Tuesday, August 12, 2008

steve's early week by week nfl preview

Starting with week numero uno, what I'm looking forward to, as the season is now barely 3 weeks away from kickoff!

Week One:
* Chiefs: at Patriots, Sunday noon (CBS). Tough to imagine the Red and Gold doing any better than a 10, 11 point respectable loss.
* Jets: at Dolphins, Sunday noon (CBS). A virtual must win for Gang Green, with the Pats and Chargers looming the next two weeks.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Redskins at Giants, Thursday night (NBC). Huge early showdown in the NFC East. Plus, its the season's opening act.
* Most underrated matchup: Seahawks at Bills, Sunday noon (FOX). Game should tell us a lot about how viable a threat the Bills are for a wildcard berth.
* Worst matchup: Lions at Falcons, Sunday noon (FOX). Hide the women and children.

Week Two:
* Chiefs: vs raiders, Sunday noon (CBS). Home opener, hopefully 90ish and sunny, and the hated arch rivals in town. This game's importance to the Chiefs cannot be understated; I think it holds the key to the entire season.
* Jets: vs Patriots, Sunday 3:15pm (CBS). It would behoove Gang Green to find a way to beat the Pats at home for the first time in 6 years.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Steelers at Browns, Sunday night (NBC). Browns have two really tough games to open the season at home (vs Cowboys, vs Steelers). They need this one badly, since the next two are both divisional road games (at Ravens, at Bengals).
* Most underrated matchup: Bears at Panthers, Sunday noon (FOX). Huge wildcard ramifications for the winner of this in all likelihood.
* Worst matchup: Dolphins at Cardinals, Sunday 3:15pm (CBS). Utterly unwatchable. Even with my boy Chad now under center for Miami.

Week Three:
* Chiefs: at Falcons, Sunday noon (CBS). Highly unwatchable matchup, yet if the Chiefs can steal this roadie, my prediction of 3-2 at the bye seems very doable.
* Jets: at Chargers, Monday night (ESPN). The last time the Jets played in Qualcomm, they won an overtime playoff game. The time before that, Herm unloaded his famous "you play to win the game!" speech, which started a streak that saw NY close 7-2 to win the AFC East.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Cowboys at Packers, Sunday night (NBC). As someone who lived in Dallas when this rivalry was at its peak, its great to see these two back among the NFC elites.
* Most underrated matchup: Jaguars at Colts, Sunday 4:15pm (CBS). Not sure its necessarily "underrated", but the winner of this game is in the drivers seat to win the AFC South. And likely to be the biggest threat to the Patriots repeating as conference champs.
* Worst matchup: Lions at 49ers, Sunday 4:05pm (FOX). Although Chiefs / Falcons is a dud in all likelihood as well.

Week Four:
* Chiefs: vs broncos, Sunday noon (CBS). The one game I live for.
* Jets: vs Cardinals, Sunday noon (FOX). Thank God I'll be at Arrowhead.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Redskins at Cowboys, Sunday 3:15pm (FOX). Another huge NFC East showdown, and we're only in week four.
* Most underrated matchup: Eagles at Bears, Sunday night (NBC). Another game with huge potential wildcard ramifications come December. A home loss to Chicago kept Phily out of the playoffs last year.
* Worst matchup: Chargers at raiders, Sunday 3:05pm (CBS). There really aren't any unwatchable games this week, but this one has 45-3 written all over it.

Week Five:
* Chiefs: at Panthers, Sunday noon (CBS). This one could be intriguing, especially if the Chiefs parlay their September schedule into the 3-1 start that is doable.
* Jets: bye. At worst, they need to be 2-2 at this point. Because the worst stretch is yet to come (as if at Mia against former QB / vs Patriots against hacked off Belichick / at San Diego in prime time isn't brutal ...)
* Matchup most looking forward to: Seahawks at Giants, Sunday noon (FOX). This one might go a long way towards determining home field advantage in the NFC postseason. Great matchup for FOX early on.
* Most underrated matchup: Colts at Texans, Sunday noon (CBS). Huge, huge game for the Texans. If they win this, they emerge as a viable wildcard threat. Arguably the single biggest game in franchise history up to this point. A win here, they're legitimate playoff contenders and in the mix to steal the South. A loss, and its likely another .500 or close to it finish.
* Worst matchup: 49ers at Patriots, Sunday noon (FOX). The NFL record for margin of victory is 73. This one might break it.

Week Six:
* Chiefs: bye. I'm hoping for 3-2 worst case, with two weeks to prepare for Tennessee.
* Jets: vs Bengals, Sunday noon (CBS). A game with potentially huge wildcard ramifications for both teams. Jets have to hold serve at home in these contests if they hope to sneak into the playoffs.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Patriots at Chargers, Sunday night (NBC). Good God, does NBC have a killer lineup early on or what. This one might determine home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
* Most underrated matchup: Jaguars at broncos, Sunday 3:05pm (CBS). The Jags cannot afford to lose games like these (aka "on the road in a tough environment against an inferior opponent they should beat").
* Worst matchup: Ravens at Colts, Sunday noon (CBS). Smells like a 41-10 Indy win.

