“The most anticipated post of the year”.
My 2010 NFL Predictions.
As always, I have run every team’s schedule, predicting each game’s outcome. This year, I did it in Excel, so you can see how I arrived at each team’s predicted outcome.
There were a few surprises … but only one outcome that truly shocked me.
Let’s do this!
NFC East:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Dallas Cowboys 11-5-0
2. Washington Redskins 10-6-0
3. New York Giants 8-8-0
4. Philadelphia Eagles 4-12-0
Key Game: Redskins at Cowboys, week 15. The winner of that game is who wound up winning this division.
Two Other Key Games: Redskins at Eagles, week 4. If Philly drops this one, its over. You can recover from 0-3. Only one NFL team has ever rallied from 0-4 to make the playoffs (1992 Chargers), and no NFL team has ever started worse than 0-4 and made it. Giants at Packers, week 16. Another do-or-die game late in the season.
Most Surprising Result: none. The Redskins were my sleeper prior to running the schedules, and wound up as the best non-division winner. The Eagles I have been predicting will implode ever since they traded McNabb. And look at their first seven games. 1-6 is NOT a shocking outcome. The Giants smell like a .500 team, which is where they wound up. And Dallas I expected to be a playoff team, and they are.
Final Prediction: I believe this is “Fat” Andy Reid’s final season in Philadelphia. In praise of “Fat” Andy Reid though, what a run! He took over a bottomed out franchise in 1999. Reached the divisional round in 2000. The NFC Title Game in 2001, 2002, and 2003. The Super Bowl in 2004. The divisional round in 2006 and the NFC Title Game again in 2008, plus a wildcard berth in 2009. That’s a helluva run. One that, as a Chiefs fan, I might kill to achieve …
NFC North:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Chicago Bears 10-6-0
2. Green Bay Packers 9-7-0
3. Minnesota Vikings 8-8-0
4. Detroit Lions 4-12-0
Key Game: Packers at Lions, week 14. My predicted humongous upset in this spot not only cost the Packers the division, it cost them a playoff berth.
Two Other Key Games: Redskins at Bears, week 7. A huge mid-season matchup between my two surprise teams. Vikings at Packers, week 7. Might be the biggest game Minnesota will play this year. In the midst of a tough five game stretch against 2009 playoff teams.
Most Surprising Result: the Bears winning the division was a mild surprise. Although I’m not sold on Green Bay at all (no defense), and the Vikings smell like that “overhyped team that opens horribly, then rallies to a respectable finish” team that the 2004 Chiefs were.
Final Prediction: I have the Vikings winning seven of their last nine. That’s because I believe Brad Childress will be fired after losing that week seven Sunday nighter in Lambeau.
NFC South:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Atlanta Falcons 12-4-0
2. Carolina Panthers 9-7-0
3. New Orleans Saints 9-7-0
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11-0
Key Game: Saints at Falcons, week 16. Ends a stretch of four roadies in five games for the Saints, all against plus .500 teams from 2009. They’ll need this one if they want to avoid the wildcard tie-break cluster f*ck scenario I anticipate happening.
Two Other Key Games: Saints at Bucs, week 6. For some reason, the Saints always lose in Tampa. I predicted that outcome once again, ultimately costing the Saints a chance to defend their title. Packers at Falcons, week 12. I can definitely see this one getting flexed to NBC, should be a great shootout of a game.
Most Surprising Result: another mild shocker in Carolina finishing above .500 and getting into said cluster f*ck scenario for the sixth seed. Other than that, nothing.
Final Prediction: anyone who says the NFL favors the good teams in scheduling, note that the Saints close with four of six on the road, all against teams that finished above .500 last season. Anything less than 3-3 in that final six, and I don’t see the Saints reaching the postseason.
NFC West:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. San Francisco 49ers 10-6-0
2. Seattle Seahawks 8-8-0
3. Arizona “Super” Cardinals 6-10-0
4. St. Louis Rams 1-15-0
Key Game: Seahawks at 49ers, week 14. Winner takes the division.
Two Other Key Games: Saints at 49ers, week 2. If the 49ers lose this one, they easily could open 0-4, and open the floodgates to the first ever sub .500 team to qualify for the postseason. 49ers at Packers, week 13. The one difficult game the 49ers face after the bye. And an excellent gauge to see just how big of a threat the 49ers are.
Most Surprising Result: none. There’s only one playoff-caliber team in this division, and they will win it.
Final Prediction: The Rams will clean house after this season in the front office, hiring the best man available to oversee a needed rebuild. That man will be … Carl Peterson.
Playoff Teams:
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. San Francisco 49ers (conference record tiebreak over Bears)
4. Chicago Bears
5. Washington Redskins
6. Carolina Panthers (tiebreaker via record against common opponents over Saints and Packers)
AFC East:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. New England Patriots 12-4-0
2. Miami Dolphins 10-6-0
3. New York Jets 9-7-0
4. Buffalo Bills 5-11-0
Key Game: Dolphins at Jets, week 14. Winner takes a wildcard berth, loser enters the AFC cluster f*ck at 9-7 for last team in.
Two Other Key Games: Dolphins at raiders, week 12. An interesting late November matchup. Jets at Patriots, week 13. I believe this will jump-start the Jets collapse.
Most Surprising Result: the Jets complete collapse down the stretch. Again. We saw it in 2008 (lost 5 of 6 to miss the playoffs). We saw it last year (lost 4 straight before winning last two to steal final playoff berth). And it appears we’re gonna witness it again in 2010, as I have the Jets losing every game they play in December.
