sk: another "steve nailed it" pick in the predictions ... and amazingly, a rare "steve nailed it" recap in dissecting the idiocy of the oakland raiders. (to voice) i love me some me! enjoy.
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From: stevo.
To: multiple recipients.
Subject: my week eleven predictions.
Originally Sent: 11/17/06 10:47am
(from "Apollo 13")
nasa dude #1: the heat shield, the parachutes ... really, who knows what else is going to go wrong?
nasa dude #2: I know, alright? I know. This is going to be the darkest day in NASA history.
gene kranz: with all due respect, sir, I believe this is going to be our finest hour.
Last Week SU: 9-7
Season to Date SU: 88-56-0
Last Week ATS: 9-7
Season to Date ATS: 72-70-2
Last Week Upset / Week: loser. Let me get this straight: I take the Jets, Bears, Packers, and 49ers to win outright, on the road no less, and all do ... but I pick the Redskins as my Upset of the Week. Stupid, stupid, stupid ... (steve banging head on coffee table) stupid ...
Season to Date U / W: 6-4-0
This Week's Upset / Week: Packers (+6) over Patriots.
The Non-Chiefs Picks:
at Cowboys 31 (+1), Colts 24.
at Saints 41 (-3 1/2), Bengals 20.
Steelers 16 (-3 1/2), at Browns 10.
at Eagles 38 (-13), Titans 10.
Falcons 27 (+4), at Ravens 17.
at Panthers 24, Rams 20 (+6 1/2)
Bills 19 (+2 1/2), at Texans 16.
at Packers 30 (+6), Patriots 21.
Redskins 3 (+3), at Bucs 2.
at Jets 27 (+7), Bears 20.
at Dolphins 14 (-3 1/2), Vikings 3.
Lions 6 (+2 1/2), at Cardinals 3.
at 49ers 26 (+6 1/2), Seahawks 20.
Chargers 38 (+2 1/2), at broncos 13.
Giants 20 (+3 1/2), at Jaguars 10.
The Chiefs Pick (and some words of motivation as we prepare to face the "Pride and Poise Boys" ...):
The Chiefs sit 5-4. They control their own playoff destiny. And we're hosting our two most hated rivals over the next six days.
For your words of motivation, scroll down ...
keep going ...
a little bit farther ...
just a little bit more ...
keep going, if you've come this far ...
What, are you f*cking kidding me?!?! Its the raiders! Its the broncos! If you need help getting fired up to root against either squad, you aren't a Chiefs fan! oakland! denver! Trent Green's return! Arrowhead Nation in prime time! This is going to be our finest hour! Injuries? What injuries! We know the odds against a sweep on this homestand. But odds are just that, odds! They aren't facts! So let's get it done!
Surtain INT with :13 left in my end zone seals this one. at Chiefs 20, raiders 13 (+9), in a game that will be far closer than it has any right to be.
Next week: I attempt to explain my hatred of the denver broncos. If you're easily offended by foul language, you'll probably just want to hit delete ...
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From: stevo.
To: multiple recipients.
Subject: chiefs win! denver next! my thoughts!
Originally Sent: 11/20/06 11:05am.
If I use enough "!!!!!"'s, people might read to the end!!!! Or at least print it out, take it with them to the "second office", and have a "valuable backup" in case the toilet paper runs out ...
This will probably get lengthy, as I attempt to explain why the Raiders are the worst coached team in football. Actual play by play analysis as the final Chiefs drive unfolds. What a concept! Quick, somebody get CBS on the phone so that way Don Criqui and Steve Buerelein can get a quick lesson in "Basic Broadcasting 101"!
* This goes to a "limited" distribution list, mainly because we have Lotus Notes here at work, and they don't have that neat auto-fill-in-the-address thingy that Outlook does, and I'm too hung over to type everyone's address. So feel free to send this on to whoever is a Chiefs fan, or has nothing better to do than read the ramblings of a crazy dude. Or send it on to any raiders fan, for that matter, assuming they aren't all being deported back across the Rio Grande or returned to county lockup after their weekend parole this morning ...
