Some random thoughts and predictions floating around in my head as the month of September (mercifully) draws to a close …
* My MLB playoff predictions, and I am beyond geeked for this postseason, especially the National League:
Rangers over Rays in five
Yankees over Tigers in five
Brewers over Diamondbacks in three
Cardinals shock the world, upend the Phillies in four
Yankees over Rangers in six
Brewers over Cardinals in six
Brewers over Yankees in five
World Champs: Milwaukee Brewers.
* Fall TV: I am way behind on my television viewing, thanks to baseball drawing me in the last week and a half. But one show I had high hopes for that delivered big time … was (of all things) “Hart of Dixie”. Now, in the interest of full disclosure: (a) you will never find a bigger fan of “The OC” than me, and (b) I’d watch Rachel Bilson in anything, no matter how awful it looks. This show … well, see (b). That was my thought entering this, “endure the 42 some odd minutes and then dismiss it”.
Only … its actually a pretty decent show. My only complaint – they gotta get Nancy Travis back full time (she’s contractually obligated to Tim Allen’s new show). Since Allen’s show hasn’t gotten a single positive review, and hopefully will be (wyclef voice) gone by November, hopefully this happens.
The premise of the show is absolutely ridiculous … and I’d expect nothing less from the CW. Rachel Bilson (who played Summer on “The OC”) plays Zoey Hart, a (stunner) heart doctor who inherits an elderly Southern doctor’s medical practice. So she goes to Alabama to check things out … and hates it. Save for two people – Nancy Travis’* nurse (the best character by far in the pilot), and Scott Porter (who played Jason Street on “Friday Night Lights”, one of my five favorite shows of all time), who plays George Foster, the dude who is pretty much the only friendly person in town.
By the end of the pilot, Hart decides to not sell her share of the practice to the (predictably) anti-Yankee doctor who owns the other half, and decides to stick around. As will I.
(*: again, in the interest of full disclosure, I would watch Nancy Travis in anything. She was awesome in “Greedy”, one of my four favorite movies of all time. I need to do a “review” of that thing, it’s entertaining as hell. She also starred in one of the most underrated sitcoms ever, “Almost Perfect”, which ran in the mid 1990s. What can I say, I like obscure sh*t.)
Now, given the fact that most every year, my favorite new show of the season is gone by May, probably is the kiss of death. Consider the last eight years …
2010: my favorite new show last year was “Better With You”. Cancelled after a full season.
2009: my favorite new show was “Flash Forward”. Essentially cancelled at midseason.
2008: my favorite new show a summer debut, “Swingtown”. Cancelled after thirteen episodes, godd*mned religious conservative protests.
2007: my favorite new show was (pathetically) the rebirth of “Paradise Hotel”. (gregg voice) damn skippy! Sadly cancelled after one last epic run. (Also good to know that four years after the original, Zack was still the most annoying f*ck in reality television. (gregg voice) damn skippy!)
2006: my favorite new show was “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip”. One of the best pilot episodes ever. Unfortunately, the series collapsed after that. Cancelled at midseason.
2005: I freaking loved “Commander in Chief”. Gone in April. Honorable mention to the late, great, one-seasoner “Invasion”, one of the most impressively written shows I’ve ever watched. (brett voice) damn skippy!
2004: Gee, let me see … “Lost”! Hey, finally a winner!
2003: Gee, let me see … “The OC”! Hey, another winner!
My way of saying … take the endorsement of “Hart of Dixie” with a huge grain of salt. I intend to get caught up on “New Girl” this weekend, because Zooey Deschanel is another actress I’d watch in anything. (If you haven’t seen “500 Days of Summer”, sprint to your closest Redbox machine or hastily change your browser to Netflix and spend the next 90 minutes watching the best movie of the last three years. It’s ok, I’ll forgive you going off-site.)
* More TV stuff: glad to see “How to Make It in America” is back, starting Sunday night (9:30 CT, HBO). Very underrated comedy. And yes, I am fully aware the primary star (Bryan Greenberg) is a “One Tree Hill” veteran. (Why the hell do you think I gave it a chance last summer?) Give it a chance if you have HBO, you won’t regret it. (Season one only had eight episodes, most of which are on Youtube!, so you can easily get caught up if you, like most of America, missed season one last summer.)
* More TV stuff: liked Ashton Kutcher as Walden Schmidt on “Two and a Half Men”. But I don’t see how they milk more than this final season out of the show. Hate to say it, but that show was Charlie Sheen … excuse me, Charlie Harper. I’ll still tune in every Monday for as long as they keep putting out new material, but man, I had flashbacks the last couple Mondays to the first couple episodes of my favorite show ever (“NYPD Blue”, for the clueless amongst the readership) after Jimmy Smits left in season six. And incredibly, as much as I hated, and I mean HATED*, Rick Schroder’s Danny Sorenson … season seven of “Blue” is my favorite season of my favorite show. Just goes to show you.
(*: most episodes of the Rick Schroder era consisted of me on the back deck, enjoying a cigar, and screaming at the crap on my television so loudly that "The Voice of Reason" could hear me even with the pane glass door closed and bolted. Let’s just say, when Bochco wrote him out in one of the cruelest ways imaginable, I was cheering very, very loudly.)
* One final TV thought: I know most of you who read this site do not share my political views, and that’s cool. But if you want a good laugh every night after a long day at work, you have GOT to watch Reverend Al’s show on MSNBC. I now time my leaving work, so that I reach the car at about 4:59, and immediately tune the satellite radio onto MSNBC so that I can listen to Reverend Al driving home. The man is comedic gold. Even if you disagree with every single thing about the progressive agenda (and how you can disagree with the social part of it, save for abortion (yes, I am the extremely rarest of rare democrats: I am anti-choice), I have absolutely no freaking idea), but even if you make Barry Goldwater look liberal, you will laugh your ass off at Reverend Al trying to pass himself off as a credible journalist. The man can’t speak coherently. Even his guests (and Reverend Al, in nearly two months on the job, has yet to have a Republican on his show), even his guests have to ask him to repeat himself at least three times a night. Its funny stuff. Speaking of politics (and it’s about to get very political for a couple pages …)
* Why is everyone so damned desperate to nominate a Republican front-runner? Anyone remember September 2007? Specifically, three months out from the Iowa caucuses, would ANYONE have bet that:
a. Hillary Clinton would NOT be the Democrat’s nominee, and
b. John McCain would be the Republican’s nominee?
I’m actually enjoying these Republican debates. For once, it appears the other side has a deep, talented, “I don’t have to swallow hard and then puke after voting for them” field of candidates. Personally, I’m rooting for Gingrich, because at the end of the day, Gingrich will always put country ahead of politics. (Unlike a lot of folks on both sides of the aisle now, unfortunately.) But I’d be fine with Romney. I’d be fine with Huntsman (who has no shot). I’d be fine with Herman Cain. I’d really be cool with Chris Christie, because he’s not a social conservative. Chris Christie is 2/3 of me politically: socially liberal, foreign policy hawk. I’m not as right wing on economics as him, but even I can admit that the Keynesian philosophy of the last three years has been an abysmal failure, and it’s time to try something else.
The only two in the field I have no stomach for are Michele Bachmann (who is flipping nuts), and Rick Santorum (who is way too conservative socially for my stomach). But even if Santorum was the nominee, I’d at least think about voting for him over … well, we’ll get to that in a moment. The point being: this is the deepest, most non-offensive field of candidates the Republicans have trotted out there since what, 1968? I look forward to the continuing debate amongst the field, and am cautiously optimistic that the nominee will be someone I can get behind (like McCain last time, and amazingly enough, Bush in 2004. Yes, the biggest Gore backer you’ll ever meet … voted Bush in 2004. I can’t explain it either. Oh wait, yes I can – John Edwards. Even back then, you could see the sleaze.)
* As for who my side runs with … how can it be Obama? If Obama is the nominee, we’re (in the words of ween) up sh*ts creek with a turd for a paddle. And I don’t just mean in the Presidential race – if Obama is at the top of the ballot, we will lose the Senate, the last bastion of sanity remaining in Washington. (Obama’s way too far off the reservation to the left, and the House, sweet Jesus, they’re the anti-NASCAR: no left turns anywhere, anytime, anyplace.)
Which is the point Dick Morris has been raising lately, and one I actually agree with: Obama isn’t Jimmy Carter II. He’s LBJ Jr. I concur with Morris – the only shot my side has of holding onto the White House (and the likely three Supreme Court nominees coming in the next Presidential term) … is if Obama steps aside. DNC rules state you have to be in by mid-November if you’re a credible candidate … unless the front-runner steps aside before the Convention.
I mean, is this set up perfectly for Hillary or what? Setting aside the fact that she should have been our nominee four years ago, she’s in perfect position to assume her proper position atop the party. The ONLY competent aspect of the Obama administration has been foreign policy, where what George Bush began has finally paid off, bringing self-determination to the Muslim world*. Most importantly, the biggest rat bastard of the modern era is currently passing through some shark’s digestive system in the Indian Ocean. And most obviously, you can’t blame her for the economic disaster Obama has been – if anything she can simply say “hey, we haven’t had unprecedented prosperity since this distinguished gentleman next to me was in charge. I think I know how to turn this economy around. And if I don’t, well, I know who to ask (huge applause line!)”
(*: it’s the biggest reason I supported the invasion of Iraq. Once one democracy was established in the region, the dictatorships would topple. I might have despised our previous President for a number of reasons … but on Iraq, he was 100 percent correct. And the ONE leading Democrat to stand behind him every step of the way on Iraq? Yup, Hillary. I’d really like to know what Mickey and his family think of Barry at this point. He’s everything I told you he’d be the weekend I essentially got booted from the lake. I told you he’d be an incompetent buffoon in over his head. I told you he’d be a one-termer. I told you we pissed away another FDR / Truman run of being in ultimate control by setting aside the candidate who did what was right, versus what was politically beneficial. I’d be REALLY curious to see if they’re all still wearing their Obama t-shirts, still have their Obama bumper stickers on every vehicle and boat. I’m guessing they do – anyone dumb enough to vote for Barry, is probably too stupid to admit they done f*cked up. But I’d be curious to know. I mean Jesus, even “The Self Proclaimed Champ” voted for McCain, and I don’t exactly view him as the bastion of common sense and/or political reason. (dusty voice) does he mean me? (stevo voice) YES! When even DJ has the common sense to reject Obama, my God, what the hell were his voters smoking?!?! (dusty voice) and can we have some? (stevo voice) no sh*t champ, no f*cking sh*t …)
If you put a gun to my head and made me predict the nominees right now … I’d say it’ll be a Romney / Marco Rubio ticket versus a Hillary / ??? ticket. And the three best possible picks for Hillary would be, in inverse order …
3. Jane Harmon (Rep, D-CA). Was the chair of the House Intelligence Committee until she basically told Speaker Pelosi to go to hell. Like Hillary, is a pro-war Democrat. Like Hillary, is a moderate on economics, and like Hillary, fights like hell for women’s and family social issues. I’d be perfectly fine supporting the first all-female ticket if this was it.
2. John Kerry (Sen, D-MA). My issue in 2004 was never Kerry, it was his running mate. If Kerry had picked ANYONE with an ounce of character, he’d have won in a landslide. Christ, he almost won with Edwards on the ticket. A Clinton / Kerry ticket has one major drawback though – all Northeast. (Spare me the “Clinton was Arkansas right?” rebuttal. That was 20 years ago. Everyone views Hillary as a New Yorker now.) The only all-sectional ticket to win in the last 100 years is Clinton / Gore. On second thought, maybe this isn’t so bad …
1. John McCain (Sen, R-AZ). McCain gave serious thought to nominating Joe Lieberman (D-CT, and spare me the I-CT, we all know he’s still a Democrat) as his running mate. What better way to unify the nation, and get rid of the catastrophe that is Obama, than by picking the most sensical, moderate, down-the-middle Republican out there? McCain and Hillary are close friends. They have very similar views (hence my joke, that sadly was actually accurate, that HRC was the most conservative of the three major candidates in 2008). Tell me a Hillary / McCain ticket wouldn’t win a 45 states and the District landslide victory. Sure, the Tea Partiers would vote against it … but who else would?
A couple final thoughts:
* NBA, get this done. If you lose games over a (at most) 2% salary cut? You people are dumber than I give you credit for being. I have to believe that David Stern does not want his final major act as commissioner to be cancelling the season over $40 million dollars a year.
* Sunday’s game: is going to be a blowout one way or the other. I predicted the Chiefs to win comfortably … but it’s gonna come down to which sh*tty quarterback self-implodes first. The first quarter is going to be huge Sunday. If the Chiefs D and the crowd rattles McNabb (like we did in his last visit here, had him down 17-0 after one, 23-6 early in the second), we roll to an easy win. If Cassel plays like he has for about 9 ½ of the 12 quarters so far, we’re getting demolished.
I’m betting on the former, on McNabb imploding. But if Cassel is the one who implodes, I won’t be stunned. And yes, it has sunk to this as a Chiefs fan – wondering if our quarterback is capable of doing enough positive stuff to beat an 0-3 team AT HOME. Which reminds me …
* I have come full circle on the man I affectionately call “Coach Asshat”, Todd Haley. Two years ago leaving the denver game, I wanted him fired on the spot, and spent twenty minutes contemplating rushing the field and attempting to beat him senseless with the back of my seat. (You laugh, but as my brother and his buddies proved at the playoff game last year – those seat backs are pretty easily removable.) Now? If Coach Haley is fired, then GM Scott Pioli better hit the curb right behind him.
This season is 100% the fault of Scott Pioli. He’s the one that has us $32 million plus under the cap. He’s the one who assembled zero depth at any position outside of running back. He’s the one who passed on the quarterback of the future three separate times during the draft, and spent his first round pick on a wide receiver who has yet to play a single down in the 2011 campaign. If this is Todd Haley’s fault, then at least hold the architect of this catastrophe as responsible as Haley.
Finally …
* one last prediction for the weekend. OK, two.
1. MU sticks it out in the Big XII. I also envision, once the Board votes on Tuesday to give it one more try, that BYU will come on board (a rock solid decision by the way). After that? Expand again to twelve, and target TCU (solid football program, further ties Texas to this conference, and oh yeah, a certain hot-as-hell 34 year old’s thoughts you’re reading right now graduated from there) … and South Florida. South Florida?!?! South Florida! You want to secure this conference’s future? Land a program in the most fertile football states in America. We already have Texas. Now add Florida. And …
2. Nebraska 31, Wisconsin 20. If the Big XII implodes on Tuesday, don’t blame Nebraska. Like any sane, rational person in the 2008 election – they saw this catastrophe coming. They had the common sense to get the f*ck out of town. Can’t fault them for employing common sense.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
week four: do or die
"There ain't a corner of this hallowed ground,
That we ain't laughed or cried on,
It's where we loved, and lived and learned,
Real life stuff -- it's everything we're made of.
It sure left it's mark on us,
And we sure left our mark on it.
Let the world know we were here,
With everything that we did.
We laid a lot of memories down,
Like tattoos on this town ..."
"Tattoos on this Town" by Jason Aldean.
-------------------------
Last Week ATS: 12-4-0.
Season to Date ATS: 24-22-2.
Last Week SU: 9-7-0.
Season to Date ATS: 25-23-0.
Last Week Upset / Week: accomplished it's purpose!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 2-1-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-3-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: Seahawks (+4) over Falcons.
The Irrelevant Prognostications:
* at Bears 24, Panthers (+6 1/2) 21. A virtual must win for the Bears, given what's on tap.
* at Rams (+1 1/2) 27, Redskins 20. Even at 0-4, Rams would still be the favorites in the putrid NFC Worst.
* Steelers (+3 1/2) 28, at Texans 20. The real Houston Texans showed up last week.
* Saints (-7) 34, at Jaguars 13. Smells like a good old fashioned woodshed beating.
* at Browns (PK) 24, Titans 20. Not sold on either of these teams, or this pick.
* Lions (+1 1/2) 41, at Cowboys 20. How in the hell is Dallas favored in this contest?
* Bills (-3) 30, at Bengals 20. Bills next two are Eagles and Giants. It would behoove them to win this one.
* at Seahawks (+4) 20, Falcons 14. Something isn't right with this Falcons squad.
* at Cardinals (1) 23, Giants 13. The Giants stink worse than a tuna melt sandwich left out in the sun for a week.
* Dolphins (+7) 27, at Chargers 14. Chargers are due for a stink bomb loss. Too bad last week wasn't it.
* Patriots (-4) 45, at raiders 21. I refuse to take the raiders as a credible threat to reach the postseason.
* at Packers (-12) 56, broncos 3. I can live with 1-15 for the Chiefs, so long as the 1 is denver at home.
* at Eagles 20, 49ers (+8 1/2) 13. Will be closer than you'd expect.
* at Ravens (-3 1/2) 27, Jets 10. Nothing like seeing a team you like get whipped in prime time.
* at Bucs (-10) 31, Colts 14. Nothing like seeing a team you despise get whipped in prime time.
The Chiefs Prediction:
I am beyond exhausted today. I suspect that many of you, if you are sports fans, are dragging just as much as me. And I suspect at least one of you is on freaking Cloud Nine.
There are many people in the Chiefs fanbase who have written off this season. Many who believe an 0 and 3 start dooms the season to failure. Anyone who believes that the 2011 Chiefs season is over, clearly has no clue what just happened this month in Major League Baseball.
Or what just happened last night at Tropicana Field.
(Note: if that wasn't the greatest two hour stretch of regular season baseball history, I have absolutely no idea what could possibly top it. The Rays rally from down 7 with 6 outs to go to steal the wildcard, after trailing by 9 games 23 days ago, the biggest comeback in baseball history. The Cards blow out the Astros, then see the Phillies, playing for absolutely nothing, rally from an early deficit to beat the Braves and hand them a gift wildcard berth, when they were 8 1/2 games back 23 days ago. Amazing stuff. Oh, and what I would not give as a Royals fan for just ONE FREAKING NIGHT like the Rays and Cards fans enjoyed last night. Just ONE FREAKING NIGHT like that. Let's get on that, 2012 Boyz n Blue.)
Sometimes, it helps to just state the obvious, and the obvious is this: Sunday is a MUST WIN game for the Kansas City Chiefs. We have reached our proverbial fail-safe line drawn in the sand. The good news is, we're facing possibly the only team more inept the first three weeks than we have been, in the winless Minnesota Vikings. The better news is, with a win on Sunday, it's not a (crack) pipe dream to see this team 6-3 heading to Foxboro in eight weeks. Our next six weeks? At winless Indy, bye, at oakland (where we've won 8 of 9), then home for three straight -- the Chargers in prime time, the winless Dolphins, and "the game I live for", against the woeful denver broncos. A win on Sunday? Absolutely could lead to one hell of a momentus run.
