Reason 12 was originally Reason 15 because, well, they're "The Fine Fifteen".
I went through, and identified 15 of the absolute worst head coaching hires of the last 20 years. My criteria to identify the worst of the worst was simple:
1. They had to take over a team that had been successful in the previous five years, or hired to replace an established rock solid head coach, and
2. They had to be inept, incompetent, clueless, or an absolute joke from the get-go, or
3. Their replacement made their hiring look even worse than it probably was.
Each of these Fine Fifteen fit at least one of these categories. Some, like Ray Rhodes, fit all three! Way to go Ray!
Amazingly enough, some of these Fine Fifteen were actually "successful" in their jobs, at least for a while. One of them actually won Super Bowl XXX. Another reached Super Bowl XXXVII. Another reached the playoffs his first four years on the job.
Because of requirement 1, there were a number of wretched hires that I tossed out. For example, even though he appears on this list, I could have considered Ray Rhodes for his Eagles tenure. But he replaced Rich Kotite. Sadly, that's probably a step up. Ditto Kotite moving on to the Jets. He followed such coaching geniuses as "Joe Must Go" Walton, Bruce "Milk It!" Coslet, and Pete Carroll, whose one year at the helm is most remembered for the Jets brain fart on Marino's fake spike that sent the season into a downward spike. Not exactly replacing legends or success in that case.
The Fine Fifteen that I settled on are:
* Bud Carson, Cleveland Browns. Replaced Marty Schottenheimer, who was fired, in 1989.
* Jack Pardee, Houston Oilers. Replaced Jerry Glanville, who was fired, in 1990.
* Rich Kotite, Philadelphia Eagles. Replaced Buddy Ryan, who was fired, in 1991.
* Ray Handley, New York Giants. Replaced Bill Parcells, who retired, in 1991.
* Richie Petitbone, Washington Redskins. Replaced Joe Gibbs, who retired, in 1993.
* Wade "Son of Bum" Phillips, denver broncos. Replaced Dan Reeves, who was fired, in 1993.
* Barry Switzer, Dallas Cowboys. Replaced Jimmy Johnson, who was fired, in 1994.
* Kevin Gilbride, San Diego Chargers. Replaced Bob Ross, who left for the Lions job, in 1997.
* Ray Rhodes, Green Bay Packers. Replaced Mike Holmgren, who left for the Seahawks job, in 1999.
* Gunther Cunningham, Kansas City Chiefs. Replaced Marty Schottenheimer, who resigned, in 1999. (Note: this one pained me. Big time. I love Gun. But this was an awful, awful hire in hindsight, and the beginning of the end of Carl in KC).
* Al Groh, New York Jets. Replaced Bill Parcells, who retired again, in 2000.
* Mike "Meathead" Tice, Minnesota Vikings. Replaced Dennis Green, who was bought out of his contract with one game remaining in the 2001 season, in 2002.
* "Sur" William Callahan, oakland raiders. Replaced Jon Gruden, who left for the Buccaneers job, in 2002.
* "Drunk" Dennis Erickson, San Francisco 49ers. Replaced Steve Mariucci, who was fired, in 2003.
* Scott Linehan, St. Louis Rams. Replaced Mike Martz, who was fired midway through the 2005 season, in 2006.
Let's look at the pre-Fine Fifteen stats for the franchises they took over:
A few things stood out to me:
1. All the Fine Fifteen replaced coaches who had reached the playoffs two years prior, nine replaced coaches coming off consecutive postseason appearances. In my opinion, and since this is my blog, that's what counts, these teams overreacted to a "down" season.
(Or in Jerry Jones' case, a drunken night and some foul language in a hotel bar).
2. Only two of the Fine Fifteen were retreads, Ray Rhodes and Dennis Erickson. Meaning thirteen of these guys got their first (and in many cases, only) shot at running a team. And finally,
3. All took over established teams used to winning. They weren't Jim Schwantz taking over the Detroit Lions this year. These guys weren't being given the keys to a lemon.
Now that we've seen the background, let's see the results. None of the Fine Fifteen survived a fifth season, and only one made it that far (although he was fired after a 1-7 start that year):
Let's take this year by year:
* Three coaches didn't last to a second season -- the Redskins pulled the plug on Petitbone after a catastrophic campaign. The Packers corrected their idiotic hire of Ray Rhodes as soon as the 1999 season ended. And Al Groh resigned from the Jets to take over his alma mater (Virginia), where things are going about as well as they would have if he'd stayed in New York.
* Five coaches coasted on the fumes of their predecessor's talent development and reached the postseason. Two reached their conference title games (Switzer, Callahan), and Callahan reached the Super Bowl. (Switzer should have; the non-pass interference call on Deion Sanders raping Michael Irvin still p*sses me off to this day). Even more amazingly though
* Eleven of the Fine Fifteen managed to at least go .500 in their first season. Kotite missed the playoffs on tiebreakers. And a twelth (Erickson) was 7-8 entering his finale, so a .500 season was within his grasp.
Overall, all these guys pretty much started out ok. And then the Peter Principle began to kick in.
* Of the remaining 12 coaches still employed, half were fired by their teams, and a seventh resigned due to health concerns (amidst a 3-13 campaign). Only three reached the playoffs, highlighted by Barry Switzer delivering Dallas' fifth Lombardi Trophy to Valley Ranch. The Fine Fifteen was down to Five entering year three.
And here's where the research stumped me. I have always believed that a coach shows his true abilities in the third season. He might fool you in the first two, running on the fumes of his predecessor, but by year three, its his team, and if he's an idiot, it'll show.
Of the five remaining coaches, three reached the playoffs in year three, and another managed to go .500 with a ridiculously injury-riddled roster. Four of these five loons managed to either achieve or overachieve. Only Scott Linehan met his maker, so to speak.
I fully expected Reason 12 to be "Because Crappy Coaches of Good Teams Bomb Out in Year Three". I was all expecting to pounce on Norv Turner, the lovable "Stanley Roper" of coaches, and say "aha! This is the year he finally costs the Chargers".
Only ... I can't do it.
Which is ok.
It just means we're gonna have to go out and take it from him. Nothing comes easy in the AFC West. Other than al davis jokes, of course. So while my crack research didn't yield me the outcome I expected, I do take comfort in this.
Its Norv Turner.
If anyone can break the "if they're 2 for 2, they go 3 for 3 in making the playoffs" mold of the Fine Fifteen, its this lovable loser. A man who's a botched extra point away from being 0-2 at home against the 6-26 Kansas City Chiefs. A man who's a botched onside kick recovery away from being unemployed right now and being a Year Two casualty, like half the Fine Fifteen were.
Norv Turner's presence ensures ANYONE can win this division. Including the Red and Gold. Have faith KC.
Reason 11 is all about you, after all ...
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