Final Prediction: CJ Spiller wins the AFC Rookie of the Year, and leads the Bills to at least one huge upset they have no business pulling off. (My bet? vs Jets week 4).
AFC North:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Baltimore Ravens 11-5-0
2. Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8-0
4. Cleveland Browns 0-16-0
Key Game: Bengals at Ravens, week 17. I have it as a “win and they’re in” scenario for the Bengals. With the predicted loss, they fall into a four way tie for the final playoff berth.
Two Other Key Games: Browns at Bucs, week 1. The Browns best chance at a win? Ravens at Steelers, week 4. The biggest game the Steelers will play this year, as they should be 1-2 entering this one.
Most Surprising Result: none. Steelers open 1-3 without Ben and don’t recover. Ravens open slow with two ridiculously tough roadies, then fly through the rest of the schedule. Bengals are in the playoff mix. And Eric Mangini joins Rod Marinelli in the (justly earned) “worst NFL Coach in history” debate by presiding over a 0-16 squad.
Final Prediction: I have no idea who the Cleveland Browns will select as the first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but he will be a bust.
AFC South:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-5-0
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7-0
3. Tennessee Titans 8-8-0
4. Houston Texans 7-9-0
Key Game: Colts at Patriots, week 11. Winner gets home field advantage in the AFC. Loser risks having to win three, two of them likely on the road, to get to Dallas in February.
Two Other Key Games: Cowboys at Texans, week 3. Believe it or not, this is a huge rivalry. Even though they’ve only played for keeps twice. Jaguars at Texans, week 17. A game that should have huge wild card ramifications.
Most Surprising Result: the Texans. This one shocked me. I really have been high on the Texans chances prior to today. But look at the schedule – you find me more than seven wins in there. And I was extremely generous in giving them wins over Indy, Dallas, and Baltimore to get to seven.
Final Prediction: the Texans clean house after this season, giving Bill Cowher complete control over the franchise.
AFC West:
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6-0
2. oakland raiders 9-7-0
3. denver broncos 7-9-0
4. san diego “super” chargers 7-9-0
Key Game: Chiefs at raiders, week 9. If the Chiefs do what they’ve done seven straight times, they’re in great shape to win the division.
Two Other Key Games: Chargers at Chiefs, week 1. Everything I based my Chiefs season predictions on, is based on winning this game. It’s the biggest game Arrowhead has hosted since denver on Thanksgiving Night 2006. broncos at raiders, week 15. As always, if an act that is terroristic in nature occurs during this game, it is NOT a national tragedy.
Most Surprising Result: that the Chargers even won seven? This team is not that good. Two of their best players are holding out, and will miss a significant chunk of the season. They’re still coached by “Stanley Roper”. And unlike the last three years, when horrendous starts gave way to rock solid Decembers thanks to padded schedules, there’s no layups down the stretch for the Chargers this year. The last six are all against either hated divisional rivals, or teams I project to finish above .500.
Final Prediction: the AFC West is poised to return to its glory days of the late 1990s / early 2000s, when every team had a shot to win the division every year. Over the 10 year stretch between 1993 and 2002, every team won the division at least once, three different teams reached the Super Bowl, and all four teams played for the AFC championship. (Seattle won the division in 1999, but that’s it – they’re the only team that didn’t win at least one playoff game in that stretch).
Oh, and before you call me a “homer”, and “completely insane” … realize that ESPN the Magazine picked our Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West. ESPN. A (somewhat) credible source. They picked the Chiefs. Now, I will grant you, knowing my luck, Jeremy Green wrote the AFC West preview, and he was high on blow while watching kiddie porn at the time he wrote his column. (Allegedly, of course. You are always innocent until proven guilty in a court of law, no matter how many pipes, kiddie porn files, and grams of crack you’re arrested with in that hotel room). But still – I’m not driving the Chiefs bandwagon this year. ESPN the Magazine is.
Playoff Teams:
1. New England Patriots 12-4-0
2. Baltimore Ravens 11-5-0 (conference record tiebreak over Colts)
3. Indianapolis Colts 11-5-0
4. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6-0
5. Miami Dolphins 10-6-0
6. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7-0. I think, emphasis on think, I think I calculated this right. I have four teams from four different divisions finish 9-7 (Jets, Bengals, Jags, raiders). The first tiebreak is within the division, but there is no divisional tiebreak to, uuh, break. So, second tiebreak would be head to head. Each only played one of the other teams. I have the Jags beating the raiders, and the Jets beating the Bengals. So, if I’m right, then it’s down to the Jags and Jets. They did not play head to head. Here’s where I get confused, but either way, the Jags win. If the second tiebreaker is common opponents, the Jags win 3-1 vs 2-2. If its conference record, the Jags win 7-5 vs 6-6. So … I’m picking the Jaguars to earn the right to lose 44-13 to Indy to open the 2010 Playoffs.
Postseason Predictions:
Wild Card Round:
5 Redskins over 4 Bears
3 49ers over 6 Panthers
4 Chiefs over 5 Dolphins
3 Colts over 6 Jaguars
Divisional Round:
1 Falcons over 5 Redskins
2 Cowboys over 3 49ers
1 Patriots over 4 Chiefs
3 Colts over 2 Ravens
Championship Round:
2 Cowboys over 1 Falcons
3 Colts over 1 Patriots
Super Bowl Prediction:
Cowboys 34, Colts 31.
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