But without a win on Sunday, it's pointless to dwell on what could be.
Which means come Sunday, we have a job to do.
I hope every person who still considers themselves a die-hard Chiefs fan, comes out and supports this team with every last ounce of energy you can muster. If you don't believe this team can rally from 0 and 3, please, do us all a favor and stay home. No Debbie Downers. This team CAN recover. 0 and 3 is not a finish. It is a beginning. Granted, a horrific beginning, but it is NOT a finish. Believe in the potential this team has. You saw it in the second half last week. I believe you are going to see it for four quarters on Sunday.
Last week, I invoked a political rant into this normally politics-free column. This week, I'm going to violate another rule, and invoke religion into this post. The apostle Paul noted two thousand years ago that "now exists faith, hope, and love, but the greatest of these is love." I have faith the Chiefs are going to win Sunday. I have hope that this season is going to turn around. But even if my faith and hope go unrewarded, one thing won't change, and that is my love for this team.
I refuse to give up my faith, or my hope, in the potential of this team. Who gives a damn about the injuries, about the inept offensive gameplans, about the outhouse-smelling stink that is our starting quarterback? If you love this team, come out and will them to victory on Sunday!
As noted in the opening lyrics this week, there ain't a spot in that Complex that we haven't at some point in time laughed, cried, cheered, booed, or just boozed in support of the Red and Gold. Sunday, we'll be in our same bat spot, at our same bat time*. If you need a place to tailgate, we'll save you a spot, a burger, and a beer.
(*: since I'm guessing most people reading this won't get that cultural reference ... "same bat time, same bat channel" was how the original Batman show, starring "the Mayor of Quahog", signed off at the end of every episode. Oh, and if you don't know who the Mayor of Quahog, Rhode Island is, then ask a used record store salesman who didn't graduate from North Providence High, isn't friends with Gary down at the dry cleaners, and is offended by you offering to whiz on Amy Grant cd's to help you, because I sure as hell can't.)
Sunday, be loud. Be passionate. Mock people wearing purple and gold. And if any of them start that horrendous “Skoal, Vikings, skoal!” chant followed by the “aaauuuggghhhaaa!” foghorn noise, boo it mercilessly. It’s the stupidest cheer and noise in pro sports. (Just please, don't get violent with them. As someone who's been physically assaulted in multiple NFL stadiums by the other team's fans, trust me -- it ain't funny when some drunk decks you or throws beer on you, because of the t-shirt or the hat you're wearing. And yes, one of the stadiums I have been assaulted at, was the Metrodome. So hang on, maybe I should rethink this "no violence towards Vikings fan" request ...) Show up early, party late. If you love this team, the time has come to push the chips all in with your support. We need as many die-hards in the stands as possible on Sunday. I hope you'll be one of them.
"Let the world know we were here, with everything that we did." The Chiefs have certainly left their mark on us -- it's why we're fans of this team. Sunday, leave your mark on them. When the Chiefs are 6-3 heading to New England a few weeks from now, don't look back with regret at missing out on the start of something special.
I believe 9 wins will win the AFC West outright. I believe 8 will get into tiebreaker territory. It's time, Chiefs fans, to notch the first of those 9 in the win column. It's time to get this season started. Sunday looks beyond perfect -- pushing 80, not a cloud in sight. A beatable opponent, on a perfect sunny day that's not excessively hot, but warm enough to employ the Kenny Chesney philosophy of life that I absolutely agree with. (“No shoes? No shirt? No problems!”)
I still love this team. I always will. Even if hope and faith disappear after this week, love still remains. For one last week, I’m buying what Coach Asshat and his players are selling. I hope. At Chiefs (+1 ½) 24, Vikings 13.
And if I’m wrong? If this season is about to violently fly off the cliff and explode into a ball of gasoline and fire when it smashes into the rocky ravine below? Well, hang on. (stevo checking his liquor supply) I can handle it …
That we ain't laughed or cried on,
It's where we loved, and lived and learned,
Real life stuff -- it's everything we're made of.
It sure left it's mark on us,
And we sure left our mark on it.
Let the world know we were here,
With everything that we did.
We laid a lot of memories down,
Like tattoos on this town ..."
"Tattoos on this Town" by Jason Aldean.
-------------------------
Last Week ATS: 12-4-0.
Season to Date ATS: 24-22-2.
Last Week SU: 9-7-0.
Season to Date ATS: 25-23-0.
Last Week Upset / Week: accomplished it's purpose!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 2-1-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-3-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: Seahawks (+4) over Falcons.
The Irrelevant Prognostications:
* at Bears 24, Panthers (+6 1/2) 21. A virtual must win for the Bears, given what's on tap.
* at Rams (+1 1/2) 27, Redskins 20. Even at 0-4, Rams would still be the favorites in the putrid NFC Worst.
* Steelers (+3 1/2) 28, at Texans 20. The real Houston Texans showed up last week.
* Saints (-7) 34, at Jaguars 13. Smells like a good old fashioned woodshed beating.
* at Browns (PK) 24, Titans 20. Not sold on either of these teams, or this pick.
* Lions (+1 1/2) 41, at Cowboys 20. How in the hell is Dallas favored in this contest?
* Bills (-3) 30, at Bengals 20. Bills next two are Eagles and Giants. It would behoove them to win this one.
* at Seahawks (+4) 20, Falcons 14. Something isn't right with this Falcons squad.
* at Cardinals (1) 23, Giants 13. The Giants stink worse than a tuna melt sandwich left out in the sun for a week.
* Dolphins (+7) 27, at Chargers 14. Chargers are due for a stink bomb loss. Too bad last week wasn't it.
* Patriots (-4) 45, at raiders 21. I refuse to take the raiders as a credible threat to reach the postseason.
* at Packers (-12) 56, broncos 3. I can live with 1-15 for the Chiefs, so long as the 1 is denver at home.
* at Eagles 20, 49ers (+8 1/2) 13. Will be closer than you'd expect.
* at Ravens (-3 1/2) 27, Jets 10. Nothing like seeing a team you like get whipped in prime time.
* at Bucs (-10) 31, Colts 14. Nothing like seeing a team you despise get whipped in prime time.
The Chiefs Prediction:
I am beyond exhausted today. I suspect that many of you, if you are sports fans, are dragging just as much as me. And I suspect at least one of you is on freaking Cloud Nine.
There are many people in the Chiefs fanbase who have written off this season. Many who believe an 0 and 3 start dooms the season to failure. Anyone who believes that the 2011 Chiefs season is over, clearly has no clue what just happened this month in Major League Baseball.
Or what just happened last night at Tropicana Field.
(Note: if that wasn't the greatest two hour stretch of regular season baseball history, I have absolutely no idea what could possibly top it. The Rays rally from down 7 with 6 outs to go to steal the wildcard, after trailing by 9 games 23 days ago, the biggest comeback in baseball history. The Cards blow out the Astros, then see the Phillies, playing for absolutely nothing, rally from an early deficit to beat the Braves and hand them a gift wildcard berth, when they were 8 1/2 games back 23 days ago. Amazing stuff. Oh, and what I would not give as a Royals fan for just ONE FREAKING NIGHT like the Rays and Cards fans enjoyed last night. Just ONE FREAKING NIGHT like that. Let's get on that, 2012 Boyz n Blue.)
Sometimes, it helps to just state the obvious, and the obvious is this: Sunday is a MUST WIN game for the Kansas City Chiefs. We have reached our proverbial fail-safe line drawn in the sand. The good news is, we're facing possibly the only team more inept the first three weeks than we have been, in the winless Minnesota Vikings. The better news is, with a win on Sunday, it's not a (crack) pipe dream to see this team 6-3 heading to Foxboro in eight weeks. Our next six weeks? At winless Indy, bye, at oakland (where we've won 8 of 9), then home for three straight -- the Chargers in prime time, the winless Dolphins, and "the game I live for", against the woeful denver broncos. A win on Sunday? Absolutely could lead to one hell of a momentus run.
But without a win on Sunday, it's pointless to dwell on what could be.
Which means come Sunday, we have a job to do.
I hope every person who still considers themselves a die-hard Chiefs fan, comes out and supports this team with every last ounce of energy you can muster. If you don't believe this team can rally from 0 and 3, please, do us all a favor and stay home. No Debbie Downers. This team CAN recover. 0 and 3 is not a finish. It is a beginning. Granted, a horrific beginning, but it is NOT a finish. Believe in the potential this team has. You saw it in the second half last week. I believe you are going to see it for four quarters on Sunday.
Last week, I invoked a political rant into this normally politics-free column. This week, I'm going to violate another rule, and invoke religion into this post. The apostle Paul noted two thousand years ago that "now exists faith, hope, and love, but the greatest of these is love." I have faith the Chiefs are going to win Sunday. I have hope that this season is going to turn around. But even if my faith and hope go unrewarded, one thing won't change, and that is my love for this team.
I refuse to give up my faith, or my hope, in the potential of this team. Who gives a damn about the injuries, about the inept offensive gameplans, about the outhouse-smelling stink that is our starting quarterback? If you love this team, come out and will them to victory on Sunday!
As noted in the opening lyrics this week, there ain't a spot in that Complex that we haven't at some point in time laughed, cried, cheered, booed, or just boozed in support of the Red and Gold. Sunday, we'll be in our same bat spot, at our same bat time*. If you need a place to tailgate, we'll save you a spot, a burger, and a beer.
(*: since I'm guessing most people reading this won't get that cultural reference ... "same bat time, same bat channel" was how the original Batman show, starring "the Mayor of Quahog", signed off at the end of every episode. Oh, and if you don't know who the Mayor of Quahog, Rhode Island is, then ask a used record store salesman who didn't graduate from North Providence High, isn't friends with Gary down at the dry cleaners, and is offended by you offering to whiz on Amy Grant cd's to help you, because I sure as hell can't.)
Sunday, be loud. Be passionate. Mock people wearing purple and gold. And if any of them start that horrendous “Skoal, Vikings, skoal!” chant followed by the “aaauuuggghhhaaa!” foghorn noise, boo it mercilessly. It’s the stupidest cheer and noise in pro sports. (Just please, don't get violent with them. As someone who's been physically assaulted in multiple NFL stadiums by the other team's fans, trust me -- it ain't funny when some drunk decks you or throws beer on you, because of the t-shirt or the hat you're wearing. And yes, one of the stadiums I have been assaulted at, was the Metrodome. So hang on, maybe I should rethink this "no violence towards Vikings fan" request ...) Show up early, party late. If you love this team, the time has come to push the chips all in with your support. We need as many die-hards in the stands as possible on Sunday. I hope you'll be one of them.
"Let the world know we were here, with everything that we did." The Chiefs have certainly left their mark on us -- it's why we're fans of this team. Sunday, leave your mark on them. When the Chiefs are 6-3 heading to New England a few weeks from now, don't look back with regret at missing out on the start of something special.
I believe 9 wins will win the AFC West outright. I believe 8 will get into tiebreaker territory. It's time, Chiefs fans, to notch the first of those 9 in the win column. It's time to get this season started. Sunday looks beyond perfect -- pushing 80, not a cloud in sight. A beatable opponent, on a perfect sunny day that's not excessively hot, but warm enough to employ the Kenny Chesney philosophy of life that I absolutely agree with. (“No shoes? No shirt? No problems!”)
I still love this team. I always will. Even if hope and faith disappear after this week, love still remains. For one last week, I’m buying what Coach Asshat and his players are selling. I hope. At Chiefs (+1 ½) 24, Vikings 13.
And if I’m wrong? If this season is about to violently fly off the cliff and explode into a ball of gasoline and fire when it smashes into the rocky ravine below? Well, hang on. (stevo checking his liquor supply) I can handle it …
Monday, September 26, 2011
its not over ... yet.
“I was blown away, what could I say?
It all seemed to make sense.
You’ve taken away everything
That I can’t do without.
I try to see the good in life,
But good things in life are hard to find.
Blow it away, blow it away,
Can we make this something good?
Well I’ll try to do it right this time around …
Let’s start over!
I’ll try to do it right this time around!
It’s not over!
There’s a part of me that’s dead and in the ground.
This love is killing me,
But you’re the only one.
It’s not over!!!”
-- Daughtry, “It’s Not Over”. That’s Monday’s message: believe it or not … it’s not over! (Yet, anyways …)
-----------
"Sometimes, one play changes everything."
Four years ago, after the Chiefs staged an epic comeback upset of the Chargers in San Diego, thanks to a 51 yard touchdown to Dwayne Bowe on a 3rd and 19 to open the fourth quarter, that is the sentence I opened the email recap with.
"Sometimes, one play changes everything."
Chiefs fans, once again, I open a recap of a game in San Diego with those five words. Sometimes, one play changes everything. This time, that is NOT a good thing.
First, since lately it seems all we have to dwell on is the negative, let's accentuate what went right. And believe it or not, a TON went right yesterday. Especially the defensive gameplan.
Romeo Crennel, take a bow sir. That was one of the most genius defensive gameplans I have EVER seen on display yesterday. As angry as that finish made me, when I think of the efforts of the Red and Gold on the defensive side of the ball yesterday, I am proud. No really -- proud. That was a textbook in adjustments and scheming. Romeo is a horrendous head coach. (Every Cleveland Browns fan nodding their head in agreement.) He might be the brightest defensive mind this team has ever employed. And I am fully aware that the first three years under Marty, we employed Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, and Herm Edwards. Those four guys, on one staff? Unbelievable. An embarassment of riches.
(Note: spare me the anti-Herm crap. Herm had his issues as a head coach, I will concede that. I wouldn't have fired him, but whatever. No matter what you think of Herm as a head coach, there is no doubting his defensive mind. I will go to my grave believing that if Carl had let Herm fire Gunther, and bring in his own Cover Two guys to coordinate things, that the Chiefs never would have bottomed out like they did. Anyways, back to my original point.)
Do you realize that at one point in the third quarter yesterday, that our secondary consisted of Sabby Piscitelli, Jon McGraw, and Kendrick Lewis ... and that was it? NOBODY ELSE WAS HEALTHY. And somehow, with three defensive backs available (to cover four positions), Romeo Crennel pulled it off. The Chargers never beat us deep. How, you ask? How could a team with only three DBs not get abused deep? Because the front seven was that damned good. That is the most frustrated I believe I have ever seen Phyllis Rivers during a game. He imploded mentally yesterday folks, he freaking imploded. He looked like a spoiled child, with his constant whining to the officials, his coaches, his offensive players, the hot dog vendor, anyone who would listen. Even Dan Fouts, not exactly an unbiased observer, even Dan Fouts all but told him to shut the f*ck up from the announcing booth.
Glenn Dorsey looked very impressive yesterday. That might have been the best game of Tamba Hali's career, and considering he didn't practice this week due to injury issues, that is amazing. DJ was DJ -- in perfect position to make plays. (I know he dropped a gimme INT, but (a) he was essentially playing corner on that play due to our injury issues, and (b) he ALWAYS drops gimme INTs. Oh, and (c) the Chargers punted two plays later, no damage done.)
And the secondary, take a bow. If I'd told you that Brandon Flowers would be lost for the game early in the second quarter, that backup Travis Daniels would leave two plays later with a shoulder injury, and that we would have one healthy corner in the 3rd quarter (Lewis), and he's playing safety due to injury issues back there, what odds would you have given me that the Chargers would be up 40? Even? 2:3? I'd have been paying you to just take the bet, that's how little confidence any of us would have had.
I felt that the offensive gameplan in the second half was outstanding. I don't know who finally took the keys away from our Crazy Drunk Uncle Bill* at halftime, be it Todd Haley or Jim Zorn or Scott Pioli himself, but whoever demoted Bill Muir at halftime, you deserve a raise. I have to believe the Bill Muir experiment is over. The difference in gameplan between the second and third quarters was amazing to witness. We actually looked like a legitimate offense out there for stretches of the second half yesterday.
(*: I said "our", not "mine". Yes, I have a crazy drunk uncle named Bill (scroll down to DHDII's story). I have very big shoes to fill to become the A Man's crazy drunk uncle Stevo.)
And thanks to a courageous stand on 4th and inches, Matt Cassel was finally put in a position to sink or swim. That game was perfectly set up for the Chiefs to win it yesterday. (Or at least tie it, but as shaky as Ryan Succup has been? I think ... no, I know, Haley would have gone for the end zone on that final drive until he had no choice but to kick. He would not have played it safe and settled for the three.)
Cassel will never be gift-wrapped a better chance to steal a game he has no business winning, than what he was handed yesterday. The Chargers were reeling. And to Cassel's credit, he opened strong -- a perfectly thrown pass to Leonard Pope that put the Chiefs at the Chargers 42 with about a minute to play.
At that point ... well, like I said. Sometimes, one play changes everything. First, let me cut Cassel a tiny bit of slack, in that it was an ATROCIOUS playcall. I have absolutely no idea what the Chiefs were trying to accomplish with that play. The PROPER play call there would have been a double out pattern with Bowe and Pope, or Bowe and Breaston, ideally a 12 yard cut, so you (a) pick up the first down, (b) stop the clock by getting out of bounds, and (c) enter makeable field goal range. A 12 yard out pattern to Pope (just replay the previous playcall, only have Pope cut out instead of parking 10 yards downfield) was the perfect playcall there. Quick five step drop, and if Cassel is errant with the throw, the odds are, it sails out of bounds harmlessly, which stops the clock. Nothing bad would have happened with a double out pattern.
If the Chiefs wanted to change things up a bit (which, I suspect, was the reason behind the playcall), why not call a delayed handoff to McCluster there? The Chargers had dropped seven. You keep Pope in to block, power formation on the right side, and let Pope and Asomoah blow the hole open for McCluster to sprint through. It's what we were doing most of the second half, and it was working brilliantly*. A delayed offtackle sweep or a draw up the middle there, would also have made sense. (Yes, the clock would still be running, but your receivers wouldn't be 30 yards deep. You'd lose maybe 10 seconds to get back to the line and spike the ball, leaving you with what, 30-35 seconds left? Plenty of time if you're already in field goal range, which had the Chiefs run either play I just suggested above, we would have been.)
