Friday, September 16, 2011

the week two picks

Last Week ATS: 6-9-1. Oh yeah, bad gambling's back baybee!
Season to Date ATS: 6-9-1.

Last Week SU: 7-9-0. That's the awful prognosticator y'all know and love!
Season to Date SU: 7-9-0.

Last Week Upset of the Week ATS: winner!
Last Week Upset of the Week SU: loser!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 1-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-1.
This Week's Upset of the Week: "take a mother f*cking guess"

The Games of Peak Interest to Other Folks:

* Packers (-9) 35, at Panthers 13. For those ready to ride Cam Newton, never forget: Ryan Leaf opened 2-0 as a starter.
* at Bills (-3) 24, raiders 20. Smells like a field goal game, have to bump the margin to 4 for spread wagering purposes.
* Bucs (+3) 31, at Vikings 20. How the hell are the Vikings favored?
* at Saints (-7) 38, Bears 10. Feels like a layup comfy victory for the Saints.
* at Colts (+2 1/2) 3, Browns 0. Your "Good Times Game o' The Week!" Dynomite!
* at Redskins (-4) 20, Cardinals 13. Could be a sneaky good noon game.
* at 49ers (+3) 24, Cowboys 17. Glad I wasn't on the Romo Recovery Bandwagon this year.
* Texans (-3) 21, at Dolphins 14. I have zero confidence in this pick.
* at Patriots 34, Chargers (+7) 31. Smells like an overtime classic.
* Ravens (-6) 27, at Titans 20. Too bad Brian Billick doesn't have the call on this one. Banshee alert!
* Bengals (+4) 17, at broncos 10. One down, fifteen to go to immortality, denver! You can do it!!!
* at Steelers (-14) 45, Seahawks 3. And the NFL assigned Bill Leavy to officiate this one. I love Goodell's sense of humor sometimes.
* Eagles (-2 1/2) 24, at Falcons 20. Tremendous Sunday nighter. Tremendous.
* Rams (+4 1/2) 31, at Giants 20. Horrendous Monday nighter. Horrendous.

The Gang Green Prediction:

* at Jets (-9) 31, Jaguars 20. The Jets better win this one -- the next three are at raiders / at Ravens / at Patriots. Not much history between these two teams. Jets beat the Jags in their only postseason meeting, in the divisional round in 1998. Jags won the last meeting, at the Real Meadowlands two years ago, a defeat that nearly (and should have) cost the Jets a playoff berth. Here's to hoping the Jets take this one a little more seriously than that took the Cowboys game. Again, look at those next three. That is just about the most brutal three game roadie imaginable -- the raiders home opener (and they're much, much better than I thought they would be), the Ravens in prime time, and at the hated Patriots in the national 3:15 CBS slot.

The Chiefs "Upset of the Week" Prognostication:

I don't often pick the Chiefs as the Upset of the Week.

Mainly because, when we're underdogs, it's usually for a rock solid reason. For example, the 2007 Chiefs were horrendous. The 2008 Chiefs were underdogs in every game they played, and went 2-14. 2-14! I'll never forget that season, if only for two reasons:

a. we whipped denver's ass eight ways from Sunday on that magical final Sunday in September. And
b. we whipped denver's ass eight ways from Sunday on that magical final Sunday in September!

(Note: when whipping denver's ass eight ways from Sunday is the highlight of your season ... you know what? I'm good with it. That day was that awesome, right down to the ex-roommate openly taunting denver fans leaving in darrent williams jerseys, asking "how'd your boy do today!" I love drunken postgame tailgating sometimes. Especially after whipping denver's ass eight ways from Sunday. November 13th can't get here soon enough! Oh wait, it can -- I'm not ready for this cold weather yet. Seriously, it was “t-shirts not needed!” hot on Sunday, and it’s not even 53 degrees outside right now! How? How the hell does this happen? I hate every season other than summer. Ok, back to the “you’re damned right we’re whipping some Lions ass this week!” pep talk …)

The 2009 Chiefs? Another level of awful. We were favored in one game all season, and lost (against oakland at home, and we were demolished, 23-8). Then came last season, when we were favored more often than not, but in what turned out to be the second biggest game of the season (behind only the playoff game), we were a nine point underdog to the San Diego "Super" Chargers.

Nine point underdogs. To an overvalued, overrated, overhyped squad that had achieved nothing of consequence on the football field. Sound familiar? It should, because once again, the Red and Gold is a nine point underdog to an overvalued, overrated, overhyped squad that has achieved NOTHING of consequence on the football field.

And just like on that amazing Monday night virtually one year ago, the Chiefs will not only cover the spread, they will win outright on Sunday. Unlike that Chargers Monday nighter from last year though, we will win in convincing, no doubt about it fashion this time.

I love how the media is making such a big deal about the Lions winning their last five games that count. La de f*cking da. Look at who those five wins are against -- they beat the Bucs twice (not exactly a juggernaut), beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, beat a Dolphins team (in Miami) that went 1-7 at home, and beat a 6-9 Vikings team. I would hope -- scratch that, I would EXPECT -- any team to be able to navigate that "difficult" stretch in the schedule. I mean, really? On the basis of beating a backup QB, a team starting Joe Webb at QB, a team starting Chad Henne at QB, and a Bucs team so "beloved" by the local fanbase that they haven't sold out a game in three years, on the basis of that, we're supposed to fear these guys? They’re the 9 point favorite? Screw that!

I firmly believe that Todd Haley will come up with an offensive game plan to drop 30 on these guys. I completely believe that Romeo Crennel will come up with a gameplan to confuse and befuddle the Lions offense. And if there is ANYTHING I believe in more than that, it's that Gunther Cunningham will blitz too much, and the Chiefs will take huge advantage of it.

Remember what I said in the season-long predictions. That moment at the Wilderness, when Grant finally reached his breaking point with his generals, and screamed "it's time we start talking about what we're gonna do to General Lee!" Like Grant, I am sick and tired of hearing the negative. Detroit? What can they do to us? They're the damned Detroit Lions the last time I checked! It's high time we talk about what Tamba Hali is gonna do to them, not what Ndamakung Suh wishes he could do to us. It's about time we talk about how Jamaal Charles is gonna drop 165 with 2 touchdowns on their defense, rather than what Jahvid Best dreams about doing to us.

We are winning this game. I am staking my reputation as the blogosphere's worst prognosticator on that statement. We ARE winning this game!

Chiefs (+9) 31, Lions 13. Make sure there's plenty of room in the inbox on your phone for the best text message of the season, the moment 2011 officially becomes a race for the trophy. Because come 3:30ish on Sunday afternoon, believe, expect, demand you get the best three word text message out of me you'll ever get, and it ain't "wanna hook up". Three words that define a never-give-up mentality, a belief that this franchise can achieve greatness, a tradition that started after the season-saving win five years ago against the Chargers at Arrowhead, in the jubilation of winning on a 53 yard field goal as time expired.

"Season f*cking on!"

Come 3:30ish on Sunday, it will DEFINITELY be on ...

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