Friday, January 9, 2009

the divisional round picks

I might not have "The Coin" with me ... but 4 for 4 last week, both straight up and against the final spread.

As always, these are for recreational purposes only.

* 6 Ravens at 1 Titans: these two staged an old school classic earlier this year, with the Titans winning in Baltimore 13-10. This will be the third postseason meeting for these two relocation teams.

The first, in the 2000 playoffs, saw Brian Billick deliver one of the greatest postgame speeches of all time. "You go in, screaming like a crazed banshee, and ask where's the son of a bitch!" I miss Billick. Someone needs to hire that guy. The Ravens won the game, and went on to win the Super Bowl.

The second, in the 2003 playoffs, saw Tennessee go into Baltimore and win. So the home team is 0-2 in their postseason series.

I see no reason why that will change this weekend. The Ravens defense, barely, outlasts the Titans. Ravens (+2 1/2) 16, at Titans 14.

* 4 Cardinals at 2 Panthers. Good Lord, THIS is the prime time game?!?! I get that the rotation says this year the NFC gets the divisional round prime timer and the AFC gets the championship round ... but really? You put THIS in prime time, instead of Eagles / Giants?

That was my initial reaction. Only ... and the Sports Guy pointed this out in his picks, this slot, the Saturday prime time contest, almost always produces something crazy. Furthermore, of the last 6 teams that were double digit dogs in the divisional round, 4 covered, and 3 won outright (95 Packers, 95 Colts, 05 Chargers; the 07 Jags covered in Foxboro).

So there's that factor. Then there's the regular season contest, a game Arizona had in the bag until some late shenanigans by the Panthers led them to a come from behind 27-23 victory.

I don't think the Cardinals get blown out. In fact, I'm predicting the unbelivable to occur. Cardinals (+10) 34, at Panthers 31.

* 6 Eagles at 1 Giants. I know everyone expects this to be a classic contest. The two NFC East rivals each won at the other's team's stadium this year. Combined score of the two games: Eagles 51, Giants 50.

So like everyone thinking the Cardinals will get rolled ... I think everyone's wrong here. This one won't be close. This one is blowout city.

Behind a rested, healthy Brandon Jacobs, a confident Eli Manning, and 80,000 fired up fans who've had a month to prep for this revenge game, at Giants (-4 1/2) 41, Eagles 6.

* 4 Chargers at 2 Steelers. At least the NFL saved the best for last.

I wish they could move this bad boy into prime time. This game is going to be a classic. The regular season game was. Arguably the greatest gambling game of all time, as in the span of 10 minutes you went from a last second miraculous Steelers cover ... to having the touchdown taken off the board to give the Chargers a one point loss.

(To Mike Pereira admitting the next day that the refs blew it, and the Steelers should have had the touchdown, and the cover. Which was fine by me -- I had the Chargers).

I love this Chargers team. I said last week the winner of Indy and San Diego would go to the Super Bowl, and I stand behind that pick.

Darren Sproles runs for 105, Rivers throws for 200 and a touchdown, and the Chargers front seven does just enough to contain the Steelers rushing attack to escape town with a win.

From 4-8 to hosting the AFC Title Game in the span of 6 weeks. (peter griffin voice) Cracked Magazine. Chargers (+6) 13, at Steelers 6.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

amazing, you called the arizona upset. that's a drunk pick if i've ever seen one

week twelve picks

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