(*: This honestly is my biggest pet peeve about playcalling -- why in the hell do you stop running something that's working? Make the defense take it away from you! Back when "The Voice of Reason" and I were roommates, we constantly played either Madden or NCAA Football against each other. Every one of our contests was, as you'd expect from two people who face off every night, a pretty competitive game. So we'd each have to try out different things to avoid becoming too predictable. Having said that, there was one play Gregg would run, that no matter what I did, I couldn't stop it. I knew it was coming. I'd even shift my defense clear down the line ... and he'd still gain 11 yards every damned time. (It's a delayed offtackle run to the power side of the formation). Gregg would keep running it ... because it was guaranteed to work. He actually ran that play so well some nights ... that I never touched the ball the ENTIRE half (we played 5 minute quarters)!
Why do offensive coordinators feel the need to get cute, and go away from what's working? I will never understand this. The only offensive coordinator the Chiefs have employed in my lifetime that "got it" was Al Saunders. He'd bleed the quick screen to Dante Hall to death. He'd bleed the quick out to Tony Gonzalez to death. Why? BECAUSE THE PLAY WAS GUARANTEED TO WORK! If you know you're going to get 12 yards and a first down no matter what every time you call a play, uuh, why wouldn't you call it over and over again?
In case you doubt me, find a copy of the opening drive of the 2005 season, against the Jets at Arrowhead. It’s not like the Jets were awful – they had made the playoffs three of the last four years, and had nearly reached the AFC Title Game the season before. (Godd*mned Doug Brien missing not one, but TWO field goals inside the two minute warning, either of which would have upset the Steelers. Instead, the Jets lose in overtime.) Our first three plays that afternoon? Al Saunders called the SAME DAMNED PLAY all three times, offtackle left. Priest ran for 50 on the first two carries, and LJ finished off the last 28 yards on the third play. If the defense can’t stop the play, why not keep hammering them with it? God bless it, I miss Al Saunders. Never more so than yesterday, there isn’t a shot in hell Al calls that final play.)
As noted, the playcall selection was atrocious at that point of the game. What really infuriated me about the playcall there as well, is that we'd tried the exact same play on our second offensive possession, and it didn't work. It nearly blew up in our faces. (It was on 3rd down after the Lewis interception, I believe it was 3rd and 4, and we called that exact play. McCluster nearly got decapitated in the backfield by his own teammate before squeezing through for a 3 yard gain.) So let me get this straight -- we not only are calling a play that makes zero sense at that juncture ... we already know it won't work, because we've tried it! Oy, my head is hurting. Hold on. (stevo pouring a stiff vodka tonic ...)
And yet, you know what? I still am going to put all the blame on Matt Cassel there, because in that one moment, by allowing that play to be run, presumably unchallenged, we now know beyond the shadow of all doubt that the one thing a quarterback HAS to be able to do -- think on his feet in the heat of the moment -- Cassel is incapable of doing. Ask yourself this -- if that play is sent in to the Patriots huddle at that same moment in the game, do you think for one second that Tom Brady would run it? Or, would he laugh at the stupidity of the idea, and audible to something he knows will work? Exactly. I know Len Dawson is defending Cassel this morning by pointing out how bad the play call was, and that's fine. But Len? Would YOU have allowed that play to be run? Or would you have audibled out of it? Exactly. You can blame the playcall if you want for setting Cassel up to fail. I blame Cassel for not being intelligent enough to see the handwriting on the wall, and changing the play in the huddle or at the line.
And as for the throw itself, my God, what was he thinking? Wait, scratch that, because the answer to "what was he thinking" is clearly "not a godd*mned thing". No, what I want to know is, did Cassel even LOOK before he threw the pass? Or did he just take a three step drop and fling it, hoping someone would be there? Again, at the end of the day, you can polish this turd up all you want, but it's still a turd. It's still an indefensible throw that arose from an indefensible refusal to override / overrule an indefensible playcall.
So, instead of coming home with a season-salvaging victory, like what Herm's Chiefs got in 2006, or what Gun's Chiefs got in 1999 and 2000 in this spot, or Marty's Chiefs got in 1997 when their backs were to the wall, now we come home at 0-3, having p*ssed away a gift-wrapped victory from San Diego. The hard part of that is, quite honestly, not the loss itself. It's not even the recognition (that should be painfully obvious to everyone by now) that the Matt Cassel experiment is an abysmal failure. No, what kills me ... is that this season is anything but over. Yesterday is quite possibly the difference between repeating as division champs, and missing the playoffs at 8-8.
We currently sit at 0-3. That doesn’t concern me all that much -- look at our next six games. You can credibly see the Chiefs winning all six, and I'm not saying that as a biased observer. The Vikings are terrible. The Colts are worse. The Dolphins and donkeys are going nowhere fast. We get the Chargers at home in prime time, Arrowhead will be the difference. And we've won 8 of our last 9 in oakland. I can see us running off six straight wins.
But then what? If you presume, like I do, that right now, the Patriots, Jets, and Packers games are guaranteed losses ... and if you presume, like I do, that it will take at least 9 wins to reach the playoffs (I think 10-6 wins the AFC West outright, 9-7 gets you into tiebreaker scenarios with the Chargers and/or raiders. This division is horrific folks, it's horrific) ... then you realize that the Chiefs literally now have ZERO margin for error. We have to win EVERY OTHER GAME ON THE SCHEDULE, save for the Pats, Jets, and Packers, to be assured of reaching (carl peterson voice) “the tournament”. That means we have to beat the Steelers here, we have to win at Chicago, and we have to win at denver (never an easy thing, no matter how awful the broncos are.) Plus we can have zero screwups in our other seven games, beginning Sunday against the Vikings.
Is it possible? Sure. Again, look at those next six games. There's still a chance. I'd say right now the Chiefs have about a 10% chance of winning this division. (I'd put the Chargers at 60%, the raiders at 25%, the Chiefs at 10%, and the broncos at 5%.) But the margin for error is now zero. Thanks to one incredibly retarded decision by Matt Cassel, with the game on the line yesterday at the Q. That one play, changed everything. Here’s to hoping it didn’t cost us everything as well.
So, to answer a couple final obvious questions at the end here ...
* Yes, I will still be out there, rain or shine, win or lose, for the remaining seven games this year. Well, at least six of them; I'm having issues finding a flight back from Miami early enough on November 6th to ensure I can make kickoff. (Of COURSE we’d host the Dolphins on the weekend when I will be in Miami. Of COURSE it works like that.)
* Yes, we will still be there when the gates open, in our usual spot (the grassy lot by G30), doing what we do best (drinking ridiculous quantities of alcohol).
* No, I am NOT pulling the plug on this season. Did you not read the last four or five paragraphs before this? Do you not remember 2006? This season is NOT over yet! But Sunday is as close to “Must Win Sunday” as you can find in this League entering October.
* The main course for Sunday (as of now) is those burgers with the cheese already grilled into the center of them. Needless to say, someone can have my couple burgers, as I have no desire to spend an hour in the crappers at Arrowhead because of the cheese. If you're coming out, please feel free to join us, we'd love to have you.
* Oh, and Wednesday night, I am swinging by the Bus Barn to see if the "piece de tailgating resistance" is operational. Yes, someone with absolutely nothing better to do has built us a beer pong table. Right down to the table having 10 perfect depth holes (allegedly) for ponging it up. It's ... I ain't gonna lie, I took a look at it yesterday. It is pure white trash. The guy built it out of old beer signs in a smoking bar. It's ... the only way this thing can get any more redneck is if the folks playing it are shirtless and barefoot. (Hey, wait a second, that's me on any nice, sunny afternoon. No wonder I like this thing!) So hopefully we'll have that to enjoy on Sunday as well.
I do hope that everyone reading this can make it out there Sunday. The weather looks spectacular. (Long ranger as of Monday afternoon is 81 and sunny. Sweet!!!) Tickets are about as cheap as I've ever seen them, at least for an early in the season contest. Yes, we're 0-3. Yes, our quarterback (apparently) has the in-game IQ of a tackling dummy. But as bad as things are for us, realize this -- it's not going to get any worse this year, than it is right now. If we lose on Sunday, then season over, and we full on embrace “Suck for Luck”. (Or as I prefer, “Don ‘t Score for Moore!” I love Kellen Moore of Boise State, even more than I like Luck.)
But if we win Sunday? Then season still on (life support), but still on. It’s not over yet folks! It’s NOT OVER! This right now is the season's lowest point. Either we crap out and hit rock bottom on Sunday, or we start to rise a little bit towards the surface. I'm betting on the latter. But I'm surprisingly ok with the former ...
It all seemed to make sense.
You’ve taken away everything
That I can’t do without.
I try to see the good in life,
But good things in life are hard to find.
Blow it away, blow it away,
Can we make this something good?
Well I’ll try to do it right this time around …
Let’s start over!
I’ll try to do it right this time around!
It’s not over!
There’s a part of me that’s dead and in the ground.
This love is killing me,
But you’re the only one.
It’s not over!!!”
-- Daughtry, “It’s Not Over”. That’s Monday’s message: believe it or not … it’s not over! (Yet, anyways …)
-----------
"Sometimes, one play changes everything."
Four years ago, after the Chiefs staged an epic comeback upset of the Chargers in San Diego, thanks to a 51 yard touchdown to Dwayne Bowe on a 3rd and 19 to open the fourth quarter, that is the sentence I opened the email recap with.
"Sometimes, one play changes everything."
Chiefs fans, once again, I open a recap of a game in San Diego with those five words. Sometimes, one play changes everything. This time, that is NOT a good thing.
First, since lately it seems all we have to dwell on is the negative, let's accentuate what went right. And believe it or not, a TON went right yesterday. Especially the defensive gameplan.
Romeo Crennel, take a bow sir. That was one of the most genius defensive gameplans I have EVER seen on display yesterday. As angry as that finish made me, when I think of the efforts of the Red and Gold on the defensive side of the ball yesterday, I am proud. No really -- proud. That was a textbook in adjustments and scheming. Romeo is a horrendous head coach. (Every Cleveland Browns fan nodding their head in agreement.) He might be the brightest defensive mind this team has ever employed. And I am fully aware that the first three years under Marty, we employed Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, and Herm Edwards. Those four guys, on one staff? Unbelievable. An embarassment of riches.
(Note: spare me the anti-Herm crap. Herm had his issues as a head coach, I will concede that. I wouldn't have fired him, but whatever. No matter what you think of Herm as a head coach, there is no doubting his defensive mind. I will go to my grave believing that if Carl had let Herm fire Gunther, and bring in his own Cover Two guys to coordinate things, that the Chiefs never would have bottomed out like they did. Anyways, back to my original point.)
Do you realize that at one point in the third quarter yesterday, that our secondary consisted of Sabby Piscitelli, Jon McGraw, and Kendrick Lewis ... and that was it? NOBODY ELSE WAS HEALTHY. And somehow, with three defensive backs available (to cover four positions), Romeo Crennel pulled it off. The Chargers never beat us deep. How, you ask? How could a team with only three DBs not get abused deep? Because the front seven was that damned good. That is the most frustrated I believe I have ever seen Phyllis Rivers during a game. He imploded mentally yesterday folks, he freaking imploded. He looked like a spoiled child, with his constant whining to the officials, his coaches, his offensive players, the hot dog vendor, anyone who would listen. Even Dan Fouts, not exactly an unbiased observer, even Dan Fouts all but told him to shut the f*ck up from the announcing booth.
Glenn Dorsey looked very impressive yesterday. That might have been the best game of Tamba Hali's career, and considering he didn't practice this week due to injury issues, that is amazing. DJ was DJ -- in perfect position to make plays. (I know he dropped a gimme INT, but (a) he was essentially playing corner on that play due to our injury issues, and (b) he ALWAYS drops gimme INTs. Oh, and (c) the Chargers punted two plays later, no damage done.)
And the secondary, take a bow. If I'd told you that Brandon Flowers would be lost for the game early in the second quarter, that backup Travis Daniels would leave two plays later with a shoulder injury, and that we would have one healthy corner in the 3rd quarter (Lewis), and he's playing safety due to injury issues back there, what odds would you have given me that the Chargers would be up 40? Even? 2:3? I'd have been paying you to just take the bet, that's how little confidence any of us would have had.
I felt that the offensive gameplan in the second half was outstanding. I don't know who finally took the keys away from our Crazy Drunk Uncle Bill* at halftime, be it Todd Haley or Jim Zorn or Scott Pioli himself, but whoever demoted Bill Muir at halftime, you deserve a raise. I have to believe the Bill Muir experiment is over. The difference in gameplan between the second and third quarters was amazing to witness. We actually looked like a legitimate offense out there for stretches of the second half yesterday.
(*: I said "our", not "mine". Yes, I have a crazy drunk uncle named Bill (scroll down to DHDII's story). I have very big shoes to fill to become the A Man's crazy drunk uncle Stevo.)
And thanks to a courageous stand on 4th and inches, Matt Cassel was finally put in a position to sink or swim. That game was perfectly set up for the Chiefs to win it yesterday. (Or at least tie it, but as shaky as Ryan Succup has been? I think ... no, I know, Haley would have gone for the end zone on that final drive until he had no choice but to kick. He would not have played it safe and settled for the three.)
Cassel will never be gift-wrapped a better chance to steal a game he has no business winning, than what he was handed yesterday. The Chargers were reeling. And to Cassel's credit, he opened strong -- a perfectly thrown pass to Leonard Pope that put the Chiefs at the Chargers 42 with about a minute to play.
At that point ... well, like I said. Sometimes, one play changes everything. First, let me cut Cassel a tiny bit of slack, in that it was an ATROCIOUS playcall. I have absolutely no idea what the Chiefs were trying to accomplish with that play. The PROPER play call there would have been a double out pattern with Bowe and Pope, or Bowe and Breaston, ideally a 12 yard cut, so you (a) pick up the first down, (b) stop the clock by getting out of bounds, and (c) enter makeable field goal range. A 12 yard out pattern to Pope (just replay the previous playcall, only have Pope cut out instead of parking 10 yards downfield) was the perfect playcall there. Quick five step drop, and if Cassel is errant with the throw, the odds are, it sails out of bounds harmlessly, which stops the clock. Nothing bad would have happened with a double out pattern.
If the Chiefs wanted to change things up a bit (which, I suspect, was the reason behind the playcall), why not call a delayed handoff to McCluster there? The Chargers had dropped seven. You keep Pope in to block, power formation on the right side, and let Pope and Asomoah blow the hole open for McCluster to sprint through. It's what we were doing most of the second half, and it was working brilliantly*. A delayed offtackle sweep or a draw up the middle there, would also have made sense. (Yes, the clock would still be running, but your receivers wouldn't be 30 yards deep. You'd lose maybe 10 seconds to get back to the line and spike the ball, leaving you with what, 30-35 seconds left? Plenty of time if you're already in field goal range, which had the Chiefs run either play I just suggested above, we would have been.)
(*: This honestly is my biggest pet peeve about playcalling -- why in the hell do you stop running something that's working? Make the defense take it away from you! Back when "The Voice of Reason" and I were roommates, we constantly played either Madden or NCAA Football against each other. Every one of our contests was, as you'd expect from two people who face off every night, a pretty competitive game. So we'd each have to try out different things to avoid becoming too predictable. Having said that, there was one play Gregg would run, that no matter what I did, I couldn't stop it. I knew it was coming. I'd even shift my defense clear down the line ... and he'd still gain 11 yards every damned time. (It's a delayed offtackle run to the power side of the formation). Gregg would keep running it ... because it was guaranteed to work. He actually ran that play so well some nights ... that I never touched the ball the ENTIRE half (we played 5 minute quarters)!
Why do offensive coordinators feel the need to get cute, and go away from what's working? I will never understand this. The only offensive coordinator the Chiefs have employed in my lifetime that "got it" was Al Saunders. He'd bleed the quick screen to Dante Hall to death. He'd bleed the quick out to Tony Gonzalez to death. Why? BECAUSE THE PLAY WAS GUARANTEED TO WORK! If you know you're going to get 12 yards and a first down no matter what every time you call a play, uuh, why wouldn't you call it over and over again?
In case you doubt me, find a copy of the opening drive of the 2005 season, against the Jets at Arrowhead. It’s not like the Jets were awful – they had made the playoffs three of the last four years, and had nearly reached the AFC Title Game the season before. (Godd*mned Doug Brien missing not one, but TWO field goals inside the two minute warning, either of which would have upset the Steelers. Instead, the Jets lose in overtime.) Our first three plays that afternoon? Al Saunders called the SAME DAMNED PLAY all three times, offtackle left. Priest ran for 50 on the first two carries, and LJ finished off the last 28 yards on the third play. If the defense can’t stop the play, why not keep hammering them with it? God bless it, I miss Al Saunders. Never more so than yesterday, there isn’t a shot in hell Al calls that final play.)
As noted, the playcall selection was atrocious at that point of the game. What really infuriated me about the playcall there as well, is that we'd tried the exact same play on our second offensive possession, and it didn't work. It nearly blew up in our faces. (It was on 3rd down after the Lewis interception, I believe it was 3rd and 4, and we called that exact play. McCluster nearly got decapitated in the backfield by his own teammate before squeezing through for a 3 yard gain.) So let me get this straight -- we not only are calling a play that makes zero sense at that juncture ... we already know it won't work, because we've tried it! Oy, my head is hurting. Hold on. (stevo pouring a stiff vodka tonic ...)
And yet, you know what? I still am going to put all the blame on Matt Cassel there, because in that one moment, by allowing that play to be run, presumably unchallenged, we now know beyond the shadow of all doubt that the one thing a quarterback HAS to be able to do -- think on his feet in the heat of the moment -- Cassel is incapable of doing. Ask yourself this -- if that play is sent in to the Patriots huddle at that same moment in the game, do you think for one second that Tom Brady would run it? Or, would he laugh at the stupidity of the idea, and audible to something he knows will work? Exactly. I know Len Dawson is defending Cassel this morning by pointing out how bad the play call was, and that's fine. But Len? Would YOU have allowed that play to be run? Or would you have audibled out of it? Exactly. You can blame the playcall if you want for setting Cassel up to fail. I blame Cassel for not being intelligent enough to see the handwriting on the wall, and changing the play in the huddle or at the line.
And as for the throw itself, my God, what was he thinking? Wait, scratch that, because the answer to "what was he thinking" is clearly "not a godd*mned thing". No, what I want to know is, did Cassel even LOOK before he threw the pass? Or did he just take a three step drop and fling it, hoping someone would be there? Again, at the end of the day, you can polish this turd up all you want, but it's still a turd. It's still an indefensible throw that arose from an indefensible refusal to override / overrule an indefensible playcall.
