the week eleven prognostications

"I think about Paris when I'm high on red wine,
I wish I could jump on a plane.
So many nights I just dream of the ocean,
God I wish I was sailing again.

Oh yesterday's over my shoulder,
So I can't look back for too long.
There's just too much to see waiting in front of me,
And I know that we can't go wrong

With these changes in latitides,
Changes in attitudes,
Nothing remains quite the same.

With all of our cunning,
And all of our running,
If we didn't laugh, we would all go insane.
If we didn't laugh, we would all go insane.
If we weren't all crazy, we would go insane ..."

"Changes in Latitudes" by the great Jimmy Buffett. There's still seven games in front of us folks. Three in the division, three against the woeful NFC West, and a game with huge wildcard ramifications against the Titans. Forget last week, and in the words of Al Gore in the greatest political speech I've ever watched, "let's open up our eyes to see just how broad and wide the horizon has become!" This season is NOT over. It's just getting started!

(And if I'm wrong, and the 2010 season died on the turf of fake mile high last week, well, I've been called crazy and insane many, many, many times before, and nobody laughs at me as much as I laugh at myself ...)

Last Week SU: 8-5-0.
Season to Date SU: 81-62-0.

Last Week ATS: 6-7-0.
Season to Date ATS: 71-66-6.

Last Week Upset / Week: if they'd tied, how would I have scored that?
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS.
This Week's Upset / Week: keep reading. (panicked readership voice) oh no! The Chiefs are favorites this week! Oh no! If the driver is jumping off the bandwagon ... noooooooo! ...

The Non-Chiefs "Fire the Darts and Hope One Hits Bullseye" Attempts:

* at Dolphins (-1) 27, Bears 20. We never should have given up on Tyler Thigpen.
* Bills (+5 1/2) 26, at Bengals 20. When in doubt, take the team that hasn't quit on its coach.
* at Cowboys (-6 1/2) 28, Lions 13. Let the "can Dallas rally to sneak in at 8-8" thoughts begin!
* Texans (+7) 34, at Jets 20. My (fireman ed voice) J E T S Jets Jets Jets! are due for a clunker.
* at Jaguars (-1 1/2) 31, Browns 28. When in doubt, pick the team that keeps winning at the gun.
* at Steelers (-7) 49, raiders 3. (Steve waving Terrible Towel early and often Sunday).
* Ravens (-10) 41, at Panthers 10. Tony Pike's last start was a 50 point beatdown in the Sugar Bowl. This game might be worse than the Bearcats disgraceful finale against Florida last year.
* at Vikings (+3 1/2) 31, Packers 28. Nobody in the NFC is dead until they post their ninth loss.
* at Titans (-7) 35, Redskins 24. Maybe Haynesworth will try this week in his old home.
* Falcons (-3) 45, at Rams 20. The Rams are due for a course correction.
* at 49ers (-3) 31, Bucs 24. As the 49ers climb to within a game of first place.
* at Saints (-12) 45, Seahawks 3. The Seahawks are due for a course correction.
* at Patriots (-3) 31, Colts 27. If this was in Indy, flip the result.
* at Eagles (-3) 34, Giants 20. Fly, Eagles fly, on the road to victory! E A G L E S Eagles!

The Five Star, Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock "Upset of the Year":

Cue the horrific hairdo, the cheezy promo music, the 1-900 number flashing in bright, shiny font at the bottom of your television screen, as I'm standing in front of a horrific looking green-screen shot of Vegas from the late 1980s. Because if I whiff on this prediction, you get the rest of 2010 from me for free! I am staking my reputation as a mediocre gambler on this one baby!

The denver broncos (+9) will absolutely boatrace the San Diego "Super" Chargers on Monday night, to the tune of something like 31-13. The "Upset of the Year". If I don't deliver the goods, you get every single stinking prediction from now through the Super Bowl for absolutely free, I am that confident the donkeys are going to pole-axe the opposition in this game.

Now if I could just get Polar Ice vodka or the St. James Winery to sponsor this segment of the predictions, I'd be set ...

The Chiefs Prediction:

I've been asked "ok Stevo, what do you think is going to happen on Sunday"? And my response is, well, if it was up to me, THIS is pretty much what is going to go down on “Beat a Cardinal Like a Government Mule, and He Ain’t Getting No 40 Acres for His Considerations” Sunday ...

