"What the ... what the hell? Oh, you can't be ... whew, timeout. OK, common sense guys, common sense."
-- me, when the Chiefs broke huddle with the offense on the field, down 3-0, 1st quarter, facing 4th and 2 at the Indianapolis 8.
"Oh no. Oh f*ck no. F*ck no! God f*cking dammit! (slams stress towel down). This is going to bite us in the ass. Bite! Us! In! The! Ass!"
-- me, when the Chiefs came out of the timeout ... with the offense on the field, down 3-0, 1st quarter, facing 4th and 2 at the Indianapolis 8.
------------------
Have you ever faced a moment in life, when you see the trainwreck occuring before it occurs?
You see someone making a stupid decision, you can already see how it's going to end, only you're powerless to stop the moment and change the eventual outcome?
Yeah, yeah, I can hear you all say. "Every time my buddy goes to the Eclipse". Granted, scoring a chick at the Eclipse usually leads to bad things, like "Coyote Ugly" jokes and a strange burning sensation when you pee.
But Sunday? That 4th and 2 decision? That ... was a trainwreck. And any sensible person could -- no, should -- have had the common sense to avoid it.
You ALWAYS take the points in the first half. Because if you don't, it will ALWAYS bite you in the ass. Make that Steve Rule 50 whatever-we're-up-to.
To say I was livid at the call, is an understatement. I believe I permanently frightened everyone I was watching the game with, including a 6 month old.
(Side note: the second I asked who all was coming, and Kellie went through the list, and casually mentioned "oh, and I think they're bringing Owen with them!", I should have politely thanked them for the invite, and gotten the hell in the car and sped home. The last time I watched a Chiefs game where there was an infant there to provide commercial entertainment? The Playoff Loss in 2006. To the Colts. In a game that played out shockingly like this one, only with competent place kicking by the Chiefs. Let's just say, I don't envision myself watching a game at the Casa de Glass this fall. It's best for all involved. Especially the guys playing the game).
I also could never let go of the decision. It reeked of desperation. Worse, it was a flat out admission by this coaching staff that "we don't think we can beat you straight up". Which as pointed out by not just me last week, but by countless prognosticators and experts throughout the week, was ridiculous. Noone expected a blowout. Everyone expected KC to acquit itself well. That decision on 4th and 2 was insanity at its textbook definition level best.
And sadly, it isn't the first time the man I "affectionately" call Coach Asshat has embarrassed himself and this organization on the sideline.
Let's just hope that this time, its the last time.
Having gotten that (at least temporarily) out of the way, everything else yesterday was about what I expected. I was asked at kickoff how many I thought we'd have to score to win. I said "24". Pretty close to the mark.
The Chiefs defense was everything I hoped it would be, and then some. The Chiefs offense showed signs of life, but was undermined by two catastrophic moments: the 4th and 2 decision, and the D Bowe drop that nearly made me vomit. I mean, are you kidding me? There were about 10 of us watching this at Dusty and Kellie's yesterday, and I guaran-damn-tee you 9 of us would have made that catch. (I would have dropped it; hence the "hands of Steve" jokes I used to make about Samie Parker, another talented WR for this team who couldn't catch a cold if a dude with pneumonia sneezed all over him).
And our special teams, holy Lord. Do we have a weapon in these guys or what? No, I'm not referencing the return game yesterday. It was perfectly adequate. I'm referencing Ryan Succup's awesone day, nailing two clutch 40 plus yard kicks in very hostile conditions, and Dusty C's awesome afternoon, never once outkicking his coverage. If Chiefs fans were upset about the inability of Dex or Javier to break one yesterday, you should be just as ecstatic over our coverage units. The Colts returners got NOTHING yesterday. Absolutely nothing. As soon as they fielded the kicks, they were tackled. It was beautiful execution. Speaking of which ...
* I guarantee you at least half the people reading this, expected my initial rant to be about the onside kick to open the game. To them, I say this:
(blake lewis) (performs his version of "You Give Love a Bad Name")
(simon cowell) That was a very brave thing to do. You know, half the people in this room and in the audience watching at home are going to hate that performance, and half of them are going to love it. And this is what is going to keep you in the competition next week!"
(Yet another side note: again ... how the hell did Blake not win this? He was everything "Idol" should want -- original. Talented. Not unpleasant to look at. And as he put it in this clip, "I might be taking a risk on it, which is fine -- if you don't take risks in life, you'll never see anything new". Bingo! Its why I loved Coach Asshat's onside kick. A perfectly calculated risk. Nothing to lose -- either it works well and we shock the world (like Blake did with this genius version of a classic) ... or we allow a score they probably would have gotten anyways. More of these risks, Todd. Fewer of the donkeys fake punt and 4th and 2 variety. And yeah, I actually called you "Todd". You're growing on me. I'm totally digging your pissed off persona on the sideline when things are tanking / visibly giddy as a schoolgirl persona on the sideline when things rock. Like me in 132, 26, 14. I'm just saying. Me and You. Very similar personalities. Except I embrace the dark side of my existance ...)
If that last bounce had rolled forward, the Chiefs had just stolen a possession from the Colts, had the potential to open both halves with scoring drives, and put Indy in a hole early on. It was a BRILLIANT play call. There wasn't a Colt within 5 yards of the ball, they were all retreating backwards to block for the return. We just got an unlucky bounce. It happens.
(Side Note 1: for what it's worth, and I have not seen one question asked about this, so I'm going to make wild-hair prediction number one ... I think we had a bomb called on the 1st down that would have resulted. I think Coach Asshat was going for the jugular right off the bat. As Leo noted in "Titanic", "When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose". I think we had a 4 Jet All Go type play ready when we recovered that. In case you doubt me, the one turnover we had all day, what was the play call on 1st down? 31 yard bomb to the end zone that D Bowe dropped.)
(Side Note 2: for all the sh*t Hank Baskett took for botching the onsider in the Super Bowl, give the guy some credit -- he saw it coming. He held his position. It just took an unlucky bounce off of him, and into a Saints player's arms. The Colts this time ... didn't even bother to account for the possibility of an onside kick.
So I'm gonna make wild-haired prediction number two right now. When the Colts visit the Pats, the Pats will have some weird looking setup on a return that springs for a touchdown, because the Colts will over-compensate for the onside possibility that they think Belichick will spring. Their over-reaction will cost them that game on November 21st. I'm calling that 5 weeks out. The great ones always outthink the mentally challenged ones. Belichick is one of the greatest. Jim Caldwell is fortunate enough people still refer to him as "mentally challenged", and not "Rich Kotite awful").
* Quiz time! "For long lasting comfort and a great feel ..." When Brett Favre says those words in a commercial, is he pimping Wrangler jeans, or Lifestyles Ultra Sensitive condoms? Just asking.
* Another random thought in my head, this Duke F*ck List that is absolutely hysterical, by the way, floating around the internet -- am I the only one absolutely shocked and awed at the fact that a CHICK did the list? And am I the only one not even remotely shocked and awed at the fact that ZERO basketball players made the list? She had baseball players, football players, even a lacrosse dude that got four plus slides for crying out loud (out of 42). But zero hoopsters. Interesting.
* Saturday was spent on a pretty sweet tour of central Missouri. A quick recap of the day spent in a paradise known as Hermann, Missouri:
Left on a tour bus at about 9am. There were 55 people on our bus, and there were four buses total heading on this journey. So we had quite the impressive group going.
Early on, it was obvious some dude named Chris was going to be the life of the party. His wife had made up some CD's to play on the drive there. Underrated Moment of the Day Number One: the expression on the bus driver's face as "Crazy Bitch" by Buckcherry came on. Based on that unedited classic, I can only imagine what was flowing through his mind by the time such classics as "Get Low", "In Da Club", and "Rump Shaker" were piping through the sound system.
Very fun ride down there. We sat behind these four pretty funny black chicks, and right in front of Chris the Entertainer and his group. Plenty of shared jello shots, plenty of fun conversation, and a "Gin Bucket". Yup, they had a kegger filled with gin and juice. Holy Lord.
And to top it all off, then that "Shot Shot Shot Shot!" song came on ... (and sorry, I'm not a rap fan, but I think it was Lil Wayne? Or Lil Jon? Seriously, how on earth can black guys have "Lil" as their first name and be taken credibly? (rimshot!) ... moving on before this completely tanks ...), anyways, that song came on, and Chris starts doing his ass smack dance move in the aisle, and I just completely lost it. Flashed right back to Floatapalooza Version 1.0 this summer, Dusty doing the same thing on the raft a couple times an hour. Could not stop laughing. Then someone asked "what's so funny", and since I was the only one there who'd been on Floatapalooza 1.0, I couldn't really explain it. But it was good times.
We got to the first stop about noon, the Stone Hill Winery on the far south side of Hermann. Our tour organizer (I swear, I believe her name was Lisa, but as my recap of the 49ers game proved, I can't remember a name to save my ass), Lisa was getting married at the winery that day. So she budgeted an extra thirty minutes for folks to tour, drink, and have fun.
After about 30, 45 minutes sampling various wines available, our group of five headed off to find a table to enjoy the day with a couple bottles, and the stuff we'd packed to enjoy (grapes, cheeses, crackers, apples, strawberries ... wait, this is sounding gayer by the minute ... not that there's anything wrong with that ... let's get back to the recap, because it really was a great Saturday ...)
So, we spent an hour enjoying some lunch, some wine, some good times, some good conversation ... and a day you just can't beat. Are you kidding me? 85 and not a cloud in the sky in mid October? Where the hell has this been all my life?
2:30, the bus is off for downtown Hermann, where Officer Bob greets us as we get ready to park. He informs us of the various rules and regulations they will attempt to enforce (basically, no open containers, don't throw down, and "no nudity from the waste down") ... and then drops the "oh, yeah. And no sex in the port-a-potties. I really don't ever want to clean up after that again". Brought the house down. I love cops with a sense of humor.
(That, and sweet f*cking God, what have you got to be on to actually want to f*ck in a used port-a-potty? And how do I get that drug to enjoy?)
Heeding Officer ... excuse me. Heeding Occifer Bob's advice, we went in search of some good times. And found them in a beer garden at the Tin Mill Brewery's back yard.
Walk in, no cover charge thankfully, and there's some really decent cover band performing doing 60s and 70s rock and soul songs. I've said this before, and I'll say it again -- there is no greater unifying song known to man than ...
(get yourself ready for this)
(no seriously. enjoy this responsibly and properly)
(grab your beer stein)
(make sure it's full)
(make sure you're not alone)
(then put your arm around the person next to you because you're ...)
Hands! Touching hands! ...
Reaching out! ...
Touching me! ...
Touching you! ...
(it's cool. Sing it. You know you want to. You know you HAVE to ... Bah bah bah ...)
Sweet Caroline! (BAH BAH BAH!)
Good times never seemed so good! (SO GOOD! SO GOOD! SO GOOD!)
I'd be inclined! (BAH BAH BAH!)
To believe there never would ...
Man, you can't help but flash back to the good old days on that one, quarter draw night at Harpo's back in my younger drinkin' days. When the waitress would come around with a tray full with twenty some odd glasses of beer, and you'd give her a five and tell her to keep the change.
Very fun times.
About 4:30, though, it was time to see what else Hermann had to offer. So we headed off for the Hermannhof Winery to do a tour of that place ... only the last tour goes off at 4. Bummer. Walking back towards downtown, we then came upon a scene that you really can't put into words.
A drunk shirtless dude decided to go drunk dive fishing in the river.
It's like me on Floatapalooza on the cliffs, only without anyone else diving with me. The cops are standing on both sides of the banks, waiting for this guy to try to get out. To their credit, once he did manage to stumble onto the bank of the east side (opposite from us) ... the cops let him go.
(A major, MAJOR shout out to the Hermann cops here. They were exactly what you want from a police presence. They didn't really arrest anyone, but they were everywhere to break up whatever might go down. Case in point: after the drunk dive, we're walking on the bridge over the river. I'm in a Chiefs t-shirt, and some college kid starts yelling "Chiefs! Chiefs!" He and his group are "talking" to a cop, and he's trying to get me to high-five him. I'm still completely sober at this point, believe it or not. (I actually stayed sober throughout, unlike most folks.) Anyways, I look at the cop with a "is this guy really that lit?" look, and he looks back with a "help me out here, do it, I have a plan" look in his eyes. So ... I go to high five the kid, mission accomplished. In order to do that, the kid had to put his beer down (aka "open container"). The cop grabbed it, tossed it into the river ... and let the kid walk. THAT'S what I want my cops to be like. There's criminal activity ... and there's drunken stupidity. There is a difference, most of the time. Their cops got it. Great community. Great place to spend a Saturday in October. Highly recommend it to anyone).
After that, it was off in search of some food and entertainment. Everyone we'd talked to pimped the Sharp Corner, a bar about eight blocks away. So on our way to the Sharp Corner, we encounter another group of college kids, these guys locals of all things. After shooting the sh*t with them for a couple blocks, we ask what they'd recommend. They mention Wings a Flyin', a bar on the way to where we were headed. They mention the "ranked fourth in the state of Missouri" blast for their wings. That put Russ all in. So off to the Wings a Flyin' we went.
Unfortunately for said "tour guides" ... a nasty batch of cannas took them out on the walk there. Another brought the house down moment. The rest of the night, the "look out! That batch of cannas might assault you!" jokes were flying.
Wings a Flyin' ... was ok. I was pumped entering the place -- they had an outdoor patio (where we basically sat with our "tour guides" for an hour), cheap prices, and (I hoped) a legitimate bar. It's pushing 6pm on the east coast, and I haven't had a vodka tonic yet. I was seriously jonesing for one. Our waitress comes around, and the order went like this:
(waitress) and for you sir?
(steve) finally! (laughs all around the table.) I want the strongest double vodka tonic you can make, and as tall as you can make it. See, I'm easy to please! (more laughs around the table)
(waitress) uuh, we don't have a full service bar.
(steve) (in shock) what?
(waitress) just beer and wine.
(steve) (still in shock) really?
(waitress) yeah, really.
(steve) well f*ck, that changes things. Hang on a minute ...
Finally went with a glass of merlot from a local winery I'd never had before. And will never have again. As I noted when passing it around, "it tastes like Yellowtail".
So, after some blazing hot wings, some beers, some wine, and watching Alabama get their ass kicked, it was off to the Sharp Corner! Mainly because most of us wanted to see some of the MU / Colorado game. That, and every local we'd talked to hyped the Sharp Corner. We had to check it out.
We got there about 6:15. You could not find a seat anywhere. Finally, after a couple minutes, we found a beat up table in a corner designed for two, that we made work for five. And waited for 5 minutes. Finally, I was like "screw it, I'm ordering", and headed up to the bar.
In fairness to the Sharp Corner ... it is the EXACT type of bar I would love. Its a hole in the wall. It's got the quality music blaring (the entire place was singing to the "third verse" of "Friends in Low Places" right before we left ...
Hey I didn't mean,
To cause a big scene,
Just let me finish this glass.
Then I'll be as high
As that ivory tower ...
And you can kiss my ass!
... just a great atmosphere. Fun times. But unfortunately, the fact that every local had spread the word, meant they were (a) out of tap beer, (b) out of white wine, and (c) were hurting for food.
After a round of drinks that features the most pathetic vodka tonic I've ever had in my life (although to be fair, for three Bud Light bottles and said vodka tonic, I paid $11.50. You do get what you pay for sometimes, unfortunately.), it was off for some place to have dinner.
