics when they face each other.

* at Dolphins (-6) 24, Bills 10. Dolphins should be 9-6 going to New England to close the season, with Detroit on tap next week.

* at raiders (-6) 31, broncos 3. As always, if the terrorists detonate a dirty bomb in oakland during this game, it is not a national tragedy, it is a cause for celebration.

* at Steelers (-5) 30, Jets 9. (tom petty voice) well they're free ... free falling! Yeah, free ... free falling!

The Chiefs Commentary and Prognostication:

I don't know why I did it ... but despite being told how bad the beatdown was, despite getting at least two "don't even bother, just delete it" texts from buddies who knew I was stuck at the family get-together ... I did watch Sunday's debacle over the last couple of nights.

And rarely have I been as p*ssed off at the "performance" of a Chiefs quarterback.

The last time I remember truly feeling rage, absolute rage, at the performance of our quarterback, was Steve Bono in the season finale in 1996. Hate to bring it up, but that's really the only performance of the last twenty years that I can compare Brodie Croyle's day to. You might remember that 1996 finale. It was a "win and we're in" game at Buffalo, who was playing for absolutely nothing (they were locked into the three seed as AFC East champs). Because of injury to Rich Gannon, Marty had to start the benched Bono ... who promptly tanked the game. Bono didn't even try. He didn't want to be there, he was still (justifably) p*ssed off at
getting benched three weeks earlier, and decided to get back at Marty and the Chiefs braintrust the only way he could: by screwing up.

Bono went 14/28 that day, for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and also coughed up the ball twice while dropping back to pass. He delivered a clunker for the ages, his final parting shot at the regime that cut the legs out from under him.

I remember watching that game at my buddy Jason's house, and I can still remember how enraged I was when it was all said and done.

(Side note: I can only remember three games we watched at Jason's mom's house. The 1996 Bills tank job by Bono. The 1994 Monday nighter in denver, that I stormed out of after Marcus Allen fumbled, elway drove the donkeys, and scored on a play where they only had 10 guys on the field. 10 vs 11, and elway walks into the end zone untouched. I hate that d*ckhead. Thankfully, we rallied to win that one. And the worst one of all, the 1993 donkeys game, when the Chiefs led by double digits the whole way, only to have that d*ckhead complete a cross body, 70 yard bomb to ricky nattiel, and shannon sharpe scored a couple plays later to put denver ahead late in the game. The lesson? (1) john elway is a d*ckhead whose tombstone will someday turn a lovely shade of yellow after I'm done whizzing on it. And (2) don't watch games at Jason's mom's house, bad things happen).

Sunday's "effort" by Brodie Croyle evoked memories of Bono's tank job. I sat there in abject rage by the third quarter, when the defense was forcing turnovers, giving us a chance, and Croyle either (highly unlikely) refused to throw the ball, or (bango!) was so scared to be on the field, that he just gave up. Croyle's performance on Sunday was pathetic. If I was Scott Pioli, I'd have cut his ass on the walk up the tunnel, and told him to find his own way back to Kansas City. Even watching it 48 hours later, I was getting all worked up. Brodie Croyle's performance on Sunday was undefendable. Even to me, and I dare say there was no bigger supporter of Croyle than me. I'm the guy who clapped for three straight minutes when we drafted him in 2006. I'm the guy who called for Croyle to start from day one in 2007. I'm the guy who was hacked Croyle didn't get a fair shot last year to win the job. I liked Brodie Croyle.

But Sunday was so utterly inexcusable, so pathetic of a performance, that I'm through with him. You can blame it on the offensive game plan (which was a stink bomb that would clean out the room), you can blame it on the receivers (Bowe returning to his drop-the-pass ways), you can blame it on the complete lack of a running game.

Or you can conclude as I did, that Brodie Croyle wanted no part of that game, was scared sh*tless to be on the field, and drove the final nail in the coffin of his once promising career here in Kansas City.

(Because once you've lost me, I mean, how do you rally from that? I'm the biggest homer I know. I'm more in the tank for the Chiefs, than the average MSNBC anchor is in the tank for President Obama and the progressive agenda. And I say that affectionately -- I watch at least two hours of MSNBC every night, and I strongly support the progressive agenda. Yet even I can admit MSNBC is in the tank for this President. My point being – if I can't stomach you being on the Chiefs active roster, how do you recover from that? You don't).

