the week four predictions

Lots of good games this weekend ... but most of them are on Saturday. But hey, Sunday night, its the Rush Limbaugh themed "Family Guy", whose preview on Hulu almost had me in tears from laughing so hard.

And -- DVR alert! -- Monday, 5pm CT, THE best episode ever of "Friday Night Lights" airs on ABC Family. If you've never seen even 0:01 of "Friday Night Lights" before, do yourself a favor, and DVR (or watch live) the episode on Monday, from season one, entitled "Mud Bowl". If you come into it with "clear eyes and full hearts", giving it a fair chance, you'll be hooked by the time Julie tackles Saracen to end things.

OK, on to the picks ...

Last Week SU: 11-5-0
Season to Date SU: 32-16-0

Last Week ATS: 7-9-0
Season to Date ATS: 24-22-2

Last Week Upset / Week: you might get a few more classic "take a f*cking guess" predictions going forward. Especially since the Chiefs figure to be underdogs the next two Sundays -- one of them a series where the home team is 1-4 all time, the other one in a place where the Chiefs surprisingly always play well ... and to be fair, I only pull out the "take a f*cking guess" Chiefs prediction in specific situations. I've only done it 9 times since 2003. In those games, the Chiefs are now 8-1, the only loss being the donkeys game last December, best known for the single worst decision in NFL coaching history.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 1-2-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: I don't want to do this ... because the next three weeks (at Tenn / at Bal / vs Jets) should destroy their season ... but I love, I freaking LOVE, the donkeys at Tennessee this week. So denver (+6 1/2) to win outright in Nashville.

* Ravens (+1 1/2) 16, at Steelers 10.
* donkeys (+6 1/2) 24, at Titans 20.
* Bengals (-3) 31, at Browns 3.
* at Packers (-14 1/2) 34, Lions 13.
* at Saints (-13 1/2) 45, Panthers 3.
* at Falcons 24, 49ers (+7) 20.
* at Rams (+1) 24, Seahawks 20.
* at Bills (+5 1/2) 13, Jets 10.
* Colts 31, at Jaguars (+7) 28.
* at raiders (+3) 34, Texans 21.
* at Chargers (-8 1/2) 45, Cardinals 10.
* Redskins (+5 1/2) 31, at Eagles 20.
* Bears (+4) 24, at Giants 23.
* at Dolphins (+1) 31, Patriots 30.

Enjoy the bye week. Relax, take it easy, do some laundry, catch some NASCAR and college football ... and come back ready for the "stretch run".