old: 2006 chiefs dolphins picks and recap

sk: the one loss in a string of happiness, sunshine, lollipops and rainbows. Yeah, the recap is weak, but the midseason review / predictions ... I'm telling you, 2006 was a magical season. I'd probably go Sayid in "The Economist" or "He's Our You" at this point to get 2010 to turn out 95% as well. Wow, working a "Lost" reference into a five year old Chiefs game. Who says I don't got skillz ...

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From: stevo.
To: multiple recipients.
Subject: my week ten picks.
Originally Sent: 11/10/06 12:10pm.

My (lengthy) midseason thoughts in the Chiefs pick section! (See, a reason to read to the end. I'm a sneaky bastard like that).

Last Week SU: 8-6-0
Season to Date SU: 79-49-0

Last Week ATS: 7-7-0
Season to Date ATS: 63-63-2

Last Week Upset / Week: Picking the Raiders ... stupid, stupid, stupid. I won't be doing that again. At least as an "Upset of the Week".
Season to Date U / W: 6-3-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: Redskins (+7) over Eagles.

The Non-Chiefs Picks:

at Jaguars 33 (-11 1/2), Texans 7.
at Bengals 28 (+1 1/2), Chargers 27.
at Falcons 20, Browns 14 (+8).
Ravens 24, at Titans 20 (+7).
at Colts 51 (-11 1/2), Bills 3.
Saints 34 (+4), at Steelers 31.
Redskins 26 (+7), at Eagles 20.
Bears 19 (+1), at Giants 10.
Packers 31 (+5), at Vikings 10.
Jets 21 (+10 1/2), at Patriots 13.
49ers 16 (+6), at Lions 14.
at Raiders 13 (+9), bronkeys 10.
at Seahawks 27 (-3 1/2), Rams 20.
Cowboys 41 (-7), at Cardinals 7.
at Panthers 35 (-9 1/2), Bucs 13.

Slight corrections needed:

After reviewing the Chiefs / Rams game, I made two errors in my anti-Criqui / Buerelein rant from Monday.

* First, I said he called Kris Wilson "Kris Jenkins" on his touchdown. I was wrong. He called him "Kris Johnson".

* In addition, Huard stepping up and delivering the TD throw, while avoiding the rush, a rush that Buerelein claims Huard couldn't see, that was Gonzalez' 2nd TD of the day, not his first.

Just setting the record straight there, sorry for the factual inaccuracies. Thankfully, we don't have Criqui / Tasker this week. Unfortunately, the crew we get isn't any better, Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker. Expect more ranting on Monday ...

Chiefs Midseason Thoughts! (and prediction for week 10):

I'm typing this part up late Thursday night, in the comforts of home, with the Foo Fighters' "Miracle" playing on the computer ... and really, what is more fitting, than reflecting on the first half of this season with that song. Because the last six weeks -- hell, the whole season to this point, accurately, can be described as a "Miracle".

"Crazy but I believe this time / Beggin' for sweet relief, a blessin' in disguise ..."

* 5-1 in our last 6 with Damon "Freaking" Huard as a starter. Let that one sink in. A freaking journeyman quarterback, who hadn't started a game in this decade, who had thrown one pass in this century, has stepped in, and won 5 of 6, including 3 straight against winning, playoff caliber teams. Good freaking grief, that's awesome ...

"Dyin' behind these tired eyes / I've been losin' sleep, please come to me tonight ..."

* Home at 0-2 overall, 0-2 in the conference, with two weeks to reflect on p*ssing away the game at denver, with our backs to the wall, the Chiefs come out and blow the 49ers out of the building, 41-0 ...

"Hands on a Miracle! / I've got my Hands on a Miracle! / 'Lieve it or not, Hands on a Miracle! / And there ain't no way, that you take it away ..."

* After allowing a Leinert bomb on the first series, then turning the ball over and allowing another easy Cardinals touchdown, the Chiefs trailed 14-0 barely 6 minutes into the game. 52 minutes later, LJ takes a simple screen pass, scrambles 78 yards, Tynes gives the Chiefs the lead, and Mr. Reliable, Neil Rackers, whiffs from 51 to get the Chiefs back to .500 ...

