Wednesday, October 1, 2008

the week 5 predictions

"Tonight we drink to youth,
And holding fast to truth,
Don't want to lose what I had as a boy ...
My heart still has a beat,
But love is now a feat,
As common as a cold day in LA ...

Sometimes when I'm alone I wonder,
Is there a spell that I am under?
Keeping me from seeing the real thing?

Love Hurts!
But sometimes its a good hurt,
And it feels like I'm alive ...
Love Sings!
When it transcends the bad things,
Have a heart and try me,
'Cause without love I won't survive ..."

-- Incubus, "Love Hurts" (the single most underrated song of the last decade ... why did they not release this thing as a single?!?! This would have been bigger than "Drive", bigger than "Anna Molly", bigger than "Megalomaniac", this is their greatest triumph ever! What the hell were they thinking holding this one back ...)

Yeah, "Love Hurts". But sometimes, like we witnessed Sunday ... love sings! When it transcends the bad things! Have a heart and try (to root for this team, our team, the CHIEFS!!!) ... 'cause without love (we) won't survive ...

As always, all lines from today's USA Today.
As always, all (NL) count both SU and ATS.

Last Week SU: 10-3-0
Season to Date SU: 35-25-0

Last Week ATS: 9-4-0
Season to Date ATS: 35-24-1

Last Week Upset / Week: Let's go "Inside the Numbers". When I give a team the "Upset of the Week" designation, I am damned sure they're winning the game. Its why I don't keep track of the ATS for this pick. Anyways, I have picked the team I love as the "Upset of the Week" 7 times in the last 5 seasons:

2004 at Ravens: W 27-24
2004 vs Colts: W 45-35
2005 vs broncos: W 31-27
2006 vs Chargers: W 27-24
2006 vs broncos: W 19-10
2007 at Chargers: W 30-16
2008 vs broncos: W 33-19

Season to Date Upset / Week: 1-3-0.
This Week's Upset: read the 7 results above and take a freaking guess.

The Non-Chiefs Prognostications:

* at Texans (+3) 24, Colts 16.
* at Ravens (+2 1/2) 9, Titans 7.
* Chargers (-6 1/2) 41, at Dolphins 14.
* at Eagles 21, Redskins (+6) 20.
* Bears (-3 1/2) 34, at Lions 20.
* at Packers (NL) 21, Falcons 17.
* Seahawks (+7 1/2) 31, at Giants 13.
* Bucs (+3 1/2) 24, at broncos 20.
* Patriots (-3) 13, at 49ers 10.
* Bills (+1) 41, at Cardinals 20.
* at Cowboys (-17 1/2) 41, Bengals 3.
* at Jaguars 14, Steelers (+3 1/2) 13.
* at Saints (-3) 31, Vikings 13.

Bonus College Pick:

At the risk of sounding like the great Wayne Allyn Root ... or "Two Time AFC Coach of the Year!!!" Ron Meyer ... I have had one game circled, highlighted, targeted as my "Upset of the Year" since August.

Saturday, the game I've had earmarked since the summer, goes down.

And it involves my predicted National Champion. Which means their margin for error drops from "decent" to "zip, zero, nada".

It means October 18th goes from "margin for error" to "must win". I am that convinced they're going down Saturday night.

at Nebraska (+10 1/2) 34, Mizzou 30. The KU fan in me prays I'm right. The Husker Backer I grew up as, prays I'm right. The fan in me that loves, freaking loves, the makeup of this team, hopes I'm wrong ...

* The Chiefs Prediction:

Obviously, they're my Upset of the Week.

I'm going to attempt to explain why.

Only three times in the last 11 seasons (counting this one) have the Chiefs reached week 5 as unquestioned contenders. 1997 (3-1, W3), 1998 (3-1, with 4 of the next 6 at home), and 2003 (4-0). Every other year, week 5 has been pivotal to (at least) the next 5-6 weeks of the season:

1999: The Chiefs came home at 2-2 to face an unbeaten Patriots squad. A back and forth affair, came down to an Adam Vinatieri 25 yard field goal in the end zone I used to sit in. Wide left. Chiefs 25, Pats 24. Season. F*cking. On!

2000: The Chiefs came home at 2-2 to face a team they were tied with in the standings, the Seahawks, on Monday Night Football. After "The Ed Hochuli Fan Club" somehow, someway, bribed Ed into overturning an obvious Fauria first down catch, the Chiefs held on for a 24-17 win. Season. F*cking. On!

2001: The Chiefs limped home at 1-3, and promptly fell behind 20-6 entering the 4th quarter. A late rally fell short, and the Chiefs lost 20-17. Season. F*cking. Over.

2002: The Chiefs hit the road at 2-2, facing my favorite NFL player making his debut start. As Dick Enberg famously noted, "Priest Holmes at the 15, with running room! 10! 5! Touchdown! My oh my, Priest Holmes!" 29-25 Chiefs. Season. F*cking. On.

2004: week 5 was a bye. It was ... unquestionably, the single most difficult, depressing week of my, and most of my readers, lives. But given that we were coming off a huge MNF win at Baltimore ... Season. F*cking. On.

2005: The Chiefs host the Redskins after arguably the single most inexusable loss of the Vermeil era, blowing leads of 17-0 and 23-6 and losing to Philly 37-31. A 23-16 beating of the Redskins puts us on the path to 10 wins. Season. F*cking. On.

2006: thank GOD for the bye. Because week 5 was at Arizona. At 1-2, fresh off a shutout win over the awful 49ers ... the Chiefs fell behind 14-0 right away ... before LJ broke a 81 yard screen pass, and the Chiefs won 24-23. Season. F*cking. On.

2007: coming off two solid victories, we hosted Jacksonville. The Jags won 17-7, exposing a lot of flaws that our future opponents took advantage of. However, we followed this loss up with a pole-axing of the Bengals, and a road win at oakland. So ... Season. Undecided.

8 games. One bye, 6 Season F*cking Ons, 1 Season F*cking Over, 1 Season Undecided.

This week, we travel to Carolina. A team that struggles at home. A team that has never beaten us in their facility.

Just like Arizona in 2006.

Just like Baltimore in 2004 (albeit a week earlier).

This is a winnable game. If the Chiefs we saw last week show up ... we win. If they play with passion ... with confidence ... we win this game.

Nobody outside of me (on this site) and Mark (via his insane confidence at tailgating) gave us a chance to win last week.

Since I opened last Sunday (at 4:26am) with a "Friday Night Lights" reference, I close this week with my 2nd favorite scene from the series, from my favorite episode, season 1's "Mud Bowl"

(qb1 matt saracen) (standing on the field)
(julie taylor) (running towards saracen)
(julie taylor) (tackles qb1 in the mud)
(julie taylor) (kisses qb1)
(julie taylor) no matter what happens, the rest of this season, the rest of our lives ... I will always love you for this moment.

I will always, always, love this season for what we saw on Sunday. I believe a lot of other folks will begin to love this season, for what we see this Sunday.

Chiefs (+10) 24, at Panthers 20. Just make sure you have at least one slot open in your text message inbox when I get to send out my favorite text of the season, when our Chiefs seize hope and momentum from the jaws of defeat ...

"Season. F*cking. On!"

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