So, instead of coming home with a season-salvaging victory, like what Herm's Chiefs got in 2006, or what Gun's Chiefs got in 1999 and 2000 in this spot, or Marty's Chiefs got in 1997 when their backs were to the wall, now we come home at 0-3, having p*ssed away a gift-wrapped victory from San Diego. The hard part of that is, quite honestly, not the loss itself. It's not even the recognition (that should be painfully obvious to everyone by now) that the Matt Cassel experiment is an abysmal failure. No, what kills me ... is that this season is anything but over. Yesterday is quite possibly the difference between repeating as division champs, and missing the playoffs at 8-8.
We currently sit at 0-3. That doesn’t concern me all that much -- look at our next six games. You can credibly see the Chiefs winning all six, and I'm not saying that as a biased observer. The Vikings are terrible. The Colts are worse. The Dolphins and donkeys are going nowhere fast. We get the Chargers at home in prime time, Arrowhead will be the difference. And we've won 8 of our last 9 in oakland. I can see us running off six straight wins.
But then what? If you presume, like I do, that right now, the Patriots, Jets, and Packers games are guaranteed losses ... and if you presume, like I do, that it will take at least 9 wins to reach the playoffs (I think 10-6 wins the AFC West outright, 9-7 gets you into tiebreaker scenarios with the Chargers and/or raiders. This division is horrific folks, it's horrific) ... then you realize that the Chiefs literally now have ZERO margin for error. We have to win EVERY OTHER GAME ON THE SCHEDULE, save for the Pats, Jets, and Packers, to be assured of reaching (carl peterson voice) “the tournament”. That means we have to beat the Steelers here, we have to win at Chicago, and we have to win at denver (never an easy thing, no matter how awful the broncos are.) Plus we can have zero screwups in our other seven games, beginning Sunday against the Vikings.
Is it possible? Sure. Again, look at those next six games. There's still a chance. I'd say right now the Chiefs have about a 10% chance of winning this division. (I'd put the Chargers at 60%, the raiders at 25%, the Chiefs at 10%, and the broncos at 5%.) But the margin for error is now zero. Thanks to one incredibly retarded decision by Matt Cassel, with the game on the line yesterday at the Q. That one play, changed everything. Here’s to hoping it didn’t cost us everything as well.
So, to answer a couple final obvious questions at the end here ...
* Yes, I will still be out there, rain or shine, win or lose, for the remaining seven games this year. Well, at least six of them; I'm having issues finding a flight back from Miami early enough on November 6th to ensure I can make kickoff. (Of COURSE we’d host the Dolphins on the weekend when I will be in Miami. Of COURSE it works like that.)
* Yes, we will still be there when the gates open, in our usual spot (the grassy lot by G30), doing what we do best (drinking ridiculous quantities of alcohol).
* No, I am NOT pulling the plug on this season. Did you not read the last four or five paragraphs before this? Do you not remember 2006? This season is NOT over yet! But Sunday is as close to “Must Win Sunday” as you can find in this League entering October.
* The main course for Sunday (as of now) is those burgers with the cheese already grilled into the center of them. Needless to say, someone can have my couple burgers, as I have no desire to spend an hour in the crappers at Arrowhead because of the cheese. If you're coming out, please feel free to join us, we'd love to have you.
* Oh, and Wednesday night, I am swinging by the Bus Barn to see if the "piece de tailgating resistance" is operational. Yes, someone with absolutely nothing better to do has built us a beer pong table. Right down to the table having 10 perfect depth holes (allegedly) for ponging it up. It's ... I ain't gonna lie, I took a look at it yesterday. It is pure white trash. The guy built it out of old beer signs in a smoking bar. It's ... the only way this thing can get any more redneck is if the folks playing it are shirtless and barefoot. (Hey, wait a second, that's me on any nice, sunny afternoon. No wonder I like this thing!) So hopefully we'll have that to enjoy on Sunday as well.
I do hope that everyone reading this can make it out there Sunday. The weather looks spectacular. (Long ranger as of Monday afternoon is 81 and sunny. Sweet!!!) Tickets are about as cheap as I've ever seen them, at least for an early in the season contest. Yes, we're 0-3. Yes, our quarterback (apparently) has the in-game IQ of a tackling dummy. But as bad as things are for us, realize this -- it's not going to get any worse this year, than it is right now. If we lose on Sunday, then season over, and we full on embrace “Suck for Luck”. (Or as I prefer, “Don ‘t Score for Moore!” I love Kellen Moore of Boise State, even more than I like Luck.)
But if we win Sunday? Then season still on (life support), but still on. It’s not over yet folks! It’s NOT OVER! This right now is the season's lowest point. Either we crap out and hit rock bottom on Sunday, or we start to rise a little bit towards the surface. I'm betting on the latter. But I'm surprisingly ok with the former ...
Sunday, September 25, 2011
full thoughts coming tomorrow but ...
If any Chiefs fan can still defend Matt Cassel after today, then you are a mother f*cking idiot.
I am totally willing to grant you, that the offensive game plan, if you can even call it that, in the first half, was, uuh, "offensive".
I am totally willing to grant you, that when Brandon Flowers left in the second quarter with yet another knee injury, that I threw my Jets hat onto the concrete and screamed "God F*cking D*mmit!"
And I am even willing to concede, that Todd Haley and/or Jim Zorn taking over the play calling in the second half (because one of them clearly did), gave us a chance to win.
But that final pass? That final, game-tying and/or winning drive killing pass? Is COMPLETELY and TOTALLY on Matt Cassel.
Matt, buddy, you are DEAD to me. With the revolver, in the conservatory, and you can bet your mother f*cking ass I pulled the trigger. DEAD! to me.
The Chiefs should be 1-2 right now. (Ryan Succup, I'd check your windows and/or locks this week champ. You're on the "it" list as well. Missing from 38 is an unforgivable crime. DEAD! to me, champ. DEAD!) Instead, we're 0-3, hosting another 0-3 squad.
The good news is ,,, our next six games, we figure to either be favored, or have a very reasonable shot to win them. The bad news is ... that was also true for the previous three, and we haven't won a game since Jesus' last birthday ...
I am totally willing to grant you, that the offensive game plan, if you can even call it that, in the first half, was, uuh, "offensive".
I am totally willing to grant you, that when Brandon Flowers left in the second quarter with yet another knee injury, that I threw my Jets hat onto the concrete and screamed "God F*cking D*mmit!"
And I am even willing to concede, that Todd Haley and/or Jim Zorn taking over the play calling in the second half (because one of them clearly did), gave us a chance to win.
But that final pass? That final, game-tying and/or winning drive killing pass? Is COMPLETELY and TOTALLY on Matt Cassel.
Matt, buddy, you are DEAD to me. With the revolver, in the conservatory, and you can bet your mother f*cking ass I pulled the trigger. DEAD! to me.
The Chiefs should be 1-2 right now. (Ryan Succup, I'd check your windows and/or locks this week champ. You're on the "it" list as well. Missing from 38 is an unforgivable crime. DEAD! to me, champ. DEAD!) Instead, we're 0-3, hosting another 0-3 squad.
The good news is ,,, our next six games, we figure to either be favored, or have a very reasonable shot to win them. The bad news is ... that was also true for the previous three, and we haven't won a game since Jesus' last birthday ...
Friday, September 23, 2011
the week three guesses
“Another sleepless night I can’t explain.
Somebody said they heard me call your name.
The radio won’t let you leave my mind.
I know it’s over, but I don’t know why.
Should’ve known better,
Than to fall in love with you.
Now love is just a faded memory.
Should’ve known better,
Now I’m a prisoner to this pain.
And my heart still aches for you …”
-- “Should’ve Known Better” by Richard Marx. I want to state up front, when you reach the Chiefs prediction, I go off on a side rant about the Republican debate last night. If you are NOT a fan of politics, I have put the entire rant in italics. You can skip to the normal looking font again if you don't give a rip about politics. I have had a horrendous week at work, and it isn't over yet. The last thing I need is to read your smart-ass "wow, way to never work politics into a picks column Stevo" rebuttal. I am giving you your out.
And I will again, at the start of the italicized portion of this post, re-state the disclaimer. Having said that ... you might be surprised at the fact that I'm going to DEFEND the Republican candidates positions from last night in said side rant. For the most part, anyways ...
--------------------
Last Week ATS: 6-9-1.
Season to Date ATS: 12-18-2.
Last Week SU: 9-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 16-16-0.
Last Week Upset / Week ATS: whiffed by nearly 40 points!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 1-1-0.
Last Week Upset/ Week SU: no bueno.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-2-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: broncos (+7) over Titans. (the lovely kellie voice) godd*mmit Steve, quit jinxing my team! Sorry chica, but if my team is going down the crapper, I'm gonna do everything in my power to make sure yours is swimming in the sewage with us ...
The "Who Gives a Damn" Game Predictions:
* at Panthers (-3 1/2) 31, Jaguars 10. For what it's worth, I agree that it's Gabbert time in Jacksonville.
* at Eagles (-7) 27, Giants 13. The Giants stink. They absolutely stink.
* Patriots 24, at Bills (+9) 21. I am really looking forward to catching this one. Bills are for real.
* Ravens (-4) 27, at Rams 20. Hard to believe the Rams are staring 0-3 in the face.
* Dolphins (+2 1/2) 26, at Browns 20. Dolphins are 1-12 at home, 9-1 on the road since December 2009.
* 49ers (+3) 24, at Bengals 20. Wrong team is favored. Bengals are terrible.
* at Bucs (-1 1/2) 27, Falcons 17. FOX national late game is best game of the week.
* at Seahawks (+3) 13, Cardinals 10. Winner of this game becomes the early favorite in the NFC West.
* broncos (+7) 27, at Titans 21. Winner of this game in great shape to be AFC's surprise playoff team.
* Steelers 20, at Colts (+10 1/2) 13. Might be the worst SNF game NBC has ever aired.
* Lions 24, at Vikings (+3 1/2) 21. I really want to pick the upset ... but I can't pull the trigger.
* at Saints (-3 1/2) 45, Texans 13. How is this line less than 10? Load up on the Saints.
* at Bears (-3 1/2) 28, Packers 14. Ooh. This is gonna be a good one.
* at Cowboys (-4) 24, Redskins 17. The last time Romo played on MNF, his season ended.
The Gang Green Prediction:
The last time the Jets visited oakland, the game was such a laugher that quarterback Mark Sanchez literally bought a hot dog off a vendor and downed it on the sidelines. This time ... history is not going to repeat itself. Oh, the Jets are going to win, because the raiders are still the same old lovable raiders, committing ridiculous penalties, blowing huge leads, allowing 4th down conversions, allowing opposing wide receivers to run around uncovered in the secondary. But I'm guessing it'll be closer than the game in 2009. I hate three point spreads sometimes, because this one feels like a last second field goal game. So ... Jets (-3) 24, raiders 19. But I am not sold on this pick at all.
The Chiefs "Fire the Dart and Hope It Hits Something" Harebrained Approximation:
Let me open by saying this – I had a totally, completely, 180 degree different angle I was going to go with for the Chiefs prediction this week. I had the picks post typed up, proofed, and ready to go about 7pm last night.
And for some reason, I didn’t post it. It just sat there, my Word doc opened but not copied and pasted into Blogspot. I just didn’t feel like it was the right angle. I thought it was a good one, and I might revisit it, possibly as soon as next week. But I just thought for this week, I’d screwed the pooch if I posted it.
So, I laid my head down, tried to get some sleep, only visions of the Republican field kept popping into my head*. Unable to sleep, I fired the laptop back up and started surfing the net. And then the angle to go with this week hit me like a ton of bricks. I am going to catch a lot of “whoa!” and “how can Stevo make this pick?!?!” responses to this week’s prediction. If you read Monday’s posting, you know I’m not exactly thrilled with where this team (and especially this quarterback) are at right now.
(*: most in a negative fashion. I truly do not grasp the conservative mentality. Allow me to vent for a couple minutes, and IF YOU DON’T GIVE A SH*T ABOUT POLITICS, SKIP DOWN TO WHERE THE ITALICS END. I don’t need your hate mail today. Christ, I don’t charge you to read this, shut up with the b*tching.
Do you people on the far right not realize that it is your anti-tax policies from the late 1990s / early 2000s that bankrupted this nation’s state governments? You don’t return unexpected surpluses and slash the tax rate, you BANK the revenues for when the economy inevitably downturns! We live in a capitalistic society, there WILL BE ebbs and flows to the economy! Do you not understand Economics 101?
Do you not understand that vaccinating kids from HPV is a GOOD thing? Do you not understand that giving children of illegal immigrants in-state tuition DOESN’T COST YOU ONE DAMNED CENT OUT OF YOUR POCKET? And that it’s a good thing, because hopefully they will become contributing members of our society, instead of petty criminals or worse?
Do you not understand that everywhere it has been tried, the insurance exchanges RomneyCare (and eventually ObamaCare) enacted has LOWERED insurance costs? Or that the individual mandate also LOWERS COSTS by EXPANDING the insured pool?
And for the love of God, while I completely agree Social Security needs some changes, do you not realize that running around calling it a “Ponzi Scheme” (however accurate that description may be) is only going to frighten seniors and those who depend on Social Security for survival to vote AGAINST you?!?! I mean, sweet freaking Jesus, are you REALLY this stupid? Has sitting in a pew listening to some pedophile in a frock finally warped your brain to the point that common sense has said “sayonara” to you? (OK, that was a low blow. If you aren’t Catholic, your minister probably is a decent, upstanding person. Unless his name is Jerry Johnston, that man is worse than ANYTHING the Church has to offer. And I refuse to step foot inside my parish until and unless the Church finally cleanses itself of the evil inside of it. Sorry St. Regis. There’s a reason why you haven’t gotten an appearance from me in four years and counting …)
Look it, I cannot stand our current President. I strongly supported Hillary in the primaries, and I voted for McCain in the general election. Unless you’re dumb enough to nominate Michele Bachmann, and I have to believe that no matter how nutty the right wing gets, even THEY aren’t that stupid, unless you nominate her, I’m voting for your candidate if Barry is our nominee. But for crying out loud, use your brains that the God you worship gave you! Rick Perry is a damned good governor, and would be a damned good President. Ditto Mitt Romney. And the pony / puppy / rooster / rubber chicken I want to see emerge on top, Newt Gingrich. (And that goes double if the rumors on Drudge tonight are true, and NJ Governor Chris Christie is getting into the race. Good God, I might nut if that happened. A conservative who gets it?!?! A conservative who understands social issues are a personal matter, not a national platform?!?! We haven’t seen that since Ronald Reagan was all there!)
This race is yours to lose, unless my party wakes up out of its “hope and change” haze and dumps Barry for Hillary. (Which, as nutty as it sounds … I actually think might happen. When the Chicago Tribune calls on Barry to step aside for Hillary, I mean, damn, the base is gone folks. The base is freaking gone.) Don’t screw this up by looking like a bunch of Special Olympians working a Rubik’s Cube on national television, like you did last night. I want Obama out of office even more than you all do, because he’s DESTROYING the progressive agenda. It took 12 years to get America to even consider the Democrats again after Carter, and if Ross Perot hadn’t run in 1992, it would have taken 28. (And for those who argue the progressive agenda is guaranteed to fail, I give you the 1990s under Bill Clinton as exhibit A for the defense of said progressive agenda.)
Please, give your rock solid candidates a fair shake. And here’s a helpful hint: Michele Bachmann? NOT a rock solid candidate. She’s flipping nuts. OK, back to the pick. That last rant brought to you by our good friends at the Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado.)
To haul out an old “Lost” phrase: “either you’re a man of science, or a man of faith”. I am a man of science. Specifically statistics. I believe the stats never lie. You can ALWAYS find an explanation for why things are the way they are, if you’re willing to do the research.
Ladies, gentlemen, Dusty (I kid, I kid …), folks – the stats don’t lie. With all apologies for not getting this out to you on email today, with all apologies for this labored explanation … I give you the Chiefs Prediction for Week Three.
--------------------
If the Chiefs are to win this game, it will be because of one reason, and one reason only.
The man affectionately known in NFL circles as "Stanley Roper".
Norval Eugene Turner.
He's the best, and possibly only, hope the Chiefs have of stealing this game, of jump-starting a rapidly deteriorating season, and giving Arrowhead Nation a ray of sunshine in an otherwise dark, dreary, cloudy existance. I know the fashionable thing is to look at this matchup and conclude the Chiefs are going to get annihilated. It's ok to think that way. We lost 31-0 at the Q last year, and 44-14 the year before that. We've dropped our last four games that count to the tune of 150-27. Our best player on offense is out for the season, as is our best player on defense.
To say that our odds of winning this game are lower than the President's approval rating amongst Tea Party members, is a fairly accurate statement.
But all that statement means, in the words of noted intellectual genius Lloyd Christmas, is that I'm saying there's a chance.
If you know me at all, you know that I am a very big believer in statistics. (That whole “man of science” thing). So, possibly out of desperation to get some sleep, and also because I dig statistical research, I thought it would be neat to go back and do some research when it comes to Norv Turner's Chargers. Specifically, how many times in his four plus years at the helm has an underdog not just covered, but won outright over Norv's Chargers?
The results ... shocked me.
2007 (Chargers 13-6 with postseason):
week 3: Chargers -3 1/2 at Packers. Packers 31, Chargers 24.
week 4: Chargers -11 1/2 vs Chiefs. Chiefs 31, Chargers 17.
week 9: Chargers -7 at Vikings. Vikings 35, Chargers 17.
2008 (Chargers 9-9 with postseason):
week 1: Chargers -9 1/2 vs Panthers. Panthers 26, Chargers 24.
week 2: Chargers -2 at denver. broncos 39, Chargers 38.
week 5: Chargers -6 1/2 at Dolphins. Dolphins 17, Chargers 10.
week 7: Chargers -1 at Bills. Bills 23, Chargers 14.
week 8: Chargers -3 vs Saints. Saints 37, Chargers 32.
week 12: Chargers -3 vs Colts. Colts 23, Chargers 20.
week 13: Chargers -8 vs Falcons. Falcons 22, Chargers 16.
2009 (Chargers 13-4 with postseason):
week 2: Chargers -5 1/2 vs Ravens. Ravens 31, Chargers 26.
week 6: Chargers -8 vs broncos. broncos 34, Chargers 23.
Divisional Round: Chargers -11 vs Jets. Jets 17, Chargers 14.