The first place we stopped was some bar and grill about two blocks away, and I forget the name of it, but it started with a T. I was actually the lead of the group at this point. I headed up the ramp, ready to open the door ...
And the door flies open. This visibly intoxicated chick is being shoved out by one of Hermann's finest. As he's escorting her to the curb, she's screaming "I just ordered Mac and Cheese! How can you kick me out for ordering Mac and Cheese! I'm a vegan!"
Now, three things here. (And wait, we're nowhere near done with this place yet). Number one, what the hell is any thirty plus year old person doing trying to order mac and cheese in a bar? Second, when the owner of said establishment is following you and the cop out the door, saying "I don't want to escalate this. Just please go home, let's let this go, I don't want to escalate this ...", and you're too f*cking dumb to take the hint? You probably need to stop drinking.
But third ... you're a vegan? And you're ordering cheese?!?! And yes, I noted that. Loudly. Which probably would have led this chick to rushing me up the ramp, she was that freaking pissed off, except ...
The door flew open again, and some dude was running for his life, as a waitress followed screaming "Officer! Officer! Arrest that man! He assaulted me!" Apparently dude tossed his drink at her. Yeah, that's assault. He definitely did NOT help his case when, after the cop attempts to regain control and figure out what the hell is going on, the dude goes "I was just trying to apologize to her right now for what I did ..." Think "Drunk Tank", its where you're headed.
Figuring this wasn't our safest option for dinner, it was off to Simon's on the Riverfront ... only a 45 minute wait awaited us. Screw that. Across the street to The Barrel, where a dude from Chris' group was being forcibly ejected for public intoxication and trying to incite a fight. Wonderful. Just so we know what we're dealing with driving home. We walk in and are told the restaurant area is open seating, aka "if you find a spot, grab it". We manage to find a table not really designed for five, but beggars can't be choosers.
Thankfully ... the Barrel was well worth the 90 minutes spent there. The black chicks by us on the bus were there too. Very enjoyable evening of really good (and dirt cheap) food, good conversation, and the highlight of my night, when our wonderful waitress Glenda showed up to take the order:
(steve) (looking over menu)
(steve) I have to ask, because I've been screwed over already. Do you all have vodka in the bar?
(glenda) (laughing) yeah, of course we do! Why?
(steve) thank God. OK, here's what I want. I want the strongest vodka tonic you can make in that beer glass (they were the tall Solo cups). I want no worse than Smirnoff vodka in it. And if you can toss a lime in there, I'll make it worth the walk over here for me to drink it.
(glenda) (laughing) You went to Wings didn't you?
(steve) yeah. Why?
(glenda) all you tourists think that place has a real bar.
So she brings the round. And it's killer. She nailed that drink. (More to come).
Finally, she takes our order. I get the BLT with chips, figuring that'll be pretty good. (And it was, it was outstanding. Three words: turkey. pepper. bacon. Holy God.) Only, when everyone else's food comes out ... mine's not there. Glenda looks at me and goes "didn't you order dinner?" I was like "yeah, the BLT". She flashes the "oh sh*t I forgot to place the order" face, and goes "I'll be right back".
She comes back about 5 minutes later with the sandwich ... and another vodka tonic. I was good with that -- I was ready to order another one, for what it's worth. Only this one ... sweet Lord. If "Steve Style" is 50% booze / mixer, and "Quinton's Style" is 60/40 booze ... this was 80 / 20. She handed it to me, smiled, and said "I made it myself". Glenda, you're a first ballot inductee into the Steve Hall of Fame for that drink alone. And also because ...
It was obvious she was worn out. Apparently they had a couple folks not show. She was serving 15 plus tables, which is insane. So as we all go to pay, all of us are over-tipping her, because (a) she did a kick ass job, and (b) that's how we roll. So she gets to me, and our conversation ...
(glenda) you don't owe me anything.
(steve) what? I had two vodka tonics, thanks for the second by the way, that was amazing. I had that, and the BLT.
(glenda) yeah, but I comped you over the BLT issue.
(steve) no. How much would my bill have been?
(glenda) (doing the math) $11.95. $7 for the tonics, $4.95 for the BLT.
(steve) here's 15. Enjoy a couple on me tonight.
Glenda, your friendly waitress at the Barrel. If you are ever lucky enough to have her serve you, you won't regret it.
Really, there's nothing about Hermann I regret, including the drunken evictions by folks ... other than when we got back to the bus. The dude with Chris' group who got evicted from the Barrel finally shows up right before its departure time ... and stumbles onto the bus. Literally stumbled. Then stood up, goofy ass drunk grin going ... with a gigantic wet spot in his crotch area. I turn around to Jason, a guy from their group sitting behind me, and go "he's gonna sh*t his pants tonight -- he's already pissed them, you know he's gonna pass out and lose control". Jason's response? "Won't be his first time. He didn't even make it to dinner last year, he was already shot".
The last 90 minutes, there were continuous fart noises coming from 5 rows back where this guy sat. Stay classy.
The ride home was pretty quiet. Just a small group of us sitting near the front passing around a bottle of peach schnapps, shooting the sh*t. And 45 other people passed out sleeping.
Got home about 1am ... and absolutely I'd do it again. The only thing I'd do differently, is go as a smaller group, and stay Saturday night. I'd get there about noon, do the Trolley Tour of the winerys on Saturday, then hit the beer garden at 7ish instead of 3ish. Wait til the "tourists" leave at 9, then do dinner when it dies down. Stay the night, then hit the rest of the winerys on Sunday and head home Sunday evening. But definitely a weekend worth booking.
* Finally ... my thoughts for the Chiefs entering this week.
This is a great opportunity for us. We open +5, an absolutely ridiculous line. Houston hasn't earned the right to be favored over anyone at this point, let alone get 5. Furthermore, all our divisional rivals have very losable games this week -- the Chargers travel to a frisky Rams team, the raiders face a "no, really, at some point, its do or die time" 49ers team, and the donkeys host the Jets. If we can steal this one, and get help? We could be three clear in the loss column after six weeks. Normally this is where I'd point out that "I can only think of one team capable of blowing that big of a lead this early" ... but it was the 2009 donkeys that came prematurely. (rimshot!) They were 3 clear of the field after six weeks, with tiebreaker over the Chargers in hand.
And finished 3 games behind.
Nothing is guaranteed in this league, other than my over-obsessing about anything Chiefs or Jets related. This week, I hope to look at the Texans numbers (like with Indy last week), I hope to nail the Chiefs pick for the 4th time in 5 tries this year ...
And if I don't have viewing options come Sunday, there might be the first "live blog" of the season on Sunday. If not this week, then definitely for oakland on November 7th. The raiders and donkeys, I am not comfortable viewing with living people, it's that big a deal to me. Especially if we're in the drivers seat going into it ...
Monday, October 11, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
the chiefs prediction
"There are places in this world that aren't made out of stone. There's
something inside that they can't take away from you. That they can't get
to, that they can't touch".
"What are you talking about?"
"Hope".
"Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good
thing ever dies".
-- Andy Dufresne, "Shawshank Redemption".
There are those who will argue that this is just another game on the
schedule. Not any more important than, say, our upcoming game at Houston
next week. Or the back-to-back roadies at oakland and denver to open
November.
And to those people, I say, you're wrong.
This is not just another game.
This is the game that checks the character, the makeup, of the 2010 Kansas
City Chiefs. This is the game that will define who the 2010 Kansas City
Chiefs are.
Because come 3:30pm on Sunday afternoon, we'll know exactly what the 2010
Kansas City Chiefs are. Either this is a legitimate playoff team, a rising
power in the AFC that cannot be ignored or dismissed by the national media
and football experts any longer ... or I'm completely clueless about who
the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs are.
Sure, you can enter this Showdown Sunday with disbelief. That's certainly
your right. You can sit there on your couch, entertain every negative,
draining thought about these guys. You can believe the peyton manning
hype, buy into the "whoa, the Colts lost last week, they're going to really
come out ready to win" ridiculous bullsh*t of Chris Berman, and envision a
31-10 beatdown that so many in the national and local media seem to think
is going to happen.
Or ... you can buy in to what these boys are selling. You can believe that
what we've seen so far is reality, its not an illusion, its not a mirage.
You can look at the statistics, the facts, that point out just how
ridiculously good this defense is, how awesome our rushing attack is, how
dominant our special teams are, how insanely ready-to-perform-now our draft
class was, and how completely overwhelmed the Colts are in the coaching
aspect of this game, and you can hope. You can envision it. TJ offtackle.
Charles in the flat. Flowers streaking down the sideline for a Pick Six as
peyton manning displays the face that made him famous. Dex refusing to
fair catch the punt, turning a corner, blowing past the coverage ... to the
40 ... the 30 ... the 20 ...
You can hope.
It's your call.
But me?
Hell yes, I hope.
Hell yes, I believe.
Hell yes, we're winning this game.
I am fully aware that this is only week five. Sometimes, though, week five
defines your season. Think back seven years ago, to that magical first
Sunday in October, 2003. It's a game, it's a day, I will never forget as
long as I live. In case you've forgotten the play that defined the season
for those AFC West Champion Chiefs:
(kevin harlan) the punt by micah knorr. Dante Hall back at his 10 and
fields it ... surrounded by a team of broncos ... but he's around the
corner and he finds a seam!
(randy cross) he's gone!
(kevin harlan) one man to beat and that's knorr ... ladies and gentlemen,
you are seeing something that has never happened before in the National
Football League! Seven returns in ten games! Incredible!
If you were there that day, just close your eyes, and remember. I remember
every freaking detail about that return, right down to me simply collapsing
in my seat as Dante blew past micah knorr, and beginning to cry. Yeah, I
can admit it, I've cried at Chiefs games before. And I will again.
Because for the first time in at least a couple seasons, these guys matter.
The games we play on Sunday, actually are important. We, us, the Red and
Gold, our "Overachiefers", we matter to more than just some semi-delusional
hot-as-hell 33 year old in south Kansas City.
And as that semi-delusional hot-as-hell 33 year old, I think that's pretty
damned cool.
If you're a Chiefs fan, this game SHOULD have added meaning to you. We're
facing the AFC's best team from last season. In their home. I'm not
surprised the Colts are favored -- they should be. They're not chumps.
This isn't some second rate football team that you schedule because you
know they're horribly coached, horribly prepared, have little to no talent,
and you're going to win by 50 if you simply remember to show up. The Colts
ain't KU. They're a team that's won 12 or more games 8 straight years.
They've won their division 7 of the last 8.
And of course, they're quarterbacked by peyton manning, a man that is so
great, so invincible, so utterly undefeatable, so supremely intelligent,
that we should just hit our knees now and verbally fellate him just for
allowing us to tune in and watch him perform every Sunday.
(In the interest of full disclosure -- I DESPISE peyton manning. Not
dislike, not don't care for, not "aw, that guy always beats us, that sucks"
level of contempt. I DESPISE him. There is no athlete I have ever hated
as much as I DESPISE peyton manning. And I am fully aware that I have
stated on multiple occasions that the day john elway is buried, I am
showing up at his gravesite just to piss on his tombstone. I hate john
elway. I DESPISE peyton manning. Just so we're clear on that).
So far, we've beaten every challenge thrown at us. We are the only
undefeated team in the NFL. Not the Jets, not the Ravens, not the
Steelers, not the Patriots, not even our esteemed opponents on Sunday.
Only one team has faced every opponent thrown at it, and beat them all.
That's us. The Chiefs.
But as the great Ric Flair would note, "To be the best? WOO! You gotta
beat the best!"
Come Sunday, we're gonna do it.
The late, great Bobby Thompson, he of the "Shot Heard Round the World", was
asked once what made him special. Why was his home run so fondly
remembered? He was nobody special. A semi-decent shortstop. But no Hall
of Famer, no game-changer, nothing more than a couple lines in the
historical register of the Giants franchise.
Thompson: "No, I'm not anybody special. But I came through. Plenty of
guys have been in my situation, a chance to win the game, a chance to win a
championship. And failed. But I didn't. I delivered. That's why people
remember".
(And yes, I am fully aware that he also cheated by stealing the pitching
signs. Just like peyton manning cheats every damned time he's in the
shotgun formation by moving towards the line of scrimmage prior to the ball
being snapped. Watch him on Sunday. It drives me absolutely bat sh*t
crazy. he will ALWAYS move forward before the ball is snapped. Its a
false start. And nobody ever calls him on it. Just once, I wish a head
coach would charge the field after peyton gets away with it for the first
time, and refuse to leave until either the refs start flagging peyton for
his blatant cheating, or some nice guys in security vests drag said coach
off the field. Sadly, it won't happen. And nobody will ever call him on
it. Why? Because he's peyton manning, the Jesus of this generation
apparently. he can walk on water, and he can do no wrong. Well, other
than this:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/brennan/2003-11-06-brennan_x.htm
Yeah, I hate his f*cking guts).
Sunday, the Chiefs are going to break through. Sunday, this team will go
from "intriguing" to "memorable". Because we're going to roll up to the
gates of the enemy, and in the words of Brian Billick, prior to his
shock-the-world 2000 Ravens traveling to Nashville for a playoff game
against the heavily favored Titans, we're gonna "come in screaming like a
banshee, and demand to beat the son of a b*tch that lives there!"
Its only week five? An early October game can't write the script for a
season? Flash back fifteen years ago, to the loudest moment Arrowhead
Stadium has ever witnessed. I know I joked about "Tuesday Morning
Football" when we faced the Chargers four weeks ago, but in the words of
Dan Dierdorf, we had "seen it before". Week 6 1995. When early on a
Tuesday morning ...
(dan dierdorf) boy did he loft that one!
(al michaels) the rookie Vanover fields it ...
(frank gifford) uh oh ...
(al michaels) Vanover up past the thirty!
(dan dierdorf) he's gone!
(al michaels) Vanover is almost gone and now he is ... officially gone!
(dan dierdorf) no flags! This one's over!
It's still my favorite Chiefs play of all time. I cry simply hearing it.
Granted, some of that is because the 1995 Chiefs are my favorite team of
all time. A team with 6 win talent on paper, that somehow won 13 games.
But still. Don't tell me an early game can't define a season. Don't tell
me an up-and-coming Chiefs team can't scratch, scrap, and claw its way to
an improbable, unbelievable victory against the best the AFC has to offer.
We've been there. We've done that.
And Sunday, we're gonna do it again. One more time.
You say, "but Stevo! All your examples are neat, but they're all home
games! Of course the Chiefs can beat the best at Arrowhead, but how about
the road? We're going to Indy. We're doomed!"
The hell we are.
This is a franchise that has hit the road early in the season ... and
beaten some damned good football teams. Remember 2000? Week four at Real
Mile High? Man, did we close that place down in style, as a 1-2 Chiefs
team took the donkeys to the woodshed, posting nine sacks, five turnovers,
and a late Grbac to Derrick Alexander bomb to save the season 24-23.
2007, an 11 1/2 point underdog Chiefs team, at 1-2, came into San Diego.
After a night of (allegedly) partying with some questionable women with
loose morals and (allegedly) enjoying some recreational drugs of an illegal
variety, those Chiefs came out and destroyed the Chargers 30-16.
Go back to that magical 2003 season, a week before the showdown with
denver. When the Chiefs rolled into Baltimore a pretty sizeable underdog,
and took it to the Ravens on yet another Dante Hall return for a touchdown.
Or a year later, a game that for my group of tailgaters and fans, was the
end of an era sadly. But an 0-3 Chiefs team, traveling to Baltimore on a
Monday night, and we just obliterated them. Ray Lewis had a Derrick
Thomas-esque meltdown, drawing three personal fouls. The Ravens couldn't
stop us. They were completely outcoached, outplayed, and depantsed in
front of the nation. By us, the Chiefs.