6:00am: my alarm clock goes off. I drop multiple expletives, and say out loud to noone in particular (since it's a virtual certainty I'll be sleeping alone, and since I'm spending my Saturday night with our good friends at the Argosy Casino, Hotel, and Resort, it's probably best if I do come home alone ...) "who in the hell actually gets up this early?!?!"
6:02am: curse again as I trip over my shoes in the dark.
6:05am: let out in my best Verne Lundquist voice "yes sir!" as the forecast comes on my TV screen.
6:08am: curse again as I trip over my shoes in the dark.
6:15am: I shower, dress, and pour myself a screwdriver for the drive to get on the Bus.
6:19am: curse again as I realize I left my ticket next to the computer. Have to go back and get it. Since I’m there and the vodka and oj are easily available, screwdriver number two is poured and begins to be consumed.
7:00am: The Bus arrives at the gate. I pour myself screwdriver numero tres to celebrate this accomplishment.
7:15am: Phil and his crew offer up the first round of apple pie shots. I partake. Twice.
7:30am: Our good buddy Justin Robinson from Channel 9 mooches his first beverage of the day.
7:40am: Our good buddy Justin Robinson from Channel 9 mooches his second beverage of the day. These may or may not be of an adult nature.
7:45am: Our good buddy Justin Robinson from Channel 9 mooches a cinnamon roll to complete the trifecta.
7:50am: parking attendants arrive. I pick up the program, and utter one of the two or three greatest poetic phrases I have ever composed in celebration: "Then I open the program / To see who our referee will be / And I shout out in horror / Sweet Jesus! Ed Hochuli!" Laughs all around.
8am: Wayne, the guy who runs my bowling league, unlocks the gates.
8:05am: Carl beats the parking attendants for the 145th time in a row (approximate; actual number is likely higher). That opens the floodgates, as five minutes later ...
8:10am: everyone else is let in, a full 20 minutes before scheduled opening. Carl rules.
8:30am: tailgate is set up and ready to go. I pour myself a fourth screwdriver in celebration of this achievement.
8:45am: I get the first "you boozin yet" text message from my brother, who's still going strong at the craps table.
8:46am: “Alcohol” by Brad Paisley pops up on the iPod. A fitting start to a glorious day.
8:55am: I pour myself a fifth screwdriver, to celebrate firing up the grills.
8:57am: "Word Up" by Cameo pops up on the iPod. Inspires an impromptu cheer and dance from some of the tailgaters present.
9:00am: I am "bribed" into playing beer pong by the promise I can use Coors Light.
9:20am: Inspired by the Silver Bullet, my team "wins" its initial beer pong battle.
9:40am: my team "wins" its second beer pong battle.
9:45am: we have a Dusty and crew sighting! About an hour and forty minutes before my predicted arrival time of 11:25.
10am: I retire from beer pong as a three time champion.
10:01am: combination of five screwdrivers and three beer pong games takes it toll. Someone wins the "Guess the time Steve pukes" pool with a winning guess of 10:04am; person who had 10:00am is p*ssed because "Price is Right" rules always determine the winner of a guessing competition.
10:20am: I lose to Dusty at washers for the 1,937,562nd consecutive time (approximate; actual number is likely higher). I pour another screwdriver to “celebrate” this “accomplishment”.
10:21am: “Celebrate” by Kool and the Gang pops up on the iPod. Great, now even the random play list mix is mocking me.
10:30am: Gregg finally arrives. Laughs all around as the "Number of Drinks In Steve Is" game cannot be played today, because I've lost track of the actual count.
10:35am: a funnel has magically appeared. Tailgaters are doing beer bongs off the Bus. Good times!
10:40am: Tailgating neighbors across the street blast horn as everyone's favorite neighbor finally arrives.
10:44am: "Tequila Makes Her Clothes Fall Off" by Joe Nichols pops up on the iPod. Sure enough, a minute later ...
10:45am: Castro! Comes waddling in carrying two bottles of Cuervo Gold, and a Bud Light case with three bottles of Patron and a couple shooter glasses.
10:50am: After happily noting that "I haven't heard one song yet from those pieces of sh*t Black Eyed Peas", someone puts their cd in. A visibly angry Steve spends the next three minutes trying to figure out how to turn it off, only to fail because, well, I'm already too intoxicated to manage ejecting a cd.
11:00am: begin to break the tailgate down. Round three of shots with Castro and Cuervo.
11:05am: final round of shots before the game. A tremendous game of beer pong goes to a pong-off when both sides knock out two cups on the final shots.
11:15am: I pour a screwdriver for the walk in.
11:25am: The flask beats security for the 159th consecutive time (approximate; actual number is likely higher).
11:30am: stop and say hi to Gregg's family.
11:40am: reach my seat, hug Chris, shake Ray's hand.
11:42am: the "Other Steve" from the Bills game takes the seat next to me again.
11:45am: boo pathetic KC Wolf sketch.
11:48am: receive death stares for my refusal to stand and applaud the Boy Scout color guard.
11:50am: the golden pipes of Ida McBeth begin The National Anthem. (I'd pay good money to listen to that woman sing the phone book, as the great Randy Jackson would say).
11:52am: dude in section 132, row 26, seat 14 shakes head in frustration at the flyover, the single biggest waste of taxpayer money known to mankind.
11:54am: Springfield chick in front of me arrives. Cue the "I found my seat because of your hat!" jokes.
11:58am: Chiefs win coin toss. Elect to receive.
12:04pm: weather at kickoff: 76 degrees, not a cloud in the sky. Kendall Gammon notes on 101 the Fox that it is "pushing 90 on the field, pushing 85 in the lower bowl".
12:05pm: realize that this could turn into a "kick off the sandals, prop up the feet, take the shirt off and get some sun" second half with a little luck. Huge, huge smile on my face. Hu-yuge.
12:10pm: touchdown, Kansas City! On a beautiful 36 yard pass from Matt Cassel. 7-0 Chiefs.
