Thursday, November 3, 2011

week 9: the contrarians would approve


"Got my toes in the water,
Ass in the sand,
Not a worry in the world,
A cold beer in my hand,
Life is good today.
Life is good today!!! ...

Adios and vaya con mios!
Yeah I'm leaving (MO)!
And if it weren't for tequila,
And pretty senoritas,
I'd have no reason to stay!

Adios and vaya con mios!
Yeah I'm leaving (MO)!
Gonna lay in the hot sun,
And roll a big fat one,
And grab my guitar and play ..."

-- "Toes" by Zac Brown Band.  Not even 24 hours from right now?  That EXACT scenario plays out for me!  Hang on ... (kazoo voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I'm off to Fort Lauderdale for my cousin's wedding.  Look out beach dwellers -- shirtless white guy in desperate need of some sun coming your way!!!!  And if I don't make it back by kickoff on Sunday (my flight allegedly lands at 10:40am KC time)?  If I have to spend more time on the beach than I'm already planning to?  Life is good today.  Life is GOOD today!!! ...

-----------------------

Last Week ATS: 7-5-1.
Season to Date ATS: 56-42-5.

Last Week SU: 6-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 55-48-0.

Last Week Upset / Week: looked good for a half.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 4-3-1.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 1-7-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: Colts (+7) over Falcons.  I'm renaming this portion of the column to ... well, you have to keep reading to see what the new name of this section of the picks is now.

The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Prognostications:

* tebows (+2 1/2) 2, at raiders 0.  I hate both of these teams so much, I think its best to simply move on to the next pick, before I type something that gets me on Homeland Security's radar.

* at Saints 24, Bucs (+8) 20.  Line is at least a couple points too high.  Bucs keep it close.

* at Titans 21, Bengals (+2 1/2) 20.  Not sold on this pick at all.  At all.

* at Colts (+7) 24, Falcons 20.  The artist formerly known as the "Upset of the Week" is now the "SCREW YOU PETE KING" pick of the week.  In the interest of full disclosure, there is no NFL writer who pisses me off more on a consistent basis than Pete King of Sports Illustrated.  Last year, in his weekly "MMQB" column, he had the Chargers rated ahead of the Chiefs EVERY SINGLE WEEK (including his postseason columns), despite the fact that San Diego was AT LEAST one game behind the Chiefs every freaking week of the season, and that pesky little fact that, you know, SAN DIEGO DIDN'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.  The reason for this is simple: Pete King hates the Chiefs, and is so deep in bed with the Chargers, it's a struggle for him to walk every morning, it hurts so much between his legs.

Which is fine -- I have NO problems with bias in the media.  Why the hell do you think I watch MSNBC?  I lean left politically.  I want my news source to validate my take on the issues of the day.  (Even if that's becoming more challenging by the day.  I'm telling you, between the incompetence of Obama and the freak show that is the Occupy movement, my side isn't winning another national election for at least a generation.  It took twelve years to get America to trust us again after Jimmy Carter.  It's going take at least twice as long post-Barry.)  Having said that, however, you would think that in his Tuesday "MMQB" column, which is half-recap of the MNF game, half-reader email, you would think he'd toss at least a couple kind words in the Chiefs direction.

Well ... of course he didn't.  He spent six paragraphs bemoaning his beloved Chargers losing the game ... and spent exactly zero words giving credit to the Chiefs for taking advantage of the opportunity San Diego gave them.  I halfway expect Ol' Pete to pick the Dolphins to win this week. 

(Update: he took the Chiefs 23-10, noting "I'm stunned by Kansas City's resurgence".  He also (go figure) picked his beloved Chargers to upset the Packers, because "the Chargers will hold Aaron Rodgers to 8 or 9 possessions".  How the hell that's gonna happen when they couldn't limit Matt Freaking Cassel to "8 or 9 possessions" is beyond my limited brain capacity to figure out.  He closes his Chargers upset pick by noting "Mike Tolbert, this is your moment".  Apparently Ol' Pete can't read a f*cking injury report.)

Anyways, since my former "Upset of the Week" is going so spectacularly awful this year, I'm renaming it in honor of the biggest waste of space in Sports Illustrated.  The "Screw You Pete King" initial pick?  Of course I'm taking the Colts.  Because really, how can Sunday Night Football (of which Ol' Pete is a part of) POSSIBLY survive without seven Colts telecasts a year?  I know my life is enriched by watching the Saints tune the Colts 62-7.  And I can hardly wait for that Patriots / Colts showdown that Ol' Pete verbally fellates every year, even though save for one playoff game, their matchups NEVER live up to the hype.  (In case you can't tell, I really dislike Pete King.)

And now, back to the picks.

* Rams (+3) 41, at Cardinals 3.  How is Arizona favored?  How are the Rams 1-6?  And how in the hell am I in positive figures on my predictions?  I mean, how can I be the world's worst handicapper if I'm turning a profit?

* at Patriots (-8 1/2) 74, Giants 0.  The Giants stink folks.  They absolutely stink.  They're the worst 5-2 team in NFL history.  They might not win again this year, they're that God awful.  You find me a win in their next six -- at Patriots, at 49ers, vs Eagles (SNF), at Saints (MNF), vs Packers, at Cowboys (SNF).  You find me just ONE win in there.  If you need extra cash for the kiddies' Chrismukkah gifts, the easiest way to get it is to load up against the G-Men.