And the enduring image, after the Chiefs had run right over this alleged
great defense, after we'd matched up mano y mano and beaten those guys,
humiliated them on their home field, there was Gunther looking over at the
Ravens offensive coaches in the next booth, and repeatedly screaming two
beautiful words to them.
"F*ck you."
Just like that 2004 Chiefs team, this one is going to go on the road, into
the most hostile of environments, to face a damned good football team, and
they're going to emerge victorious.
To go back to the "Shawshank Redemption" well one last time, I close with
Red's final words:
"I find I'm so excited, I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my
head. I think it's the excitement only a free man can feel, a free man at
the start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope I can
make it across the border. I hope to see my friend again and shake his
hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams.
I hope".
Chiefs fans, I hope. I believe. And come 3:30pm on Sunday afternoon, I
have a feeling a whole lot of people are going to be sharing those
feelings.
This Week's Upset of the Week? Screw the usual reply, it's not strong enough.
"Take a MOTHER f*cking guess!!!"
Chiefs (+8 1/2) 27, at Colts 14.
Believe. Hope. Hope is a good thing! And no good thing ever dies ...
something inside that they can't take away from you. That they can't get
to, that they can't touch".
"What are you talking about?"
"Hope".
"Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good
thing ever dies".
-- Andy Dufresne, "Shawshank Redemption".
There are those who will argue that this is just another game on the
schedule. Not any more important than, say, our upcoming game at Houston
next week. Or the back-to-back roadies at oakland and denver to open
November.
And to those people, I say, you're wrong.
This is not just another game.
This is the game that checks the character, the makeup, of the 2010 Kansas
City Chiefs. This is the game that will define who the 2010 Kansas City
Chiefs are.
Because come 3:30pm on Sunday afternoon, we'll know exactly what the 2010
Kansas City Chiefs are. Either this is a legitimate playoff team, a rising
power in the AFC that cannot be ignored or dismissed by the national media
and football experts any longer ... or I'm completely clueless about who
the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs are.
Sure, you can enter this Showdown Sunday with disbelief. That's certainly
your right. You can sit there on your couch, entertain every negative,
draining thought about these guys. You can believe the peyton manning
hype, buy into the "whoa, the Colts lost last week, they're going to really
come out ready to win" ridiculous bullsh*t of Chris Berman, and envision a
31-10 beatdown that so many in the national and local media seem to think
is going to happen.
Or ... you can buy in to what these boys are selling. You can believe that
what we've seen so far is reality, its not an illusion, its not a mirage.
You can look at the statistics, the facts, that point out just how
ridiculously good this defense is, how awesome our rushing attack is, how
dominant our special teams are, how insanely ready-to-perform-now our draft
class was, and how completely overwhelmed the Colts are in the coaching
aspect of this game, and you can hope. You can envision it. TJ offtackle.
Charles in the flat. Flowers streaking down the sideline for a Pick Six as
peyton manning displays the face that made him famous. Dex refusing to
fair catch the punt, turning a corner, blowing past the coverage ... to the
40 ... the 30 ... the 20 ...
You can hope.
It's your call.
But me?
Hell yes, I hope.
Hell yes, I believe.
Hell yes, we're winning this game.
I am fully aware that this is only week five. Sometimes, though, week five
defines your season. Think back seven years ago, to that magical first
Sunday in October, 2003. It's a game, it's a day, I will never forget as
long as I live. In case you've forgotten the play that defined the season
for those AFC West Champion Chiefs:
(kevin harlan) the punt by micah knorr. Dante Hall back at his 10 and
fields it ... surrounded by a team of broncos ... but he's around the
corner and he finds a seam!
(randy cross) he's gone!
(kevin harlan) one man to beat and that's knorr ... ladies and gentlemen,
you are seeing something that has never happened before in the National
Football League! Seven returns in ten games! Incredible!
If you were there that day, just close your eyes, and remember. I remember
every freaking detail about that return, right down to me simply collapsing
in my seat as Dante blew past micah knorr, and beginning to cry. Yeah, I
can admit it, I've cried at Chiefs games before. And I will again.
Because for the first time in at least a couple seasons, these guys matter.
The games we play on Sunday, actually are important. We, us, the Red and
Gold, our "Overachiefers", we matter to more than just some semi-delusional
hot-as-hell 33 year old in south Kansas City.
And as that semi-delusional hot-as-hell 33 year old, I think that's pretty
damned cool.
If you're a Chiefs fan, this game SHOULD have added meaning to you. We're
facing the AFC's best team from last season. In their home. I'm not
surprised the Colts are favored -- they should be. They're not chumps.
This isn't some second rate football team that you schedule because you
know they're horribly coached, horribly prepared, have little to no talent,
and you're going to win by 50 if you simply remember to show up. The Colts
ain't KU. They're a team that's won 12 or more games 8 straight years.
They've won their division 7 of the last 8.
And of course, they're quarterbacked by peyton manning, a man that is so
great, so invincible, so utterly undefeatable, so supremely intelligent,
that we should just hit our knees now and verbally fellate him just for
allowing us to tune in and watch him perform every Sunday.
(In the interest of full disclosure -- I DESPISE peyton manning. Not
dislike, not don't care for, not "aw, that guy always beats us, that sucks"
level of contempt. I DESPISE him. There is no athlete I have ever hated
as much as I DESPISE peyton manning. And I am fully aware that I have
stated on multiple occasions that the day john elway is buried, I am
showing up at his gravesite just to piss on his tombstone. I hate john
elway. I DESPISE peyton manning. Just so we're clear on that).
So far, we've beaten every challenge thrown at us. We are the only
undefeated team in the NFL. Not the Jets, not the Ravens, not the
Steelers, not the Patriots, not even our esteemed opponents on Sunday.
Only one team has faced every opponent thrown at it, and beat them all.
That's us. The Chiefs.
But as the great Ric Flair would note, "To be the best? WOO! You gotta
beat the best!"
Come Sunday, we're gonna do it.
The late, great Bobby Thompson, he of the "Shot Heard Round the World", was
asked once what made him special. Why was his home run so fondly
remembered? He was nobody special. A semi-decent shortstop. But no Hall
of Famer, no game-changer, nothing more than a couple lines in the
historical register of the Giants franchise.
Thompson: "No, I'm not anybody special. But I came through. Plenty of
guys have been in my situation, a chance to win the game, a chance to win a
championship. And failed. But I didn't. I delivered. That's why people
remember".
(And yes, I am fully aware that he also cheated by stealing the pitching
signs. Just like peyton manning cheats every damned time he's in the
shotgun formation by moving towards the line of scrimmage prior to the ball
being snapped. Watch him on Sunday. It drives me absolutely bat sh*t
crazy. he will ALWAYS move forward before the ball is snapped. Its a
false start. And nobody ever calls him on it. Just once, I wish a head
coach would charge the field after peyton gets away with it for the first
time, and refuse to leave until either the refs start flagging peyton for
his blatant cheating, or some nice guys in security vests drag said coach
off the field. Sadly, it won't happen. And nobody will ever call him on
it. Why? Because he's peyton manning, the Jesus of this generation
apparently. he can walk on water, and he can do no wrong. Well, other
than this:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/brennan/2003-11-06-brennan_x.htm
Yeah, I hate his f*cking guts).
Sunday, the Chiefs are going to break through. Sunday, this team will go
from "intriguing" to "memorable". Because we're going to roll up to the
gates of the enemy, and in the words of Brian Billick, prior to his
shock-the-world 2000 Ravens traveling to Nashville for a playoff game
against the heavily favored Titans, we're gonna "come in screaming like a
banshee, and demand to beat the son of a b*tch that lives there!"
Its only week five? An early October game can't write the script for a
season? Flash back fifteen years ago, to the loudest moment Arrowhead
Stadium has ever witnessed. I know I joked about "Tuesday Morning
Football" when we faced the Chargers four weeks ago, but in the words of
Dan Dierdorf, we had "seen it before". Week 6 1995. When early on a
Tuesday morning ...
(dan dierdorf) boy did he loft that one!
(al michaels) the rookie Vanover fields it ...
(frank gifford) uh oh ...
(al michaels) Vanover up past the thirty!
(dan dierdorf) he's gone!
(al michaels) Vanover is almost gone and now he is ... officially gone!
(dan dierdorf) no flags! This one's over!
It's still my favorite Chiefs play of all time. I cry simply hearing it.
Granted, some of that is because the 1995 Chiefs are my favorite team of
all time. A team with 6 win talent on paper, that somehow won 13 games.
But still. Don't tell me an early game can't define a season. Don't tell
me an up-and-coming Chiefs team can't scratch, scrap, and claw its way to
an improbable, unbelievable victory against the best the AFC has to offer.
We've been there. We've done that.
And Sunday, we're gonna do it again. One more time.
You say, "but Stevo! All your examples are neat, but they're all home
games! Of course the Chiefs can beat the best at Arrowhead, but how about
the road? We're going to Indy. We're doomed!"
The hell we are.
This is a franchise that has hit the road early in the season ... and
beaten some damned good football teams. Remember 2000? Week four at Real
Mile High? Man, did we close that place down in style, as a 1-2 Chiefs
team took the donkeys to the woodshed, posting nine sacks, five turnovers,
and a late Grbac to Derrick Alexander bomb to save the season 24-23.
2007, an 11 1/2 point underdog Chiefs team, at 1-2, came into San Diego.
After a night of (allegedly) partying with some questionable women with
loose morals and (allegedly) enjoying some recreational drugs of an illegal
variety, those Chiefs came out and destroyed the Chargers 30-16.
Go back to that magical 2003 season, a week before the showdown with
denver. When the Chiefs rolled into Baltimore a pretty sizeable underdog,
and took it to the Ravens on yet another Dante Hall return for a touchdown.
Or a year later, a game that for my group of tailgaters and fans, was the
end of an era sadly. But an 0-3 Chiefs team, traveling to Baltimore on a
Monday night, and we just obliterated them. Ray Lewis had a Derrick
Thomas-esque meltdown, drawing three personal fouls. The Ravens couldn't
stop us. They were completely outcoached, outplayed, and depantsed in
front of the nation. By us, the Chiefs.
And the enduring image, after the Chiefs had run right over this alleged
great defense, after we'd matched up mano y mano and beaten those guys,
humiliated them on their home field, there was Gunther looking over at the
Ravens offensive coaches in the next booth, and repeatedly screaming two
beautiful words to them.
"F*ck you."
Just like that 2004 Chiefs team, this one is going to go on the road, into
the most hostile of environments, to face a damned good football team, and
they're going to emerge victorious.
To go back to the "Shawshank Redemption" well one last time, I close with
Red's final words:
"I find I'm so excited, I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my
head. I think it's the excitement only a free man can feel, a free man at
the start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope I can
make it across the border. I hope to see my friend again and shake his
hand. I hope the Pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams.
I hope".
Chiefs fans, I hope. I believe. And come 3:30pm on Sunday afternoon, I
have a feeling a whole lot of people are going to be sharing those
feelings.
This Week's Upset of the Week? Screw the usual reply, it's not strong enough.
"Take a MOTHER f*cking guess!!!"
Chiefs (+8 1/2) 27, at Colts 14.
Believe. Hope. Hope is a good thing! And no good thing ever dies ...
Thursday, October 7, 2010
the week five predictions
"Listen coach (faurot). We came here to kick your ass! And that's exactly what we're gonna do!" -- Legendary KU Coach Don Fambrough.
-----------------------
Last Week SU: 8-6-0
Season to Date SU: 40-22-0
Last Week ATS: 7-7-0
Season to Date ATS: 31-29-2
Last Week's Upset of the Week: you're welcome, denver fans.
Season to Date Upset of the Week: 2-2
This Week's Upset of the Week: do I do it? stay tuned ...
The Non-Chiefs Predictions:
* broncos (+7) 34, at Ravens 13.
* at Bills (pick) 3, Jaguars 2.
* at Lions (-3) 27, Rams 20.
* at Browns (+3) 24, Falcons 20.
* at Bengals 21, Bucs (+6 1/2) 20.
* Bears (-3) 24, at Panthers 10.
* at Redskins (+2 1/2) 38, Packers 30.
* at Texans (-3) 34, Giants 7.
* at Cardinals (+6 1/2) 24, Saints 21.
* at raiders (+6) 13, Chargers 10.
* at Cowboys (-6 1/2) 38, Titans 20.
* Eagles (+3) 24, at 49ers 20.
* at Jets (-4) 56, Vikings 13.
The Chiefs Prediction:
Tomorrow, I will try to put into words why I feel as I do. I literally have been staring at a blank Word Doc for 90 minutes at this point. I know what I want to say, I just don't know how to convey it.
So ... stay tuned ... but I'll just say this:
"Chiefs fans need to get over themselves. This is not a litmus test. It's Week 5" -- Gregg Rosenthal, nbcsports.com
That guy couldn't be more wrong ...
-----------------------
Last Week SU: 8-6-0
Season to Date SU: 40-22-0
Last Week ATS: 7-7-0
Season to Date ATS: 31-29-2
Last Week's Upset of the Week: you're welcome, denver fans.
Season to Date Upset of the Week: 2-2
This Week's Upset of the Week: do I do it? stay tuned ...
The Non-Chiefs Predictions:
* broncos (+7) 34, at Ravens 13.
* at Bills (pick) 3, Jaguars 2.
* at Lions (-3) 27, Rams 20.
* at Browns (+3) 24, Falcons 20.
* at Bengals 21, Bucs (+6 1/2) 20.
* Bears (-3) 24, at Panthers 10.
* at Redskins (+2 1/2) 38, Packers 30.
* at Texans (-3) 34, Giants 7.
* at Cardinals (+6 1/2) 24, Saints 21.
* at raiders (+6) 13, Chargers 10.
* at Cowboys (-6 1/2) 38, Titans 20.
* Eagles (+3) 24, at 49ers 20.
* at Jets (-4) 56, Vikings 13.
The Chiefs Prediction:
Tomorrow, I will try to put into words why I feel as I do. I literally have been staring at a blank Word Doc for 90 minutes at this point. I know what I want to say, I just don't know how to convey it.
So ... stay tuned ... but I'll just say this:
"Chiefs fans need to get over themselves. This is not a litmus test. It's Week 5" -- Gregg Rosenthal, nbcsports.com
That guy couldn't be more wrong ...
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
inside the numbers: chiefs colts
There are two things I have absolute faith in. Well, ok, there's a lot
more than two things that I have absolute faith in, but for this, I'm going
to focus on two:
1. Statistics never lie. Never. You just sometimes really have to look to
find the reason why something is the way that it is.
2. History is a great teacher. Those who fail to learn from the past, are
doomed to repeat it.
The Chiefs absolutely, positively, without question "can win" this game
Sunday at Indianapolis. (Note that I did not say "will win". Gotta give
you a reason to come back on Friday for the picks).
But, contrary to what the national media, the local media, the
possibly-drunk, hot-as-hell 33 year old tossing washers in Lot G says (hey,
wait a minute ...), ignoring all their reasons why the Chiefs are (somehow)
THE biggest underdogs on the board this week, I offer you this:
The Chiefs CAN win this game, for two primary reasons.