2010 (Chargers 9-7, no postseason):
week 1: Chargers -4 1/2 at Chiefs. Chiefs 21, Chargers 14.
week 3: Chargers -5 1/2 at Seahawks. Seahawks 27, Chargers 20.
week 5: Chargers -6 at raiders. raiders 35, Chargers 27.
week 6: Chargers -8 at Rams. Rams 20, Chargers 17.
week 7: Chargers -3 vs Patriots. Patriots 23, Chargers 20.
week 13: Chargers -13 vs raiders. raiders 28, Chargers 13.
week 16: Chargers -8 at Bengals. Bengals 34, Chargers 20.
(source: old prediction emails (2007) and posts on this site (2008 through present day). In addition, I had to confirm a couple lines via Danny Sheridan’s archives at usatoday.com, which are the official lines used in my predictions emails / posts every week. Oh, and all final scores / actual outcomes confirmed via nfl.com/schedules.)
You can't make this stuff up folks. TWENTY DIFFERENT TIMES in the Norv Turner era, the Chargers have been favorites ... and LOST OUTRIGHT! Norv Turner has coached 72 games (through last week) with the Chargers. TWENTY of those 72 have seen a favored Chargers team LOSE OUTRIGHT!
Furthermore, look at the lines! 9 separate times the Chargers have been AT LEAST a 7 point favorite ... AND LOST OUTRIGHT!
Even more damning, the Chargers have lost 26 times in Norv's 72 games at the helm. (46-26 overall). In 20 of those 26 losses, the Chargers were FAVORED and LOST!
(To put this in perspective ... the Chargers are losing, on average, 5 games a year that they are expected to win. Five games a year! And they're still 20 games over .500 in that stretch! If you have ANY doubt that coaching matters in the NFL, I give you Stanley Roper's San Diego "Super" Chargers. I have NO doubt that if they had a legitimate head coach, they would have won at least one Lombardi Trophy over the last four years. Instead, they've lost 20 times when they weren't expected to, half of those 20 losses when they were favored by at least a touchdown.)
Do you still think this game is hopeless? Do you still believe the Chiefs have no chance? Wake up and smell the roses, skippy! Norv's teams routinely lose as huge favorites! Especially early in the season! Why can't this week be the same? Why can't history continue to repeat itself?
Why CAN'T the Chiefs go into San Diego, play a smart, efficient game on offense, limit the big plays on defense, let the Chargers screw themselves on special teams once again, and emerge with a season-establishing victory? Why CAN'T we do this?
The answer, of course, is that the Chiefs CAN to win this game. The question is, WILL they.
I have to be honest – this is quite possibly the first time in many a moon that I have absolutely no idea what to predict. My head says that what I wrote on Monday, is reality. That the Chiefs are toast, that our injury situation coupled with the catastrophe under center has doomed us to a long, painful season of failure.
But my heart says we can do this. We’ve done it before – look at that list of Norv Turner chokes again. We’re on there twice, including as an 11 ½ point dog in 2007. And that 2007 Chiefs team is one of the two worst squads in franchise history (along with the 1977 squad).
That whole “man of science” stuff? Still applies. Especially when, like Jack Shepherd by season six of “Lost”, you can evolve into a “man of faith” to boot. Norv Turner’s team loses on average five games a year it shouldn’t. The Chiefs are nowhere near as bad as they’ve looked the previous couple weeks. On Sunday, something has to give.
I’m betting it won’t be Norv’s dismal coaching. Chiefs (+15) 23, at Chargers 16. But NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS on Sunday, it’s NEXT Sunday that the season depends on. You can recover from 0-3. It happens about once every three years. Only one team has ever rallied from 0-4 to reach the playoffs. Let’s get this done Chiefs. Let’s get this done …
Somebody said they heard me call your name.
The radio won’t let you leave my mind.
I know it’s over, but I don’t know why.
Should’ve known better,
Than to fall in love with you.
Now love is just a faded memory.
Should’ve known better,
Now I’m a prisoner to this pain.
And my heart still aches for you …”
-- “Should’ve Known Better” by Richard Marx. I want to state up front, when you reach the Chiefs prediction, I go off on a side rant about the Republican debate last night. If you are NOT a fan of politics, I have put the entire rant in italics. You can skip to the normal looking font again if you don't give a rip about politics. I have had a horrendous week at work, and it isn't over yet. The last thing I need is to read your smart-ass "wow, way to never work politics into a picks column Stevo" rebuttal. I am giving you your out.
And I will again, at the start of the italicized portion of this post, re-state the disclaimer. Having said that ... you might be surprised at the fact that I'm going to DEFEND the Republican candidates positions from last night in said side rant. For the most part, anyways ...
--------------------
Last Week ATS: 6-9-1.
Season to Date ATS: 12-18-2.
Last Week SU: 9-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 16-16-0.
Last Week Upset / Week ATS: whiffed by nearly 40 points!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 1-1-0.
Last Week Upset/ Week SU: no bueno.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-2-0.
This Week's Upset / Week: broncos (+7) over Titans. (the lovely kellie voice) godd*mmit Steve, quit jinxing my team! Sorry chica, but if my team is going down the crapper, I'm gonna do everything in my power to make sure yours is swimming in the sewage with us ...
The "Who Gives a Damn" Game Predictions:
* at Panthers (-3 1/2) 31, Jaguars 10. For what it's worth, I agree that it's Gabbert time in Jacksonville.
* at Eagles (-7) 27, Giants 13. The Giants stink. They absolutely stink.
* Patriots 24, at Bills (+9) 21. I am really looking forward to catching this one. Bills are for real.
* Ravens (-4) 27, at Rams 20. Hard to believe the Rams are staring 0-3 in the face.
* Dolphins (+2 1/2) 26, at Browns 20. Dolphins are 1-12 at home, 9-1 on the road since December 2009.
* 49ers (+3) 24, at Bengals 20. Wrong team is favored. Bengals are terrible.
* at Bucs (-1 1/2) 27, Falcons 17. FOX national late game is best game of the week.
* at Seahawks (+3) 13, Cardinals 10. Winner of this game becomes the early favorite in the NFC West.
* broncos (+7) 27, at Titans 21. Winner of this game in great shape to be AFC's surprise playoff team.
* Steelers 20, at Colts (+10 1/2) 13. Might be the worst SNF game NBC has ever aired.
* Lions 24, at Vikings (+3 1/2) 21. I really want to pick the upset ... but I can't pull the trigger.
* at Saints (-3 1/2) 45, Texans 13. How is this line less than 10? Load up on the Saints.
* at Bears (-3 1/2) 28, Packers 14. Ooh. This is gonna be a good one.
* at Cowboys (-4) 24, Redskins 17. The last time Romo played on MNF, his season ended.
The Gang Green Prediction:
The last time the Jets visited oakland, the game was such a laugher that quarterback Mark Sanchez literally bought a hot dog off a vendor and downed it on the sidelines. This time ... history is not going to repeat itself. Oh, the Jets are going to win, because the raiders are still the same old lovable raiders, committing ridiculous penalties, blowing huge leads, allowing 4th down conversions, allowing opposing wide receivers to run around uncovered in the secondary. But I'm guessing it'll be closer than the game in 2009. I hate three point spreads sometimes, because this one feels like a last second field goal game. So ... Jets (-3) 24, raiders 19. But I am not sold on this pick at all.
The Chiefs "Fire the Dart and Hope It Hits Something" Harebrained Approximation:
Let me open by saying this – I had a totally, completely, 180 degree different angle I was going to go with for the Chiefs prediction this week. I had the picks post typed up, proofed, and ready to go about 7pm last night.
And for some reason, I didn’t post it. It just sat there, my Word doc opened but not copied and pasted into Blogspot. I just didn’t feel like it was the right angle. I thought it was a good one, and I might revisit it, possibly as soon as next week. But I just thought for this week, I’d screwed the pooch if I posted it.
So, I laid my head down, tried to get some sleep, only visions of the Republican field kept popping into my head*. Unable to sleep, I fired the laptop back up and started surfing the net. And then the angle to go with this week hit me like a ton of bricks. I am going to catch a lot of “whoa!” and “how can Stevo make this pick?!?!” responses to this week’s prediction. If you read Monday’s posting, you know I’m not exactly thrilled with where this team (and especially this quarterback) are at right now.
(*: most in a negative fashion. I truly do not grasp the conservative mentality. Allow me to vent for a couple minutes, and IF YOU DON’T GIVE A SH*T ABOUT POLITICS, SKIP DOWN TO WHERE THE ITALICS END. I don’t need your hate mail today. Christ, I don’t charge you to read this, shut up with the b*tching.
Do you people on the far right not realize that it is your anti-tax policies from the late 1990s / early 2000s that bankrupted this nation’s state governments? You don’t return unexpected surpluses and slash the tax rate, you BANK the revenues for when the economy inevitably downturns! We live in a capitalistic society, there WILL BE ebbs and flows to the economy! Do you not understand Economics 101?
Do you not understand that vaccinating kids from HPV is a GOOD thing? Do you not understand that giving children of illegal immigrants in-state tuition DOESN’T COST YOU ONE DAMNED CENT OUT OF YOUR POCKET? And that it’s a good thing, because hopefully they will become contributing members of our society, instead of petty criminals or worse?
Do you not understand that everywhere it has been tried, the insurance exchanges RomneyCare (and eventually ObamaCare) enacted has LOWERED insurance costs? Or that the individual mandate also LOWERS COSTS by EXPANDING the insured pool?
And for the love of God, while I completely agree Social Security needs some changes, do you not realize that running around calling it a “Ponzi Scheme” (however accurate that description may be) is only going to frighten seniors and those who depend on Social Security for survival to vote AGAINST you?!?! I mean, sweet freaking Jesus, are you REALLY this stupid? Has sitting in a pew listening to some pedophile in a frock finally warped your brain to the point that common sense has said “sayonara” to you? (OK, that was a low blow. If you aren’t Catholic, your minister probably is a decent, upstanding person. Unless his name is Jerry Johnston, that man is worse than ANYTHING the Church has to offer. And I refuse to step foot inside my parish until and unless the Church finally cleanses itself of the evil inside of it. Sorry St. Regis. There’s a reason why you haven’t gotten an appearance from me in four years and counting …)
Look it, I cannot stand our current President. I strongly supported Hillary in the primaries, and I voted for McCain in the general election. Unless you’re dumb enough to nominate Michele Bachmann, and I have to believe that no matter how nutty the right wing gets, even THEY aren’t that stupid, unless you nominate her, I’m voting for your candidate if Barry is our nominee. But for crying out loud, use your brains that the God you worship gave you! Rick Perry is a damned good governor, and would be a damned good President. Ditto Mitt Romney. And the pony / puppy / rooster / rubber chicken I want to see emerge on top, Newt Gingrich. (And that goes double if the rumors on Drudge tonight are true, and NJ Governor Chris Christie is getting into the race. Good God, I might nut if that happened. A conservative who gets it?!?! A conservative who understands social issues are a personal matter, not a national platform?!?! We haven’t seen that since Ronald Reagan was all there!)
This race is yours to lose, unless my party wakes up out of its “hope and change” haze and dumps Barry for Hillary. (Which, as nutty as it sounds … I actually think might happen. When the Chicago Tribune calls on Barry to step aside for Hillary, I mean, damn, the base is gone folks. The base is freaking gone.) Don’t screw this up by looking like a bunch of Special Olympians working a Rubik’s Cube on national television, like you did last night. I want Obama out of office even more than you all do, because he’s DESTROYING the progressive agenda. It took 12 years to get America to even consider the Democrats again after Carter, and if Ross Perot hadn’t run in 1992, it would have taken 28. (And for those who argue the progressive agenda is guaranteed to fail, I give you the 1990s under Bill Clinton as exhibit A for the defense of said progressive agenda.)
Please, give your rock solid candidates a fair shake. And here’s a helpful hint: Michele Bachmann? NOT a rock solid candidate. She’s flipping nuts. OK, back to the pick. That last rant brought to you by our good friends at the Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado.)
To haul out an old “Lost” phrase: “either you’re a man of science, or a man of faith”. I am a man of science. Specifically statistics. I believe the stats never lie. You can ALWAYS find an explanation for why things are the way they are, if you’re willing to do the research.
Ladies, gentlemen, Dusty (I kid, I kid …), folks – the stats don’t lie. With all apologies for not getting this out to you on email today, with all apologies for this labored explanation … I give you the Chiefs Prediction for Week Three.
--------------------
If the Chiefs are to win this game, it will be because of one reason, and one reason only.
The man affectionately known in NFL circles as "Stanley Roper".
Norval Eugene Turner.
He's the best, and possibly only, hope the Chiefs have of stealing this game, of jump-starting a rapidly deteriorating season, and giving Arrowhead Nation a ray of sunshine in an otherwise dark, dreary, cloudy existance. I know the fashionable thing is to look at this matchup and conclude the Chiefs are going to get annihilated. It's ok to think that way. We lost 31-0 at the Q last year, and 44-14 the year before that. We've dropped our last four games that count to the tune of 150-27. Our best player on offense is out for the season, as is our best player on defense.
To say that our odds of winning this game are lower than the President's approval rating amongst Tea Party members, is a fairly accurate statement.
But all that statement means, in the words of noted intellectual genius Lloyd Christmas, is that I'm saying there's a chance.
If you know me at all, you know that I am a very big believer in statistics. (That whole “man of science” thing). So, possibly out of desperation to get some sleep, and also because I dig statistical research, I thought it would be neat to go back and do some research when it comes to Norv Turner's Chargers. Specifically, how many times in his four plus years at the helm has an underdog not just covered, but won outright over Norv's Chargers?
The results ... shocked me.
2007 (Chargers 13-6 with postseason):
week 3: Chargers -3 1/2 at Packers. Packers 31, Chargers 24.
week 4: Chargers -11 1/2 vs Chiefs. Chiefs 31, Chargers 17.
week 9: Chargers -7 at Vikings. Vikings 35, Chargers 17.
2008 (Chargers 9-9 with postseason):
week 1: Chargers -9 1/2 vs Panthers. Panthers 26, Chargers 24.
week 2: Chargers -2 at denver. broncos 39, Chargers 38.
week 5: Chargers -6 1/2 at Dolphins. Dolphins 17, Chargers 10.
week 7: Chargers -1 at Bills. Bills 23, Chargers 14.
week 8: Chargers -3 vs Saints. Saints 37, Chargers 32.
week 12: Chargers -3 vs Colts. Colts 23, Chargers 20.
week 13: Chargers -8 vs Falcons. Falcons 22, Chargers 16.
2009 (Chargers 13-4 with postseason):
week 2: Chargers -5 1/2 vs Ravens. Ravens 31, Chargers 26.
week 6: Chargers -8 vs broncos. broncos 34, Chargers 23.
Divisional Round: Chargers -11 vs Jets. Jets 17, Chargers 14.
2010 (Chargers 9-7, no postseason):
week 1: Chargers -4 1/2 at Chiefs. Chiefs 21, Chargers 14.
week 3: Chargers -5 1/2 at Seahawks. Seahawks 27, Chargers 20.
week 5: Chargers -6 at raiders. raiders 35, Chargers 27.
week 6: Chargers -8 at Rams. Rams 20, Chargers 17.
week 7: Chargers -3 vs Patriots. Patriots 23, Chargers 20.
week 13: Chargers -13 vs raiders. raiders 28, Chargers 13.
week 16: Chargers -8 at Bengals. Bengals 34, Chargers 20.
(source: old prediction emails (2007) and posts on this site (2008 through present day). In addition, I had to confirm a couple lines via Danny Sheridan’s archives at usatoday.com, which are the official lines used in my predictions emails / posts every week. Oh, and all final scores / actual outcomes confirmed via nfl.com/schedules.)
You can't make this stuff up folks. TWENTY DIFFERENT TIMES in the Norv Turner era, the Chargers have been favorites ... and LOST OUTRIGHT! Norv Turner has coached 72 games (through last week) with the Chargers. TWENTY of those 72 have seen a favored Chargers team LOSE OUTRIGHT!
Furthermore, look at the lines! 9 separate times the Chargers have been AT LEAST a 7 point favorite ... AND LOST OUTRIGHT!
Even more damning, the Chargers have lost 26 times in Norv's 72 games at the helm. (46-26 overall). In 20 of those 26 losses, the Chargers were FAVORED and LOST!
(To put this in perspective ... the Chargers are losing, on average, 5 games a year that they are expected to win. Five games a year! And they're still 20 games over .500 in that stretch! If you have ANY doubt that coaching matters in the NFL, I give you Stanley Roper's San Diego "Super" Chargers. I have NO doubt that if they had a legitimate head coach, they would have won at least one Lombardi Trophy over the last four years. Instead, they've lost 20 times when they weren't expected to, half of those 20 losses when they were favored by at least a touchdown.)
Do you still think this game is hopeless? Do you still believe the Chiefs have no chance? Wake up and smell the roses, skippy! Norv's teams routinely lose as huge favorites! Especially early in the season! Why can't this week be the same? Why can't history continue to repeat itself?
Why CAN'T the Chiefs go into San Diego, play a smart, efficient game on offense, limit the big plays on defense, let the Chargers screw themselves on special teams once again, and emerge with a season-establishing victory? Why CAN'T we do this?
The answer, of course, is that the Chiefs CAN to win this game. The question is, WILL they.
I have to be honest – this is quite possibly the first time in many a moon that I have absolutely no idea what to predict. My head says that what I wrote on Monday, is reality. That the Chiefs are toast, that our injury situation coupled with the catastrophe under center has doomed us to a long, painful season of failure.
But my heart says we can do this. We’ve done it before – look at that list of Norv Turner chokes again. We’re on there twice, including as an 11 ½ point dog in 2007. And that 2007 Chiefs team is one of the two worst squads in franchise history (along with the 1977 squad).
That whole “man of science” stuff? Still applies. Especially when, like Jack Shepherd by season six of “Lost”, you can evolve into a “man of faith” to boot. Norv Turner’s team loses on average five games a year it shouldn’t. The Chiefs are nowhere near as bad as they’ve looked the previous couple weeks. On Sunday, something has to give.
I’m betting it won’t be Norv’s dismal coaching. Chiefs (+15) 23, at Chargers 16. But NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS on Sunday, it’s NEXT Sunday that the season depends on. You can recover from 0-3. It happens about once every three years. Only one team has ever rallied from 0-4 to reach the playoffs. Let’s get this done Chiefs. Let’s get this done …
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
a (not quite) voice of reason reacts to monday's post ... oh wait, that's me ...