12:13pm: the first "De! Fence! (clap!) (clap!)" chants are heard.
12:14pm: interception, Kansas City! Brandon Flowers!
12:22pm: touchdown, Kansas City! On a beautiful 7 yard jaunt up the middle by TJ. 14-0 Chiefs.
12:25pm: fumble on the kickoff recovered by Kansas City! Andy Studebaker with the strip and recovery.
12:28pm: touchdown, Kansas City! On a beautiful 17 yard screen pass by Cassel. 21-0 Chiefs.
12:41pm: our first punt of the day. Arenas returns it to midfield.
12:45pm: end of the first quarter. Chiefs 21, Cardinals 0.
12:46pm: realize those awesome frisbee dogs are our halftime entertainment. Can this day get any better?
12:48pm: (barack obama supporter voice) si se puede! Yes it can! Jamaal from 23 yards out, untouched by a rattled Cardinals defense! 28-0 Chiefs.
12:50pm: a Bill Maas sighting on the video board. Text from section 133: "its all about what's inside you, and i know i've got a lot of zarda bbq inside of me right now".
1:02pm: touchdown, Kansas City! Javier Arenas takes the punt to the house! 35-0 Chiefs.
1:15pm: two minute warning. Text from section 133: "remember last time cards were here? 32 defense!" Yet another "Great Moments in Gambling" from my past, when I infamously bet the ex-roommate something of cash value that the 2002 Chiefs defense would not shut anybody out. Chiefs 49, Cards 0, week 13 2002. The lesson? I suck at sports gambling. You know, if wagering on sports were legal in Missouri, that is.
1:22pm: halftime. 35-0 Chiefs.
1:35pm: unanimous opinion of section 132 is that the frisbee dogs are the greatest halftime show ever.
1:38pm: Chiefs kick off to begin the second half.
1:39pm: I sit down for the first time all day.
1:40pm: the sandals come off.
1:41pm: the feet get propped up on the seat in front of me.
1:42pm: text from section 133: "when's the shirt coming off?"
1:50pm: Tamba Hali sack and fumble recovery! The cart comes out to take Cardinals QB Derek Anderson to his new home for the next 48-72 hours for observation.
1:55pm: it's a new record! The temperature hits 80 degrees on November 21!
1:56pm: touchdown Kansas City! TJ up the middle! Streamers are flying from the upper deck! 42-0 Chiefs.
2:02pm: Cardinals fan behind me puts a bag over his head. After laughing for 30 seconds, I offer to buy the guy a beer. There's humor, and then there's hilarious. Bag on the head? Hilarious.
2:06pm: punt block, Kansas City! Nobody accounted for Demarrio Williams!
2:08pm: touchdown Kansas City! TJ up the middle untouched! With 3:02 to go in the third quarter, TJ now has 21 carries for 196 yards and 3 touchdowns. 49-0 Chiefs.
2:09pm: text message from Roeland Park: "watching game with shane. he says to tell you, "you mother f*cker of course this is the one week team tito shows up to play"." Technically, I've shown up twice -- I beat Gregg earlier this season!
2:10pm: beat my head on the seat in front of me at realization that for the first time since 2004, team tito is not posting a winning record, and is not reaching the playoffs. Maybe I can win the Toilet Bowl.
2:11pm: beat my head on the seat in front of me at realization that team tito is going to get rolled in round one of the Toilet Bowl.
2:12pm: text from section 133: "you beat me because of a fluke mcfadden game and romo's shoulder getting blowed out". Thanks for channeling your inner Emmitt today buddy.
2:15pm: we're through three quarters. 49-0 Chiefs.
2:20pm: text message from section 333: "for the love of god put the shirt back on you're blinding us up here".
2:24pm: after a Cardinals punt, Coach Haley wisely pulls Matt Cassel ... for Tyler Palko. After the game, Coach will defend the decision to bypass Brodie Croyle by noting "Brodie has never taken a snap for this team when they've had the lead. I didn't want to risk an embarrasing loss by putting him out there". All of Arrowhead Nation nods in agreement at this wise, wise decision.
2:40pm: Russ drops the "the beer's cheaper and colder at the bus" blast that's the cue to pack up and leave. So's the vodka man. So's the vodka. But you don't leave a 49-0 boatrace victory early, do you?
2:42pm: realize the flask is empty. I drop the "the beer's cheaper and colder at the bus" blast.
2:43pm: hug Chris, shake Ray's hand. All of 132 agrees, its on like Donkey Kong inhaling multiple bongs in two weeks against those sleazy sons of b*tches from denver.
2:45pm: the traditional postgame hug from Jennifer.
2:46pm: begin walk up spiral ramp. Pound the column a few times with goofy ass grin on my face. The always awesome "beat the donkeys!" chants are flying. After a couple minutes, it turns into "f*ck the donkeys!", which immediately moves to number one in my "Favorite Moment of the Season-o-Meter".
2:55pm: reach the Bus. Pour screwdriver number ... uuh ... I've lost count. Pour a screwdriver.
2:56pm: hit my knees to do the traditional victory alcohol-fueled-whipped cream shot. Laughs all around. Event is recorded and posted to Youtube! and becomes an instant sensation, attracting 4 hits in the next 24 hours.
2:58pm: "Sweet Caroline" by Neil Diamond pops up on the iPod. Leads to a rousing rendition led by "Sweet Daddy Stevo".
3:10pm: pour another screwdriver.
3:20pm: pour another screwdriver.
3:30pm: pour another screwdriver.
3:40pm: parking lot has finally emptied. Pour another screwdriver for the ride back.
3:42pm: Will gets behind the wheel. A look of horror emerges on my face.
3:51pm: arrive back at the "Bus Barn". Will beats his personal record from four weeks ago by nearly 3 minutes.
3:53pm: "Richard" wanders in with happy news: Jimmie Johnson has wrecked. A very loud "yes! Thank you Jesus yes! yes! yes!" comes out of my mouth.
4:30pm: head for home after pouring one last screwdriver. Nearly half a handle of vodka and a gallon of OJ, gone. Job well done.
4:40pm: turn off the phone, turn off the lights, lock the front door, and decide to take a "quick nap" before rewatching and recapping the game.
7:00am: alarm goes off to wake me up for work on Monday.
7:04am: first angry “where the hell’s the recap, yo!” email arrives in my work inbox …