1. The Colts defense (aka "statistics").
2. The St. Louis Rams (aka "history").
(2) doesn't make much sense on the surface, I know. History? How is
history a helper for us here? The Chiefs have never won at Indy, posting a
perfect 0-5 record there. The Colts have won 12 or more games 8 straight
seasons. They've won 7 of the last 8 AFC South titles, have reached the
Super Bowl 2 of the last 4 years, and have a championship to show for it.
The Chiefs haven't won more than 4 games in a season since 2006, haven't
won more than 3 in a row since 2004, and have beaten exactly one team on
the road since 2003 that had a .500 or better record when we faced them
(denver, last year ... in the midst of losing 8 of 10 to close their season
at .500. Not exactly a "statement victory").
That ... and what the hell do the Rams and Chiefs have in common? Other
than a horrendously bad stretch of football, a couple traded coaches and
players, and a common state border?
I'll get back to (2). Let's open with (1), shall we?
The Colts, to put it bluntly, absolutely suck at the four main things a
defense needs to excel at: sacks, turnovers, yardage allowed, and third
down conversion rate.
(I know "points allowed" is critically important ... but if you're
routinely pressuring the quarterback, you're getting off the field on third
down, you're at least even in the turnover margin, and you're not letting
teams march up and down the field on you, odds are, your "points allowed"
will be in the top 10.)
Let's start with the first category, sacks. Perhaps (and I don't agree
with this), perhaps this is the most important defensive stat, because if
you can pressure the quarterback consistently, it hides a multitude of
other sins.
So let's establish a fact right off the bat. The Colts CANNOT rush the
quarterback. Period. They've faced three relatively immobile passers so
far (Schaub, E Manning, orton), plus the relatively mobile (yet talentally
challenged) David Garrard.
So far, the Colts have four sacks. Four. No, that is not a typo -- Tamba
Hali has nearly matched the ENTIRE Colts pass rush in four fewer quarters
of football.
Here is how they got to four:
(Note: all stats to follow pulled from nfl.com's game recaps, play by play
logs, and/or team statistics pages. I'm good when it comes to useless
facts and information, but I'm not nfl.com good).
1. Schaub sacked on 1st and 10 at the Indy 31, 6:02 left, 1st quarter.
Houston would kick a field goal on this drive to make the score 10-0
Texans.
2. Schaub sacked on 3rd and 12 at the Houston 22, 4:12 left, 2nd quarter.
Houston punted to end the drive, score was 13-0 Texans.
3. E Manning sacked on 3rd and 1 at the Indy 48, 1:17 left, 2nd quarter.
Indy 17, Giants 0. Manning fumbled on the play, Colts recovered, then
knelt out the half. Score was 17-0 Colts.
4. Orton sacked on 1st and 10 at the denver 20, first play of the 3rd
quarter. denver scored a touchdown four plays later to make the score
13-10 Colts.
That's it. Four sacks in four games. Two of the four had no impact on the
drive -- Houston kicked a field goal, and denver scored a touchdown. A
third one was on 3rd and long; even if they hadn't sacked Schaub in that
situation, the odds are Houston would have thrown incomplete or short of
the down-to-gain, and punted anyways. (Teams convert 3rd and greater than
8 less than 15% of the time).
Only the sack and fumble recovery of Eli Manning can be counted as an
impact play ... but is it really? Already up 17-0, right before the half?
It might have aborted any thoughts of a Giants comeback, but anyone who
watched that game knew it was already over by the time Manning was sacked
and Freeney recovered the fumble.
Furthermore, look at when they recorded those sacks. Mid first quarter,
late second quarter, late second quarter, first play of the second half.
Uuh, fellas? That's nice and all ... but where the hell are the fourth
quarter momentum changers? Where's the critical tackle behind the line on
3rd and 6 when you're up 2 late in the 4th quarter (like KC got at
Cleveland)? Where's the goalline stand directly caused by the opposing
team's offensive line being unable to block your front four (think KC / San
Diego)? That's right -- it ain't there. Four sacks through four games is
awful enough on its own. It looks even worse when you put it into a proper
context.
Now, pay attention. Because part two of the stats lesson is about to
begin. And to be honest, this is the part that both shocked me ... and has
me happier than a boozer on a winery tour in Central Missouri (hey, wait a
minute ... come on, stop taking cheap shots at yourself ...)
When you can't generate a pass rush, you're inviting teams to open it up
against you. You're begging teams to toss the rock down the field.
Amazingly ... only denver has really done this so far:
Schaub: 9/17, 107 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 67.3 rating.
E Manning: 13/24, 161 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 85.6 rating.
orton: 37/57, 476 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 89.5 rating. (More on this anomaly
coming up).
Garrard: 17/22, 163 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 127.7 rating.
Average: 19/30, 227 yards, 1.5 TD, 1 INT, 92.5 rating.
Which begs the question: why aren't teams taking advantage of the Colts
lack of a pass rush (and questionable secondary due to injury concerns)?
Easy. They can't stop the run. At all:
Texans: 42 carries, 257 yards, 3 TD.
Giants: 43 carries, 160 yards, 0 TD.
donkeys: 18 carries, 47 yards, 0 TD. (Again, stay tuned. This game makes
ZERO sense statistically ... until you dig deeper. Then, it makes PERFECT
sense ...)
Jaguars: 35 carries, 174 yards, 2 TD.
Average: 35 carries, 160 yards, 1 TD.
Add the averages together. 160 yards on the ground, 227 in the air.
They're giving up almost 400 yards a game! I don't care how good your
offense is, you aren't going to be better than .500 if you can't get off
the field defensively. If you are routinely giving up long drives for
points, you're going to lose more often than you win. Ask the 2002 Chiefs
-- after four games, the Chiefs had topped 40 points twice, had topped 30
points 3 times ... and sat at 2-2 because their defense had also given up
30 plus points three times, and could not stop anyone on third down.
The Colts D hasn't been "32 Defense" bad yet ... but they're inching closer
to that mark of distinction. They've given up 30 plus twice in four weeks
(and the Jaguars aren't exactly an "offensive juggernaut" or a "legitimate
playoff contender" at this point). Week one they couldn't stop the run.
Week two, a blowout victory at home ... but the Giants still rolled up over
330 yards of offense. Week three, if denver hadn't crapped their pants at
five crucial junctions (detailed below), they likely win a game in which
they dropped 500 plus yards of offense on the Colts. And last week, the
Jaguars were virtually unstoppable. Yes, the Jacksonville Freaking
Jaguars.
When the Colts D needs to make a play, to get Manning and his boys back on
the field, the bottom line is, they can't. Or at least haven't so far.
(And as a quick side note: did you all catch the Colts end-game strategory
on Sunday? Their head coach called a timeout to FORCE JACKSONVILLE TO TRY
TO SCORE when the game was tied, and the Jaguars were letting the clock run
out to go to overtime! Jim Caldwell admitted as much. He had NO
confidence his defense would hold if they lost the coin flip, so he decided
to try to steal the game late by stopping the Jaguars at midfield, then
trying a long field goal as time expired.
Yes, I know, ignore the ass backwards logic of having so little faith in
your defense, that you put the game in the hands of your defense. Because
I completely understood (and somewhat agreed with) the decision. Isn't
this what we wanted the 2002 Chiefs team to do? We, the fans, knew that
defense couldn't stop a quadrapalegic from running for 150 and a couple
scores. We, the fans, knew the only way the Chiefs could win most weeks
was to find innovative ways to get the offense onto the field. Whatever
you think of Jim Caldwell, and I don't think much of him, give him credit.
He KNOWS how awful his defensive unit is, and is willing to do ANYTHING to
get his unit that can win him a game (the offense) onto the field. Too bad
Richard A. Vermeil never figured that out during his tenure here. Back to
the post!)
The most damning stat though, is third down conversion rate. If you're
giving up more than half of your third down attempts, you're in a world of
trouble. (For comparison's sake, the best defenses tend to give up 30% on
third down. Currently, the Ravens lead the league in 3rd down stops at
24%. Second best? Your Kansas City Chiefs, at 27%). Let's look at the
stats:
Texans: 6/11 (and 1/1 on 4th down).
Giants: 3/11 (and 0/1 on 4th down).
donkeys: 5/15 (and 1/4 on 4th down).
Jaguars: 9/13 (did not attempt a 4th down conversion).
Average: 6/12 (and 1/2 on 4th down).
Now, 50% is not nearly as bad as I expected, to be fair. But that's for a
reason. In statistics, you always have an "outlier". In this case, that
denver game from week three that, on the surface, defies logic. denver
rolled up 500 plus yards of offense. The Colts defense was on the field
for nearly 36 minutes. And yet, they won comfortably.
How, you ask? The idiocy of josh mcdaniels' playcalling, that's how.
As a special "Inside the Numbers" within an "Inside the Numbers" ... wow,
that sounds even more retarded than it looks ... anyways, here is every
single donkeys play call inside the Red Zone from that game, and why it
cost them a game that pretty much every freaking statistic known to mankind
says they should have won going away:
(really, if you're a denver fan ... well, seek professional help. They are
the denver broncos. But seriously, if you're a denver fan, and you weren't
chucking empty beer or whiskey bottles at your television after witnessing
this game, I'd question how big of a fan you are. Someone should have been
fired over this performance, the play calling was (is?) THAT awful ...)
* Drive one: 2nd quarter, 5:18 remaining, Indy up 13-0.
1st and goal at the 1: maroney up the middle, no gain.
2nd and goal at the 1: maroney up the middle, no gain. Timeout Indy.
3rd and goal at the 1: orton incomplete, threw it away.
4th and goal at the 1: maroney off tackle, no gain. Replay overturned a TD
ruling on the field.
You can't fault the first three downs play calling, to be honest. My only
b*tch would be that you pound it again on third down. Why risk the INT and
the sure points a field goal gives you?
(Because josh mcdaniels refused to take the free points. Sweet Jesus,
would this bite them in the ass later on ... wait, I'm getting ahead of
myself ...)
So first three downs, perfectly acceptable, and certainly a little unlucky
given the situation. But fourth down? First, why are you not kicking the
field goal at this point? Take the points, its still the first half. (And
spare me the "but they were at the one yard line" argument. Exactly.
Three plays already, and they hadn't gotten in).
But if you are going to go for it, why in the hell are you running sideways
at the goalline? Pound it up the middle again, or if you're going to try
to take it outside, roll the QB out (you know, that designed QB rollout
that the donkeys have been running to perfection since the Dan Reeves
days?), so he can either take off ... or have a passing option! (Think
Matt Cassel on goal-to-go against San Diego four weeks ago. This is the
EXACT play Charlie Weis called -- Cassel rollout, easy TD lob to Moeaki.
Good God, josh. We use the same f*cking playbook, for crying out loud. To
think I used to believe we were screwed for a decade because of your
presence. Now? I just thank God you're there. I love being wrong about
people sometimes).
* Drive two: 2nd quarter, :28 remaining, Indy up 13-0
1st and 10 at the 16: orton to gaffney, out of bounds at the 7.
2nd and 1 at the 7: orton incomplete.
3rd and 1 at the 7: orton incomplete.
4th and 1 at the 7: field goal to end the half. 13-3 Indy.
On the surface, this looks perfectly acceptable ... but that's why I'm
here. Because one obvious question jumps out looking at 2nd and 3rd down.
Why did denver not run it on one of the yard-to-go situations? Aah. That,
I can answer.
(Because they had pissed away ALL THREE of their timeouts earlier in the
drive!)
The drive started at the denver 39, with 1:49 to play. There is NO
justifiable reason to even BEGIN to think about taking a timeout until the
clock is under 40 seconds. NONE, save for being required to due to injury
in the last two minutes of the half, as per the NFL rule book.
denver used timeout number one at the 1:10 mark ... after orton plowed up
the gut on 3rd and 1 for a first down. What the f*ck? What justifiable
reason is there to call a timeout here? You were in a jumbo formation, you
pounded it for the first, who cares if 15 seconds bleed off? You'd much
rather trade the time with 1:10 to go, than find yourself up sh*ts creek
with :20 to go, like would eventually happen.
denver used timeout number two at the :55 mark ... after a 30 yard
completion to the Indy 30. This is justifiable ... if you hadn't just used
your first timeout ON THE PRIOR PLAY! Really? You don't have two or three
plays called in the huddle inside of two minutes to play? Unreal.
denver used its final timeout at the :28 mark ... after a 5 yard completion
on 2nd and 1. This makes some sense ... only, the reason it had to use the
timeout is because eddie royal failed to get out of bounds. ed, buddy?
You're inside of 30 seconds to go, running a crossing pattern designed to
pick up 3 yards, the first down ... and stop the clock by getting out of
bounds!
Oy.
But wait! It gets better!
* Drive three: 3rd Quarter, 3:50 to play, 20-10 Indy.
1st and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete.
2nd and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete.
3rd and 10 at the 17: orton complete to royal.
4th and 9 at the 16: field goal. 20-13 Indy.
Can't blame denver for taking the points. I'd have done the same thing.
What I would NOT have done, however, is thrown a 1 yard pass on 3rd and 10,
and trusted the wide receiver to make something happen. That's a play you
call on 1st down. Not on 3rd. So now we're at 12 snaps inside the 20, and
denver has 6 points, 0 first downs, and 2 plays with positive yardage to
show for it. That's just super coaching guys, super job. And we're STILL
not done.
* Drive Four: 4th quarter, 7:45 to play, 20-13 Indy.
1st and 10 at the 19: buckhalter offtackle for three.
2nd and 7 at the 16: orton incomplete, intended for thomas.
3rd and 7 at the 16: orton complete to gaffney for four yards.
4th and 3 at the 12: orton incomplete, intended for lloyd.
Two nit-picks here. (1) again, I hate throwing it short of the yard to
gain on a makeable third down, and then betting on the receiver to make a
move or bust a tackle to pick up what you need. It's stupid. It's
absolutely stupid. The only person I know that hates this more than me, is
John Madden. And if a Hall of Fame Coach and broadcaster whose video game
revolutionized the sport, if HE thinks its stupid, I feel very safe in
defending my opinion that it is stupid. (2) Go back to the first Red Zone
drive. Here's where not kicking the field goal there bites you in the ass.
denver almost has to go in the position they find themselves in, because a
field goal doesn't change the dynamic here. If you kick the field goal,
you're down 4. You still need a stop and a touchdown. So, in this spot,
given this exact circumstance, mcdaniels made the right decision to go for
it.
IF, however, you took the points on the first drive like you should have,
then a field goal here cuts it to 1 ... meaning you only need a score to
win. ANY score. A touchdown, a field goal, a safety. ANYTHING wins it
for you, had you kicked on drive one and kicked here. It's the little
things that bite you in the ass in this game. Like not taking gimme points
in the first half.
"But Stevo! But Stevo!" I can hear you screaming. "Indy scored on their
next drive! denver still would have needed a touchdown anyways!" To which
I reply ... true. But instead of only needing a touchdown, they needed two
now, which directly affected the play calling on ...
* Drive Five: 4th Quarter, 2:23 to play, Indy 27-13.
1st and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete to the end zone.
2nd and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete to the end zone.
3rd and 10 at the 17: whoops. False start. Make that
3rd and 15 at the 22: orton to buckhalter for two. Timeout denver.
4th and 13 at the 20: orton incomplete to the end zone.
The play calling here was fine, given the situation. But go back to my
rant in drive four. If you had taken the two field goals in drives one and
four, you'd only be down 8 here. There wouldn't be the sense of panic that
results in three bombs to the end zone. Instead, you'd be in your normal
offense, playing to tie. If this is a 27-19 game at this point (as it
should have been), you'd probably try a run on 1st down (with the two
minute warning looming, you can do that with no clock ramifications. That,
and denver still had all three timeouts). Figure you get the average the
Colts give up (5.0 yards / carry), and you've got 2nd and a long 5 / short
6. With all three timeouts. At the 12. You can do ANYTHING you want to
at that point.