Just so everyone knows, before I get into what I want to say today, I am well-prepared for Sunday. I intend to watch Sunday's game on the back deck at Russ and Mona's. By "well prepared", I mean, there are (as of when I left last night) 11 bottles of wine chilling in the fridge, to cope with what could happen on Sunday. And I fully intend to grab at least a couple of the big Barefoot or Little Penguin bottles on the way over, to ensure I am properly medicated, in case this thing turns into what happened our last two trips out there (losing by a combined score of 74-14). So, if you have nothing else to do, and want to be around the last few remaining hopeful Chiefs fans come Sunday, head on over and join us.
And just to state up front, I concur with the oddsmakers -- it is far more likely that the Chiefs lose by two plus touchdowns, than it is that the Chiefs keep this thing close, or spring one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. At this moment, as I noted on Monday, there is not one credible reason to predict the Chiefs to win this football game. None. As noted at PFT this week, only two starting quarterbacks through week two have a QB rating below 71 -- Luke McCown, who has been benched for Blaine Gabbert ... and Matt Cassel. Meaning that as of this posting, Matt Cassel is officially the worst starting quarterback in the National Football League. Hang on, let me start drinking heavily ...
Three of the Chiefs key eight players are done for the year. Three weeks, three blown ACL's. (Be honest: aren't you kind of hoping that if a fourth in four weeks goes down, that it's Tyson Jackson? Or Sabby Piscitelli? I mean, for crying out loud, if we're gonna lose a player for the season every week, so be it, but God forbid we lose a sh*tty one every now and then.) The Chiefs not only have been outscored by 79 points ... the next closest "bad" team, in terms of point differential to the Chiefs, is the Seattle Seahawks, who have been outscored by 40. We are not just losing every game we play -- we are getting blown out of the building.
On paper, there is one credible reason to take the Chiefs to even cover the ridiculous 16 point spread*, and predict the outright upset. But the NFL doesn't play games on paper. The Chiefs CAN win this game. Here's what we have to do to spring the upset.
(*: you talk about disrespect -- the biggest line of the season so far was Seattle at Pittsburgh. Everyone agrees the Seahawks are terrible, and the Steelers are pretty good. Pittsburgh was a 13 1/2 point favorite. Meaning the oddsmakers think we're worse than Seattle? Come on. Even I think that's ridiculous.)
First, you have to deal with the elephant in the room. Something isn't right with this team's makeup, it's mental conditioning. I have my theory on it, and it's this -- noone in the Chiefs locker room, be it coaches, players, or front office executives, took the Bills or Lions seriously. I honestly believe we expected the Bill Maas Memorial Helmet Rule to kick in for these last two games -- if we just show up and put our helmets on, we'll win. In the interest of fairness? I felt the exact same way entering both games. I thought Buffalo would be a challenge for awhile, but didn't give them any chance to win at Arrowhead. And I refused to take the Lions as a credible NFL team ... until watching that game last week. (And even then, what if McGraw holds onto that opening interception? How different might things have been?)
This week, I expect no such issues. Everyone knows the Chargers are the favorites at this point to win the division. If you can't get up to play a legitimate Super Bowl contender, possibly with your season on the line, then you have no business being in the NFL. None.
(Note: I do not believe the season is on the line Sunday. The season is on the line next Sunday, and the following Sunday, when we host Minnesota and visit Indy, two games we should win, despite our current injury issues. That would get you to 2-3 at the bye, with a winnable roadie at oakland up next, and then three straight home games. No matter what happens Sunday, the season is not over. Well, unless the team's plane crashes or something, then I guess it'd be "over" in every sense of the word. And I would never wish that on the Red and Gold, only the blue and orange, or the silver and black.)
Secondly, you have to give some credit where it's due. Hidden in the loss at Detroit was the fact that the secondary held up fairly well. We never really got beat deep. Jon McGraw was consistently in position to make plays (and did, my God how big that opening fumble was.) Kendrick Lewis was rock solid covering Detroit's tight ends -- they only had two catches. The leaks in the secondary that Buffalo exploited, the Lions never really did. It wasn't until Chiefs wide receivers began dropping every pass, having it bounce off their hands into Lions' defenders, or having it sail right through their hands into Lions' defenders, that the score got out of hand. I see no reason to expect anything but a decent performance out of the defense on Sunday. Especially since San Diego's offensive line has serious pass protection issues, Phyllis Rivers is getting pummeled back there.
Third, the running game is not necessarily in shambles. LaRon McClain can provide you with a solid 4, 4 1/2 yard average per carry, he can be your grind it out guy. I actually liked what the gameplan evolved to after Jamaal Charles went out -- a heavier emphasis on the passing game, more draws / delayed offtackle runs when we stuck to the ground. I would hope (and expect) that the Chiefs will stick to that plan this week, because our best chance to win is to put the ball in the hands of Matt Cassel, and let him sink or swim.
Which brings me to point four, and it is this: if there is one positive to come out of Jamaal Charles' injury, and I know, I'm reaching for a positive here, it is this: we will now know beyond the shadow of any doubt if Matt Cassel is a franchise quarterback or not. For the Chiefs brain trust, the jury is still out on that one. I have my opinion on the issue, but will concede that come week 17, either everyone will conclude with my opinion (he's dead to me, cut the cord), or I'll be wearing the clown suit, the dunce cap, the helmet that "special kids" have to wear. I hope it's the latter. I fear it's the former. Either way, we will know.
This is Matt Cassel's team now. No excuses. Despite the injuries, there is still a TON of talent on this team. There's still, with even mediocre quarterback play, enough talent to go 6-8, 7-7 the rest of the way, and finish in the middle of the pack, entering the December stretch run on the fringes of the wildcard race. If Matt Cassel steps up to the plate, so to speak, and does what the Chiefs braintrust needs him to do, the Chiefs season is not dead.
Look it, nobody is more down on Cassel than I am. I think that when you drop the "f*ck him, he is DEAD to me" blast, you pretty much make your feelings known*. But if there is a slight glimmer of hope to this rapidly fading season, it's that we've seen Matt Cassel deliver in the clutch before. Let's go back to last season's lowest moment. The Chiefs are getting boatraced 35-10 in denver at the half. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong for the Chiefs, including Matt Cassel's awful performance. We're now staring dropping from 3-0 to 5-4 in the face, getting embarrassed at our hated rival's hands, and dropping into a tie for first with oakland and San Diego.
(*: for reference, the only three people in life I have ever noted are "dead to me", mafia style, are Matt Cassel, Tony Muser, and "Deadbeat Ex Roommate". Matt, buddy -- that is NOT good company you are keeping.)
Here is Cassel's performance from that point forward (source: espn.com box scores):
* 2nd half at denver (19-13 Chiefs advantage): 21/37 (57%), 303 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
* vs Arizona (Chiefs W 31-13): 15/24 (63%), 193 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 115.5 rating.
* at Seattle (Chiefs W 42-24): 22/32 (69%), 233 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 129.3 rating.
* vs denver (Chiefs W 10-6): 17/31 (55%), 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 84.9 rating.
* at St. Louis (Chiefs W 27-13): 15/29 (52%), 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 68.8 rating (1).
* vs Tennessee (Chiefs W 34-14): 24/34 (71%), 314 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 128.8 rating (2).
Average: 21/34 (62%), 259 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 105.5 rating.
Oh, and 5.5 "wins", 0 losses.
(1): first game back from appendectomy 11 days earlier.
(2): clinched AFC West championship.
When the Chiefs HAD to have clutch play last season, Cassel delivered, winning 5 straight starts, propelling the Chiefs to their first divisional championship since 2003. Whatever issues I may have with Cassel, the stats don't lie -- when the Chiefs HAD to have clutch play at quarterback, they got it. When the Chiefs HAD to win a ballgame, they did it, with Cassel under center.
Now, were the broncos, Cardinals, and Titans god-awful teams last year? Yes. If the Chiefs and those teams met on a neutral field in Wichita ten times, I would expect the Chiefs to win 10 times. But winning at Seattle is nothing to laugh about -- ask the New Orleans Saints or the San Diego Chargers. Winning in St. Louis is nothing to laugh at either -- ask the Chargers, whose loss at the Dome cost them the division title.
Beginning Sunday, Cassel faces another stretch of games where, if the Chiefs are to be successful on the field and climb back into title contention, Cassel has to be the difference-maker. He also, perhaps most importantly, faces a stretch of very winnable games, and that includes Sunday's tilt at the Q. We know from last year that he CAN do it, that he CAN rally the Chiefs and lead us back into contention for a playoff berth and a division championship. CAN he do it, is not the question.
WILL he do it, THAT is the question.
If you put a gun to my head and made me wager my existance on the answer to that question, I'd say "no". But like the rest of you, I'll be tuned in, praying that I'm wrong. Because no matter how negative, angry, irate, frustrated, or embarrassed as a Chiefs fan I might feel today ... I'm still a Chiefs fan. That negativity, anger, rage, frustration, and embarrassment comes from the fact that I love these guys. I love the Red and Gold. (I'm also on the hook for another seven games, son of a ...) I know virtually everyone else reading this does too. Let's hope that blind support gets rewarded come 6ish Sunday night ...
And just to state up front, I concur with the oddsmakers -- it is far more likely that the Chiefs lose by two plus touchdowns, than it is that the Chiefs keep this thing close, or spring one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. At this moment, as I noted on Monday, there is not one credible reason to predict the Chiefs to win this football game. None. As noted at PFT this week, only two starting quarterbacks through week two have a QB rating below 71 -- Luke McCown, who has been benched for Blaine Gabbert ... and Matt Cassel. Meaning that as of this posting, Matt Cassel is officially the worst starting quarterback in the National Football League. Hang on, let me start drinking heavily ...
Three of the Chiefs key eight players are done for the year. Three weeks, three blown ACL's. (Be honest: aren't you kind of hoping that if a fourth in four weeks goes down, that it's Tyson Jackson? Or Sabby Piscitelli? I mean, for crying out loud, if we're gonna lose a player for the season every week, so be it, but God forbid we lose a sh*tty one every now and then.) The Chiefs not only have been outscored by 79 points ... the next closest "bad" team, in terms of point differential to the Chiefs, is the Seattle Seahawks, who have been outscored by 40. We are not just losing every game we play -- we are getting blown out of the building.
On paper, there is one credible reason to take the Chiefs to even cover the ridiculous 16 point spread*, and predict the outright upset. But the NFL doesn't play games on paper. The Chiefs CAN win this game. Here's what we have to do to spring the upset.
(*: you talk about disrespect -- the biggest line of the season so far was Seattle at Pittsburgh. Everyone agrees the Seahawks are terrible, and the Steelers are pretty good. Pittsburgh was a 13 1/2 point favorite. Meaning the oddsmakers think we're worse than Seattle? Come on. Even I think that's ridiculous.)
First, you have to deal with the elephant in the room. Something isn't right with this team's makeup, it's mental conditioning. I have my theory on it, and it's this -- noone in the Chiefs locker room, be it coaches, players, or front office executives, took the Bills or Lions seriously. I honestly believe we expected the Bill Maas Memorial Helmet Rule to kick in for these last two games -- if we just show up and put our helmets on, we'll win. In the interest of fairness? I felt the exact same way entering both games. I thought Buffalo would be a challenge for awhile, but didn't give them any chance to win at Arrowhead. And I refused to take the Lions as a credible NFL team ... until watching that game last week. (And even then, what if McGraw holds onto that opening interception? How different might things have been?)
This week, I expect no such issues. Everyone knows the Chargers are the favorites at this point to win the division. If you can't get up to play a legitimate Super Bowl contender, possibly with your season on the line, then you have no business being in the NFL. None.
(Note: I do not believe the season is on the line Sunday. The season is on the line next Sunday, and the following Sunday, when we host Minnesota and visit Indy, two games we should win, despite our current injury issues. That would get you to 2-3 at the bye, with a winnable roadie at oakland up next, and then three straight home games. No matter what happens Sunday, the season is not over. Well, unless the team's plane crashes or something, then I guess it'd be "over" in every sense of the word. And I would never wish that on the Red and Gold, only the blue and orange, or the silver and black.)
Secondly, you have to give some credit where it's due. Hidden in the loss at Detroit was the fact that the secondary held up fairly well. We never really got beat deep. Jon McGraw was consistently in position to make plays (and did, my God how big that opening fumble was.) Kendrick Lewis was rock solid covering Detroit's tight ends -- they only had two catches. The leaks in the secondary that Buffalo exploited, the Lions never really did. It wasn't until Chiefs wide receivers began dropping every pass, having it bounce off their hands into Lions' defenders, or having it sail right through their hands into Lions' defenders, that the score got out of hand. I see no reason to expect anything but a decent performance out of the defense on Sunday. Especially since San Diego's offensive line has serious pass protection issues, Phyllis Rivers is getting pummeled back there.
Third, the running game is not necessarily in shambles. LaRon McClain can provide you with a solid 4, 4 1/2 yard average per carry, he can be your grind it out guy. I actually liked what the gameplan evolved to after Jamaal Charles went out -- a heavier emphasis on the passing game, more draws / delayed offtackle runs when we stuck to the ground. I would hope (and expect) that the Chiefs will stick to that plan this week, because our best chance to win is to put the ball in the hands of Matt Cassel, and let him sink or swim.
Which brings me to point four, and it is this: if there is one positive to come out of Jamaal Charles' injury, and I know, I'm reaching for a positive here, it is this: we will now know beyond the shadow of any doubt if Matt Cassel is a franchise quarterback or not. For the Chiefs brain trust, the jury is still out on that one. I have my opinion on the issue, but will concede that come week 17, either everyone will conclude with my opinion (he's dead to me, cut the cord), or I'll be wearing the clown suit, the dunce cap, the helmet that "special kids" have to wear. I hope it's the latter. I fear it's the former. Either way, we will know.
This is Matt Cassel's team now. No excuses. Despite the injuries, there is still a TON of talent on this team. There's still, with even mediocre quarterback play, enough talent to go 6-8, 7-7 the rest of the way, and finish in the middle of the pack, entering the December stretch run on the fringes of the wildcard race. If Matt Cassel steps up to the plate, so to speak, and does what the Chiefs braintrust needs him to do, the Chiefs season is not dead.
Look it, nobody is more down on Cassel than I am. I think that when you drop the "f*ck him, he is DEAD to me" blast, you pretty much make your feelings known*. But if there is a slight glimmer of hope to this rapidly fading season, it's that we've seen Matt Cassel deliver in the clutch before. Let's go back to last season's lowest moment. The Chiefs are getting boatraced 35-10 in denver at the half. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong for the Chiefs, including Matt Cassel's awful performance. We're now staring dropping from 3-0 to 5-4 in the face, getting embarrassed at our hated rival's hands, and dropping into a tie for first with oakland and San Diego.
(*: for reference, the only three people in life I have ever noted are "dead to me", mafia style, are Matt Cassel, Tony Muser, and "Deadbeat Ex Roommate". Matt, buddy -- that is NOT good company you are keeping.)
Here is Cassel's performance from that point forward (source: espn.com box scores):
* 2nd half at denver (19-13 Chiefs advantage): 21/37 (57%), 303 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
* vs Arizona (Chiefs W 31-13): 15/24 (63%), 193 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 115.5 rating.
* at Seattle (Chiefs W 42-24): 22/32 (69%), 233 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 129.3 rating.
* vs denver (Chiefs W 10-6): 17/31 (55%), 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 84.9 rating.
* at St. Louis (Chiefs W 27-13): 15/29 (52%), 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 68.8 rating (1).
* vs Tennessee (Chiefs W 34-14): 24/34 (71%), 314 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 128.8 rating (2).
Average: 21/34 (62%), 259 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 105.5 rating.
Oh, and 5.5 "wins", 0 losses.
(1): first game back from appendectomy 11 days earlier.
(2): clinched AFC West championship.
When the Chiefs HAD to have clutch play last season, Cassel delivered, winning 5 straight starts, propelling the Chiefs to their first divisional championship since 2003. Whatever issues I may have with Cassel, the stats don't lie -- when the Chiefs HAD to have clutch play at quarterback, they got it. When the Chiefs HAD to win a ballgame, they did it, with Cassel under center.
Now, were the broncos, Cardinals, and Titans god-awful teams last year? Yes. If the Chiefs and those teams met on a neutral field in Wichita ten times, I would expect the Chiefs to win 10 times. But winning at Seattle is nothing to laugh about -- ask the New Orleans Saints or the San Diego Chargers. Winning in St. Louis is nothing to laugh at either -- ask the Chargers, whose loss at the Dome cost them the division title.
Beginning Sunday, Cassel faces another stretch of games where, if the Chiefs are to be successful on the field and climb back into title contention, Cassel has to be the difference-maker. He also, perhaps most importantly, faces a stretch of very winnable games, and that includes Sunday's tilt at the Q. We know from last year that he CAN do it, that he CAN rally the Chiefs and lead us back into contention for a playoff berth and a division championship. CAN he do it, is not the question.
WILL he do it, THAT is the question.
If you put a gun to my head and made me wager my existance on the answer to that question, I'd say "no". But like the rest of you, I'll be tuned in, praying that I'm wrong. Because no matter how negative, angry, irate, frustrated, or embarrassed as a Chiefs fan I might feel today ... I'm still a Chiefs fan. That negativity, anger, rage, frustration, and embarrassment comes from the fact that I love these guys. I love the Red and Gold. (I'm also on the hook for another seven games, son of a ...) I know virtually everyone else reading this does too. Let's hope that blind support gets rewarded come 6ish Sunday night ...
Monday, September 19, 2011
scott, meet stevo. he's pissed at you.
Chiefs fans, we need a distraction ... ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Conway Twitty!!!
----------------------
I know that in depressing times such as these, that you turn to me, to this blog, to somehow put everything into perspective, to offer some soothing “words of comfort” that make things seem not quite as ugly as they appear to be.
This week, I got nothing. Yes, we really did just lose by 45 points to the Detroit Lions. Yes, the Chiefs have lost four consecutive games that count, all by at least 21 points. Yes, for the first time, the doubts about this coach, his plan, and this administration and it’s plan, are beginning to be read in the mainstream media.
So if you’re looking for more doom and gloom … you’re not going to get it here. I, for one, am angry. Scratch that – I am furious right now. And what you’re about to get is a post I should have submitted six months ago, but waited to get up due to giving someone the benefit of the doubt.
In the words of Roberto Duran, “no mas”.
