Here's what I don't get about the Brett Favre trade.
I understand that Mike Tannenbaum is basically fighting to hold onto his job as GM at this point. I get that Brett Favre, in theory, represents an upgrade over the Pennington / Clemens fiasco from last year.
I understand that Gang Green has dropped millions upon millions of dollars into on-field improvements via free agency, in a desperate attempt to reach the postseason and become something other than the "AFC team that also plays at the home of the defending Super Bowl champions".
Really, I get it.
But what I don't get, from a logical standpoint, is how in the hell does Brett Favre improve the Jets from 4-12 to Super Bowl contenders?
The only reason a team should trade for Favre at this point is if they are legitimately a Pro Bowl caliber QB away from championship contention ... or if they have injury concerns at the position and, barring injury at said QB position, are a legitimate championship contender to begin with. I would say, using that definition, there were 5 teams that made sense for Favre to land with.
5. Minnesota. A lot of people / columnists argued that this was Favre's perfect landing spot. I disagreed with that. First, the Packers were never trading him to their arch rivals. And secondly, there's two AFC and one NFC team that made far, far more sense than Minnesota as his ideal landing spot.
4. Tampa Bay. A trade here made sense ... only, forget the nostalgic factor from last year, and look at the last 3, 4 years. Would you rather have Jeff Garcia or Brett Favre? Garcia may not be as flashy but at least he doesn't chuck 30 balls up for grabs every year, 25 of which get picked. Plus, its not like Tampa is a legitimate championship contender with or without Favre. They won a battered division at 9-7, couldn't do anything on offense in the postseason, and with the Saints and Panthers both healthier this year, I don't see how even with Favre they're better than 3rd place and 7-9, 8-8. Probably good they passed.
3. San Diego. I like Philip Rivers. I love the makeup of the Chargers team, save for the coaching staff, I'm still not sold on Norv Turner. This would have been an ideal landing spot. With Favre under center, the Chargers likely roll to a 3rd straight division title (and 4th in 5 years). But ... even with Philip Rivers under center, that scenario is likely to happen. Favre represents an upgrade to me, and worth the gamble, if and only if San Diego goes to New England in January. I trust Favre a lot more than Rivers in that spot.
2. Carolina. This was the NFC team that made the most sense to me. If Delhomme is healthy, this is a bona fide Super Bowl contender, as they've shown in the two seasons he has been healthy (2003, 2005). But as great as those two seasons were for the Panthers (NFC champs, NFC title game appearance), there's 3 other seasons where Delhomme went down. You put Favre under center, that team is your NFC co-favorites with Dallas and the Giants. Of course, that made too much sense to happen. But the team I thought was the absolute perfect fit for Favre ...
1. Jacksonville. I'm not sold yet on David Garrard. But even if you are ... is there ANY team in the NFL that is a better fit? They're on the short list of established contenders. They've shown they can go on the road and win in January. They have a dominant defense, an established power rushing game, and a rock solid offensive line. What they need is someone to help get them over the hump (Colts), get from 10-6, 11-5 wildcard team to 12-4 division champ, to give them a fighting chance come late January. Favre would have done that. I'm not sure Garrard can.
Plus, if owner Wayne Weaver is serious about keeping the team in Jacksonville ... what better drawing card to avoid blacking out those 10,000 upper deck seats again this year than a Hall of Fame QB gunning for one final championship? How did this not happen?
Back to the Jets though, since they're the team that got Favre (and since they're my 2nd favorite team).
I think with the Pennington / Clemens duo, the Jets likely were already wildcard contenders. If you simply look at the schedule, it sets up well for them:
at Mia / vs NE / at SD (Mon) / vs Arz -- at worst you should be 2-2 entering October, 3-1 if you hold serve against the Pats at home.
bye / vs Cin / at Oak / vs KC -- How do you not sweep this month? 5-2 at worst entering November, with or without Favre.
at Buf / vs StL / at NE (Thurs) / at Tenn / vs den -- here, I will agree, is where Favre can help you. at Buffalo / at Tennessee. With the P/C duo, you likely lose both, and will have to beat Buffalo at home in December to stay alive in the wildcard race. With Favre, you can at least envision winning one or both to get the huge tiebreaker advantage. But again, what the hell is the point of kicking your former franchise QB to the curb, and basically giving up on your future franchise QB after half a season, to simply earn a wildcard berth and get trounced at Indy or Jacksonville in the Saturday prime time wildcard game slot? I'll say with the P/C duo, Jets would be 7-5. With Favre, 8-4.
at SF / vs Buf / at Sea / vs Mia -- 3-1 stretch with either the P/C duo or Favre. So you're 10-6 without Favre, 11-5 with him, playing this thing out in mid August.
You dumped not one, but two, "franchise" quarterbacks, essentially, for a win at Tennessee.
But play devil's advocate. Let's say Favre does lead the Jets to 11-5, as I project he will. Does that win you the AFC East? Well, look at New England's schedule, and barring a plane crash that kills off every decent player they've got, you find me 5 losses in here:
Sept: vs KC / at Jets / vs Mia / bye
Oct: at SF / at SD (NBC) / vs den (Mon) / vs StL
Nov: at Ind (NBC) / vs Buf / vs Jets (Thurs) / at Mia / vs Pit
Dec: at Sea (NBC) / at Oak / vs Arz / at Buf
September, I see 3-0 barring an upset in the Meadowlands. October, I can see them losing at San Diego. November, at Indy, and the Steelers will be competitive. December, maybe at Seattle if the stars align right. That's at worst, most likely, 13-3, more realistically 14-2.
So ... Jets fans, rejoice. We got a Hall of Fame QB, pushing 40 years old ... who might get us one extra win this fall, and if things break really well, will get us the top wildcard, likely to open at the AFC North champ. So he might give us a win in the wildcard round before a divisional beat-down at the AFC home field champ. Basically, what Pennington delivered every year he was healthy.
Congratulations boo birds. You wanted Pennington and his inability to get out of the divisional round out of here. You got it ... for a guy who, at best, will replicate what Pennington already brought to the table. And to think people wonder why the Jets are the lovable losers that they are.
(steve bashing head on desk in frustration ...)
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