the week five predictions

"You used to be the best,
You made life be real to me,
And I hope that you're still out there,
And you're like you used to be;

We had ourselves a time,
Danced til the morning sun,
We let the good times come,
We wouldn't stop until they're done,

And we'll be back in
The high life again!
All the doors that closed one time,
Will open up again!

We'll be back in
The high life again!
All the eyes that watched us once,
Will smile and take us in!

And we'll drink and dance,
And with one hand free,
Have the world so easily!
Won't it be a sight to see?
Back in the high life again ..."

-- originally Steve Winwood, but Warren Zevon's version kicks serious ass, "Back in the High Life Again" ...

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Last Week ATS: 5-9-0.
Season to Date ATS: 28-34-0.

Last Week SU: 10-4-0.
Season to Date ATS: 37-25-0.

Last Week Upset / Week: you're welcome, Kellie.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-2.
This Week's Upset / Week: Why fix what ain't broken. (kellie voice) no! oh sweet Jesus no! not again! You're ... you're begging for a loss at this point! (kellie's folks voice) please, we've seen your picks. No! Don't do this! You'll screw our team! (exactly.) broncos (+3 1/2) over Patriots.

The Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* Vikings (-10) 38, at Rams 3.
* Redskins (+4) 17, at Panthers 10.
* at Eagles (-15) 56, Bucs 10.
* at Giants (-15 1/2) 56, raiders 0.
* at Bills 21, Browns (+6) 20.
* at Ravens (-8 1/2) 37, Bengals 3.
* Steelers 24, at Lions (+10) 20.
* at 49ers (-2 1/2) 24, Falcons 21.
* at donkeys (+3 1/2) 24, Patriots 6.
* at Cardinals 24, Texans (+5 1/2) 21.
* at Seahawks (NL) 24, Jaguars 21.
* Colts (-3 1/2) 37, at Titans 14.
* at Dolphins (+1 1/2) 27, Jets 21.

The Chiefs Prediction:

I can't help but flash back four years ago, to the last Chiefs / Cowboys game. What a weekend it was. So much has changed since that awesome, absolutely jaw-dropping incredible weekend in Dallas four years ago. Not much of it for the better.

I truly believed, up until about 9:30am this morning, that the downward spiral would continue, and Dallas would roll in here, and absolutely destroy the Chiefs on Sunday.

And me, Steve, I still feel that way.

But ... you can't fight Gregg's gut feeling.

This is the guy who, the week of the Y2K bowl, when EVERYONE believed the Chiefs would beat oakland to win the division, just kept saying "I have a bad feeling about this game". That bad feeling ... proved to be correct. (And led to one of the ultimate meltdown shopping sprees ever).

This is the guy who, entering the 2003 MNF game in oakland, with EVERYONE, including myself, believing that the raiders would save their season at home, said that "Chiefs win on a goalline stand". Lo and behold, Tim Brown, SHORT of the end zone!

We shared a belief in 2004 that the Chiefs would beat the Ravens in Baltimore at 0-3. Mission accomplished.

He said the same thing in oakland in 2005. Goalline stand to win the game. It happened, when Moss dropped a 4th and goal touchdown pass.

Whenever this team's back has been to the wall, its usually G's advise to heed. Only in 2006 was I right ... for some of the season. I said we'd beat SF and Arizona to put the season effing on. I somehow completely nailed Tynes' FG to beat San Diego, and Page's INT to seal the win versus oakland. (And I can prove this anytime. Or as Damien put it three years ago, "Stop picking close wins! Every f*cking thing you predict comes true!")

But when even I'd given up hope, demanding to drive (ridiculous old school tradition), against Jacksonville to end the season, it was Gregg who originally texted before kickoff "its the nfl don't give up until its over". A text I passed on famously to so many people that it's like a playground legend at this point. Seven hours, a Bengals, Titans, Jaguars, and (somehow) donkeys loss in overtime later, I was dropping "holy f*cking sh*t, we made it! sweet f*cking jesus, we're in!" blasts to my mom on the phone.

My point is this. When Gregg has a feeling ... I don't bet against it. Whatever your gut says ... don't bet against it. Its like "the coin" times ten. Don't doubt it.

As much as I don't think this will happen ... if G thinks we can win this game ... I'll swallow the Kool Aid. (Hopefully laced with vodka).

at Chiefs (+8) 16, Cowboys 14, on a last second Ryan Succup 43 yard field goal. And the sad thing is ... if we win this one, with the Redskins (winnable) and Chargers (winnable) and Jaguars (winnable) and raiders (winnable) up next ... well, you can't bail on this season yet with a win ...