Like I said, I am p*ssed off right now. Look it, I don’t care that the Chiefs quit on that field yesterday. They freaking quit. And you know what? I don’t care. I don’t care that our head coach is the laughing stock of the professional football world right now. I don’t care that this team looks worse literally every time they step on the field. I don’t care that the defense is getting burned like a joint at a Ben Harper concert. I don’t care that the offensive game plan defies all logic and common sense*. I don’t even care that special teams decisions seem to be being made based on flipping a f*cking coin, heads we try, tails we quit.
(*: this part is an out-right lie. I am the guy who in 2007 bought a piñata, put pictures of Mike Solari all over it, and brought said piñata and a tire iron to the Bengals tailgate, so that anyone and everyone could “talk” to “Mike” and let him know what they thought of his gameplanning. There’s a damned good chance you might get a chance to “meet and greet Bill Muir” at the Vikings game. I hate every damned thing about this offense.)
I don’t even care that yesterday was our Five Forks. Yesterday, the lines broke, the enemy stormed the trenches, and I’m looking at the capital burning to the ground as I type*. Yesterday was season over. Spare me the “well, if the Chiefs upset San Diego, and Minnesota and Indy are on tap” bullsh*t. This team, right now, couldn’t defeat the Kansas Jayhawks on a neutral field. And KU gave up 800 yards of offense on Saturday. This team, right now, couldn’t get 180 against Kansas, let alone beat them. We stink worse than a tuna melt sitting in the sun for a week. We effing reek.
(*: I don’t get my recent obsession with the final battles of the Civil War either. I go through phases where my interest is sparked, what can I say.)
NONE of that is what has me angry. What has me infuriated, is that there’s not one damned reason left to play this season. Not one good or positive thing can come from the 2011 Chiefs season, as the roster is currently constructed.
Because there’s no potential franchise savior at the quarterback position on the roster.
I ranted for 10 plus pages on Draft Night that the pick HAD to be Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett. I laid out in detail why I felt as strongly as I did about using a draft choice on Ryan Mallett. Four times, this potential franchise savior fell to the Chiefs and our illustrious general manager. All four times, the Chiefs passed:
* at 21, the Chiefs traded back, allowing the Browns to move up, and picking up an extra 3rd rounder for our considerations. I had no complaints with this “passing” of Mallett, because he was a virtual certainty to still be there at 26.
* at 26, the Chiefs drafted Jonathan Baldwin, who hasn’t stepped foot on the field for a single down yet, broke his hand in a brawl with a teammate, and was rated at best as a third-round project. Yes folks, we passed on drafting a potential franchise QB for the first time in franchise history for a malcontent, useless wide receiver.
* at 55, the Chiefs passed on Ryan Mallett to draft a backup center who likely won’t see significant playing time until 2013. Brilliant.
* at 70,the pick acquired from Cleveland for moving back five spots the day before, the Chiefs proved that character doesn’t matter, that (alleged) drug use doesn’t matter (damning their one semi-legitimate reason for not drafting Mallett) by drafting a linebacker who FLUNKED A DRUG TEST AT THE COMBINE! If you think Ryan Mallett has character issues, well, re-read my defense of him. If you think drafting a linebacker who tested positive for weed EVEN THOUGH HE KNEW HE WOULD BE TESTED was a smart decision, you need a lobotomy.
Three picks later, Bill Belichick drafted Ryan Mallett, basically ensuring that the Patriots dynasty will extend another fifteen years. Just like Green Bay pouncing on Aaron Rodgers in 2005 when he was in free fall. There’s a novel idea – a potential franchise QB has landed in your lap, why not take him, say “thank you” to the 31 other morons running a team in this league, and laugh all the way to the bank? God above. There’s a reason why the Green Bay’s, the New England’s, the Pittsburgh’s of the world are always on top, and the Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since I was a junior in high school. And I turn 35 on Wild Card Week this January.
I am furious, because had the Chiefs done the right thing and drafted Ryan Mallett, at least we’d still have a reason to hope. With Ryan Mallett on the roster, at least something might have been salvaged from this season. Now? We got nothing. 2011 is a complete and total waste in every sense of the word.
(And spare me the “well, we can see what we have in Ricky Stanzi” crap. We already KNOW what we have in Ricky Stanzi. It’s what we have in Matt Cassel – a credible backup who has no business starting on a team aiming to win a Super Bowl. I don’t need to see Ricky Stanzi play to figure that out. Why? BECAUSE YOU DON’T FIND FRANCHISE QUARTERBACKS ON DAY THREE OF THE DRAFT! Does Scott Pioli think that because he’s the only GM in history to luck into one on day three, that means he can replicate it again? It’s happened ONCE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. The League has been around for 92 years! Once in 92 years, and you think you can do it again? Christ, I pray that isn’t the case. If it is, we are more f*cked than I already fear we are.)
For that, Scott Pioli should be held accountable. If Todd Haley is shown the door, Scott Pioli damned well better be given a pink slip too. It was Scott Pioli who hired Todd Haley four years ago, despite Mike Shanahan begging to be employed here. It was Scott Pioli who gambled that a career backup who couldn’t lead a team that just went 16-0 back to the playoffs was a “franchise quarterback”. It is Scott Pioli who foolishly drafted Tyson Jackson, it is Scott Pioli who didn’t spend $30 million in cap room this offseason to build some depth, and it is Scott Pioli who should take the fall if and when a change comes to One Arrowhead Drive.
Let there be no doubt Chiefs fans – this season is COMPLETELY and TOTALLY on the shoulders of Scott Pioli. It is NOONE else’s fault. I do not blame Todd Haley – you can only coach the players you’ve got. If your GM fails miserably at his job, you’re destined to fail at yours. I do not blame Matt Cassel. Cassel is what I knew he was, a suitable backup, a decent spot starter, someone who you can probably win ten games with if everything falls right. In the words of Bill Walsh, “he’s just good enough to get you beat”. That is a perfect description for Matt Cassel. He will have stretches of brilliance, where you begin to get excited, and then, he will have stretches like his last four games, where he basically sheds his uniform to reveal he’s in a clown suit, and all you want to do is punch him in his bright red poofy nose.
I don’t blame the coordinators. Bill Muir is in over his head, but at this point, why not see if he can grow into the job. Poor Romeo Crennel – the key to everything we do defensively is Eric Berry. Scott Pioli’s refusal to acquire quality depth at the safety position has Romeo stuck starting Sabby Piscitelli. I don’t know who thought signing Sabby Piscitelli as a free agent was a good idea, but that guy better get a swift kick in the ass, out the back door, right behind Scott Pioli when this Pioli-authored abortion of a season draws to a merciful close at fake mile high four months from now.
I can already hear some of you, specifically “The Voice of Reason”, shaking your heads and saying “Stevo, calm down, you’re overreacting”. And my response is, HELL YES I AM OVERREACTING!
NO Chiefs team in franchise HISTORY has been worse over a four game stretch than this current Chiefs team. Let that sink in – this roster, built by Scott Pioli, foolishly un-reinforced by Scott Pioli, and proclaimed a “championship contender” by Scott Pioli, has just posted the worst “month” of football in franchise history. The Chiefs have NEVER been outscored as much in a four game stretch, as they just have been. And they had an entire offseason serving as halftime of the “month”! We have given up at least 30 points in our last four games. We have not scored more than one touchdown in these last four games. Every game gets worse – lose by 21 to oakland, 23 to Baltimore, 34 to Buffalo, and in what basically amounts to someone squatting and taking a sh*t where you sleep, losing by 45 to Detroit! How in the name of God do you lose by 45 to the Detroit f*cking Lions? HOW? You call it overreacting, I call it a common sense reaction to what we are watching unfold!
I am furious, and my rage is aimed squarely at the architect of this mess.
The good news is … well Christ, you find some, because I sure as hell can’t. The Chiefs are dead in the water, and it’s not even officially fall yet. Let that sink in Chiefs fans – this season is for all intents and purposes OVER BEFORE THE END OF SUMMER! Thank you, Scott Pioli, for this disaster you created. You make me want to vomit.
Am I overreacting? Hell to the mother f*cking yes I am overreacting! My question is, why is nobody at One Arrowhead Drive doing the same? Do they not care? Do they not give a sh*t about being used as the league’s port-a-potty? Christ, we still have three national TV appearances to go! You would think someone, anyone, would be doing something to try to avoid this franchise becoming a national embarrassment along the lines of … well, along the lines of the team that just beat us by 45 points yesterday!
Overreacting? God forbid! God forbid anyone with a pulse start pointing out the obvious! This season is LOST! It is OVER! Don’t delude yourself into thinking one upset can spark a turn-around. Say it with me, please, because acceptance is the final stage of grief. THIS SEASON IS OVER! The only thing left to occur is for some pedophile in a frock to give the last rites, and pull the sheet over the head of the patient. This season is dead, done, finished. Over.
There is only one thing left that could possibly make 2011 worth playing out the string for. And that is if Scott Pioli admits he f*cked up, and goes crawling hat-in-hand to Bill Belichick, and works out compensation to send Ryan Mallett to Kansas City.
This needs to happen YESTERDAY. Actually, it needed to happen six f*cking months ago, and it wouldn’t have cost us anything other than $.02 for the pencil and index card to write “Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas” on said index card with said pencil. OK, maybe $.04, I assume we’d use a mechanical pencil instead of the cheap stub you get at a baseball game to keep score with. But still. That is the ONLY thing left that can salvage this season.
Do it Scott. Get on the phone, offer up a conditional fourth, a conditional third, Christ, offer your firstborn son and a package of Doritos, and undo the biggest mistake of your career. Scott, buddy, pal, look it, my previous four pages of b*tching aside, I do think you are a competent general manager.
But for God’s sake man, you screwed the pooch on the Ryan Mallett mistake. There is still time to fix said mistake. Do it. Trade for Mallett, give him six weeks to learn the playbook, learn the offense. He splits 50/50 with Cassel in practice. And then, on November 6th, he is installed as the starter for the final nine games of the season. By January 1st, you will know beyond the shadow of a doubt if I’m right, and Ryan Mallett is going to be a superstar in this league … or if I’m wrong. And if I am wrong Scott? WHO CARES! You’d go 1-15* and could draft Andrew Luck (who I do NOT like one bit, but whatever.)
(*: until we lose, I will always believe we will beat denver at home. Again – I can live with 1-15, as long as the 1 is denver at home. And yes, for the second time in four years, I am SCARED TO DEATH that statement may become a reality come January 1st.)
Scotty, buddy, what irritates me more than anything, is that passing on Ryan Mallett was so damned predictable, that I guaranteed in my verbal fellating of the Arkansas QB that we’d do it. Because it’s the classic Chiefs move. The Chiefs NEVER take a chance on greatness! They NEVER take an opportunity to draft someone special at the quarterback position, not if some third-rate reject like Ricky Stanzi is available in round five (or six, I have no clue what round we picked him in. But I know it was post-fourth round. Because you ALWAYS find franchise QBs available with an hour to go in the draft. Yeah, THAT’S a proven, winning strategory. Jesus, passing on Mallett is the obvious Chiefs play. Why draft Aaron Rodgers when he falls in your lap when instead, you can draft a safe pick (linebacker Derrick Johnson) and then target Brodie Croyle in the third round a year later? Why hold onto a first round pick in 2001 and use it to draft the sliding Drew Brees, when you can send that pick to St. Louis for a quarterback coming back from two blown knees?* Why draft Dan Marino or Jim Kelly when Todd Blackledge is on the board?
(*: in fairness to Carl, this trade worked out fairly well. But still, would you rather have Drew Brees over the last 11 years … or Trent Green and what’s come after him? Yeah, thought so.)
Passing on Mallett for a beat up WR who can’t get on the field and brawls with his teammates, a lineman who can’t beat out Casey Weigmann for playing time, and a linebacker who smokes more than “The Self Proclaimed Champ”, that is genius. Pure genius! It’s like if I went to the Eclipse, managed to strike up a conversation with the only attractive chick in the joint, spend a successful 2, 2 ½ hours getting her interested in me, and then, when the joint is closing down and as, in the words of Semisonic, “you don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here” time arrives, I decide “nope, she’s too good for me”, and ask the 55 year old chain smoker who’s missing her upper teeth, has stringy hair, and reeks from a foul odor to share a ride home with me. It’s effing retarded. It’s stupid. That, Scott Pioli, is what passing on Ryan Mallett last April was: retarded. Stupid. Beyond indefensible.
If you want positive, uplifting, hopeful, look elsewhere. Because until and unless the brain trust at One Arrowhead Drive realizes we do NOT have a franchise quarterback on the roster, 10-6 and losing by 23 at home in the playoffs is this team’s ceiling. And I, for one, am getting god*mned sick and tired of hitting the ceiling …
----------------------
I know that in depressing times such as these, that you turn to me, to this blog, to somehow put everything into perspective, to offer some soothing “words of comfort” that make things seem not quite as ugly as they appear to be.
This week, I got nothing. Yes, we really did just lose by 45 points to the Detroit Lions. Yes, the Chiefs have lost four consecutive games that count, all by at least 21 points. Yes, for the first time, the doubts about this coach, his plan, and this administration and it’s plan, are beginning to be read in the mainstream media.
So if you’re looking for more doom and gloom … you’re not going to get it here. I, for one, am angry. Scratch that – I am furious right now. And what you’re about to get is a post I should have submitted six months ago, but waited to get up due to giving someone the benefit of the doubt.
In the words of Roberto Duran, “no mas”.
Like I said, I am p*ssed off right now. Look it, I don’t care that the Chiefs quit on that field yesterday. They freaking quit. And you know what? I don’t care. I don’t care that our head coach is the laughing stock of the professional football world right now. I don’t care that this team looks worse literally every time they step on the field. I don’t care that the defense is getting burned like a joint at a Ben Harper concert. I don’t care that the offensive game plan defies all logic and common sense*. I don’t even care that special teams decisions seem to be being made based on flipping a f*cking coin, heads we try, tails we quit.
(*: this part is an out-right lie. I am the guy who in 2007 bought a piñata, put pictures of Mike Solari all over it, and brought said piñata and a tire iron to the Bengals tailgate, so that anyone and everyone could “talk” to “Mike” and let him know what they thought of his gameplanning. There’s a damned good chance you might get a chance to “meet and greet Bill Muir” at the Vikings game. I hate every damned thing about this offense.)
I don’t even care that yesterday was our Five Forks. Yesterday, the lines broke, the enemy stormed the trenches, and I’m looking at the capital burning to the ground as I type*. Yesterday was season over. Spare me the “well, if the Chiefs upset San Diego, and Minnesota and Indy are on tap” bullsh*t. This team, right now, couldn’t defeat the Kansas Jayhawks on a neutral field. And KU gave up 800 yards of offense on Saturday. This team, right now, couldn’t get 180 against Kansas, let alone beat them. We stink worse than a tuna melt sitting in the sun for a week. We effing reek.
(*: I don’t get my recent obsession with the final battles of the Civil War either. I go through phases where my interest is sparked, what can I say.)
NONE of that is what has me angry. What has me infuriated, is that there’s not one damned reason left to play this season. Not one good or positive thing can come from the 2011 Chiefs season, as the roster is currently constructed.
Because there’s no potential franchise savior at the quarterback position on the roster.
I ranted for 10 plus pages on Draft Night that the pick HAD to be Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett. I laid out in detail why I felt as strongly as I did about using a draft choice on Ryan Mallett. Four times, this potential franchise savior fell to the Chiefs and our illustrious general manager. All four times, the Chiefs passed:
* at 21, the Chiefs traded back, allowing the Browns to move up, and picking up an extra 3rd rounder for our considerations. I had no complaints with this “passing” of Mallett, because he was a virtual certainty to still be there at 26.
* at 26, the Chiefs drafted Jonathan Baldwin, who hasn’t stepped foot on the field for a single down yet, broke his hand in a brawl with a teammate, and was rated at best as a third-round project. Yes folks, we passed on drafting a potential franchise QB for the first time in franchise history for a malcontent, useless wide receiver.
* at 55, the Chiefs passed on Ryan Mallett to draft a backup center who likely won’t see significant playing time until 2013. Brilliant.
* at 70,the pick acquired from Cleveland for moving back five spots the day before, the Chiefs proved that character doesn’t matter, that (alleged) drug use doesn’t matter (damning their one semi-legitimate reason for not drafting Mallett) by drafting a linebacker who FLUNKED A DRUG TEST AT THE COMBINE! If you think Ryan Mallett has character issues, well, re-read my defense of him. If you think drafting a linebacker who tested positive for weed EVEN THOUGH HE KNEW HE WOULD BE TESTED was a smart decision, you need a lobotomy.
Three picks later, Bill Belichick drafted Ryan Mallett, basically ensuring that the Patriots dynasty will extend another fifteen years. Just like Green Bay pouncing on Aaron Rodgers in 2005 when he was in free fall. There’s a novel idea – a potential franchise QB has landed in your lap, why not take him, say “thank you” to the 31 other morons running a team in this league, and laugh all the way to the bank? God above. There’s a reason why the Green Bay’s, the New England’s, the Pittsburgh’s of the world are always on top, and the Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since I was a junior in high school. And I turn 35 on Wild Card Week this January.
I am furious, because had the Chiefs done the right thing and drafted Ryan Mallett, at least we’d still have a reason to hope. With Ryan Mallett on the roster, at least something might have been salvaged from this season. Now? We got nothing. 2011 is a complete and total waste in every sense of the word.
(And spare me the “well, we can see what we have in Ricky Stanzi” crap. We already KNOW what we have in Ricky Stanzi. It’s what we have in Matt Cassel – a credible backup who has no business starting on a team aiming to win a Super Bowl. I don’t need to see Ricky Stanzi play to figure that out. Why? BECAUSE YOU DON’T FIND FRANCHISE QUARTERBACKS ON DAY THREE OF THE DRAFT! Does Scott Pioli think that because he’s the only GM in history to luck into one on day three, that means he can replicate it again? It’s happened ONCE IN LEAGUE HISTORY. The League has been around for 92 years! Once in 92 years, and you think you can do it again? Christ, I pray that isn’t the case. If it is, we are more f*cked than I already fear we are.)
For that, Scott Pioli should be held accountable. If Todd Haley is shown the door, Scott Pioli damned well better be given a pink slip too. It was Scott Pioli who hired Todd Haley four years ago, despite Mike Shanahan begging to be employed here. It was Scott Pioli who gambled that a career backup who couldn’t lead a team that just went 16-0 back to the playoffs was a “franchise quarterback”. It is Scott Pioli who foolishly drafted Tyson Jackson, it is Scott Pioli who didn’t spend $30 million in cap room this offseason to build some depth, and it is Scott Pioli who should take the fall if and when a change comes to One Arrowhead Drive.