* Packers (-5) 41, at Chargers 10.  If you think San Diego is recovering from Monday night, please -- seek immediate professional mental help.  This team is softer than cotton candy.  If you need extra cash for the wife / girlfriend / significant other / random bar pickup's Chrismukkah gifts, I'd strongly suggest laying the 5 and laugh all the way to the bank.  "Hold Aaron Rodgers to 8 or 9 possessions".  All well and good if he doesn't SCORE on all "8 or 9 possessions", Pete. 

* at Steelers 24, Ravens (+3 1/2) 21.  Love the half point.  Should be a typical Steelers / Ravens slugfest.  (stevo pumping fists in anxious anticipation!!!)

* 49ers (-3 1/2) 31, at Redskins 10.  How's that coaching career going without john elway to bail your ass out, shanarat?  Yeah.  I thought so. 

* at Cowboys (-11 1/2) 45, Seahawks 3.  Your "Good Times Game O' The Week"!  (clap!)  Dy-No-Mite!!!  And yes, I would absolutely not only opt to watch a four hour marathon of "Good Times" over watching two seconds of this game, I'd PAY to watch said four hour marathon of "Good Times".  Hell, I could be talked into a four hour marathon of "The Worst Show of All Time" over this garbage game.

* at Texans (-11 1/2) 41, Browns 0.  If someone can rationally explain to me how the hell the Texans are favored by 11 1/2, and the Chiefs are only favored by 4 over a winless, hapless, God awful Dolphins team, I'd LOVE to hear that rational explanation.  Because I sure as hell can't figure it out.

* at Eagles (-8 1/2) 34, Bears 12.  OK, I'll say it: Chargers at Chiefs will be, barring something completely unforeseen, THE best Monday Night Football game of the season.  And by "something completely unforeseen", I am cautiously optimistic that "something completely unforeseen" is occurring November 21st.

The Jets Best Guess:

It's our House of Horrors.  Put it this way -- the Jets could be 7-0 (instead of 4-3, 0-3 away from the Fake Meadowlands), the Bills could be 0-7 (instead of 5-2, 3-0 at the Ralph) ... and I'd still bet every damned cent in my bank account (all 302 of them) on the Bills.  at Bills (-1 1/2) 27, Jets 20.

* In case you missed it, my recap of one of the greatest games I have ever been privileged enough to witness in person.  And if admitting I cried after that fumble recovery, if admitting I sobbed after that victory means I need to "man up dude!", then so be it.  Because if you weren't moved to tears by THAT game?  How the hell can you call yourself a Chiefs fan?

And now ... The Chiefs Prognostication.

Well, how do you follow THAT game up?

I was talking with some friends after bowling league last night, and everyone, to a man, was / is convinced that the Miami Dolphins are going to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday.  And believe me, I was one of those people.  This game has me scared to death.  Scared.  To.  Death.

And then, as I was watching some crappy show on television last night*, it hit me.

THIS ... is the Wayne Allyn Root Memorial Game of the Year.

(*: I don't know what I was watching, but it was some atrocious show on NBC with Kathy Bates in it.  In my defense, I was packing for my trip to Florida this weekend, was pushing a .25 on the BAC, and oh yeah, SCREAMING MULTIPLE OBSENITIES AT THE STUPIDITY THAT IS THE NBA LOCKOUT!  I need my NBA!  I swear, I flip up to the NBA League Pass channels, and just start crying.  I'm like an addict on day two of withdrawal.  I need my January roadie to Milwaukee to watch BJ drop 55 on some unsuspecting team.  I need my January roadie to Milwaukee to drink $500 worth of liquor for $20 at Joe's.  I need my January roadie to Milwaukee, if only to remind me that there are worse places to live in January than KC.  I just need the NBA back in my life.  Cancelling games over $40 million dollars is INSANE.  It's dumber than ANYTHING Barack Obama has done since taking elected office, and everyone knows he's f*cked the country eight ways from Sunday.  End this already guys.  Just end it.  Before the three NBA die-hards in the KC metro area drops to two.)

In case you have no idea who Wayne Allyn Root is ... well, he's a well known sports wagerist.  He's the pioneer of all those Saturday morning gambling shows you might have watched on USA or WGN fifteen to twenty years ago*.  The man is a Vegas icon. 

(*: I miss the Saturday morning gambling shows.  I need Big Al McMordie back in my life.  I need "Two Time AFC Coach of the Year" Ron Meyer back in my life.  I need "Five Star Guaranteed Lock of the Year, Or You Get the Rest of the Year for Free" back in my life.  I even kind of miss my dad angrily asking "who the hell keeps calling this 1-900 number" when sitting down to pay the bills.)

Wayne Allyn Root wrote a book called "The Zen of Gambling", that is a must read for any serious gambler.  Because in it, he lays out his one guiding theory for successful sports wagering.

And it is this: when EVERY man and his brother is leaning one way, bet EVERYTHING on the opposite.  Because the public is almost always wrong.

Every person I know thinks this is going to be a close, hard fought contest that the Dolphins are more than capable of winning.  Which is why I'm going contrarian, and predicting the Chiefs to win comfortably.  Or at least as comfortably as this flawed team is capable of.

At Chiefs (-4) 27, Dolphins 10.

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also, apologies on the layout ...

Something went bat sh*t crazy when I tried to upload the previous post.  I'll work on fixing it Tuesday.  I didn't change a thing; t...