* before I get to the Chiefs game, a little side moment here. And I direct this at overconfident, combine driving, overall wearing, cousin-f*cking, inbred, illiterate, drunken idiot wildcats fans. Talent gap?!?! Talent gap?!?! What f*cking talent gap between KU and ksu! f*ck you ksu! and your drunken f*cking idiot fans who don't know what the f*ck "low clearance" means. Seriously, how f*cking retarded have you got to be to, I don't know, ride on top of a f*cking bus for an hour and a half, drinking like me at a brewery, in freezing cold weather, and then not duck when you see a low bridge? What a bunch of f*cking idiots! Just like the team that dead wildcat rooted for!
(ku student section chant voice) Beat the ti-gers! Beat the ti-gers! f*ck mi-ssou-ri! f*ck mi-ssou-ri!
* Two *'s in, and already 10 f bombs. Even by my standards, that only means one thing. Yup, its denver week!
* I have been informed that I am no longer allowed to make predictions on the Chiefs game, unless it involves the Chiefs winning in a blowout. Which is ridiculous; just because I accurately predict a last second FG win over the Chargers, and a last second INT to seal the win over the raiders, you'd think I knew what I was talking about or something. :)
* so I show up at the bus, around 8:20, to head down and save spots, and who knew it, but a Bloody Mary, sitting ready for me! Sweet! I'm loved! By someone other than my mommy! Ooh, and they said they made it "Steve style"! I have no clue what the f*ck that means, but judging by the odor and the taste, I'd say it involves a sh*tload of vodka.
* This just in: I hate raiders fans. I mean, I hate denver fans too, don't get me wrong. And I'm sure I'll have a lot of, uuh, "pleasantries" to say about them (and to them) this week. But nobody is more retarded than a raiders fan. At least (most) denver fans have a working knowledge of the sport their team plays.
* apparently, the players entrance was shut down yesterday. So no "I Hate You Fred / F*ck Off!" moment for 2006. Unless we host oakland in the playoffs. And the odds of that happening are about the same as the odds of anyone other than me or Priest sleeping in my bed tonight: slim and none, and none's a 25 point favorite.
* I continue to stand by my statement that flyovers are the single biggest waste of money known to man. Other than adult entertainment establishments, of course. But in both cases, you usually don't get much for the big money you throw away.
* The Bears won yesterday. And if the Giants win tonight (and we all hope they do), then the Chiefs are one clear of the field for the final wildcard slot, with 6 to go, and 3 of our 4 toughest games left at home. I like those odds.
* Special Inside Study: Why the Raiders are the worst coached team I've ever seen:
OK, I'm admitting right off the bat that I was drinking yesterday. Shocking, I know. But, and Ben and Laura can back me up on this, because despite my alcohol intake, despite the cold, despite me being, well, me ... I was able to predict the exact play oakland would run 95% of the time. I have never seen an offense as predictable as theirs was yesterday, and that includes my Madden / NCAA offenses, which makes Tom Osborne's old Nebraska offenses look innovative and visionary.
Seriously, it was beyond description how elementary their offense is. Every time they sent Anderson in motion, they ran to the motion side. Every time they sent the FB in motion, they play faked to that side. Every time they sent a wide receiver in motion, they ran a quick slant. Just so easy to diagnose. Which probably explains why they didn't cross our 30 in the second half until their final drive, and why they haven't topped 24 points yet this season.
And all that Brooks' final interception proved (more on that below) is that, once again, Marty is right. All you have to do against oakland is stick around, be patient, and wait for them to lose. Because they will every time.
But what really threw me was the Raiders defense on our final scoring drive. A textbook in how NOT to coach defense. Consider:
First, the 4th and 1. Again, opposite side of the field from me, and I haven't watched the game yet, but it appeared Johnson was stuffed from my angle. If he got the first down, it wasn't by much. Yet the raiders make sure their effort doesn't matter, as they get nailed for a 15 yard face mask, the personal foul, "no doubt about it, they f*cking cheated" kind. On a play that, it appeared, they had held on. If you've got 3 defenders on Johnson, bringing him down ... why are you grabbing and yanking the face mask? Just an appalling lack of basic fundamentals.
