Sunday, October 9, 2016

the week five picks: ain't no lie -- bye bye bye!

“She’s fine, most of the time.
She takes her days with a smile.
Moves like a dancer in lights;
Spinning around to the sound.

But sometimes?
She falls down …

Breathe.
Just breathe.
Take the world off your shoulders,
And put it on me!

Breathe.
Just breathe!
Let the life that you live?
Be all that you need! …”


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Last Week SU: 8-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 32-31-0.

Last Week ATS: 9-5-1.
Season to Date ATS: 33-28-2.

Last Week Upset O’ The Week: I’m getting scared!
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 3-1-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 4-0-0.
This Week’s Upset O’ The Week: Cowboys (+1 ½) over Bengals.

Last Week SUCK: we’re not trying that reverse psychology thing again.
Season to Date SUCK: 2-2-0.
This Week’s SUCK: Colts (-5) over Bears.

(Note: the SUCK gets credit for being wrong, because it is my favorite bet on the board.)

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The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Picks:

* Byes: Chiefs, Jaguars, Saints, and Seahawks.  They should all survive that tough matchup; none of those squads employs “Sur” William Callahan.

* My Thursday Night Prediction was 49ers 20, “Super” Cardinals 17.  We’re off to a sh*ttacular start here, folks!

* at Colts (-5) 34, Bears 13.  This just feels like a “Come to Jesus” game for the Colts, doesn’t it?  This has “p*ssed off team takes it out on horrific team” written all over it.

* at Dolphins (-3 ½) 31, Titans 10.  If Miami wins this game – because like the Packers, the Dolphins also somehow enjoy five straight weeks at home this year, beginning this week – if Miami wins this game, their season just got very, very intriguing.

Oh, and absolutely – Good Times Game O’ The Week!

* Patriots 27, at Browns (+11) 24.  The Browns are feisty.  They’re terrible, but at least they’re feisty.

Oh, and without question – (allard baird voice) without question! – ALF Game O’ The Week!

* Eagles (-3) 38, at Lions 10.  Enjoy “Corpse” Caldwell while you can folks.  Because only the Tennessee Titans would be stupid enough to hire Ol’ Corpse, after this latest indefensible season of coaching.

Also, the Eagles sorta, kinda remind me of the 2010 Chiefs at this point.  A shocking 3-0 thanks to a stunning home upset of an (allegedly) superior opponent.  Then an early Week Four bye.  Then two straight winnable roadies, followed by an intriguing inter-divisional matchup at home.  (My way of saying – who would have thunk Packers at Eagles the final Monday night in November, might have gigantic playoff ramifications?)

* Redskins (+4) 31, at Ravens 21.  My favorite game as a fan on the board this week.  This matchup is fascinating.  I think the Redskins have underachieved and are putting it together.  I think the Ravens are the biggest overachievers so far in the league.  We’ll learn a lot about both teams come 3:30pm CT on Sunday.

* at Vikings 24, Texans (+7) 21.  This line is way too high.  Although man, what a storyline is being set up in the AFC South – if the Colts hold serve at home, and the Texans lose as expected, then Indy at Houston next Sunday night is for the division lead.

* at Rams 21, Bills (+3) 20.  Toughest game on the board to predict.  I wish to God this had an extra half point either way; this feels like a last second field goal finish, 10 hours out.

* “Shane” Falcons (+6) 38, at satan’s squad 27.  There is no way in hell this donkeys team is this good.  I mean, should be we congratulating these asshats on barely beating a 1-3 Panthers squad, struggling against a 1-3 Colts squad, showing up against a .500 Bengals squad, and blowing out a 1-3, L3 Bucs squad whose QB and head coach are openly verbally brawling on the sidelines?  Jesus, I hate the denver broncos, I hate each and every one of their worthless piece of sh*t fans … and really, what else needs to be said?  They’re satan’s squad for Christ’s sake!  I!  Hate!  The!  denver!  broncos!

* at raiders (-4) 41, “Super” Chargers 20.  “Fat” Andy gets two weeks, to prepare for one hell of a (coach don fambrough voice) showdown, throwdown, hoedown, in the Black Hole next Sunday afternoon.  I have a feeling next week’s gameplan, will look a lot better than last week’s.

* at Cowboys (+1 ½) 31, Bengals 13.  How in God’s name is Cincinnati favored?  In Dallas?  What has any sane, rational handicapper seen to make them think the Bengals are better, on the road, in this contest?