Because of Brodie's horrendous, career-killing afternoon, the Chiefs margin for error is once again zero. But, despise Brodie's pathetic performance, we still control our own destiny.

For the Chiefs, the path to the playoffs is simple. Win every game left on the schedule, and you're in. Beginning Sunday, in St. Louis, against the fellow first place Rams.

The Chiefs and Rams have played four times since St. Louis pimped itself out and stole the Rams from Los Angeles. The Chiefs beat them in the Dome in 1997 by a touchdown. They beat them in the Dome in 2006 in a game remembered best for my epic post-game recap meltdown about the announcing. The Chiefs boatraced them at Arrowhead in 2002 by a 49-10 score that effectively ended the Rams season and potential dynasty.

And my favorite game of the series, when the defending Super Bowl champion, 6-0 on the season "Greatest Show on Turf" was (emmitt smith voice) blowed out at Arrowhead in 2000. (My favorite memory of that game? Three fold. (1) Gregg yelling at Kurt Warner before the game "you're not finishing (the game) today!" Warner left with a broken hand in the second quarter. (2) Bracey Walker blocking a punt, and Mike Cloud taking it to the house. Not just because that was unquestionably the sole highlight of Mike Cloud's career ... but I miss Bracey Walker. Nobody was cooler at the Players Entrance back in the day than that guy. Of course, given that the only people who knew who the hell Bracey Walker was were me and Gregg, that might explain why he was so cool towards us. And (3) Gunther caught on the sidelines in a four-letter-word tirade at the entire defense after they allowed the Rams to score a touchdown, which cut the lead to 27-7. Gun's explanation: "I expected a shutout today". God bless that guy, he actually expected to shut the Rams out. No wonder he was a disaster as a head coach).

So at least history says the Chiefs have a fighting chance. But for the Rams, this game is every bit as important. Yes, a loss doesn't destroy their season -- if the Rams win their last two, they're in as division champs no matter what Seattle or San Francisco does. But a win, and the Rams likely are looking to clinch next Sunday, and make their finale in Seattle meaningless.

I believe there are three keys to this game. First, the crowd. I fully expect at least half the Dome to be filled with Chiefs fans (as it was in 1997 and 2006). We need to take over that place. I wish I was going. I wish I could be there to witness this game. But, when I travel to Chiefs games, we lose, plain and simple. I refuse to destroy this season out of selfish ambitions, so I'll be watching this one on the TV somewhere.

But for the Chiefs fans who are going, take over the Dome. Turn it into Arrowhead East. Be loud. Do your part. I think the sight of the "home crowd" being negated will rattle the Rams. If you doubt that, think back to last year at Arrowhead, when the joint was (at least) 40 percent Cowboys fans, and (at least) 60 percent Steelers fans. It was embarrassing. Let's pay it forward in St. Louis on Sunday.

Second, the offensive game plan. (steve sighing in disgust). I don't know why Chiefs offensive coordinators do this, but all of them do for some reason, save for one (Paul Hackett). For some reason, when the backup comes in, they tear whole sections out of the playbook, and go to a vanilla, run-heavy, conservative mindset. And I hate it. If your backup can't max out the playbook, why the f*ck is he on the roster? I get that he's a backup for a reason, but for crying out loud, if you have so little faith in him that you literally ignore whole chunks of the playbook out of a lack of confidence in the guy, why is he on the roster?

I hope Cassel goes. But if it's Croyle, then goddammit, open the offense up. Don't handicap Brodie Croyle before the game begins. As much as I ripped Croyle above for his horrendous performance on Sunday, Chuck Weis and Todd Haley deserve a sh*t ton of blame as well. They coached scared. That cannot occur again, or else this promising, "hell yes I paid my $106 for my wildcard ticket, and I've already set aside the $180 for the title game!" season goes down the sh*tter barring a miraculous upset down the stretch of the Chargers.

