steve's nba predictions

Two days until the season tips off with a rematch of one of the great game 7s of all time, Cavaliers! Celtics! Only on ... TNT! Season on!!!

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division:

1. Boston Celtics
2. Toronto Raptors
3. Philadelphia 76ers
4. New Jersey Nets
5. New York Knicks

Reasoning: until proven otherwise, the defending champs are the class of this division. I don't think they'll win 66 again ... but 58-24 seems about right, a solid 8-10 games clear of the divisional field. I like this Raptors team a lot, but it all depends on Jermaine O'Neal staying healthy. Picking them 2nd in the 48-50 win range says I think he will. The 76ers are a tough read. Great season last year to break through and get back to the postseason, and they have a solid young nucleus, plus added Elton Brand. I just can't help but think they're still a season away from getting past 44, 45 wins and into top 4 status. The Nets could surprise, there's still some talent there, they could sneak in as the last team in ... but they're far more likely to unload VC and embrace rebuilding full on around Yi, Devin Harris, and (in my opinion) underrated Sean Williams. The Knicks are at least two seasons away from being mediocre.

Central Division:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Detroit Pistons
3. Milwaukee Bucks
4. Chicago Bulls
5. Indiana Pacers

Reasoning: I loved the Mo Williams trade for the Cavs. Adding him, plus the midseason additions last year of Pavlovic, Ben Wallace, and Delonte West, plus a full season of Varejao, should be enough to propel them to 52 wins and the Central title. Detroit changed coaches and not much else. I'll pencil them in for their usual 48-50 wins and top 4 seed. Milwaukee hired a solid coach in Skiles, added a solid presence in Richard Jefferson, and still have Bogut, Villanueva, and Michael Redd on the floor. Someone in the East is getting into the postseason at 38-44, why not the Bucks? I don't like this Bulls team at all, and hated the Del Negro hire. Pacers are in full on rebuild mode, probably a wise decision.

Southeast Division:

1. Orlando Magic
2. Miami Heat
3. Washington Wizards
4. Charlotte Bobcats
5. Atlanta Hawks

Reasoning: does any team, in any division, have an easier path to the division title than Orlando? Holy Lord, they might be the only plus .500 team in the Southeast. I've got them at 55 wins, 15 clear of the divisional field, and top 2 seed in the East. Miami should be better, and I think Beasley (and Jerryd Bayless) will be the two best players from this draft when its all said and done. Washington should have started over. Instead, they'll continue to tread water around .500. If Larry Brown thought the Knicks were poorly run, he'll really see incompetence in Charlotte. Atlanta reverts back to its usual 20 win status.

East Seeding:
1. Boston Celtics
2. Orlando Magic
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Detroit Pistons
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Philadelphia 76ers
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. Miami Heat
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9. Washington Wizards
10. New Jersey Nets
11. Chicago Bulls
12. Indiana Pacers
13. Charlotte Bobcats
14. Atlanta Hawks
15. New York Knicks

East Playoffs:

1 Celtics over 8 Heat, 4-1
2 Magic over 7 Bucks, 4-1
3 Cavaliers over 6 76ers, 4-3
5 Raptors over 4 Pistons, 4-2

1 Celtics over 5 Raptors, 4-3
3 Cavaliers over 2 Magic, 4-2

3 Cavaliers over 1 Celtics, 4-2

Eastern Conference Champions: Cleveland Cavaliers.

Western Conference

Northwest Division:

1. Utah Jazz
2. Portland Trail Blazers
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
5. "Kevin Durant's Team"

Reasoning: Wow, Utah's road to the playoffs figures to be pretty easy too. I have them as the top team in the league, at 62 wins. Portland breaks through and reaches the postseason, but they're still a year of playing together away from really being a force. I have no idea what the Nuggets are building towards, and expect a fire sale by early January. Minnesota is rebuilding. "Durant's team" is rebuilding as well.

Pacific Division:

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Golden State Warriors
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Sacramento Kings

Reasoning: As good as the Lakers were last year after the Gasol deal ... they figure to be only better this year with a healthy Andrew Bynum. I have them at 60 wins, breathing down Utah's neck for home court throughout the postseason. Golden State, I can't explain it, but I like this team's makeup. I think they sneak in as the last team in at 45 wins. Phoenix is beginning to slide. Shaq is done, Nash won't be as effective with Terry Porter calling the shots as he was with D'Antoni, and they're going to miss Marion. The Clippers are treading water, and the Kings are a couple years away from respectability.

Southwest Division:

1. New Orleans Hornets
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Houston Rockets
5. Memphis Grizzlies

Reasoning: the best division in league history? Any of the top four teams can not only win the division, they can win it all. I have all four in the 50-56 win range. I have New Orleans in first because I think Paul is the best point guard in the league, and David West really emerged last year as a force, plus Tyson Chandler is finally living up to his potential. I have the Spurs second because of Popovich, he's much better than Carlisle or Adelman. I have Dallas third because I just trust the roster makeup more than Houston's. The Rockets are the most volatile team in this division, they're the toughest to peg a slot for. The Grizzlies are an afterthought.

West Seeding:

1. Utah Jazz
2. Los Angeles Lakers
3. New Orleans Hornets
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Houston Rockets
7. Portland Trail Blazers
8. Golden State Warriors
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9. Phoenix Suns
10. Denver Nuggets
11. Los Angeles Clippers
12. Sacramento Kings
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
14. Memphis Grizzlies
15. "Kevin Durant's Team"

West Playoffs:

1 Jazz over 8 Warriors, 4-1
2 Lakers over 7 Trail Blazers, 4-2
3 Hornets over 6 Rockets, 4-3
5 Mavericks over 4 Spurs, 4-2

1 Jazz over 5 Mavericks, 4-3
2 Lakers over 3 Hornets, 4-2

2 Lakers over 1 Jazz, 4-2

Western Conference Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

NBA Finals: Lakers over Cavaliers, 4-3

NBA Champions: Los Angeles Lakers.