Flash forward 3 plays, to 3rd and 10, a little less than 3 minutes to go, Chiefs at midfield. Kennison wide right, Parker wide left. Obvious passing situation, given the Chiefs are down 3, need 10 yards, and time is winding down. What do the Raiders call? A 4-4 defense, man on the corners, one safety deep. What? That's a defense you call in an obvious running situation, or a very short yardage passing spot. Let's give Green some credit on the throw, he put it where, in theory, only Kennison could get it. (And he did). But let's go back to this. Man on the corners in that spot is fine. Questionable, but fine, if you have adequate safety help. But a cover one? The safety in that spot is forced to choose who to support ... and he went to double Parker, which left Asamanga one-on-one with Kennison. If you'd had the second safety there on that play, he comes in, and drills Kennison as he tries to make the catch (remember, Kennison bobbled it at first), likely resulting in an incompletion and a huge 4th down decision. Instead, because of the atrocious defense called, its a first down.
Ditto the next first down. 3rd and 8 at the raiders 22, 2:09 to play. Another OBVIOUS passing situation. The raiders go to a 5-2! They ran a 5-2 defense! On 3rd and 8! They did have 4 DBs in, but because we split Wilson wide right, they once again had to go man on the corners, and only one safety deep to help. Then, to add to the incompetence, Solari called arguably his best play so far this season there, sending Wilson in motion to the left, with his DB (in man coverage) moving with him ... which left Parker one-on-one on the right side of the formation, with NO safety help because the safety naturally went to where the bunch receiver set was. One receiver, one defender, on half the field. First down. Every time. Even with Samie "Hands of Steve" Parker being the wide reciever the ball was thrown to.
Then, it gets even more wacky. And understand, I'm not trying to "pile on" here. Well, ok, I kind of am. But I actually think Rob Ryan is a damned good defensive coordinator. Its just that his calls down the stretch were baffling. To me, anyways.
1st and goal Chiefs, at the raiders 9, 2 minute warning. And now, finally the raiders employ some safety help, a cover 3. What? Huh? A cover 3 on goal to go?!?! What the f*ck?!?! You call the cover 3 on EITHER of the previous 3rd downs, and you're not in goal to go! Goal to go, THAT'S when you haul out the 4-4 or the 5-2! The result? Obvious. Turley reports tackle eligible, we line up with essentially 8 linemen (against 6 in the box), and Johnson rumbles untouched to the goalline, where he'd score on the next play.
I know its the raiders, and I know that competence, quality, and sense aren't something they're often accused of having, but compare yesterday to what we'll see Thursday night. (which is why I am nervous ...) I guarantee you Larry Coyer won't be calling any 4-4's on 3rd and long. And I guarantee you the broncos won't be yanking LJ to the ground by the face mask on 4th and 1 with the game on the line.
We faced a poorly coached squad yesterday, and barely won. We face arguably the best coached team in football on Thursday. Fans, Chiefs lovers, you gotta show up and make your mark. You gotta be loud, you gotta rattle jake plummer, and you gotta be there when, late in the game, its 4th down denver, and we need a stop. The Chiefs could be "off" yesterday and still win (which we did). If any facet of the game is "off" on Thursday, we're in deep deep trouble.
* sadly, though, the Raiders weren't the only brain-challenged coordinating staff yesterday.
Mr. Solari. Mikey. Buddy. Pal. I get that you felt you had to ride Johnson in order to win. I'm fine with it. Really, I am. Nobody loves smash mouth football more than me. Line it up, 8 on the line, and shove it down the defenders throat like ... well, like shove it down their throat like you're an actor on channel 595. But buddy, pal, comrade, gringo ... If Trent Green is healthy enough to be on the field, he's healthy enough to run the ENTIRE play book! Especially when, as I diagnosed above, the raiders were daring you to throw all day! All day long, they were going to a 4-4 base formation. Begging us to throw! The pass was there all ... day ... long! Al Saunders would have carved oakland up for 500 yards and 40 points yesterday. Its what good coordinators do: they find the weakness in their opponent and destroy them with it.
