steve's nba predictions

As much as I hate fall and winter due to the changing temperatures (aka "its friggin freezing outside"), it does bring with it one happy thing.

The return of basketball!

The pro version of the sport tips off tomorrow night at the Q and Staples Center. NBA 2009-2010! Yes!

In case you forgot from last fall, I accurately nailed the NBA champion for a second straight season last year, and even better, we adopted a team to support! There's still plenty of room on the Bucks bandwagon. Season for Milwaukee starts Friday in Philadelphia. Yup, I'm ready.

This figures to be a really intriguing season. As I see it, there's five teams with legitimate championship hopes (Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, LA Lakers, San Antonio). There's five more that with a break here or there, can make a run to the conference finals if not The Finals (Washington, Atlanta, Denver, Portland, Dallas).

At the bottom, you have five teams with no playoff hopes on Opening Night (New Jersey, New York, Sacramento, Minnesota, Golden State), and three more that will need acts of God to reach the playoffs (Indiana, Charlotte, Memphis). That leaves 12 teams fighting for six playoff spots. That's your intrigue. Slots 6-8 in each conference.

You also have the hanging economic collapse of the league. You have 8-10 owners right now who literally are broke thanks to the recession. You have another 2-3 owners who would sell yesterday if they could get a semi-reasonable offer. The NBA is beginning to look like Major League Baseball in the 2-3 seasons after the strike. The top teams will only get better, because they have to keep up with everyone else. You saw that this summer. The Cavs traded for Shaq, so the Magic traded for Vince Carter, and the Celtics signed "Rashweed" Wallace. The Lakers signed Ron Artest (a dumb move; I'd have kept Ariza instead, but short term it will work), so the Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson, the Blazers signed Andre Miller, and even the Hornets went out and got Emeka Okafur.

Conversely, the bottom teams will only get worse, because it makes no sense to lose money if you have no hope to win. Hence the Nets dumping Vince Carter, the Bobcats shedding Okafur, the Rockets letting Artest go, the Suns trading Shaq, and the Bucks trading Richard Jefferson and letting Ramon Sessions walk.

This is going to be one dreadful regular season for the most part ... but come the playoffs, its going to be incredible.

Here you go, my NBA season predictions.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division

1. Boston Celtics.
2. Toronto Raptors.
3. Philadelphia 76ers.
4. New York Knicks.
5. New Jersey Nets.

Reasoning / Analysis: Boston is the best team in the conference on paper. They were last year too, until injuries derailed the title defense. Still, to survive Chicago and push Orlando to seven was awesome to watch. The Raptors and 76ers both figure to be in the 42-45 win range, and be first round fodder for the Big Three in the East. The Knicks are still recovering from the Isiah Thomas Error, and the Nets are in full on Tankapaloosa mode already.

Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers.
2. Milwaukee Bucks.
3. Chicago Bulls.
4. Detroit Pistons.
5. Indiana Pacers.

Reasoning / Analysis: Cleveland might clinch this thing by Valentine's Day. I'll put it this way: the only way Cleveland doesn't win this division is if LBJ misses 50 games. And even then, they still probably have enough to win it. The Bucks are second by default, simply because I think having Redd and Bogut back is enough to overcome trading RJ and letting Sessions and Villanueva walk. Plus, I love Brandon Jennings. The kid is gonna be huge. Bulls, Pistons, and Pacers are all afterthoughts that won't see .500.

Southwest Division

1. Orlando Magic.
2. Washington Wizards.
3. Atlanta Hawks.
4. Miami Heat.
5. Charlotte Bobcats.

Reasoning / Analysis: I don't think this will be the cakewalk most thing it will be for Orlando. For starters, Rashard Lewis is suspended for the first 10 games for using an illegal supplement. Secondly, I think Washington will be the most improved team in the league. A healthy Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, coupled with stealing Foye and Mike Miller, and DeShawn Stevenson off the bench, with Flip Saunders coaching, they've got sleeper potential. The Hawks are a solid 45-48 win team that can play with anyone. I'm down on the Heat. Something isn't right with this team. I think its in their best interest to blow it up and start over, but Pat Riley won't do it. The Bobcats ... ugh. They really should sign Nathan Scott to play for them; he can't be any worse than half of their roster.