"Everything that we've survived / It's gonna be alright, just lucky we're alive ..."

* Coming off arguably the worst loss of the decade, an absolute woodshed beating at Pittsburgh, the Chiefs battle to a 27-27 tie with (what I think is) the best team in football. 32 seconds left, 1st and 10 at our own 18. Three Huard passes and one bogus false start call later, Tynes is good from 53 on the final play from scrimmage, giving us a huge conference and divisional game ...

"Got no vision, I've been blind / Searchin' everywhere, you're right here in my sights ..."

* Not one, but two defensive stands in the final three minutes against the defending NFC Champions, to propel us into the wildcard picture ...

"Hands on a Miracle! / I've got my Hands on a Miracle! / 'Lieve it or not, Hands on a Miracle! / And there ain't no way, that you take it away ..."

* And a win, on the road, against a playoff-caliber cross state rival, in a game we never trailed in!

"Hands on a Miracle! / I've got my Hands on a Miracle! / 'Lieve it or not, Hands on a Miracle! / I got my Hands on a Miracle! / And there ain't no way, that you take it away ... Take it away ... "

And now, what else can you say, other than bring on "Snowflake"! We don't need Ace Ventura to find us a win in this one (hopefully)!

* Steve's First Half MVP: (tie). Larry Johnson, Dustin Colquitt. LJ has been himself lately, averaging 155 yds and 2 TDs in our last 3 games. Dusty Colquitt has been nothing short of spectacular, averaging 46 yards / punt and forcing 2 turnovers already with his funky style of punt.

* Steve's First Half MV(I)P: Trent Green. The (I) stands for injured (no sh*t). I firmly believe the reason Damon Huard looks as solid as he does is because Green only gives a crap about one thing: the ring. As a result, he's pumping Huard full of every ounce of knowledge he has. And its paid off! Its also why I don't believe we'll have a quarterback controversy. Green wants a championship. He'll defer in the interest of the team to Huard until the time comes to go back to him.

(Also, something I always like to point out ... as great as Tom Brady and the Patriots' run has been, Bledsoe won the 2001 AFC Title game at Pittsburgh to set up the dynasty. Green's time will come. And like Bledsoe before him, he'll be ready).

* Steve's First Half MVC: Herm Edwards. Anyone still questioning why we traded a fourth rounder for this guy? Sunday, at St Louis, you saw Herm at his finest. No excuses, no quit, just fight until you win. Good freaking God, I love that guy.

* Steve's First Half Biggest Play: LJ's 78 yard screen pass at Arizona. Let's just be honest here, if we lose that game, season over. Tied at 20, almost 2 minute warning, LJ put that team on his back, carried it as far as the cheap shotting Cardinals would let him, and then let Lawrence Tynes do his thing, to allow me to text message about 100 people with the three simple words "season f*cking on!"

* Steve's First Half Second Biggest Play: Huard's play action bomb to Samie Parker at St Louis. Chiefs up 7-3, early 2nd quarter. We'd just recovered Bulger's fumble. First play from scrimmage, we go for the jugular. Parker catches it, goes out of bounds at the 3. Next play, Gonzalez TD, and the Rams never came closer than 7 the rest of the day.

* Steve's Favorite Moment from the First Half: The 4th down stop to beat Seattle. The fanbase rocked that stadium to its freaking foundation. The beauty of that play was not only the noise level, which was 1995-esque, it was that nobody left early. The last couple years, you put our defense on the field, needing to hold a lead, the joint empties, because we all know what's coming. Not anymore. We believe Gun. We believe. (Or at least I do).

* Steve's Second Favorite Moment from the First Half: Ida McBeth's performance of the National Anthem on Opening Day. (link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04LMcqbcwgo). Ms. McBeth (and the Rev. Hal Weeks) have delivered many memorable rendetions of the Anthem over the years, but this was by far and away her finest hour. I get chills listening to and watching this clip. Just awesome stuff. Amazing stuff.

And yes, it will be on the Chiefs cd that's getting put together for the Raiders tailgate ...

