The question on any Bucks fans mind has to be, do the moves made in the last week and a half make the Bucks appreciably better? Remember, this was a 46-36 team last year that took third seeded Atlanta to seven games in the first round. Do the signings, trade, and draftings take the Bucks high enough to deliver an opening round game seven to the Bradley Center?
Certainly, a lot still has to play out before we can slot the Bucks into a projected playoff position. But a few reasonable assumptions can be inferred from these moves ... if you go Inside the Numbers!
First, let's establish a baseline. To get home court advantage, you have to finish top four in the conference. The Celtics were the fourth seed last spring, at 50-32. So, the Bucks have to improve at least four games to reach where the 2009-2010 season gave you home court. That's what the moves of the last week need to do.
Having established said baseline, let's look at the starting lineup from Opening Night 2009, versus the projected starting lineup on Opening Night 2010:
Four things immediately stand out:
1. The Bucks starting lineup was HORRIBLE to open the 2009-2010 season. Three starters averaging exactly 10 Points / Game or less. We even started a guy with a negative PER! How the hell does that happen?!?!
2. The one member of the lineup that was replaced that was worth keeping (Delfino) ... is still on the roster. Given his stat line and historical performance, he is perfectly suited to coming off the bench, playing 16-18 minutes a game, and running the show at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters. For that reason alone (moving a proven bench stud back to the bench), the Maggette deal makes sense.
3. Virtually every stat jumps up in 2010. Field goal percentage is 3 points higher. Free throw percentage is 5 points higher. Rebounds jump nearly a board and a half. Steals are up, and PER is doubled. This all bodes very well for Milwaukee.
4. The biggest stat that jumped out at me though ... is points per game. The Bucks lineup just increased its PPG nearly 4 1/2 points per game, from an average of 12.14 per starter, to 16.46. You say "well, that's a small increase, its no big deal". I counter with ... more stats!
The Bucks LOST 14 games last year that were decided by 4 or fewer points. 14! Out of 82 games played! (That's 17%, for those scoring at home). Or to put it another way, the Bucks lost 36 games last year. 14 of them were by 4 or fewer points. (That's 39% of their losses, decided on the final possession, in essence).
When you lose that many close games, it indicates two things:
1. You're extremely well coached, to consistently be in position to win.
2. You just don't have the talent to get over the top.
Compare Opening Night 2009 to 2010 again. The Bucks now have the horses to get "over the top", so to speak. Look at all those close losses. And then look at the dates of those losses. You'll notice that 11 of the 14 occurred before the Salmons trade on February 17th. After Salmons arrived, a veteran presence used to performing under pressure, the Bucks not only took off in the win column (winning 22 of 29 to close the regular season), but the losses weren't close anymore. You can read two things into that fact. Either (a) there were nights the Bucks just didn't show up (a fair charge) ... and (b) the close losses from November, December, and January, were now close wins. In fact, look at the wins by 5 or fewer points after Salmons arrived on February 17th:
11 close losses pre-Salmons. 10 close wins post-Salmons. And the guy only played 36 games!
(Editors note: after re-reading this, I did another quick check, realizing that I was missing a key piece of data: close wins pre-Salmons. So to fairly compare the two "eras" ... the Bucks were 4-11 in games decided by 4 or less pre-Salmons, and 10-3 in those contests after Salmons was acquired. That bolsters my argument even more!)
The stats don't lie. The Bucks were on the rise before the moves of the last week and a half. Now, any reasonable fan can hope, barring catastrophic injury, to see the Bucks as a legitimate 52-55 win team, right now, in the Eastern Conference. And there's still more moves to be made (resigning Ridnour perhaps?)
Hop on board the bandwagon folks, before its officially a "bandwagon" ...
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