Playoff Teams:

1. Boston Celtics
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Orlando Magic
4. Washington Wizards
5. Atlanta Hawks
6. Toronto Raptors
7. Philadelphia 76ers
8. Milwaukee Bucks
-----------------------
9. Miami Heat
10. Chicago Bulls
11. Detroit Pistons
12. New York Knicks
13. Charlotte Bobcats
14. Indiana Pacers
15. New Jersey Nets

1 Celtics over 8 Bucks 4-1
2 Cavs over 7 76ers 4-1
3 Magic over 6 Raptors 4-1
4 Wizards over 5 Hawks 4-3

1 Celtics over 4 Wizards 4-3
3 Magic over 2 Cavs 4-2

1 Celtics over 3 Magic 4-3

Eastern Conference Champion: Boston Celtics.

Western Conference:

Southwest Division

1. San Antonio Spurs.
2. Dallas Mavericks.
3. New Orleans Hornets.
4. Houston Rockets.
5. Memphis Grizzlies.

Reasoning / Analysis: Its the Spurs division to lose. And if they aren't careful, or can't avoid injuries, they might. The Mavericks and Hornets both improved enough to reach solid 50-52 win status. Then again, in the West, it might take 50 games just to get into the postseason. The Rockets are a tough read. They're well coached, have an outstanding GM, and are positioned well for the long term ... but they won't have Yao this year, and you have to figure they'll move McGrady's expiring contract at the deadline. I have Houston on the outside looking in. The Grizzlies are a mess, are horribly managed, and have arguably the worst owner in pro sports overseeing things. Good luck with that.

Northwest Division

1. Denver Nuggets.
2. Portland Trail Blazers.
3. Utah Jazz.
4. "Kevin Durant's Team".
5. Minnesota Timberwolves.

Reasoning / Analysis: flip a coin. Denver figures to take a step or three back after standing pat this offseason, but I'm always leery of teams the year after their breakthrough season, which the Blazers had last year in getting a top four seed. If both falter, Utah is still good enough to steal this division at 52, 53 wins. I am really high on "Durant's Team", and as for the Timberwolves, well ... if the Knicks are still digging out after just six years of Isiah, how long will it take to dig out of 15 years of Kevin McHale? (A while).

Pacific Division

1. Los Angeles Lakers.
2. Los Angeles Clippers.
3. Phoenix Suns.
4. Golden State Warriors.
5. Sacramento Kings.

Reasoning / Analysis: nobody other than Cleveland has an easier path to a top 3 seed than the Lakers. I have them in the 65 win range, easily winning home court in the West and throughout the playoffs as well. The Clippers are much better, but nowhere near good enough to make a run. The Suns are fading, the Warriors are a disgrace, and the Kings are at least a couple years away from returning to the solid teams they fielded in the first half of this decade.

Playoff Teams:

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. New Orleans Hornets
7. Utah Jazz
8. "Kevin Durant's Team"
--------------------------
9. Los Angeles Clippers
10. Phoenix Suns
11. Houston Rockets
12. Memphis Grizzlies
13. Golden State Warriors
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
15. Sacramento Kings

1 Lakers over 8 "Durant's Team" 4-1
2 Spurs over 7 Jazz 4-3
6 Hornets over 3 Nuggets 4-2
5 Mavericks over 4 Blazers 4-2

1 Lakers over 6 Hornets 4-2
5 Mavericks over 2 Spurs 4-2

1 Lakers over 5 Mavericks 4-3

Western Conference Champion: Los Angeles Lakers

NBA Finals: Celtics over Lakers 4-2

NBA Champion: Boston Celtics.