Instead, because of the idiocy from earlier in the game, the Colts could
lay back, defend the end zone, because they knew what had to be coming
(rushed passing attempts to the end zone).
denver went 5/15 on third down, and 1/4 on fourth down. They went 0/5 on
third down inside the red zone, and 0/3 on fourth down. That's why they
lost -- they beat themselves with horrendous play calling, stupid decision
making, and (on drive one) some incredibly bad luck (the odds of you not
scoring on two plays up the middle from the one have to be about the same
as the odds of me getting laid tonight. Slim and none, and none is a heavy
15 point favorite).
So ... to recap the statistics portion of why the Chiefs can win this game:
* The Colts can't stop the run, or the pass.
* They can't get off the field on third down.
* They can't pressure the quarterback. Oh, and
* They're one amazingly piss poor coached game away from being 1-3.
And they're about to face the two coordinators who wrote the Bible on how
to beat Peyton Manning and crew.
So I ask ... why CAN'T the Chiefs win this game?
Furthermore ... and this is what I wanted to write up last night, but real
life got in the way ...
I've been thinking about this season a lot lately. Probably because I have
nothing else going on. I've read (like many of you) the columns and blog
postings on "teams going from worst to first", "how soft the Chiefs
schedule is", "the Chiefs haven't beaten anybody good, this is just a
fluke ..."
And yesterday, it hit me.
History.
As Dan Dierdorf best put it:
(al michaels) so now they've gotta go 80 yards in 58 seconds.
(frank gifford) with no timeouts.
(pause)
(dan dierdorf) but we've seen it before.
(frank gifford) oh yeah.
We have seen this script before. In our own kittie litter pile to boot.
(OK, fine, that's not fair. In Missouri's manure pile. Is that better? I
mean, how do you describe our "good friends" across the state in an
accurate manner, that doesn't involve noting the stench of the city, the
crime ridden neighborhoods, the watered down slop and foam that they pass
off as "liquid refreshment"? How? How do you accurately describe St.
Louis without invoking words like "kittie litter" and "manure pile"? You
can't. They gave us Nelly and Chingy. Kittie litter it is).
Week five, 1999. This hot as hell (at the time) 22 year old was sitting in
section 109 that day, witnessing a miracle. Adam Vinatieri missing from 25
yards out as time expired, to give the Chiefs a one point victory. Its
been twelve years, and I still can't believe he missed that kick.
Vinatieri doesn't miss kicks like that.
But across the state that beautiful early October afternoon, another
miracle was unfolding. The Rams had opened 3-0, like the Chiefs this year.
Just like this year's Chiefs, a good reason why was two vastly improved
coordinators taking over the game planning (for the Rams, that would be
Mike Martz and Peter Guinta; for us, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel).
Another good reason why? A solid veteran running back brought in for
leadership and his ability to change the game, a dude known as Marshall
Faulk. They had an epic draft that spring, grabbing Torry Holt in round
one, Dre Bly in round two. They had gone out and, on the advise of their
new coaching and front office hires, raided their former employer to grab a
starting QB ... by the name of Trent Green, from the Redskins. But they
also had time to shop a HyVee in rural Iowa and pluck a stock boy by the
name of Kurt Warner off the floor.
They got off to a fast 3-0 start entering the bye. They beat two sh*tty
squads (Baltimore, Cincinnati), and also beat the defending division
champion at home (Atlanta, fresh off their 14-2 Super Bowl run). Sounding
familiar still?
The key to their rapid fire start? Easy. A vastly improved defense that
gave up only 27 points in the first three games. (The Chiefs have given up
37 so far, although it should be 30, I refuse to recognize that horsesh*t
TD the 49ers got as time expired).
And just like this year's Chiefs, EVERYONE was predicting reality would set
for the Rams in week five, when the 49ers came to town. You know, the
49ers. Who (at the time) had posted 18 consecutive 10 win seasons. Had
made the playoffs 17 of the last 18 years, had won the division 14 of the
last 18 years, had won 5 of the last 18 Super Bowls, had played in 9 of the
last 18 NFC Title Games. Quarterbacked by Steve Young, powered by Garrison
Hearst and Charlie Garner, the receiving combo of Terrell Owens and and
Jerry Rice. A still very stout defense anchored by Dana Stubblefield,
Merton Hanks, Tim McDonald, and Ken Norton Jr. This, everyone said, is
when the Rams parade comes crashing to a halt. A nice feel-good story, but
just that, a story. Nothing to take seriously.
(And in case anyone doubts that, in case anyone believes that the Rams were
taken credibly from the opening notes of the season, I give you the cover
of Sports Illustrated from October 18, 1999, the issue that came out the
week after the 49ers came to town:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/featured/9712/index.htm )
Everyone doubted them. Only ... the Rams DESTROYED the 49ers that day. It
was 21-3 before the 49ers even knew what hit them, en route to a 44-20 ass
kicking. The Rams never looked back en route to a 13 win, Super Bowl
championship season. They weren't a fluke. They were the real thing.
Only, nobody knew it until they faced a "test" -- and aced it.
In hindsight, we should have seen it coming. Kurt Warner led his teams to
three Super Bowls in a decade, and deserves a bust in Canton. Marshall
Faulk will be a first or second ballot Hall of Famer. Isaac Bruce and
Torry Holt will get there eventually. As should head coach Dick Vermeil.
The foundation was there. It was just "too young", "too unproven", "too
unseasoned" to really be THAT good, THAT soon. Or so everyone thought.
Do you see the similarities here come Sunday? The Chiefs (I agree) haven't
faced a playoff team yet. Our quarterback inspires fear in his fans more
than confidence. Yeah, we can run the ball on anyone, but again, who have
we faced? Yeah, our defense looks faster, better, more cohesive, but
again, is that us, or the opposition?
(And more to the point: like that 49ers team from 1999, are the Colts
(gasp) overrated? Are they at the end of their run, and Sunday is the game
that begins their fall (and our rise?) The 49ers never recovered from that
loss, falling to 4-12 in 1999. The 49ers have never been the same since,
posting a losing record 10 of the last 12 years (and well on their way to
11 out of 13). I'm not saying the Colts are on the verge of a collapse.
What I am saying, is that the defensive stats say the Colts are a .500 team
(which is, coincidentally, exactly what their record is). The Chiefs have
enough talent on offense to exploit the matchup advantages we have. And if
you put a gun to my head, and made me wager on the final outcome solely
based on the coaching staffs in this game, I wouldn't even blink at
dropping a C Note on the Chiefs, the disparity is that ridiculous).
I say all this for a reason. And it is this:
When you (ok, me), when I look at the 2010 Chiefs ... well ... don't you
see at least flashes of those 1999 Rams? Jamaal Charles juking defenders
in the flat like Marshall Faulk? D Bowe catching 45 yard razzle-dazzle
flea flicker bombs ala Torry Holt? A relentless young front four led by
convicted drunken killer Leonard Little? Wait, I mean led by convicted
ball-grabber Shaun Smith?
A rock solid draft class that is stepping up from day one? A veteran WR
(Isaac Bruce for the Rams / Chris Chambers for the Chiefs) willing to step
aside and let the young guns shine? A defense led by youth, a sprinkling
of veteran presence, and a belief in themselves that we haven't seen in at
least a decade around here?
Sunday, the Chiefs play the Colts. Just like 12 years ago, ironically on
the same exact day (Sunday, October 10), at the same exact time (high
noon), within sight of the same freeway (I-70) the Rams faced their
"Mission Impossible" against the 49ers.
Anyone who says the Chiefs have no chance, anyone who says the Chiefs are
frauds, are imposters, and are about to get their bells rung in a brutal
knock of reality, either hasn't seen these Colts play ...
Or doesn't understand their National Football League history ...
more than two things that I have absolute faith in, but for this, I'm going
to focus on two:
1. Statistics never lie. Never. You just sometimes really have to look to
find the reason why something is the way that it is.
2. History is a great teacher. Those who fail to learn from the past, are
doomed to repeat it.
The Chiefs absolutely, positively, without question "can win" this game
Sunday at Indianapolis. (Note that I did not say "will win". Gotta give
you a reason to come back on Friday for the picks).
But, contrary to what the national media, the local media, the
possibly-drunk, hot-as-hell 33 year old tossing washers in Lot G says (hey,
wait a minute ...), ignoring all their reasons why the Chiefs are (somehow)
THE biggest underdogs on the board this week, I offer you this:
The Chiefs CAN win this game, for two primary reasons.
1. The Colts defense (aka "statistics").
2. The St. Louis Rams (aka "history").
(2) doesn't make much sense on the surface, I know. History? How is
history a helper for us here? The Chiefs have never won at Indy, posting a
perfect 0-5 record there. The Colts have won 12 or more games 8 straight
seasons. They've won 7 of the last 8 AFC South titles, have reached the
Super Bowl 2 of the last 4 years, and have a championship to show for it.
The Chiefs haven't won more than 4 games in a season since 2006, haven't
won more than 3 in a row since 2004, and have beaten exactly one team on
the road since 2003 that had a .500 or better record when we faced them
(denver, last year ... in the midst of losing 8 of 10 to close their season
at .500. Not exactly a "statement victory").
That ... and what the hell do the Rams and Chiefs have in common? Other
than a horrendously bad stretch of football, a couple traded coaches and
players, and a common state border?
I'll get back to (2). Let's open with (1), shall we?
The Colts, to put it bluntly, absolutely suck at the four main things a
defense needs to excel at: sacks, turnovers, yardage allowed, and third
down conversion rate.
(I know "points allowed" is critically important ... but if you're
routinely pressuring the quarterback, you're getting off the field on third
down, you're at least even in the turnover margin, and you're not letting
teams march up and down the field on you, odds are, your "points allowed"
will be in the top 10.)
Let's start with the first category, sacks. Perhaps (and I don't agree
with this), perhaps this is the most important defensive stat, because if
you can pressure the quarterback consistently, it hides a multitude of
other sins.
So let's establish a fact right off the bat. The Colts CANNOT rush the
quarterback. Period. They've faced three relatively immobile passers so
far (Schaub, E Manning, orton), plus the relatively mobile (yet talentally
challenged) David Garrard.
So far, the Colts have four sacks. Four. No, that is not a typo -- Tamba
Hali has nearly matched the ENTIRE Colts pass rush in four fewer quarters
of football.
Here is how they got to four:
(Note: all stats to follow pulled from nfl.com's game recaps, play by play
logs, and/or team statistics pages. I'm good when it comes to useless
facts and information, but I'm not nfl.com good).
1. Schaub sacked on 1st and 10 at the Indy 31, 6:02 left, 1st quarter.
Houston would kick a field goal on this drive to make the score 10-0
Texans.
2. Schaub sacked on 3rd and 12 at the Houston 22, 4:12 left, 2nd quarter.
Houston punted to end the drive, score was 13-0 Texans.
3. E Manning sacked on 3rd and 1 at the Indy 48, 1:17 left, 2nd quarter.
Indy 17, Giants 0. Manning fumbled on the play, Colts recovered, then
knelt out the half. Score was 17-0 Colts.
4. Orton sacked on 1st and 10 at the denver 20, first play of the 3rd
quarter. denver scored a touchdown four plays later to make the score
13-10 Colts.
That's it. Four sacks in four games. Two of the four had no impact on the
drive -- Houston kicked a field goal, and denver scored a touchdown. A
third one was on 3rd and long; even if they hadn't sacked Schaub in that
situation, the odds are Houston would have thrown incomplete or short of
the down-to-gain, and punted anyways. (Teams convert 3rd and greater than
8 less than 15% of the time).
Only the sack and fumble recovery of Eli Manning can be counted as an
impact play ... but is it really? Already up 17-0, right before the half?
It might have aborted any thoughts of a Giants comeback, but anyone who
watched that game knew it was already over by the time Manning was sacked
and Freeney recovered the fumble.
Furthermore, look at when they recorded those sacks. Mid first quarter,
late second quarter, late second quarter, first play of the second half.
Uuh, fellas? That's nice and all ... but where the hell are the fourth
quarter momentum changers? Where's the critical tackle behind the line on
3rd and 6 when you're up 2 late in the 4th quarter (like KC got at
Cleveland)? Where's the goalline stand directly caused by the opposing
team's offensive line being unable to block your front four (think KC / San
Diego)? That's right -- it ain't there. Four sacks through four games is
awful enough on its own. It looks even worse when you put it into a proper
context.
Now, pay attention. Because part two of the stats lesson is about to
begin. And to be honest, this is the part that both shocked me ... and has
me happier than a boozer on a winery tour in Central Missouri (hey, wait a
minute ... come on, stop taking cheap shots at yourself ...)
When you can't generate a pass rush, you're inviting teams to open it up
against you. You're begging teams to toss the rock down the field.
Amazingly ... only denver has really done this so far:
Schaub: 9/17, 107 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 67.3 rating.
E Manning: 13/24, 161 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 85.6 rating.
orton: 37/57, 476 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 89.5 rating. (More on this anomaly
coming up).
Garrard: 17/22, 163 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 127.7 rating.
Average: 19/30, 227 yards, 1.5 TD, 1 INT, 92.5 rating.
Which begs the question: why aren't teams taking advantage of the Colts
lack of a pass rush (and questionable secondary due to injury concerns)?
Easy. They can't stop the run. At all:
Texans: 42 carries, 257 yards, 3 TD.
Giants: 43 carries, 160 yards, 0 TD.
donkeys: 18 carries, 47 yards, 0 TD. (Again, stay tuned. This game makes
ZERO sense statistically ... until you dig deeper. Then, it makes PERFECT
sense ...)
Jaguars: 35 carries, 174 yards, 2 TD.
Average: 35 carries, 160 yards, 1 TD.
Add the averages together. 160 yards on the ground, 227 in the air.
They're giving up almost 400 yards a game! I don't care how good your
offense is, you aren't going to be better than .500 if you can't get off
the field defensively. If you are routinely giving up long drives for
points, you're going to lose more often than you win. Ask the 2002 Chiefs
-- after four games, the Chiefs had topped 40 points twice, had topped 30
points 3 times ... and sat at 2-2 because their defense had also given up
30 plus points three times, and could not stop anyone on third down.
The Colts D hasn't been "32 Defense" bad yet ... but they're inching closer
to that mark of distinction. They've given up 30 plus twice in four weeks
(and the Jaguars aren't exactly an "offensive juggernaut" or a "legitimate
playoff contender" at this point). Week one they couldn't stop the run.
Week two, a blowout victory at home ... but the Giants still rolled up over
330 yards of offense. Week three, if denver hadn't crapped their pants at
five crucial junctions (detailed below), they likely win a game in which
they dropped 500 plus yards of offense on the Colts. And last week, the
Jaguars were virtually unstoppable. Yes, the Jacksonville Freaking
Jaguars.
When the Colts D needs to make a play, to get Manning and his boys back on
the field, the bottom line is, they can't. Or at least haven't so far.
(And as a quick side note: did you all catch the Colts end-game strategory
on Sunday? Their head coach called a timeout to FORCE JACKSONVILLE TO TRY
TO SCORE when the game was tied, and the Jaguars were letting the clock run
out to go to overtime! Jim Caldwell admitted as much. He had NO
confidence his defense would hold if they lost the coin flip, so he decided
to try to steal the game late by stopping the Jaguars at midfield, then
trying a long field goal as time expired.