* at Packers (-7) 31, Giants 14.  Raise your hand if you’re watching this instead of the debate tonight.  (Pause).  You’re damned right my hand isn’t raised.  If Round One drew 84 million viewers, I cannot wait to see what Round Two will draw.  Especially since Round Two involves Secretary Clinton having to constantly get up and down out of an elevated chair for ninety minutes (the dirty little “oh sh*t!” panic that every single one of us Clintonistas is thinking right now, 10 some odd hours out).

* at Panthers 13, Bucs (+7) 10.  Guess based on the assumption Cam Newton won’t play due to (al michaels voice) a concussion.  If Cam does play, Carolina will easily cover.  If it’s Derek Anderson, they’ll barely win.

Note: I’m skipping “The Fab Five”, “Inside Mixology”, “The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week”, “The Tailgating Plans”, and “The Watching Party Plans” portions of these prepared remarks, since this is the Chiefs bye week, and few if any of those things apply.

* The Jets Best Guess Prognostication:

Well, this is it.

(This is it!)

This is life!  The one you have!  So go and have a ball!

Yeah, this game looks so horrific on paper, that I am seriously two-thirds of the way tempted, to go “there”.  To invoke a status on this game, I tremble in terror to invoke on any game.


My 1B team is 1-3, and looks worse every week.  The Steelers are coming off demolishing my 1A team so thoroughly, that the Chiefs not only were used as the Steelers own personal urinal, we were used as a f*cking pre-used condom, we were so thoroughly stuffed and mounted on Sunday night.

Either the Jets are this sh*tty, the Steelers are this real and spectacular … or the truth lies somewhere in between.

I’ll let my prediction speak, for which of those three, I believe the most in.  And no, it ain’t “the Steelers are this real, and this spectacular”.

* at Steelers (-7) 45, Jets 3.

* The Chiefs Bye Week Thought(s):

Yes, Sunday Night happened.  The Steelers ran out to the single biggest lead (22-0) after one quarter in NBC’s history of carrying Sunday Night Football, and they lost by an embarrassing margin that, taken in a vacuum, should all but end the 2016 campaign faster than “House of Wings” is running his 2016 campaign into the ground.

And yet …

* Week Ten 2015.  The Chiefs roll into denver coming off their bye week at 3-5.  The donkeys opened the season 7-0, including an epic comeback win at Arrowhead that for all intents and purposes ultimately decided the AFC Champion last season, and have just suffered their first defeat, falling in stunning fashion in Indianapolis.

Result?  Chiefs race out to a 29-0 lead, see satan manning benched with a 0 QB rating after throwing 4 INTs, and win comfortably, to jumpstart the run to the postseason … while the donkeys survive six weeks of (al michaels voice) brock, and win the Super Bowl.

* Week Four 2014.  The Chiefs kick off arguably the greatest forty eight hours in Truman Sports Complex history, absolutely de-pantsing the Patriots 44-14 on Monday Night Football, a mere day before the Royals delivered the single greatest sporting event I’ve ever been privileged enough to attend into our lives.

And …

* Week Eleven 2014.  The Chiefs throttle the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, running up over 200 yards of offense in a game in which I literally set myself on fire (with excitement or drunken stupidity, your call).

Result?  Those two outcomes help the Chiefs rally from 0-2 to 7-3 … before closing 2-4, to miss the playoffs on tiebreakers at 9-7.  Your two Super Bowl teams in 2014?  New England … and Seattle.

Three times in the last two years, the Chiefs have blown out a Super Bowl participant in the regular season.  (We did not face Carolina the past two seasons, the only one of the last four Super Bowl participants, the Chiefs have not faced.)

One game?  Does not a season make.  (Unless that game is the Super Bowl, of course.  And even then, I’d argue it doesn’t make the season, it simply ends it.)

Overreacting to one game?  Is stupid.  It’s so stupid, in fact, that I can only think of one person, and one person only, who would so overreact to one game, that he (or she) would completely revise everything they think about the 2016 NFL season, because of that one game. 

And that someone?  Is me.

(Although to be fair, it was two games I overreacted to – the Steelers blowout loss to Philly, and the Chiefs absolutely turning the Jets into Chico “No Pants” Lind.)

Chiefs fans?  Don’t make the same mistake I did.  Don’t overreact to one game.

Teams that “Fat” Andy Reid have coached, have opened 2-2 six times before.  Here is how those seasons ended (stats courtesy Wikipedia; the fun fact that led to this research courtesy Twitter):

* 2000 Eagles: 11-5, NFC Wildcard, L Division Round (Giants 10-20).
* 2001 Eagles: 11-5, NFC East Champs, L NFC Championship (Rams 24-29).
* 2003 Eagles: 12-4, NFC East Champs, L NFC Championship (Panthers 3-14).