* Steve's Favorite Development from the First Half: (no contest). The expansion of our main tailgating group! We're 2-0 since Ben, Dusty, Laura, Scott, (insert person here) joined us. Don't even think about jumping ship now! Plus, the expansion means I'm no longer the only person guaranteed to be visibly intoxicated by 10am! (Ooh, and on an even happier note, Jason's wife isn't showing up anymore since y'all arrived!!! Hooray collective win for the group!!!)

* Steve's Only Real Complaint from the First Half: the revamped beer stand in section 132. First, they took away almost everything they had on tap, and went to bottles. And they jacked up the price. And they're actually enforcing the two per person limit now. But I can tolerate all that. What is inexcusable is that Christine, the vendor lady who always gave me the big ass Boulevard for the small Bud Light price, is no longer working there. Dammit. Six years of free beer, gone. Tragic. (steve sobbing ...)

* Prediction: Last year's game at Miami was bigger, on shorter rest (moved up due to a hurricane), and against a better Dolphins team. Believe in these guys. All we've asked for the last few years is a Super Bowl contender. With a win on Sunday, well, dare we dream that maybe, just maybe, we've got one? The Chiefs move (linkin park voice) "One Step Closer" to the edge (and I'm about to break!) of a playoff berth, a division title, and a shot at a championship. Chiefs 34 (-1), at Dolphins 20.

Next week: let me get this straight. We get to host the Raiders and broncos, our two most hated rivals, in the same week? With the latter in prime time, and with first place probably on the line? (cartman voice) sweet ...

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From: stevo.
To: multiple recipients.
Subject: chiefs lose. my thoughts.
Originally Sent: 11/13/06 9:51am.

1999: Chiefs 5-3. lose at Indy 28-23.
2000: Chiefs 5-3. lose at Oakland 49-38.
2005: Chiefs 5-3. lose at Buffalo 13-3.
2006: Chiefs 5-3. lose at Miami 13-10.

I see a pattern here ...

I'm not going to waste my time looking back at that pathetic effort yesterday. We should have lost by 30. The fact that we had the ball with a shot to win on our final possession indicates (a) our defense is back to decent levels of production again, and (b) Mike Mularkey is that bad of an offensive coordinator. Or some combination of (a) and (b).

Nope, let's move on. We're tied for the final AFC playoff spot with the Jaguars and the Jets. Last year at this point, we were two out of a playoff berth, and we still had 6 games left against playoff contenders (4 of whom made it in, the other 2 (Dal, SD) finished 9-7). Of the teams we're tied with this year for that final spot, the Jaguars have 4 ridiculously tough games left (vs NYG, vs Ind, vs NE, at KC), and the Jets have 3 games they can easily lose (vs Chi, at GB, at Min). In addition, both Jacksonville and New York still have to go to Miami, which as we saw yesterday, is not a layup.

I figure the playoff math is this: if we win out at home (vs Oak / vs den / vs Bal / vs Jax), and split with Oakland and Cleveland on the road, I'm 80% sure we'll get in at 10-6. If we win out at home, and sweep the two "bad" teams we have left on the road, I am 100% sure we get in at 11-5. (Yes, I am writing off at San Diego as a loss.)

But, no matter what, in order to make the playoffs, I think we have to win out at home. Especially these next two, we have to sweep this homestand. If for no other reason than to help me hold onto whatever little bit of sanity I have left.

And it all begins Sunday, against the hated Raiders.

First, realize it won't be easy on Sunday. Yes, the Raiders have been awful for three years and counting, winning 4 in 2003, 4 in 2004, and 5 last year, while racing out to a 2-7 start this year. And yes, we have beaten them 6 straight times. But ... all 6 being decided on the final play, or damned close to it:

2003: goalline stand at Oakland, 17-10 win. Brown tackled at the 1/2 yard line as time expires.
2003: Anderson FG with 9 seconds left, 27-24 win.
2004: Kennison 73 yd TD with 2:04 left, 34-27 win.
2004: Tynes FG as time expired, 31-30 win.
2005: goalline stand at Oakland, 23-17 win. Moss drops 4th down TD pass with 1:12 to go.
2005: Johnson TD as time expired, 27-23 win.