Yes, I know, ignore the ass backwards logic of having so little faith in
your defense, that you put the game in the hands of your defense. Because
I completely understood (and somewhat agreed with) the decision. Isn't
this what we wanted the 2002 Chiefs team to do? We, the fans, knew that
defense couldn't stop a quadrapalegic from running for 150 and a couple
scores. We, the fans, knew the only way the Chiefs could win most weeks
was to find innovative ways to get the offense onto the field. Whatever
you think of Jim Caldwell, and I don't think much of him, give him credit.
He KNOWS how awful his defensive unit is, and is willing to do ANYTHING to
get his unit that can win him a game (the offense) onto the field. Too bad
Richard A. Vermeil never figured that out during his tenure here. Back to
the post!)
The most damning stat though, is third down conversion rate. If you're
giving up more than half of your third down attempts, you're in a world of
trouble. (For comparison's sake, the best defenses tend to give up 30% on
third down. Currently, the Ravens lead the league in 3rd down stops at
24%. Second best? Your Kansas City Chiefs, at 27%). Let's look at the
stats:
Texans: 6/11 (and 1/1 on 4th down).
Giants: 3/11 (and 0/1 on 4th down).
donkeys: 5/15 (and 1/4 on 4th down).
Jaguars: 9/13 (did not attempt a 4th down conversion).
Average: 6/12 (and 1/2 on 4th down).
Now, 50% is not nearly as bad as I expected, to be fair. But that's for a
reason. In statistics, you always have an "outlier". In this case, that
denver game from week three that, on the surface, defies logic. denver
rolled up 500 plus yards of offense. The Colts defense was on the field
for nearly 36 minutes. And yet, they won comfortably.
How, you ask? The idiocy of josh mcdaniels' playcalling, that's how.
As a special "Inside the Numbers" within an "Inside the Numbers" ... wow,
that sounds even more retarded than it looks ... anyways, here is every
single donkeys play call inside the Red Zone from that game, and why it
cost them a game that pretty much every freaking statistic known to mankind
says they should have won going away:
(really, if you're a denver fan ... well, seek professional help. They are
the denver broncos. But seriously, if you're a denver fan, and you weren't
chucking empty beer or whiskey bottles at your television after witnessing
this game, I'd question how big of a fan you are. Someone should have been
fired over this performance, the play calling was (is?) THAT awful ...)
* Drive one: 2nd quarter, 5:18 remaining, Indy up 13-0.
1st and goal at the 1: maroney up the middle, no gain.
2nd and goal at the 1: maroney up the middle, no gain. Timeout Indy.
3rd and goal at the 1: orton incomplete, threw it away.
4th and goal at the 1: maroney off tackle, no gain. Replay overturned a TD
ruling on the field.
You can't fault the first three downs play calling, to be honest. My only
b*tch would be that you pound it again on third down. Why risk the INT and
the sure points a field goal gives you?
(Because josh mcdaniels refused to take the free points. Sweet Jesus,
would this bite them in the ass later on ... wait, I'm getting ahead of
myself ...)
So first three downs, perfectly acceptable, and certainly a little unlucky
given the situation. But fourth down? First, why are you not kicking the
field goal at this point? Take the points, its still the first half. (And
spare me the "but they were at the one yard line" argument. Exactly.
Three plays already, and they hadn't gotten in).
But if you are going to go for it, why in the hell are you running sideways
at the goalline? Pound it up the middle again, or if you're going to try
to take it outside, roll the QB out (you know, that designed QB rollout
that the donkeys have been running to perfection since the Dan Reeves
days?), so he can either take off ... or have a passing option! (Think
Matt Cassel on goal-to-go against San Diego four weeks ago. This is the
EXACT play Charlie Weis called -- Cassel rollout, easy TD lob to Moeaki.
Good God, josh. We use the same f*cking playbook, for crying out loud. To
think I used to believe we were screwed for a decade because of your
presence. Now? I just thank God you're there. I love being wrong about
people sometimes).
* Drive two: 2nd quarter, :28 remaining, Indy up 13-0
1st and 10 at the 16: orton to gaffney, out of bounds at the 7.
2nd and 1 at the 7: orton incomplete.
3rd and 1 at the 7: orton incomplete.
4th and 1 at the 7: field goal to end the half. 13-3 Indy.
On the surface, this looks perfectly acceptable ... but that's why I'm
here. Because one obvious question jumps out looking at 2nd and 3rd down.
Why did denver not run it on one of the yard-to-go situations? Aah. That,
I can answer.
(Because they had pissed away ALL THREE of their timeouts earlier in the
drive!)
The drive started at the denver 39, with 1:49 to play. There is NO
justifiable reason to even BEGIN to think about taking a timeout until the
clock is under 40 seconds. NONE, save for being required to due to injury
in the last two minutes of the half, as per the NFL rule book.
denver used timeout number one at the 1:10 mark ... after orton plowed up
the gut on 3rd and 1 for a first down. What the f*ck? What justifiable
reason is there to call a timeout here? You were in a jumbo formation, you
pounded it for the first, who cares if 15 seconds bleed off? You'd much
rather trade the time with 1:10 to go, than find yourself up sh*ts creek
with :20 to go, like would eventually happen.
denver used timeout number two at the :55 mark ... after a 30 yard
completion to the Indy 30. This is justifiable ... if you hadn't just used
your first timeout ON THE PRIOR PLAY! Really? You don't have two or three
plays called in the huddle inside of two minutes to play? Unreal.
denver used its final timeout at the :28 mark ... after a 5 yard completion
on 2nd and 1. This makes some sense ... only, the reason it had to use the
timeout is because eddie royal failed to get out of bounds. ed, buddy?
You're inside of 30 seconds to go, running a crossing pattern designed to
pick up 3 yards, the first down ... and stop the clock by getting out of
bounds!
Oy.
But wait! It gets better!
* Drive three: 3rd Quarter, 3:50 to play, 20-10 Indy.
1st and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete.
2nd and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete.
3rd and 10 at the 17: orton complete to royal.
4th and 9 at the 16: field goal. 20-13 Indy.
Can't blame denver for taking the points. I'd have done the same thing.
What I would NOT have done, however, is thrown a 1 yard pass on 3rd and 10,
and trusted the wide receiver to make something happen. That's a play you
call on 1st down. Not on 3rd. So now we're at 12 snaps inside the 20, and
denver has 6 points, 0 first downs, and 2 plays with positive yardage to
show for it. That's just super coaching guys, super job. And we're STILL
not done.
* Drive Four: 4th quarter, 7:45 to play, 20-13 Indy.
1st and 10 at the 19: buckhalter offtackle for three.
2nd and 7 at the 16: orton incomplete, intended for thomas.
3rd and 7 at the 16: orton complete to gaffney for four yards.
4th and 3 at the 12: orton incomplete, intended for lloyd.
Two nit-picks here. (1) again, I hate throwing it short of the yard to
gain on a makeable third down, and then betting on the receiver to make a
move or bust a tackle to pick up what you need. It's stupid. It's
absolutely stupid. The only person I know that hates this more than me, is
John Madden. And if a Hall of Fame Coach and broadcaster whose video game
revolutionized the sport, if HE thinks its stupid, I feel very safe in
defending my opinion that it is stupid. (2) Go back to the first Red Zone
drive. Here's where not kicking the field goal there bites you in the ass.
denver almost has to go in the position they find themselves in, because a
field goal doesn't change the dynamic here. If you kick the field goal,
you're down 4. You still need a stop and a touchdown. So, in this spot,
given this exact circumstance, mcdaniels made the right decision to go for
it.
IF, however, you took the points on the first drive like you should have,
then a field goal here cuts it to 1 ... meaning you only need a score to
win. ANY score. A touchdown, a field goal, a safety. ANYTHING wins it
for you, had you kicked on drive one and kicked here. It's the little
things that bite you in the ass in this game. Like not taking gimme points
in the first half.
"But Stevo! But Stevo!" I can hear you screaming. "Indy scored on their
next drive! denver still would have needed a touchdown anyways!" To which
I reply ... true. But instead of only needing a touchdown, they needed two
now, which directly affected the play calling on ...
* Drive Five: 4th Quarter, 2:23 to play, Indy 27-13.
1st and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete to the end zone.
2nd and 10 at the 17: orton incomplete to the end zone.
3rd and 10 at the 17: whoops. False start. Make that
3rd and 15 at the 22: orton to buckhalter for two. Timeout denver.
4th and 13 at the 20: orton incomplete to the end zone.
The play calling here was fine, given the situation. But go back to my
rant in drive four. If you had taken the two field goals in drives one and
four, you'd only be down 8 here. There wouldn't be the sense of panic that
results in three bombs to the end zone. Instead, you'd be in your normal
offense, playing to tie. If this is a 27-19 game at this point (as it
should have been), you'd probably try a run on 1st down (with the two
minute warning looming, you can do that with no clock ramifications. That,
and denver still had all three timeouts). Figure you get the average the
Colts give up (5.0 yards / carry), and you've got 2nd and a long 5 / short
6. With all three timeouts. At the 12. You can do ANYTHING you want to
at that point.
Instead, because of the idiocy from earlier in the game, the Colts could
lay back, defend the end zone, because they knew what had to be coming
(rushed passing attempts to the end zone).
denver went 5/15 on third down, and 1/4 on fourth down. They went 0/5 on
third down inside the red zone, and 0/3 on fourth down. That's why they
lost -- they beat themselves with horrendous play calling, stupid decision
making, and (on drive one) some incredibly bad luck (the odds of you not
scoring on two plays up the middle from the one have to be about the same
as the odds of me getting laid tonight. Slim and none, and none is a heavy
15 point favorite).
So ... to recap the statistics portion of why the Chiefs can win this game:
* The Colts can't stop the run, or the pass.
* They can't get off the field on third down.
* They can't pressure the quarterback. Oh, and
* They're one amazingly piss poor coached game away from being 1-3.
And they're about to face the two coordinators who wrote the Bible on how
to beat Peyton Manning and crew.
So I ask ... why CAN'T the Chiefs win this game?
Furthermore ... and this is what I wanted to write up last night, but real
life got in the way ...
I've been thinking about this season a lot lately. Probably because I have
nothing else going on. I've read (like many of you) the columns and blog
postings on "teams going from worst to first", "how soft the Chiefs
schedule is", "the Chiefs haven't beaten anybody good, this is just a
fluke ..."
And yesterday, it hit me.
History.
As Dan Dierdorf best put it:
(al michaels) so now they've gotta go 80 yards in 58 seconds.
(frank gifford) with no timeouts.
(pause)
(dan dierdorf) but we've seen it before.
(frank gifford) oh yeah.
We have seen this script before. In our own kittie litter pile to boot.
(OK, fine, that's not fair. In Missouri's manure pile. Is that better? I
mean, how do you describe our "good friends" across the state in an
accurate manner, that doesn't involve noting the stench of the city, the
crime ridden neighborhoods, the watered down slop and foam that they pass
off as "liquid refreshment"? How? How do you accurately describe St.
Louis without invoking words like "kittie litter" and "manure pile"? You
can't. They gave us Nelly and Chingy. Kittie litter it is).
Week five, 1999. This hot as hell (at the time) 22 year old was sitting in
section 109 that day, witnessing a miracle. Adam Vinatieri missing from 25
yards out as time expired, to give the Chiefs a one point victory. Its
been twelve years, and I still can't believe he missed that kick.
Vinatieri doesn't miss kicks like that.
But across the state that beautiful early October afternoon, another
miracle was unfolding. The Rams had opened 3-0, like the Chiefs this year.
Just like this year's Chiefs, a good reason why was two vastly improved
coordinators taking over the game planning (for the Rams, that would be
Mike Martz and Peter Guinta; for us, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel).
Another good reason why? A solid veteran running back brought in for
leadership and his ability to change the game, a dude known as Marshall
Faulk. They had an epic draft that spring, grabbing Torry Holt in round
one, Dre Bly in round two. They had gone out and, on the advise of their
new coaching and front office hires, raided their former employer to grab a
starting QB ... by the name of Trent Green, from the Redskins. But they
also had time to shop a HyVee in rural Iowa and pluck a stock boy by the
name of Kurt Warner off the floor.
They got off to a fast 3-0 start entering the bye. They beat two sh*tty
squads (Baltimore, Cincinnati), and also beat the defending division
champion at home (Atlanta, fresh off their 14-2 Super Bowl run). Sounding
familiar still?
The key to their rapid fire start? Easy. A vastly improved defense that
gave up only 27 points in the first three games. (The Chiefs have given up
37 so far, although it should be 30, I refuse to recognize that horsesh*t
TD the 49ers got as time expired).
And just like this year's Chiefs, EVERYONE was predicting reality would set
for the Rams in week five, when the 49ers came to town. You know, the
49ers. Who (at the time) had posted 18 consecutive 10 win seasons. Had
made the playoffs 17 of the last 18 years, had won the division 14 of the
last 18 years, had won 5 of the last 18 Super Bowls, had played in 9 of the
last 18 NFC Title Games. Quarterbacked by Steve Young, powered by Garrison
Hearst and Charlie Garner, the receiving combo of Terrell Owens and and
Jerry Rice. A still very stout defense anchored by Dana Stubblefield,
Merton Hanks, Tim McDonald, and Ken Norton Jr. This, everyone said, is
when the Rams parade comes crashing to a halt. A nice feel-good story, but
just that, a story. Nothing to take seriously.
(And in case anyone doubts that, in case anyone believes that the Rams were
taken credibly from the opening notes of the season, I give you the cover
of Sports Illustrated from October 18, 1999, the issue that came out the
week after the 49ers came to town:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/cover/featured/9712/index.htm )
Everyone doubted them. Only ... the Rams DESTROYED the 49ers that day. It
was 21-3 before the 49ers even knew what hit them, en route to a 44-20 ass
kicking. The Rams never looked back en route to a 13 win, Super Bowl
championship season. They weren't a fluke. They were the real thing.
Only, nobody knew it until they faced a "test" -- and aced it.
In hindsight, we should have seen it coming. Kurt Warner led his teams to
three Super Bowls in a decade, and deserves a bust in Canton. Marshall
Faulk will be a first or second ballot Hall of Famer. Isaac Bruce and
Torry Holt will get there eventually. As should head coach Dick Vermeil.
The foundation was there. It was just "too young", "too unproven", "too
unseasoned" to really be THAT good, THAT soon. Or so everyone thought.
Do you see the similarities here come Sunday? The Chiefs (I agree) haven't
faced a playoff team yet. Our quarterback inspires fear in his fans more
than confidence. Yeah, we can run the ball on anyone, but again, who have
we faced? Yeah, our defense looks faster, better, more cohesive, but
again, is that us, or the opposition?
(And more to the point: like that 49ers team from 1999, are the Colts
(gasp) overrated? Are they at the end of their run, and Sunday is the game
that begins their fall (and our rise?) The 49ers never recovered from that
loss, falling to 4-12 in 1999. The 49ers have never been the same since,
posting a losing record 10 of the last 12 years (and well on their way to
11 out of 13). I'm not saying the Colts are on the verge of a collapse.
What I am saying, is that the defensive stats say the Colts are a .500 team
(which is, coincidentally, exactly what their record is). The Chiefs have
enough talent on offense to exploit the matchup advantages we have. And if
you put a gun to my head, and made me wager on the final outcome solely
based on the coaching staffs in this game, I wouldn't even blink at
dropping a C Note on the Chiefs, the disparity is that ridiculous).
