Friday, April 17, 2009

nba first round playoff picks

40 Games in 40 Nights! Its five of the sweetest words in the English language!

Yup, its playoff time! Sadly, my Milwaukee BuKCs will not be participating this year, but considering the ridiculous injury situations they endured, 34-48 and within striking distance of the 8th seed constitutes one helluva season to build on.

Here's my thoughts on the first round series. We'll start in the East ...

1 Cavaliers vs 8 Pistons: if I'm a Cavs fan (and I'm not really one), I'm a little concerned by this series. Not def-con five worried, but concerned. Detroit still has enough veteran talent and pride to push the Cavs. They will not go quietly. The Pistons core has known since the Billups / Iverson trade that this is their last hurrah, the team is getting blown up this summer. Kind of reminds me of the Kings / Spurs 1 v 8 first rounder three years ago, the last gasp of those solid early 2000s Kings teams. They pushed the Spurs to six before folding. I envision the same thing here. Cavs in 6.

2 Celtics vs 7 Bulls: the single most unpredictable matchup on the board because of the Garnett injury. For what its worth, I think KG comes back if they get to the second round. He's too much like McHale, he'll literally risk his entire remaining career to pursue one more ring. The Bulls are inconsistent, but closed 16-4 to roar from afterthought to seventh seed. I can't wait to see Derrick Rose on the national stage as well. Jordan's first playoff series was a Celtics sweep, but he announced his arrival to the world in that series. Wouldn't shock me to see the same here with Mr. Rose. Although I think Chicago will win at least once. Celtics in 5.

3 Magic vs 6 76ers: intriguing matchup. The Magic fell off after the Jameer Nelson injury. The 76ers came together after the Elton Brand injury. The key to this series is game two. I expect the Magic to win the opener. I expect the 76ers to hold serve at home, the Philly crowd is just dynamic in the postseason, in any sport. So to me, game two decides the series. If the 76ers steal game two, they're winning this series. I'll say they get it done. 76ers in 6.

4 Hawks vs 5 Heat: possibly the most underrated matchup on the board. The Hawks gave the Celtics everything they could handle in a 7 game defeat last spring, and they've been locked into the four seed since Opening Night. The Heat have been coming together quite nicely since inserting Steve favorite Mario Chalmers into the starting lineup. Two evenly matched teams that are fun to watch. Should be a great series. Hawks in 7.

1 Lakers vs 8 Jazz: I had Utah as the number one seed out West in my preseason predictions. Oy. They might take one in Utah, but they're not guarding, slowing, or even remotely stopping the Lakers express from rolling on. Lakers in 4.

2 Nuggets vs 7 Hornets: I really like this Hornets team. A lot. The Nuggets should be commended for grabbing the Northwest title and the two seed, but this is a bad matchup for them. CP will neutralize Billups, and Denver just doesn't have the inside presence to counter David West and Tyson Chandler. This is a bad matchup for the Nuggets. Hornets in 6.

3 Spurs vs 6 Mavericks: three years ago these two staged one of the greatest playoff series I've ever seen, culminating with a double OT Dallas victory in San Antonio in game seven. The good old days, when I was happily unemployed, living off the severance package, and was able to stay up until 1am watching hoops every night with no negative consequences. The Spurs are beat up, they're short handed. They have no Ginobili, a beat up Duncan, and you can kind of see the title window slamming shut ... but I just can't pick against them. Not yet, anyways. Spurs, somehow, someway, win this in 7.

4 Blazers vs 5 Rockets: THE series I am looking forward to. My man crush (Brandon Roy)'s first chance to truly shine on the national stage. Against a Houston team that has found a way to lose in round one every year this decade. The youthful Blazers with a ton of potential and championships ahead of them ... against a dangerous, veteran Rockets squad that never lived up to its potential or championship dreams. Yet, anyways. I almost always side with the veteran team with its back to the wall, in any sport really ... only this Rockets squad has never come through in that spot. I'll go with the Blazers in 5, I say they steal game 4 in Houston and close it out at the Rose Garden as Roy drops 50, the confetti flies, and on a couch in south KC, I smile broadly at seeing the League's next powerhouse team take its first steps towards greatness.

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