20-29, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
16-31, 199 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
16-25, 149 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
After 3 games: 52-85, 624 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT.
That's not what any reasonable football fan would deem "quality", would we all agree?
If your quarterback posts stat lines like that in the first three games of your season, you're probably going to be (ugh) 1-2 or (gulp) a "once in a generation" play away from 0-3.
You're probably going to have talk radio blowing up on how crappy the QB is, how the team needs to make a change. I mean, this is year two for the guy! He lost 10 games his first season in town! He throws too many interceptions, he's not accurate enough, the team's not winning!
OK, ok, calm down. If you read between the lines, you could figure out who the stat lines above are from, and when they occurred. (The "smart ones" among you would have noticed the "once in a generation play" blast, and immediately been clued in ...)
The stat lines above ... are Trent Green's first three games in 2002.
And yes, the Chiefs were 1-2, the Dwayne Rudd helmet toss / "wait, we lost the dog? Where the hell did Priest go?!?!" miracle finish away from being 0-3.
Here's Green's stat lines in the next 5 games, a stretch that got the Chiefs back to .500 at the bye, in the thick of the AFC West race:
24-34, 328 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, a win over the Dolphins.
23-33, 296 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, a win at the Jets.
17-29, 236 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, a one point defeat at the Chargers.
20-33, 172 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, an overtime defeat to the broncos.
18-30, 208 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, a win over the raiders in the rain.
What changed? What was the catalyst, the jumping off point, to turn Trent Green from being a guy referred to in print at "TrINT", into a franchise quarterback leading (arguably) the greatest offense the NFL has ever seen over the course of a season?
In the words of Coach Vermeil: they took the diapers off.
Here's my beef with how the Chiefs are handling Matt Cassel -- they're handicapping him. The time has come for the offensive staff to take the diapers off, to remove the training wheels, and let Matt Cassel sink or swim.
There's no better time to do this, than in the next three weeks. The Texans secondary is atrocious. Again, the statistics don't lie:
31st in yardage allowed (409.2 yds/game). Only the Redskins have given up more yards ... 5 more.
32nd in pass defense (329.6 yds/game). No other team is yielding even 300 yards / game in the air.
29th in scoring defense (27.2 pts/game). Only the Jags, Cardinals, and Bills are worse.
9 sacks recorded (1.8 sacks/game). Middle of the pack, tied for 11th with a host of teams.
4 interceptions recorded (.8 INT/game). Middle of the pack, tied for 11th with a host of teams.
104.0 average QB rating allowed. Only the Jags and Bills are worse.
11 touchdowns allowed (2.2 TD/game). Only the Jags are worse.
Those are butt ugly statistics. That's approaching the hallowed grounds of "32 Defense" bad.
But the reason why I argue the playbook MUST be opened up, starting this week? The reason why I argue the time to go Air Cassel begins RIGHT NOW? Look at who our next two opponents are. Two teams that are right there at the bottom of the crapper with the Texans.
The Jaguars and the Bills.
I argued last week that we would know come 3:30 on Sunday if the Chiefs were a legitimate threat to win the division and possibly be a factor, at least in the wildcard round. I think the answer to that question is "yes". Defensively, this is the best team the Chiefs have fielded since the 1999 season. Our ground game is outstanding. Our special teams haven't been this clutch since 2003.
The only question mark left ... is at quarterback. What better time to see what you've got, than against 3 of the 4 worst passing defenses in the league?
Think back to 2000. The Chiefs stood at 0-2, coming off a crushing overtime loss in Nashville. Gunther had coached the team the only way he thought they could win up to that point -- solid defense, run the football, don't beat yourself on special teams.
It hadn't worked.
Knowing he had nothing to lose, he opened up the playbook. The result was an aerial assault that would have Chiefs fans growing facial hair for two months via the Grbeard, as the Chiefs would win 5 of 7 to launch themselves back into the thick of the playoff race. For a seven game stretch, Elvis Grbac looked like a potential franchise quarterback:
20-33, 235 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT. at Chiefs 42, Chargers 10.
21-33, 250 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT. Chiefs 23, at donkeys 22.
16-27, 256 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. at Chiefs 24, Seahawks 17.
23-40, 288 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. raiders 20, at Chiefs 17.
18-30, 266 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. at Chiefs 54, Rams 34.
22-35, 342 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT. Chiefs 24, at Seahawks 19.
39-53, 504 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT. at raiders 49, Chiefs 31.
I'm not saying Matt Cassel would post numbers like Grbac did, or like Trent Green did, when the entire playbook was put into play.
What I am saying is that it's about time to find out if he can.
(And for the record -- the gameplan Sunday was flawless, other than that 4th and 2 brain fart. We did exactly what you need to do to win in Indianapolis. But we aren't facing the Colts on Sunday. We're facing a reeling Texans team whose defense is shakier than the epicenter of an earthquake, and then we come home to face an (at best) mediocre Jaguars team, and a Bills team that is a 50/50 prop bet at this point to join the 2008 Lions in winless infamy. NOW is the time to open things up. Starting Sunday).
If the Chiefs don't trust Matt Cassel enough to allow some downfield action against the 31st (Texans), 29th (Bills) and 28th (Jaguars) ranked passing defenses in the league, then we have seriously screwed the pooch regarding the most important position on the field, the most important player on the roster.
For what it's worth, I think the coaching staff has handicapped Cassel so far, on purpose. They knew we'd have to have a flawless plan to beat the Chargers. They knew we'd have to execute perfectly to beat the Colts. The Browns game, our rushing attack was going so well, there was no reason to adjust the game plan. Only in the 49ers game has the coaching staff let Cassel air it out on a regular basis, and the third quarter of that game was not only the best quarter of football Cassel has played in KC, but the best quarter of football the Chiefs have played in 2010 so far.
I have to believe that a coaching staff as talented, smart, and focused as ours is, understands this, and is ready to turn past page 16 and see what's in the tab entitled "vertical game".
But, if the Chiefs don't let Matt Cassel take some shots in the next three weeks, if they continue to play a conservative, close-to-the-vest, let-the-defense-win-it type of game plan, we'll know they've decided Cassel is a lost cause. And we'll know to adjust our expectations of this team's ceiling accordingly ...
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