Secondly, while the Raiders offense is just awful, their defense is pretty damned good. They absolutely battered plummer yesterday, beating him like a government mule while forcing 3 INTs (should have been 4, the refs blew a late one) and 2 fumbles. And they did it without blitzing much either. So, we can realistically expect, given our OL issues, a similar defensive gameplan to what we saw yesterday.

Third, you now have a full on quarterback decision to make. Green will probably be cleared to play this week. If he is, who do you start? And whoever does start, how the hell do you protect them with 3/5 of our offensive line inactive? If it were my decision to make, I'd start Green, if he's medically cleared to play. Of course, I also would have used Dunn or Wilson as a 6th OL yesterday, kept them in to block the weak side on every down. But that would have made far too much sense to employ in the gameplan.

Fourth, the injury factor. Seriously, how many more guys are we going to lose here? 4 defensive starters inactive yesterday. 3 offensive linemen inactive. We've already lost our FB for the year, we haven't had our starting QB in three months, and now our best receiver is hurt. This issue alone ensures Oakland won't be a layup, and that (once again) its up to us in the crowd to help will this team to victory.

Look, one loss doesn't cripple the season. (Well, unless it ends the season, then I suppose it does). So put Miami behind us. And look at the big picture here. If we win these two at home, we get to 3-1 in the division, we get to 7-4 overall, and we'll be favored to win 4 of our last 5. If you'd told me, or ANY of us, leaving the Bengals game that we could be 7-4 going to Cleveland, I would have checked your blood alcohol level to see if it was as high as mine was. Nobody thought we'd be in this spot. And yet, here we are. We control our own destiny for the playoffs. And by winning at home, we continue to control our own destiny.

So, show up Sunday. Be loud. For God's sake, its Oakland. How can you not get fired up to beat those people? I mean, we're talking about hated, bitter rivals here. We're talking about a team whose fan base is composed of street thugs and vile criminals. We're talking about a team whose owner wears jump suits and pearly glasses. "The Art Shell Face". "The Black Hole". Really, what is there to like about these guys? I'll leave off today's commentary with a classic Chiefs / Raiders moment, and if this doesn't motivate you to show up and do your part as a fan, then really, why are you a fan of this team?

(al) ball at the 32 yard line. 10 seconds left in the game, Oakland up by 5.
(frank) grbac's gonna have to hurry to get this off!
(dan) yeah, and we're gonna see a four man rush here.
(al) trips right ... grbac looking left, grbac going into the end zone and it is caught for the touchdown!
(frank) holy ... beautifully thrown ball for the touchdown!
(al) andre rison!
(frank) what a game for rison, and there are no flags!
(al) incredible!
(dan) (openly rooting for kc in the booth) and for all of you that are believers that the prevent defense only prevents you from winning, there is a textbook example!
(al) whew!
(dan) what a bitter, bitter ...
(frank) (depressed) oh.
(dan) ... play for the Kansas City Chiefs to put on the Raiders!!!!
(frank) this house is stunned!
(dan) whoa!

Oh, ok, what the hell, one more:

(marv albert) hostetler ... Intercepted! Picked off by Hasty! James Hasty with Hostetler back! Hasty going ... no ... no, he's in! He's in for the touchdown! The Chiefs have won in overtime!

And because I've got the cd on right now anyways ...

(raiders radio dude) they're going for the touchdown? Man! Is he going for it! They're not kicking the field goal!
(2nd raiders radio dude) its a gutsy call! If they get it, he's a genius, if not ...
(raiders radio dude) he can start packing.
(mitch holthus) richardson the fullback ... handoff Johnson ... he dives ... Touchdown! Kan-sas City Chiefs! Touchdown! Larry Johnson!

The stretch drive starts Sunday. The road to the Super Bowl begins for real on Sunday. And we're still right in the thick of things. Which should make this one of, if not the, funnest weeks of the football season. Oakland and (insert string of obsenities here) denver. In the same week. I'm ready ...