I say all this for a reason. And it is this:
When you (ok, me), when I look at the 2010 Chiefs ... well ... don't you
see at least flashes of those 1999 Rams? Jamaal Charles juking defenders
in the flat like Marshall Faulk? D Bowe catching 45 yard razzle-dazzle
flea flicker bombs ala Torry Holt? A relentless young front four led by
convicted drunken killer Leonard Little? Wait, I mean led by convicted
ball-grabber Shaun Smith?
A rock solid draft class that is stepping up from day one? A veteran WR
(Isaac Bruce for the Rams / Chris Chambers for the Chiefs) willing to step
aside and let the young guns shine? A defense led by youth, a sprinkling
of veteran presence, and a belief in themselves that we haven't seen in at
least a decade around here?
Sunday, the Chiefs play the Colts. Just like 12 years ago, ironically on
the same exact day (Sunday, October 10), at the same exact time (high
noon), within sight of the same freeway (I-70) the Rams faced their
"Mission Impossible" against the 49ers.
Anyone who says the Chiefs have no chance, anyone who says the Chiefs are
frauds, are imposters, and are about to get their bells rung in a brutal
knock of reality, either hasn't seen these Colts play ...
Or doesn't understand their National Football League history ...
Monday, October 4, 2010
chiefs colts: monday
Sunday, at high noon, the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team rolls into Indianapolis for a date with ... what, exactly?
A date with destiny? History says hardly. The Chiefs are one for their last ten against the Colts, the sole victory being a 2004 thriller at Arrowhead (more on that in a minute).
A close game? Highly probable. Of the last nine in the series, six have literally been decided on the final possession of the game. And all nine have been a one possession game in the 4th quarter. (Again, more in a minute).
A victory? History says no. The Chiefs have never won in Indianapolis, posting a perfect 0-5 record all time ... at the Hoosier turned RCA Dome.
So what exactly does Sunday hold?
I might have a lot to say about this ... and I might not. Tonight, let's look back at the last nine games played in this series. I know, I know -- 8 of them are excruciatingly painful. (OK, seven are. I know the 2003 playoff loss hurt ... but come on. That was one of THE funnest games I've ever had the honor of witnessing in person. As our buddy Pickell would say, "Let me put it this way ..." -- its a Chiefs postseason loss, on a Sunday afternoon, and I was at work with time to spare on Monday. That loss didn't eat me up. It couldn't. Too fun of a game.)
Here's your last nine, and my comments / thoughts from the top of my head:
(and yes, it scared the hell out of me that, when prepping this thing, I could recall not only all nine games, but the exact score of all nine, off the top of my head. I did have to rely on nfl.com/schedule to get exact times right, at least. Whew).
1995: Colts 10, at Chiefs 7. The first playoff defeat. Lin Elliott missed three field goals in the brutal cold, the last of which came inside of a minute to play. This loss never bothered me like the denver loss two years later. Partly because I hate denver more (albeit barely). But mostly because, there wasn't a shot in hell we were beating Pittsburgh the next week. Yes, the 1995 Chiefs were (and still are) my favorite Chiefs team ever ... but that was one seriously flawed group of overachievers.
Or is that "Overachiefers"?
1996: Colts 24, at Chiefs 19. I will go to my grave believing that if Marty hadn't panicked after the Chargers loss, and benched Bono, that we win this game. Call me crazy, but you don't bench a QB that is 8-4 on the current season, 21-8 as your starter. Ask denver how well benching jake plummer has gone for them. (plummer was 19-9 in his last 28 starts in denver, the last of which was the Thanksgiving nighter here at Arrowhead in 2006).
1999: at Colts 25, Chiefs 17. The Chiefs led virtually the whole way, until Elvis Grbac left hurt, and 406 year old Warren Moon attempted to lead a last minute rally that ended when his 4th and goal pass was knocked down. Perhaps best remembered for a 9pm phone call on the Saturday night before, that led to breakfast in the Steak and Shake parking lot outside the RCA Dome about 10 hours later. That, or the warning to avoid bringing "missile like objects" into the Dome. Thanks guys. Couldn't have figured out bringing a "missile like object" into a sporting event was a bad idea.
2000: Colts 26, at Chiefs 14. Opening Day. Still the hottest regular season game I've ever been to. Good God, it was hot that day, 105 I believe was the official temp.
I remember this one for the events from 48 hours before. Me and G went to the preseason kickoff party in the River Market, where Mr. William Grigsby was our master of ceremonies ... and Donnie Edwards was the Chiefs player on hand to ring in the new season. After exchanging pleasantries ... Donnie revealed he'd gotten Jenni's essay on our pregame antics, and loved it. The rest of the season was just nuts. Every week that guy had a different greeting / gift at the players entrance for Gregg. Culminating with the Christmas gift of game used gloves.
The game itself sucked. The Chiefs were in perfect position to pull the upset ... and choked a fourth quarter lead away.
2001: Colts 35, at Chiefs 28. A back and forth Thursday nighter (hey! Remember when we had one of these every year in October! Yeah ...) that the Colts survived.
2003: Colts 38, at Chiefs 31. The single biggest thing I remember about this game was Dante Hall's kickoff return to make the score 31-24 with 7:58 to go. I was yelling / screaming / lobbying with everything I could muster, that the time to try the onside kick was "NOW!" Arrowhead was going crazy. You couldn't hear yourself talk, let alone think. The Colts NEVER would have seen it coming. The Chiefs kicked it deep. They forced 3rd down. The Colts converted. Ballgame.
2004: at Chiefs 45, Colts 35. I remember three specific things about this game:
1. "deadbeat ex roommate" lobbying me for two weeks to get Randy's ticket ... first game ticket was available after his death ... and said "deadbeat" flaking on the ticket on gameday. Should have known then what being around that d*ckhead would mean.
2. Chiefs get up huge, 38-14, to open the second half ... and not even an hour later, its 38-35. Yeah, peyton manning is that good.
3. The external pressure entering that game. No, not on the field, but off of it. Bistate II's vote was three days away. Most folks felt then (as did I) that it was "approve this or else" when it came to the local teams. No, not necessarily "say hello to the LA Chiefs", but you had to wonder. Bistate II collapsed in defeat, despite the win. Thankfully the Jackson County residents stepped up and saved the Sports Complex two years later. But still.
2006: at Colts 23, Chiefs 8. As bad as this game was ... the Chiefs had the ball, down 8, with a shot to tie, with 11:44 to play.
2007: at Colts 16, Chiefs 13. A horrendous Chiefs team literally played the Colts to a draw for 59:59, before Adam Vinatieri won it on a field goal as time expired.
Nine games against Indy in the last 15 years. Eight Chiefs losses. Six games decided on the final offensive possession. Sunday, you can probably expect at least some of the same.
I think it'll be close. I think it'll come down to a final defensive stand (or lack thereof). This game always does; no shocker there.
What I'm most curious to see ... is coming tomorrow ...
A date with destiny? History says hardly. The Chiefs are one for their last ten against the Colts, the sole victory being a 2004 thriller at Arrowhead (more on that in a minute).
A close game? Highly probable. Of the last nine in the series, six have literally been decided on the final possession of the game. And all nine have been a one possession game in the 4th quarter. (Again, more in a minute).
A victory? History says no. The Chiefs have never won in Indianapolis, posting a perfect 0-5 record all time ... at the Hoosier turned RCA Dome.
So what exactly does Sunday hold?
I might have a lot to say about this ... and I might not. Tonight, let's look back at the last nine games played in this series. I know, I know -- 8 of them are excruciatingly painful. (OK, seven are. I know the 2003 playoff loss hurt ... but come on. That was one of THE funnest games I've ever had the honor of witnessing in person. As our buddy Pickell would say, "Let me put it this way ..." -- its a Chiefs postseason loss, on a Sunday afternoon, and I was at work with time to spare on Monday. That loss didn't eat me up. It couldn't. Too fun of a game.)
Here's your last nine, and my comments / thoughts from the top of my head:
(and yes, it scared the hell out of me that, when prepping this thing, I could recall not only all nine games, but the exact score of all nine, off the top of my head. I did have to rely on nfl.com/schedule to get exact times right, at least. Whew).
1995: Colts 10, at Chiefs 7. The first playoff defeat. Lin Elliott missed three field goals in the brutal cold, the last of which came inside of a minute to play. This loss never bothered me like the denver loss two years later. Partly because I hate denver more (albeit barely). But mostly because, there wasn't a shot in hell we were beating Pittsburgh the next week. Yes, the 1995 Chiefs were (and still are) my favorite Chiefs team ever ... but that was one seriously flawed group of overachievers.
Or is that "Overachiefers"?
1996: Colts 24, at Chiefs 19. I will go to my grave believing that if Marty hadn't panicked after the Chargers loss, and benched Bono, that we win this game. Call me crazy, but you don't bench a QB that is 8-4 on the current season, 21-8 as your starter. Ask denver how well benching jake plummer has gone for them. (plummer was 19-9 in his last 28 starts in denver, the last of which was the Thanksgiving nighter here at Arrowhead in 2006).
1999: at Colts 25, Chiefs 17. The Chiefs led virtually the whole way, until Elvis Grbac left hurt, and 406 year old Warren Moon attempted to lead a last minute rally that ended when his 4th and goal pass was knocked down. Perhaps best remembered for a 9pm phone call on the Saturday night before, that led to breakfast in the Steak and Shake parking lot outside the RCA Dome about 10 hours later. That, or the warning to avoid bringing "missile like objects" into the Dome. Thanks guys. Couldn't have figured out bringing a "missile like object" into a sporting event was a bad idea.
2000: Colts 26, at Chiefs 14. Opening Day. Still the hottest regular season game I've ever been to. Good God, it was hot that day, 105 I believe was the official temp.
I remember this one for the events from 48 hours before. Me and G went to the preseason kickoff party in the River Market, where Mr. William Grigsby was our master of ceremonies ... and Donnie Edwards was the Chiefs player on hand to ring in the new season. After exchanging pleasantries ... Donnie revealed he'd gotten Jenni's essay on our pregame antics, and loved it. The rest of the season was just nuts. Every week that guy had a different greeting / gift at the players entrance for Gregg. Culminating with the Christmas gift of game used gloves.
The game itself sucked. The Chiefs were in perfect position to pull the upset ... and choked a fourth quarter lead away.
2001: Colts 35, at Chiefs 28. A back and forth Thursday nighter (hey! Remember when we had one of these every year in October! Yeah ...) that the Colts survived.
2003: Colts 38, at Chiefs 31. The single biggest thing I remember about this game was Dante Hall's kickoff return to make the score 31-24 with 7:58 to go. I was yelling / screaming / lobbying with everything I could muster, that the time to try the onside kick was "NOW!" Arrowhead was going crazy. You couldn't hear yourself talk, let alone think. The Colts NEVER would have seen it coming. The Chiefs kicked it deep. They forced 3rd down. The Colts converted. Ballgame.
2004: at Chiefs 45, Colts 35. I remember three specific things about this game:
1. "deadbeat ex roommate" lobbying me for two weeks to get Randy's ticket ... first game ticket was available after his death ... and said "deadbeat" flaking on the ticket on gameday. Should have known then what being around that d*ckhead would mean.
2. Chiefs get up huge, 38-14, to open the second half ... and not even an hour later, its 38-35. Yeah, peyton manning is that good.
3. The external pressure entering that game. No, not on the field, but off of it. Bistate II's vote was three days away. Most folks felt then (as did I) that it was "approve this or else" when it came to the local teams. No, not necessarily "say hello to the LA Chiefs", but you had to wonder. Bistate II collapsed in defeat, despite the win. Thankfully the Jackson County residents stepped up and saved the Sports Complex two years later. But still.
2006: at Colts 23, Chiefs 8. As bad as this game was ... the Chiefs had the ball, down 8, with a shot to tie, with 11:44 to play.
2007: at Colts 16, Chiefs 13. A horrendous Chiefs team literally played the Colts to a draw for 59:59, before Adam Vinatieri won it on a field goal as time expired.
Nine games against Indy in the last 15 years. Eight Chiefs losses. Six games decided on the final offensive possession. Sunday, you can probably expect at least some of the same.
I think it'll be close. I think it'll come down to a final defensive stand (or lack thereof). This game always does; no shocker there.
What I'm most curious to see ... is coming tomorrow ...
Friday, October 1, 2010
the week four predictions
Lots of good games this weekend ... but most of them are on Saturday. But hey, Sunday night, its the Rush Limbaugh themed "Family Guy", whose preview on Hulu almost had me in tears from laughing so hard.
And -- DVR alert! -- Monday, 5pm CT, THE best episode ever of "Friday Night Lights" airs on ABC Family. If you've never seen even 0:01 of "Friday Night Lights" before, do yourself a favor, and DVR (or watch live) the episode on Monday, from season one, entitled "Mud Bowl". If you come into it with "clear eyes and full hearts", giving it a fair chance, you'll be hooked by the time Julie tackles Saracen to end things.
OK, on to the picks ...
Last Week SU: 11-5-0
Season to Date SU: 32-16-0
Last Week ATS: 7-9-0
Season to Date ATS: 24-22-2
Last Week Upset / Week: you might get a few more classic "take a f*cking guess" predictions going forward. Especially since the Chiefs figure to be underdogs the next two Sundays -- one of them a series where the home team is 1-4 all time, the other one in a place where the Chiefs surprisingly always play well ... and to be fair, I only pull out the "take a f*cking guess" Chiefs prediction in specific situations. I've only done it 9 times since 2003. In those games, the Chiefs are now 8-1, the only loss being the donkeys game last December, best known for the single worst decision in NFL coaching history.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 1-2-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: I don't want to do this ... because the next three weeks (at Tenn / at Bal / vs Jets) should destroy their season ... but I love, I freaking LOVE, the donkeys at Tennessee this week. So denver (+6 1/2) to win outright in Nashville.
* Ravens (+1 1/2) 16, at Steelers 10.
* donkeys (+6 1/2) 24, at Titans 20.
* Bengals (-3) 31, at Browns 3.
* at Packers (-14 1/2) 34, Lions 13.
* at Saints (-13 1/2) 45, Panthers 3.
* at Falcons 24, 49ers (+7) 20.
* at Rams (+1) 24, Seahawks 20.
* at Bills (+5 1/2) 13, Jets 10.
* Colts 31, at Jaguars (+7) 28.
* at raiders (+3) 34, Texans 21.
* at Chargers (-8 1/2) 45, Cardinals 10.
* Redskins (+5 1/2) 31, at Eagles 20.
* Bears (+4) 24, at Giants 23.
* at Dolphins (+1) 31, Patriots 30.
Enjoy the bye week. Relax, take it easy, do some laundry, catch some NASCAR and college football ... and come back ready for the "stretch run".
And -- DVR alert! -- Monday, 5pm CT, THE best episode ever of "Friday Night Lights" airs on ABC Family. If you've never seen even 0:01 of "Friday Night Lights" before, do yourself a favor, and DVR (or watch live) the episode on Monday, from season one, entitled "Mud Bowl". If you come into it with "clear eyes and full hearts", giving it a fair chance, you'll be hooked by the time Julie tackles Saracen to end things.
OK, on to the picks ...