See, life is so much easier when you know what's gonna happen ahead of time, right? :)

Seriously, it's gonna be 70ish and sunny. Tickets will be easy to come by. You can always move over by me if you want to experience Chiefs football the way it was meant to be enjoyed: next to an arrogant know-it-all pushing .25 on the BAC count, who thinks years of playing Madden have made him smarter than the coaching staffs on the field.

(Although in my defense: I am smarter and more knowledgeable pushing a .25 than half the coaches that have roamed the Arrowhead sidelines and coaching box the last couple years. Particularly those affiliated with the home town team).

If you need a place to tailgate, we'll hook you up. Just let me know to save you a spot to park, the grassy lot at the back of Lot G fills up pretty quick. Looks like the menu is burgers, dogs, and brats, with some tasty side dishes thrown in. Even if I’m wrong, I do know there will be plenty of liquid adult refreshment, some washers, some decent music, some good times, and at least a few games of beer pong at a minimum.

And oh yeah, the team on the field, that we're there to cheer on? This just in folks. They're in first place. They're one win away from matching our win total of the last two seasons combined. With a win, we'll still be in first place no matter what, and likely tied for the final wildcard berth with Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and possibly Pittsburgh. And we're nine point favorites against a woeful Cardinals team that is in dead last in the NFC West, possibly the worst division in the history of the League.

at Chiefs (-9) 49, Cardinals 0, in a game that might not even be that close. Don't be a stranger! Come out and support your first place Kansas City … (crowd at end of national anthem voice) CHIEFS! It takes multiple people to get a beer pong game going, after all ...