Like my "Its Time for Herm to Go" post earlier this week ... I can't believe I'm about to write this.
To: Tigers fans.
From: Steve. Hey, that's me!
Subject: Don't Panic. Yet.
Yes, last night was a catastrophe. Last night, you were poised to become THE number one team in America. At worst number two with LSU's woodshed beating. We were gonna have 1 v 2 in Austin next week. Instead, we get 1 v 11.
Don't Panic. Yet.
I predicted in August that MU would win the national championship at 13-1. I felt the game they would lose, would be at Lincoln last week. (Whoops).
I know Mack Brown is 10-0 in the week after the Red River Shootout (sorry, but any true UT or OU fan ... or anyone who's lived down there ... will NEVER call it "red river rivalry". Its "Shootout". Just like any legit MU or KU fan, which most of my readers are, will never call it the border showdown. Its the Border War.) Anyways, my point?
Yeah. MU 41, UT 31 this Saturday.
Look it, Tigers fans, its simple. Win out, and you'll play for the national title.
You're 11th in the current polls. The first BCS standings come out tonight, my guess is you'll be 10th (I think Texas Tech lack of quality opponents will hurt them big time in the initial standings). Here are the 10 teams in front of you:
1. Texas -- you play them this week. I think you will win. And their next 4 after they lose to you? vs 8 Oklahoma State, at 7 Texas Tech, a layup vs Baylor ... and at 16 Kansas. They're losing at least 2 of the next 5 games. And if they don't, (joe biden voice) God love ya, they've earned their championship.
2. Alabama -- plays Ole Miss this week (who already won in the Swamp). Still travels to Tennessee (huge rivalry game), and visits 13 LSU, plus hosts Auburn (talk about rivalry), and would have to beat 10 Georgia again, or 5 Florida, or possibly 23 Vandy, or maybe even a resurgent South Carolina, in the SEC title game. In Atlanta. They'll lose at least once.
3. Penn State -- this is the one team I'd be worried about ... but again, to play for the national title, you only have to be 2nd. They're the only contender that still has a bye week (first week in November). They should pole-axe Michigan this week ... but visit 12 Ohio State in two weeks, and still host 20 Michigan State. They're in the drivers seat at this point to be in the title game.
4. Oklahoma -- just lost to Texas. Host 16 KU this week ... but close at 8 Oklahoma State. But even if OU wins out and wins the South (and I believe they will), if MU wins out, they win the North. So you can beat them, at Arrowhead, the first Saturday in December and eliminate them. The same opportunity you Tigers fans had last year.
5. Florida -- talk about a gauntlet. After a game they should win the Swamp against Kentucky, they go against 10 Georgia in Jacksonville, at 22 Vandy, vs resurgent South Carolina in a game that could determine the SEC East, and close at Florida State, never a gimme. And should they survive it, they likely get the Alabama / LSU winner in the SEC Title Game. Odds are they lose at least one more.
6. USC -- the other team that should worry Tigers fans. The Pac 10 is not good. But the Trojans still visit Arizona, host 25 Cal, and visit the Rose Bowl to play UCLA, where two years ago their national title hopes were destroyed by a 5-6 Bruins team. Still, do you put a one loss USC team whose loss was to Oregon State, ahead of a MU team whose only loss was to Oklahoma State, a far superior team? I say no.
7. Texas Tech -- after playing nobody for five weeks, they took on the Huskers ... and needed overtime to survive. Yikes. After this week's ass kicking against A&M, here's their next 4: at 16 Kansas, vs 1 Texas, vs 8 Oklahoma State, at 4 OU. If you need overtime to beat Nebraska, uuh, you probably aren't going 4-0 in that stretch. And once Tech loses, they will plummet, because again, until now, the best team they've played is Nebraska. Yikes.
8. Oklahoma State -- give them credit. What a huge, program establishing win last night will turn out to be. I remember in 2006, when KU beat South Florida, that I thought that was the moment the Fighting Mangino's arrived. It took another year before the results really showed, but that was the moment I knew we could compete with anyone. Oklahoma State's moment was last night. But there's a difference between "compete" and "defeat", and the remaining schedule is brutal. After a victory against Baylor this week, they visit 1 Texas. After a victory against Iowa State, they visit 7 Texas Tech, visit Colorado, and close at home against 4 OU. They're not going undefeated.
9. BYU -- they have two tough tests left, at received votes but not ranked TCU and at 14 Utah. Even if they win out though, do you really think the BCS is taking a non-BCS conference team to play for the national title? (Nope).
10. Georgia -- their season comes down to the next 3 weeks. If they survive it unbeaten, they'll probably play for the title. vs 22 Vanderbilt, at 13 LSU, vs 5 Florida in Jacksonville. They also visit Kentucky and Auburn, plus host Georgia Tech, but really, the next three weeks are it. Win all 3, and they're in solid shape.
And then there's you, Tigers fan, in 11th. And after this week's daunting task in Austin, you host Colorado, a team KU looked like dog sh*t against yesterday and still covered a 13 point spread anyways. Then you visit Baylor (yawn). Then host the KSU Wildcats (blowout). Then visit Iowa State (you won't need a 20 point comeback like we did). And you close, at Arrowhead, against us.
You win this game in Austin, you still control your own destiny. And if not, well, as I noted last night ... you can bash KU's schedule last year all you want Mizzou fan. But we beat every team we were SUPPOSED to beat. Can you say that this year ...
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