Mr. Solari, you, sir, are anything but a good coordinator, based on your pathetic efforts of the last two weeks. Its obvious to me, at least, that Solari enters the game with at least a semi-solid plan in place. But he has no idea how to adapt to what the opposition throws at him. None. After our first drive (a touchdown) yesterday, is when the Raiders shifted to the 4-4. We didn't get another first down in the first half. Until Mike Solari understands that defenses adapt to him, so he'd better start adapting too, this offense is going to continue to break down for long stretches of the game.
Against oakland, you can get away with it. Against denver ... well, let's just say, we can't afford to go 20 some odd minutes without a point or a first down.
* and I'm not sparing Gunther either. The defense on the raiders final drive was absolutely atrocious. Totally unacceptable.
The raiders take over at their own 25, with about 1:30 to go and all 3 timeouts. And we defend the sidelines, leaving the middle of the field wide, wide open.
What the f*ck? If the raiders have all 3 timeouts, what the f*ck do they have to go to the sidelines for? They can go anywhere on the g*dd*mned field they want to go, because they can stop the clock whenever they want to stop it! Which is exactly what they did! Dammit, I'm still screaming mad about this, and its been 20 some odd hours since the game ended!
To Gunther's credit, he had a great fake blitz called on the raiders' final play from scrimmage, dropping all 3 linebackers back into coverage, confusing Brooks, and leading to the Page INT. From my angle, which granted was clear across the field, Brooks panicked; it appeared he had a lane to step up and run into the end zone through. So credit the Chiefs D for at least confusing him, and for stepping up in the end.
But the 6 defensive calls preceding that one were 5 of the worst in Gunther's career. the one yard loss by Walter was a solid call, cover 3, nobody open, Walter scrambles to the sideline and runs out to stop the clock. That play was well defended and called, but the other 5 were wretched. Again, you can get away with bad play calling against the raiders. You can't against denver.
* OK, time to move on. The Raiders game is behind us. It wasn't easy, it wasn't pretty, but its a win. And in the National ... Football League, you take a win however you can get one. Now, it gets tough.
With a win on Thursday, the Chiefs move to 7-4. They tie denver overall, and move ahead of them in the standings due to better divisional record. Last night was huge for us. Huge. We needed San Diego to win that game, badly. The odds are, San Diego won the division last night. They're one up on denver, 2 up on us, with 6 to go. But they still have a tough, tough 4 game stretch in December (at Buf, vs den, vs KC, at Sea). All four of those either in "who the f*ck knows how much snow will fall" conditions, or against teams currently "in" the playoffs. I think the Chargers are the best team in the NFL. (And you can imagine my shock, surprise, and general disbelief when someone agreed with me when I said that yesterday. That means either I'm not as nuts as I think I am, or Damien is f*cking nuts too. I'm hoping its the former, not the latter ...) But anyways, my point is, the Chargers are good, but are they beatable? We'll know soon enough.
denver, on the other hand, is VERY beatable. What about this team scares anyone, other than their rock solid coaching staff? Their offensive line is just as beat up as ours. Their entire passing game right now is "air it out to javon walker and pray he draws the flag / makes a miraculous grab". And their defense can't stop the run. This is a very winnable game.
(ABC Countdown to Michigan / Ohio State voice) 3 days. 8 hours. 55 minutes. 20 some odds seconds. Chiefs! broncos! Come on out! Ditch the family! Who would you rather spend Thanksgiving with: your family and not-so-loved ones, or Steve and his crazy tailgating friends? Where would you rather watch the game, live and in person, or on your couch listening to Bryant Gumble and Cris Collinsworth"less"? Yeah. Thought so. See ya there.
Bring on denver!
Coming tomorrow: my week 12 predictions, and a special Chiefs section, in which I attempt to put into words exactly why I hate the denver broncos. I have no idea how I'm going to live up to the hype I've given this thing, but anytime I'm writing based on pure emotion, based on sheer hate, rage, and a broken, bitter heart from my 21st birthday that those f*ckers ruined, it'll be entertaining.
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