Week Seven:
* Chiefs: vs Titans, Sunday noon (CBS). One of four huge "bell weather" games for the Chiefs that determine if the season is awful, or a pleasant surprise. If we have any shot at being alive for a wildcard in December, we have to hold serve at home.
* Jets: at raiders, Sunday 3:15pm (CBS). A game the Jets cannot afford to lose. History says they will.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Chargers at Bills, Sunday noon (CBS). The last two times San Diego has gone to Buffalo, they've played in a snowstorm. Unlikely that will happen this time, but this is a huge statement game for the Bills. And a huge trap game for San Diego, with the Pats the week before, and the trip to London to face the Saints up next.
* Most underrated matchup: Seahawks at Bucs, Sunday night (NBC). Should have postseason ramifications. Should also be a fun, competitive matchup. Which is all you want to see in a prime time game. Unless your team is playing, of course.
* Worst matchup: 49ers at Giants, Sunday noon (FOX). Was it really just 5 years ago that these two stages a playoff game for the ages at Candlestick? Wow, who knew firing Mariucci, hiring "Drunk" Dennis Erickson, and now Mike Nolan, were huge mistakes? (Other than everyone, of course).

Week Eight:
* Chiefs: at Jets, Sunday noon (CBS). I smell a live blog on this one.
* Jets: vs Chiefs, Sunday noon (CBS). I also smell a Criqui/Buerelein broadcast.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Giants at Steelers, Sunday 3:15pm (FOX). A battle of two of the last three Super Bowl champs just as the weather starts to turn crappy in western Pennsylvania. I love it.
* Most underrated matchup: Bucs at Cowboys, Sunday noon (FOX). Dallas could be caught looking ahead to next week's humongous showdown with the Giants. Tampa's good enough to spring the upset.
* Worst matchup: raiders at Ravens, Sunday noon (CBS). The last time oakland visited Baltimore, Art Shell patrolled the sidelines, and the raiders committed 19 penalties, 7 turnovers ... and still only lost by 5. Expect more of the same wretched display this time around.

Week Nine:
* Chiefs: vs Bucs, Sunday noon (FOX). A very, very intriguing matchup, especially for Tampa. These are the games you lose, that cost you division titles -- on the road, in a tough environment, but against a team you should beat by at least 10 points.
* Jets: at Bills, Sunday noon (CBS). Humongous wildcard ramifications in this one. Its not possible to understate how huge this matchup looks right now.
* Matchup most looking forward to: (multiple ties). Seriously, you tell me which of these games deserves top billing:

1. Cowboys at Giants, Sunday 3:15pm (FOX)
2. Patriots at Colts, Sunday night (NBC)
3. Steelers at Redskins, Monday night (ESPN)

They all should rock! And I didn't even throw in the Ravens annual visit to the Dog Pound (Sunday noon, CBS), always a great game, or ...

* Most underrated matchup: Eagles at Seahawks, Sunday 3:15pm (FOX). Good Lord, what a week of football!
* Worst matchup: Falcons at raiders, Sunday 3:15pm (FOX). Thank God there's like 55 alternative matchups to check out.

Week Ten:
* Chiefs: at Chargers, Sunday 3:15pm (CBS). Our first non-noon start! Hooray finally getting to sleep in ...
* Jets: vs Rams, Sunday noon (FOX). Need to hold serve at home at this point as the march to the playoffs begins.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Colts at Steelers, Sunday 3:15pm (CBS). I love late afternoon games in Pittsburgh once the weather turns ugly. Its just a beautiful thing to watch usually. Especially when you match up two teams as well coached and talented as these two are. This also is the start a huge, hu-yuge 3 game homestand for the Steelers. vs Colts / vs SD / vs Cin. Sweep all three, they're in the drivers seat to win the North.
* Most underrated matchup: Packers at Vikings, Sunday noon (FOX). If a battle between the likely top two teams in the NFC North can be called "underrated".
* Worst matchup: 49ers at Cardinals, Monday night (ESPN). Really. THIS is a Monday night matchup? What network nitwit looked at the schedule and gave THIS sh*tfest to ESPN?!?!

Week Eleven:
* Chiefs: vs Saints, Sunday noon (FOX). Another intriguing "better road team coming into tough environment needing to avoid a slipup" matchup that the Chiefs will face. We've got about 5 home games in a row like this ...
* Jets: at Patriots, Thursday night (NFLN). I don't like the Jets chances here.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Cowboys at Redskins, Sunday night (NBC). Always a great game when these two get together, especially in prime time.
* Most underrated matchup: Vikings at Bucs, Sunday noon (FOX). Could have huge wildcard ramifications once December rolls around.
* Worst matchup: raiders at Dolphins, Sunday noon (CBS). This might be the single worst game the league will stage this season.