(Or the Jets losing out, which not only is completely logical -- every Jets fan is walking around in a state of panic right now knowing how logical that outcome is. Believe me, I know. At Steelers / at Bears / vs Bills, who are going to spring a huge upset on someone, and I doubt it's New England in two weeks. I mean, how panicked would the New Meadowlands be if the Jets enter that one at 9-6, L4, needing a win? Plus, now we've invoked the wrath of the Football and Decent Sportsmanship Gods with Sal Alosi's insane knee decision last week. We're f*cked. It's 2008 all over again -- opening 8-3, then dropping 4 of 5, including the finale to a "just glad to be here" Dolphins team. I'm telling you, if you think Chiefs fans are worked up right now, you should see Jets fans. (dick vitale voice) It's panic city baby! With a capital P!)

Third, and this is the key ... can this defense finally stop someone from running roughshod over them? Here's the ugly numbers from the last seven weeks:

at San Diego (L 0-31): 43 rushes, 207 yards, 4.8 avg.
vs denver (W 10-6): 23 rushes, 161 yards, 7.0 avg.
at Seattle (W 42-24): 12 rushes, 20 yards, 1.7 avg.
vs Arizona (W 31-13): 20 rushes, 101 yards, 5.0 avg.
at denver (L 29-49): 31 rushes, 153 yards, 4.9 avg.
at oakland (L 20-23): 26 rushes, 112 yards, 4.3 avg.
vs Bills (W 13-10): 33 rushes, 137 yards, 4.2 avg.

Average: 27 rushes, 127 yards, 4.7 avg.

If you remove the outlier, the Seahawks win (where the Chiefs got up big early, and the Seahawks had to start throwing the ball to catch up), it shows how horrendous the Chiefs run D has been in the last two months:

Average Without Seattle: 29 rushes, 145 yards, 5.0 avg.

You aren't going to beat anyone worth a damn if they're running the ball that often and that successfully. To put into simple terms how dominating a 30 rush afternoon would be, figure the average NFL play takes 30 seconds from snap to the next snap. If you're running it 30 times, you've bled 15 minutes off the clock, minimum. That's 15 minutes that the defense isn't getting off the field, that the offense isn't having the chance to score. That's crippling.

(Or, in an even easier way to understand it, that's exactly what the Chiefs have done in most of their wins this year -- jump out to an early lead, then pound the football, bleed the clock, and shorten the game. It's highly effective, I'd say).

The Rams have a pretty damned good ground game, led by Steven Jackson, and made even more effective by the rapid development of Sam Bradford. You can't gang up on the run because Bradford can beat you. Somehow, the Chiefs front seven HAS to stop the run on Sunday. Specifically, the defensive line has to plug the gaps, and shut down the rush at the point of attack. The key to this game, the biggest factor, I think, is how effective Ron Edwards, Tyson Jackson, Glenn Dorsey, Shaun Smith, and Wallace Gilberry are in overpowering the Rams offensive line. If they play to their capabilities, if they get the job done, the Chiefs should win this game with ease no matter who is under center for them, be it Cassel, Croyle, Palko, or some dude they plucked from Lot G in the pregame. If the defensive line is routinely shoved around, though, if Steven Jackson is at 100 yards midway through the third quarter, then the potential for another disasterous road performance is there.

My guess? Cassel starts. The Chiefs fans negate any home field the Rams might otherwise have had. I expect a run-heavy offense once again, because the Rams defense can be pushed around ... but I also expect Chuck Weis to come to his senses, and take his shots down the field. As much as Chuck Weis frustrates the crap out of me, I'll give him this: he never makes the same mistake twice. The Chiefs will never again neuter their quarterback like they did last week, at least as long as Chuck Weis is calling the shots. (And since Todd Haley is the one who'd overrule him, and Coach Haley is anything but a conservative play caller, I think it's safe to say the pathetic game plan from last week is dead and buried).

I expect this one to play out like the Jaguars game, honestly. A fun, tight contest for the better part of three quarters ... and then the better team separates itself to win by a deceivingly comfortable margin.

Since there's still no line due to Cassel's status ... Chiefs (no line) 31, at Rams 17.

And when we win this game, wherever I wind up watching this thing at, don't be shocked if I pull a classic Steve, and sprint out the front door, run out into the middle of the street, start fist pumping, screaming "woo! yes! woo!" and then calmly walk back inside, look around the room, take a huge chug from my libation, and with a huge sh*t-eating grin on my face, ask the obvious:

"Playoffs?!?! Don't talk about ... playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?" :)