Last Week SU: 11-5-0
Season to Date SU: 32-16-0
Last Week ATS: 7-9-0
Season to Date ATS: 24-22-2
Last Week Upset / Week: you might get a few more classic "take a f*cking guess" predictions going forward. Especially since the Chiefs figure to be underdogs the next two Sundays -- one of them a series where the home team is 1-4 all time, the other one in a place where the Chiefs surprisingly always play well ... and to be fair, I only pull out the "take a f*cking guess" Chiefs prediction in specific situations. I've only done it 9 times since 2003. In those games, the Chiefs are now 8-1, the only loss being the donkeys game last December, best known for the single worst decision in NFL coaching history.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 1-2-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: I don't want to do this ... because the next three weeks (at Tenn / at Bal / vs Jets) should destroy their season ... but I love, I freaking LOVE, the donkeys at Tennessee this week. So denver (+6 1/2) to win outright in Nashville.
* Ravens (+1 1/2) 16, at Steelers 10.
* donkeys (+6 1/2) 24, at Titans 20.
* Bengals (-3) 31, at Browns 3.
* at Packers (-14 1/2) 34, Lions 13.
* at Saints (-13 1/2) 45, Panthers 3.
* at Falcons 24, 49ers (+7) 20.
* at Rams (+1) 24, Seahawks 20.
* at Bills (+5 1/2) 13, Jets 10.
* Colts 31, at Jaguars (+7) 28.
* at raiders (+3) 34, Texans 21.
* at Chargers (-8 1/2) 45, Cardinals 10.
* Redskins (+5 1/2) 31, at Eagles 20.
* Bears (+4) 24, at Giants 23.
* at Dolphins (+1) 31, Patriots 30.
Enjoy the bye week. Relax, take it easy, do some laundry, catch some NASCAR and college football ... and come back ready for the "stretch run".
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
a recap? really? its about time stevo!
"It works for me"
-- Sgt. Rick Hunter.
You had to love that game on Sunday if you're a Chiefs fan. Not only do the Chiefs move to 3-0 for the first time since 2003, not only do the Chiefs take a two game lead in the division for the first time since 2005, you got something that honestly, I hadn't felt inside that stadium since the donkeys game on Thanksgiving night 2006.
I knew there was no way in hell we were losing that game. Never once, for one second, did I worry at all. I said in tailgating that my goal was to "prop the feet up for the second half and get some sun". I might not have propped them up until late in the 3rd quarter, but anytime you can just sit back and treat a Chiefs regular season game like a Royals game or a Chiefs preseason game (aka I'm here for the sun, the company, and the booze, and not necessarily in that order), that game is a winner in my book.
Let's see if I can remember how to do this ...
* Left about 7am. I believe there were 10 of us on the bus ride out, including Tony and Lisa, who came in from Omaha. Also joining us for his first Chiefs game ever was our good buddy Brett. Sadly, none of the ten included Will, who wasn't feeling too hot.
* Also sadly, we realized about halfway to the stadium that we'd left the washer boxes in the garage, so there were no "aw, sh*t!" blasts out of any 5 year olds on Sunday. That's no bueno.
* We were first in line in the far left gate. No sooner did the bus get parked, than our good buddy Justin Robinson from Channel 9 moseyed on over to shoot the sh*t. Not only did Brett make his inaugural appearance at Arrowhead, he made his debut on Kansas City's morning news leader. Good for him.
* After helping myself to the breakfast of champions (bloody mary and cinnamon rolls), I stepped outside ... and it immediately started drizzling, into a steady light rain. I swear. Are we ever going to have a kick ass weather game from start to finish ever again?
* Still there: our good buddy Carl, albeit in a new pickup truck this year. I point this out, because about 8:10am, we're shooting the sh*t with the parking attendant, when Carl makes his patented "nobody's looking, in I go!" move. The parking attendant just kind of laughs. Katie then comes up with the inspired idea to ask "hey, can we head in early too". Parking lady was cool with it. Thus started the mad rush 20 minutes early. Unfortunately, the cone situation is every bit as ridiculous as with the Monday night game. Fortunately, we only took out one cone parking.
* The menu was pretty solid. Burgers, dogs, brats. Plenty of side dishes to enjoy, including the inspired idea of chili. I love me some chili dogs. And some bowls of chili.
* We had some new neighbors this week. Apparently no buses are allowed in the parking lots anymore, so the "KC Chiefs Kick Gr-ass" folks moved next to us into Monty's slot for the week. Our usual neighbors in the white bus were there too to the east, and the Lupercio bus to the east.
What wasn't cool ... was that some bus grabbed Castro and his boys' spot across the way. So ... yeah. We got to party next to Castro all pre and post game. On the bright side ... well, there was no bright side. He didn't have the usual handle of Cuervo. Hopefully he'll remember that next time.
* Speaking of Bizarro World ... no Gregg on Sunday. With good reason -- his first kid was born late Friday night. So congrats to him on the happy news. As a teacher would note, that's an "excused absense".
* Also not there: Dusty and Kellie. Who spent their Chiefs gameday moving. (carlito voice) that's not cool, tito. Its a Chiefs gameday! You can move anytime! You get to witness a 20 plus point Chiefs victory only once every 5 years anymore! (And yes, this was the first 20 plus point Chiefs victory since we destroyed the Rams 37-14 midway through 2006. (spanish bumblebee voice) ay yay yay! no me gusta!!!))
* Headed in about 11:15am. Probably a good thing I wasn't drinking much, because Gregg's mom and dad were there. Had a wonderful 20 minute conversation with them. I couldn't be happier for the newest grandma and grandpa.
* The Bill Grigsby pregame honor was cool. But it sucked to see our Ol' Pardner in a wheelchair. Still, it was great to see this current regime (for once) recognize that there was greatness in this town, and on this team, before they arrived 20 months ago.
* Your national anthem was performed by The Museum. I gotta say, it was pretty damned good.
* Not good? Matt Cassel in the first half. Holy God. There were at least 4 or 5 moments when I literally just shook my head in disgust, and I know I mouthed "holy f*cking Jesus" at least twice at his "pass attempts", including one beauty that sailed 20 yards over D Bowe's head on the sideline. On a 6 yard out pattern.
* I blame myself for Succup's miss from 38. I didn't hit my knees, as per section 132 tradition. I did hit 'em for the second try. Good!
* Dexter McCluster is a freak of speed. I have no idea how the hell he scored on a simple little swing pass from 31 yards out. Just unreal how quick that dude is.
* The D Bowe touchdown was sweet. But left unsaid on either FOX broadcast (be it 101 or the television network) is that the Chiefs ran that play at least twice in the first half, McCluster taking the handoff into a jumbo formation. Perfectly set up.
* Also perfect? Cassel's throw. Also perfect? The reaction, Cassel picking up D Bowe and carrying him halfway to the sidelines. This thing is coming together folks. Unlike 2006, this isn't the last gasp of an era, raging against the clock, trying desperately to hold off the hands of time. This is the beginning of an era.
* Moeaki's touchdown grab. Holy God. As I texted, "tony what? gonzalez who? moeaki!" That was Tony Gonzalez-esque.
* I kept saying the whole second half "these guys don't have a touchdown in them". I was :03 away from nailing that one.
* So the Chiefs sit at 3-0, two clear of the division. But it's not just that, that has me excited. It's not even the fact that everyone is saying "nobody saw this coming!", when all you have to do is click on my 2010 season predictions, where I predicted every effing game, and see I had the Chiefs at 3-0 at the bye.
What has me fired up, is what the rest of the division is facing the next few weeks. denver travels to Tennessee and Baltimore the next two weeks. Pencil them in for 1-4, with the Jets coming to fake mile high after that? oakland hosts Houston and San Diego. Pencil them in at 1-4?
And San Diego, yes, they go vs Arizona / at oakland the next two weeks, and should get to 3-2 ... but Norv Turner is capable of losing any game. And while we have 14 games in common (we have the exact same home / road split of non-divisional foes as San Diego) ... their two non-common games are vs Patriots and at Bengals (on a Monday night in December to boot). Our two non-common games are at Browns (already won), and vs Bills.
No matter what happens in the next two games, the Chiefs are guaranteed to be in first place when they return to Arrowhead on October 24th against a Jaguars team that is a miracle lightning-strike delay away from being 0-3 right now. And after the Jags come Buffalo at home and oakland on the road, where we haven't lost since before Larry Johnson was drafted.
I don't want to get too far ahead of myself ... but look at our remaining schedule. Look at how this team is getting better every week. And will continue to do so, as the young players get more NFL-savvy. If Berry, Dex, Moeaki and Arenas are performing this week in week three, how good are they going to be come late November?
Sunday, for the first time in a long time, every Chiefs fan should have left that stadium with a reasonable expectation that this is a playoff squad. And every Chiefs fan should have left that stadium with the knowledge that this is a force on the rise. Happy days are here again guys (and gals). Enjoy it!
-- Sgt. Rick Hunter.
You had to love that game on Sunday if you're a Chiefs fan. Not only do the Chiefs move to 3-0 for the first time since 2003, not only do the Chiefs take a two game lead in the division for the first time since 2005, you got something that honestly, I hadn't felt inside that stadium since the donkeys game on Thanksgiving night 2006.
I knew there was no way in hell we were losing that game. Never once, for one second, did I worry at all. I said in tailgating that my goal was to "prop the feet up for the second half and get some sun". I might not have propped them up until late in the 3rd quarter, but anytime you can just sit back and treat a Chiefs regular season game like a Royals game or a Chiefs preseason game (aka I'm here for the sun, the company, and the booze, and not necessarily in that order), that game is a winner in my book.
Let's see if I can remember how to do this ...
* Left about 7am. I believe there were 10 of us on the bus ride out, including Tony and Lisa, who came in from Omaha. Also joining us for his first Chiefs game ever was our good buddy Brett. Sadly, none of the ten included Will, who wasn't feeling too hot.
* Also sadly, we realized about halfway to the stadium that we'd left the washer boxes in the garage, so there were no "aw, sh*t!" blasts out of any 5 year olds on Sunday. That's no bueno.
* We were first in line in the far left gate. No sooner did the bus get parked, than our good buddy Justin Robinson from Channel 9 moseyed on over to shoot the sh*t. Not only did Brett make his inaugural appearance at Arrowhead, he made his debut on Kansas City's morning news leader. Good for him.
* After helping myself to the breakfast of champions (bloody mary and cinnamon rolls), I stepped outside ... and it immediately started drizzling, into a steady light rain. I swear. Are we ever going to have a kick ass weather game from start to finish ever again?
* Still there: our good buddy Carl, albeit in a new pickup truck this year. I point this out, because about 8:10am, we're shooting the sh*t with the parking attendant, when Carl makes his patented "nobody's looking, in I go!" move. The parking attendant just kind of laughs. Katie then comes up with the inspired idea to ask "hey, can we head in early too". Parking lady was cool with it. Thus started the mad rush 20 minutes early. Unfortunately, the cone situation is every bit as ridiculous as with the Monday night game. Fortunately, we only took out one cone parking.
* The menu was pretty solid. Burgers, dogs, brats. Plenty of side dishes to enjoy, including the inspired idea of chili. I love me some chili dogs. And some bowls of chili.
* We had some new neighbors this week. Apparently no buses are allowed in the parking lots anymore, so the "KC Chiefs Kick Gr-ass" folks moved next to us into Monty's slot for the week. Our usual neighbors in the white bus were there too to the east, and the Lupercio bus to the east.
What wasn't cool ... was that some bus grabbed Castro and his boys' spot across the way. So ... yeah. We got to party next to Castro all pre and post game. On the bright side ... well, there was no bright side. He didn't have the usual handle of Cuervo. Hopefully he'll remember that next time.
* Speaking of Bizarro World ... no Gregg on Sunday. With good reason -- his first kid was born late Friday night. So congrats to him on the happy news. As a teacher would note, that's an "excused absense".
* Also not there: Dusty and Kellie. Who spent their Chiefs gameday moving. (carlito voice) that's not cool, tito. Its a Chiefs gameday! You can move anytime! You get to witness a 20 plus point Chiefs victory only once every 5 years anymore! (And yes, this was the first 20 plus point Chiefs victory since we destroyed the Rams 37-14 midway through 2006. (spanish bumblebee voice) ay yay yay! no me gusta!!!))
* Headed in about 11:15am. Probably a good thing I wasn't drinking much, because Gregg's mom and dad were there. Had a wonderful 20 minute conversation with them. I couldn't be happier for the newest grandma and grandpa.
* The Bill Grigsby pregame honor was cool. But it sucked to see our Ol' Pardner in a wheelchair. Still, it was great to see this current regime (for once) recognize that there was greatness in this town, and on this team, before they arrived 20 months ago.
* Your national anthem was performed by The Museum. I gotta say, it was pretty damned good.
* Not good? Matt Cassel in the first half. Holy God. There were at least 4 or 5 moments when I literally just shook my head in disgust, and I know I mouthed "holy f*cking Jesus" at least twice at his "pass attempts", including one beauty that sailed 20 yards over D Bowe's head on the sideline. On a 6 yard out pattern.
* I blame myself for Succup's miss from 38. I didn't hit my knees, as per section 132 tradition. I did hit 'em for the second try. Good!
* Dexter McCluster is a freak of speed. I have no idea how the hell he scored on a simple little swing pass from 31 yards out. Just unreal how quick that dude is.
* The D Bowe touchdown was sweet. But left unsaid on either FOX broadcast (be it 101 or the television network) is that the Chiefs ran that play at least twice in the first half, McCluster taking the handoff into a jumbo formation. Perfectly set up.
* Also perfect? Cassel's throw. Also perfect? The reaction, Cassel picking up D Bowe and carrying him halfway to the sidelines. This thing is coming together folks. Unlike 2006, this isn't the last gasp of an era, raging against the clock, trying desperately to hold off the hands of time. This is the beginning of an era.
* Moeaki's touchdown grab. Holy God. As I texted, "tony what? gonzalez who? moeaki!" That was Tony Gonzalez-esque.
* I kept saying the whole second half "these guys don't have a touchdown in them". I was :03 away from nailing that one.
* So the Chiefs sit at 3-0, two clear of the division. But it's not just that, that has me excited. It's not even the fact that everyone is saying "nobody saw this coming!", when all you have to do is click on my 2010 season predictions, where I predicted every effing game, and see I had the Chiefs at 3-0 at the bye.
What has me fired up, is what the rest of the division is facing the next few weeks. denver travels to Tennessee and Baltimore the next two weeks. Pencil them in for 1-4, with the Jets coming to fake mile high after that? oakland hosts Houston and San Diego. Pencil them in at 1-4?
And San Diego, yes, they go vs Arizona / at oakland the next two weeks, and should get to 3-2 ... but Norv Turner is capable of losing any game. And while we have 14 games in common (we have the exact same home / road split of non-divisional foes as San Diego) ... their two non-common games are vs Patriots and at Bengals (on a Monday night in December to boot). Our two non-common games are at Browns (already won), and vs Bills.
No matter what happens in the next two games, the Chiefs are guaranteed to be in first place when they return to Arrowhead on October 24th against a Jaguars team that is a miracle lightning-strike delay away from being 0-3 right now. And after the Jags come Buffalo at home and oakland on the road, where we haven't lost since before Larry Johnson was drafted.
I don't want to get too far ahead of myself ... but look at our remaining schedule. Look at how this team is getting better every week. And will continue to do so, as the young players get more NFL-savvy. If Berry, Dex, Moeaki and Arenas are performing this week in week three, how good are they going to be come late November?
Sunday, for the first time in a long time, every Chiefs fan should have left that stadium with a reasonable expectation that this is a playoff squad. And every Chiefs fan should have left that stadium with the knowledge that this is a force on the rise. Happy days are here again guys (and gals). Enjoy it!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)