(Note: the 2003 Eagles actually opened 0-2, before closing 12-2.)

* 2008 Eagles: 9-6-1, NFC Wildcard, L NFC Championship (Cardinals 25-32).
* 2010 Eagles: 10-6, NFC East Champs, L NFC Wildcard Round (Packers 16-21).

And …

* 2014 Chiefs: 9-7, did not quality for postseason.

Based on past history, this Chiefs team floor is now 9-7, missing the playoffs on tiebreakers.  Which makes sense – when you look at the remaining twelve games, I can see seven wins in there based solely on talent on the Chiefs roster versus the opponents’ roster, as well as venue of play: Saints, Colts, Jaguars, Bucs, raiders (at Arrowhead), Titans, Chargers.  I can also see three toss-ups, based on talent and/or location: raiders (at oakland), Falcons, broncos (at Arrowhead on Christmas Night).

That leaves two games left the Chiefs will be decided dogs on paper: at Carolina, at denver.

The Chiefs throttled the donkeys in denver last season, should have beaten them at Arrowhead last season, and Carolina is reeling at 1-3 and sinking fast, so I ask the Captain Oats in the room: is a game there in four weeks really supposed to be written off as a loss a month off?

In my preseason predictions, I had the Chiefs going 12-4, losing at Pittsburgh, vs Jacksonville, at Carolina, and at Atlanta.  The loss at Pittsburgh happened.  Swap the predicted loss to Jacksonville, for the actual loss at Houston.  I’m not optimistic about the roadie in Carolina, so leave that one intact.  And flip which game on the road trip in late November / early December we lose: lose at denver (since I’m going, it’s all but assured we’ll lose), and beat Atlanta (who is not as good as they’ve looked; they’re the 2002 Chiefs folks).

Even if the Chiefs lose next week?  That’s 11-5, and I’ll take my chances on the road at Houston or Baltimore to open the postseason, with a shot at denver or New England next.

Exact same as last year.

Exact same as nearly every damned year, “Fat” Andy Reid opens 2-2.

Come to think of it?

Damned near exact same as nearly every damned year?

“Fat” Andy Reid? 

Is your team’s head coach – ten plus wins, a wildcard victory, and roll the dice in the divisional round, winning the roll about 50% of the time, to reach a conference championship game.

Is that really so awful?

I say not only no, but hell to the mo’ fo’ no!

Chiefs fans?  It’s going to be ok.  “Fat” Andy will find a way to still have the Chiefs relevant, come the three game homestand in December that will propel this team into either another trip to Houston, another trip to Indy, or a return engagement in Pittsburgh, as a worst case scenario, the second weekend in January.

Enjoy the bye week.  Don’t panic.  Instead, do the opposite.  Spend time with your family.  Hang out with your friends.  Build a Lego set with your son, or have a lovely afternoon tea with your daughter and her dolls.  (Or flip who you have the Lego cession and the tea and crumpets with if you have to; you and your kids are exactly who God Himself made you to be.  Never apologize for the perfection that is you!) 

Have a beer with someone you haven’t seen in a while.  Forgive someone who’s hurt you; apologize to someone you’ve hurt.  Get up off the couch and take a walk – you can’t ask for a more perfect weekend here in Kansas City at least (70 and sunny both days). 

This bye week?  Focus on what counts in life.  Because I guaran-damn-tee you – how you react to one meaningless Sunday Night game to open October?

Is not something God is going to ask you to account for, when your time to face Him, arrives in the afterlife.

Just breathe.  It’s going to be ok.  And even if it’s not?  It’s just football.  We’ll survive.

(Pause).

Yeah, I know – 29 year old Stevo is shaking his head in abject “what the f*ck did I just type?!?!?!?!” shock and stunned disbelief.  Hey, you stand less than 90 days away from turning 40, and tell me if your perspective changes any …

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Note: I am putting my own advice above, into action this week.  I leave for Sioux Falls either Thursday or Friday, to spend the weekend with my friends I consider to be family up there, for the Chiefs roadie to oakland.  (I suppose this is where I should note, they all always come down for the raiders game here; we always go up there, for the raiders roadie.  It’s tradition.)  Also, my bowling league begins on Wednesday night, and I cannot wait to see the teammates that are beyond family, as well as so many great friends, that are a part of that league, for the first time in a few months.


My way of saying, the Picks Post may be even sh*ttier next week, than this week’s was.  It all depends on work obligations, and travel plans.  In any event, this is going to be one fun week.  It might even lead to one fun recap …

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