Week Twelve:
* Chiefs: vs Bills, Sunday noon (CBS). The third of the "bell weather" games for the Chiefs. I honestly believe we will be 5-5 or 6-4 entering this matchup. Every year some team comes from 6-4, 5-5 range to grab the last wildcard spot. Like the Chiefs two years ago, who went from 5-4 to playoff bound. The winner of this game has a shot to be that team.
* Jets: at Titans, Sunday noon (CBS). Very intriguing matchup, although I don't think the Titans will be big postseason factors this year. Still, very intriguing.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Colts at Chargers, Sunday night (NBC). Another huge showdown with major home field advantage ramifications. The Chargers used last year's upset of Indy as a springboard to a 6-1 finish that got them into the AFC Title Game.
* Most underrated matchup: Packers at Saints, Monday night (ESPN). Hey, ESPN finally get a meaningful game! Hooray! (kazoo voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
* Worst matchup: raiders at broncos, Sunday 3:15pm (CBS). I will be rooting for several career ending and life threatening injuries in this dud.

Week Thirteen:
* Chiefs: at raiders, Sunday 3:15pm (CBS). The 1999 Chiefs used the raiders / broncos early December road show to save the season and nearly steal the division. Can the 2008 Chiefs do the same?
* Jets: vs broncos, Sunday noon (CBS). A must win home game for Gang Green. Have to serve hold at home against inferior opponents.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Seahawks at Cowboys, Thurs 3:15pm (FOX). Really solid Thanksgiving Day matchup.
* Most underrated matchup: Panthers at Packers, Sunday noon (FOX). Carolina I can't get a read on yet, but if Delhomme is healthy, they're likely in the thick of it for the NFC South title at this point.
* Worst matchup: Dolphins at Rams, Sunday noon (CBS). Time to scan the programming guide for a "Good Times" marathon.

Week Fourteen:
* Chiefs: at broncos, Sunday 3:05pm (CBS). Chiefs haven't won in denver since we closed down Real Mile High Stadium with a 23-22 victory. In 2000. That streak has to end eventually, right?
* Jets: at 49ers, Sunday 3:05pm (CBS). And to think Favre at the 49ers used to mean "NFC Championship at stake".
* Matchup most looking forward to: Patriots at Seahawks, Sunday night (NBC). Cowboys at Steelers (Sunday 3:15, FOX) also looks good. I just like this matchup better.
* Most underrated matchup: Jaguars at Bears, Sunday noon (CBS). Really interesting game for the Jags, with back to back home showdowns against the Packers and Colts looming, and coming off a tough roadie at Houston.
* Worst matchup: Rams at Cardinals, Sunday 3:15pm (FOX). Really, what more needs to be said.

Week Fifteen:
* Chiefs: vs Chargers, Sunday noon (CBS). The fourth of my "bell weather" games. And weather could be a factor in this one as well.
* Jets: vs Bills, Sunday noon (CBS). This one likely determines a wildcard spot. Although both teams might get in, the winner almost assuredly does.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Giants at Cowboys, Sunday night (NBC). Winner is in the drivers seat for the NFC East and possibly for home field advantage. Loser is likely looking at 3 straight road games to reach the Super Bowl.
* Most underrated matchup: Saints at Bears, Sunday noon (FOX). Both should be in the thick of the playoff race. Weather always a factor in December in Chicago.
* Worst matchup: 49ers at Dolphins, Sunday noon (FOX). Does FOX even bother to send a broadcasting crew? I wouldn't.

Week Sixteen:
* Chiefs: vs Dolphins, Sunday noon (CBS). Could be a huge keep-hope-alive layup for the Chiefs ... or could be a battle of two 0-14 squads. Why the NFL rules.
* Jets: at Seahawks, Sunday 3:05 (CBS). Holmgren's last home game. His likely last battle with Favre. Good stuff.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Colts at Jaguars, Sunday noon (CBS). AFC South, potentially a first round bye, and outside shot at home field advantage on the line. Doesn't get much bigger than this one appears to be.
* Most underrated matchup: Chargers at Bucs, Sunday night (NBC). Chargers cannot afford a slip-up if they want home field. Bucs probably need this one to keep pace in the wildcard and possibly the NFC South chase. Good stuff.
* Worst matchup: Cardinals at Patriots, Sunday noon (FOX). That record setting margin of victory the Pats threw up against the 49ers in week 5? Likely to be challenged here.

Week Seventeen:
* Chiefs: at Bengals, Sunday noon (CBS). Is this the final game of the Carl Peterson era?
* Jets: vs Dolphins, Sunday noon (CBS). Could clinch a wildcard berth for Gang Green.
* Matchup most looking forward to: Cowboys at Eagles, Sunday noon (FOX). Could have huge playoff ramifications.
* Most underrated matchup: Patriots at Bills, Sunday noon (CBS). This might be "win and in" for the Bills, while it might be "win and home field" for the Patriots. Great week 17 showdown, potentially.
* Worst matchup: Rams at Falcons, Sunday noon (FOX). The one game on the schedule this week I absolutely positively guarantee you will not be flexed to NBC.

23 days until the games begin!

No comments:

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...