Let there be no doubt Chiefs fans – this season is COMPLETELY and TOTALLY on the shoulders of Scott Pioli. It is NOONE else’s fault. I do not blame Todd Haley – you can only coach the players you’ve got. If your GM fails miserably at his job, you’re destined to fail at yours. I do not blame Matt Cassel. Cassel is what I knew he was, a suitable backup, a decent spot starter, someone who you can probably win ten games with if everything falls right. In the words of Bill Walsh, “he’s just good enough to get you beat”. That is a perfect description for Matt Cassel. He will have stretches of brilliance, where you begin to get excited, and then, he will have stretches like his last four games, where he basically sheds his uniform to reveal he’s in a clown suit, and all you want to do is punch him in his bright red poofy nose.
I don’t blame the coordinators. Bill Muir is in over his head, but at this point, why not see if he can grow into the job. Poor Romeo Crennel – the key to everything we do defensively is Eric Berry. Scott Pioli’s refusal to acquire quality depth at the safety position has Romeo stuck starting Sabby Piscitelli. I don’t know who thought signing Sabby Piscitelli as a free agent was a good idea, but that guy better get a swift kick in the ass, out the back door, right behind Scott Pioli when this Pioli-authored abortion of a season draws to a merciful close at fake mile high four months from now.
I can already hear some of you, specifically “The Voice of Reason”, shaking your heads and saying “Stevo, calm down, you’re overreacting”. And my response is, HELL YES I AM OVERREACTING!
NO Chiefs team in franchise HISTORY has been worse over a four game stretch than this current Chiefs team. Let that sink in – this roster, built by Scott Pioli, foolishly un-reinforced by Scott Pioli, and proclaimed a “championship contender” by Scott Pioli, has just posted the worst “month” of football in franchise history. The Chiefs have NEVER been outscored as much in a four game stretch, as they just have been. And they had an entire offseason serving as halftime of the “month”! We have given up at least 30 points in our last four games. We have not scored more than one touchdown in these last four games. Every game gets worse – lose by 21 to oakland, 23 to Baltimore, 34 to Buffalo, and in what basically amounts to someone squatting and taking a sh*t where you sleep, losing by 45 to Detroit! How in the name of God do you lose by 45 to the Detroit f*cking Lions? HOW? You call it overreacting, I call it a common sense reaction to what we are watching unfold!
I am furious, and my rage is aimed squarely at the architect of this mess.
The good news is … well Christ, you find some, because I sure as hell can’t. The Chiefs are dead in the water, and it’s not even officially fall yet. Let that sink in Chiefs fans – this season is for all intents and purposes OVER BEFORE THE END OF SUMMER! Thank you, Scott Pioli, for this disaster you created. You make me want to vomit.
Am I overreacting? Hell to the mother f*cking yes I am overreacting! My question is, why is nobody at One Arrowhead Drive doing the same? Do they not care? Do they not give a sh*t about being used as the league’s port-a-potty? Christ, we still have three national TV appearances to go! You would think someone, anyone, would be doing something to try to avoid this franchise becoming a national embarrassment along the lines of … well, along the lines of the team that just beat us by 45 points yesterday!
Overreacting? God forbid! God forbid anyone with a pulse start pointing out the obvious! This season is LOST! It is OVER! Don’t delude yourself into thinking one upset can spark a turn-around. Say it with me, please, because acceptance is the final stage of grief. THIS SEASON IS OVER! The only thing left to occur is for some pedophile in a frock to give the last rites, and pull the sheet over the head of the patient. This season is dead, done, finished. Over.
There is only one thing left that could possibly make 2011 worth playing out the string for. And that is if Scott Pioli admits he f*cked up, and goes crawling hat-in-hand to Bill Belichick, and works out compensation to send Ryan Mallett to Kansas City.
This needs to happen YESTERDAY. Actually, it needed to happen six f*cking months ago, and it wouldn’t have cost us anything other than $.02 for the pencil and index card to write “Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas” on said index card with said pencil. OK, maybe $.04, I assume we’d use a mechanical pencil instead of the cheap stub you get at a baseball game to keep score with. But still. That is the ONLY thing left that can salvage this season.
Do it Scott. Get on the phone, offer up a conditional fourth, a conditional third, Christ, offer your firstborn son and a package of Doritos, and undo the biggest mistake of your career. Scott, buddy, pal, look it, my previous four pages of b*tching aside, I do think you are a competent general manager.
But for God’s sake man, you screwed the pooch on the Ryan Mallett mistake. There is still time to fix said mistake. Do it. Trade for Mallett, give him six weeks to learn the playbook, learn the offense. He splits 50/50 with Cassel in practice. And then, on November 6th, he is installed as the starter for the final nine games of the season. By January 1st, you will know beyond the shadow of a doubt if I’m right, and Ryan Mallett is going to be a superstar in this league … or if I’m wrong. And if I am wrong Scott? WHO CARES! You’d go 1-15* and could draft Andrew Luck (who I do NOT like one bit, but whatever.)
(*: until we lose, I will always believe we will beat denver at home. Again – I can live with 1-15, as long as the 1 is denver at home. And yes, for the second time in four years, I am SCARED TO DEATH that statement may become a reality come January 1st.)
Scotty, buddy, what irritates me more than anything, is that passing on Ryan Mallett was so damned predictable, that I guaranteed in my verbal fellating of the Arkansas QB that we’d do it. Because it’s the classic Chiefs move. The Chiefs NEVER take a chance on greatness! They NEVER take an opportunity to draft someone special at the quarterback position, not if some third-rate reject like Ricky Stanzi is available in round five (or six, I have no clue what round we picked him in. But I know it was post-fourth round. Because you ALWAYS find franchise QBs available with an hour to go in the draft. Yeah, THAT’S a proven, winning strategory. Jesus, passing on Mallett is the obvious Chiefs play. Why draft Aaron Rodgers when he falls in your lap when instead, you can draft a safe pick (linebacker Derrick Johnson) and then target Brodie Croyle in the third round a year later? Why hold onto a first round pick in 2001 and use it to draft the sliding Drew Brees, when you can send that pick to St. Louis for a quarterback coming back from two blown knees?* Why draft Dan Marino or Jim Kelly when Todd Blackledge is on the board?
(*: in fairness to Carl, this trade worked out fairly well. But still, would you rather have Drew Brees over the last 11 years … or Trent Green and what’s come after him? Yeah, thought so.)
Passing on Mallett for a beat up WR who can’t get on the field and brawls with his teammates, a lineman who can’t beat out Casey Weigmann for playing time, and a linebacker who smokes more than “The Self Proclaimed Champ”, that is genius. Pure genius! It’s like if I went to the Eclipse, managed to strike up a conversation with the only attractive chick in the joint, spend a successful 2, 2 ½ hours getting her interested in me, and then, when the joint is closing down and as, in the words of Semisonic, “you don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here” time arrives, I decide “nope, she’s too good for me”, and ask the 55 year old chain smoker who’s missing her upper teeth, has stringy hair, and reeks from a foul odor to share a ride home with me. It’s effing retarded. It’s stupid. That, Scott Pioli, is what passing on Ryan Mallett last April was: retarded. Stupid. Beyond indefensible.
If you want positive, uplifting, hopeful, look elsewhere. Because until and unless the brain trust at One Arrowhead Drive realizes we do NOT have a franchise quarterback on the roster, 10-6 and losing by 23 at home in the playoffs is this team’s ceiling. And I, for one, am getting god*mned sick and tired of hitting the ceiling …
Friday, September 16, 2011
the week two picks
Last Week ATS: 6-9-1. Oh yeah, bad gambling's back baybee!
Season to Date ATS: 6-9-1.
Last Week SU: 7-9-0. That's the awful prognosticator y'all know and love!
Season to Date SU: 7-9-0.
Last Week Upset of the Week ATS: winner!
Last Week Upset of the Week SU: loser!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 1-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-1.
This Week's Upset of the Week: "take a mother f*cking guess"
The Games of Peak Interest to Other Folks:
* Packers (-9) 35, at Panthers 13. For those ready to ride Cam Newton, never forget: Ryan Leaf opened 2-0 as a starter.
* at Bills (-3) 24, raiders 20. Smells like a field goal game, have to bump the margin to 4 for spread wagering purposes.
* Bucs (+3) 31, at Vikings 20. How the hell are the Vikings favored?
* at Saints (-7) 38, Bears 10. Feels like a layup comfy victory for the Saints.
* at Colts (+2 1/2) 3, Browns 0. Your "Good Times Game o' The Week!" Dynomite!
* at Redskins (-4) 20, Cardinals 13. Could be a sneaky good noon game.
* at 49ers (+3) 24, Cowboys 17. Glad I wasn't on the Romo Recovery Bandwagon this year.
* Texans (-3) 21, at Dolphins 14. I have zero confidence in this pick.
* at Patriots 34, Chargers (+7) 31. Smells like an overtime classic.
* Ravens (-6) 27, at Titans 20. Too bad Brian Billick doesn't have the call on this one. Banshee alert!
* Bengals (+4) 17, at broncos 10. One down, fifteen to go to immortality, denver! You can do it!!!
* at Steelers (-14) 45, Seahawks 3. And the NFL assigned Bill Leavy to officiate this one. I love Goodell's sense of humor sometimes.
* Eagles (-2 1/2) 24, at Falcons 20. Tremendous Sunday nighter. Tremendous.
* Rams (+4 1/2) 31, at Giants 20. Horrendous Monday nighter. Horrendous.
The Gang Green Prediction:
* at Jets (-9) 31, Jaguars 20. The Jets better win this one -- the next three are at raiders / at Ravens / at Patriots. Not much history between these two teams. Jets beat the Jags in their only postseason meeting, in the divisional round in 1998. Jags won the last meeting, at the Real Meadowlands two years ago, a defeat that nearly (and should have) cost the Jets a playoff berth. Here's to hoping the Jets take this one a little more seriously than that took the Cowboys game. Again, look at those next three. That is just about the most brutal three game roadie imaginable -- the raiders home opener (and they're much, much better than I thought they would be), the Ravens in prime time, and at the hated Patriots in the national 3:15 CBS slot.
The Chiefs "Upset of the Week" Prognostication:
I don't often pick the Chiefs as the Upset of the Week.
Mainly because, when we're underdogs, it's usually for a rock solid reason. For example, the 2007 Chiefs were horrendous. The 2008 Chiefs were underdogs in every game they played, and went 2-14. 2-14! I'll never forget that season, if only for two reasons:
a. we whipped denver's ass eight ways from Sunday on that magical final Sunday in September. And
b. we whipped denver's ass eight ways from Sunday on that magical final Sunday in September!
(Note: when whipping denver's ass eight ways from Sunday is the highlight of your season ... you know what? I'm good with it. That day was that awesome, right down to the ex-roommate openly taunting denver fans leaving in darrent williams jerseys, asking "how'd your boy do today!" I love drunken postgame tailgating sometimes. Especially after whipping denver's ass eight ways from Sunday. November 13th can't get here soon enough! Oh wait, it can -- I'm not ready for this cold weather yet. Seriously, it was “t-shirts not needed!” hot on Sunday, and it’s not even 53 degrees outside right now! How? How the hell does this happen? I hate every season other than summer. Ok, back to the “you’re damned right we’re whipping some Lions ass this week!” pep talk …)
The 2009 Chiefs? Another level of awful. We were favored in one game all season, and lost (against oakland at home, and we were demolished, 23-8). Then came last season, when we were favored more often than not, but in what turned out to be the second biggest game of the season (behind only the playoff game), we were a nine point underdog to the San Diego "Super" Chargers.
Nine point underdogs. To an overvalued, overrated, overhyped squad that had achieved nothing of consequence on the football field. Sound familiar? It should, because once again, the Red and Gold is a nine point underdog to an overvalued, overrated, overhyped squad that has achieved NOTHING of consequence on the football field.
And just like on that amazing Monday night virtually one year ago, the Chiefs will not only cover the spread, they will win outright on Sunday. Unlike that Chargers Monday nighter from last year though, we will win in convincing, no doubt about it fashion this time.
I love how the media is making such a big deal about the Lions winning their last five games that count. La de f*cking da. Look at who those five wins are against -- they beat the Bucs twice (not exactly a juggernaut), beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, beat a Dolphins team (in Miami) that went 1-7 at home, and beat a 6-9 Vikings team. I would hope -- scratch that, I would EXPECT -- any team to be able to navigate that "difficult" stretch in the schedule. I mean, really? On the basis of beating a backup QB, a team starting Joe Webb at QB, a team starting Chad Henne at QB, and a Bucs team so "beloved" by the local fanbase that they haven't sold out a game in three years, on the basis of that, we're supposed to fear these guys? They’re the 9 point favorite? Screw that!
I firmly believe that Todd Haley will come up with an offensive game plan to drop 30 on these guys. I completely believe that Romeo Crennel will come up with a gameplan to confuse and befuddle the Lions offense. And if there is ANYTHING I believe in more than that, it's that Gunther Cunningham will blitz too much, and the Chiefs will take huge advantage of it.
Remember what I said in the season-long predictions. That moment at the Wilderness, when Grant finally reached his breaking point with his generals, and screamed "it's time we start talking about what we're gonna do to General Lee!" Like Grant, I am sick and tired of hearing the negative. Detroit? What can they do to us? They're the damned Detroit Lions the last time I checked! It's high time we talk about what Tamba Hali is gonna do to them, not what Ndamakung Suh wishes he could do to us. It's about time we talk about how Jamaal Charles is gonna drop 165 with 2 touchdowns on their defense, rather than what Jahvid Best dreams about doing to us.
We are winning this game. I am staking my reputation as the blogosphere's worst prognosticator on that statement. We ARE winning this game!
Chiefs (+9) 31, Lions 13. Make sure there's plenty of room in the inbox on your phone for the best text message of the season, the moment 2011 officially becomes a race for the trophy. Because come 3:30ish on Sunday afternoon, believe, expect, demand you get the best three word text message out of me you'll ever get, and it ain't "wanna hook up". Three words that define a never-give-up mentality, a belief that this franchise can achieve greatness, a tradition that started after the season-saving win five years ago against the Chargers at Arrowhead, in the jubilation of winning on a 53 yard field goal as time expired.
"Season f*cking on!"
Come 3:30ish on Sunday, it will DEFINITELY be on ...
Season to Date ATS: 6-9-1.
Last Week SU: 7-9-0. That's the awful prognosticator y'all know and love!
Season to Date SU: 7-9-0.
Last Week Upset of the Week ATS: winner!
Last Week Upset of the Week SU: loser!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 1-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-1.
This Week's Upset of the Week: "take a mother f*cking guess"
The Games of Peak Interest to Other Folks:
* Packers (-9) 35, at Panthers 13. For those ready to ride Cam Newton, never forget: Ryan Leaf opened 2-0 as a starter.
* at Bills (-3) 24, raiders 20. Smells like a field goal game, have to bump the margin to 4 for spread wagering purposes.
* Bucs (+3) 31, at Vikings 20. How the hell are the Vikings favored?
* at Saints (-7) 38, Bears 10. Feels like a layup comfy victory for the Saints.
* at Colts (+2 1/2) 3, Browns 0. Your "Good Times Game o' The Week!" Dynomite!
* at Redskins (-4) 20, Cardinals 13. Could be a sneaky good noon game.
* at 49ers (+3) 24, Cowboys 17. Glad I wasn't on the Romo Recovery Bandwagon this year.
* Texans (-3) 21, at Dolphins 14. I have zero confidence in this pick.
* at Patriots 34, Chargers (+7) 31. Smells like an overtime classic.
* Ravens (-6) 27, at Titans 20. Too bad Brian Billick doesn't have the call on this one. Banshee alert!
* Bengals (+4) 17, at broncos 10. One down, fifteen to go to immortality, denver! You can do it!!!
* at Steelers (-14) 45, Seahawks 3. And the NFL assigned Bill Leavy to officiate this one. I love Goodell's sense of humor sometimes.
* Eagles (-2 1/2) 24, at Falcons 20. Tremendous Sunday nighter. Tremendous.
* Rams (+4 1/2) 31, at Giants 20. Horrendous Monday nighter. Horrendous.
The Gang Green Prediction:
* at Jets (-9) 31, Jaguars 20. The Jets better win this one -- the next three are at raiders / at Ravens / at Patriots. Not much history between these two teams. Jets beat the Jags in their only postseason meeting, in the divisional round in 1998. Jags won the last meeting, at the Real Meadowlands two years ago, a defeat that nearly (and should have) cost the Jets a playoff berth. Here's to hoping the Jets take this one a little more seriously than that took the Cowboys game. Again, look at those next three. That is just about the most brutal three game roadie imaginable -- the raiders home opener (and they're much, much better than I thought they would be), the Ravens in prime time, and at the hated Patriots in the national 3:15 CBS slot.
The Chiefs "Upset of the Week" Prognostication:
I don't often pick the Chiefs as the Upset of the Week.
Mainly because, when we're underdogs, it's usually for a rock solid reason. For example, the 2007 Chiefs were horrendous. The 2008 Chiefs were underdogs in every game they played, and went 2-14. 2-14! I'll never forget that season, if only for two reasons:
a. we whipped denver's ass eight ways from Sunday on that magical final Sunday in September. And
b. we whipped denver's ass eight ways from Sunday on that magical final Sunday in September!
(Note: when whipping denver's ass eight ways from Sunday is the highlight of your season ... you know what? I'm good with it. That day was that awesome, right down to the ex-roommate openly taunting denver fans leaving in darrent williams jerseys, asking "how'd your boy do today!" I love drunken postgame tailgating sometimes. Especially after whipping denver's ass eight ways from Sunday. November 13th can't get here soon enough! Oh wait, it can -- I'm not ready for this cold weather yet. Seriously, it was “t-shirts not needed!” hot on Sunday, and it’s not even 53 degrees outside right now! How? How the hell does this happen? I hate every season other than summer. Ok, back to the “you’re damned right we’re whipping some Lions ass this week!” pep talk …)
The 2009 Chiefs? Another level of awful. We were favored in one game all season, and lost (against oakland at home, and we were demolished, 23-8). Then came last season, when we were favored more often than not, but in what turned out to be the second biggest game of the season (behind only the playoff game), we were a nine point underdog to the San Diego "Super" Chargers.
Nine point underdogs. To an overvalued, overrated, overhyped squad that had achieved nothing of consequence on the football field. Sound familiar? It should, because once again, the Red and Gold is a nine point underdog to an overvalued, overrated, overhyped squad that has achieved NOTHING of consequence on the football field.
And just like on that amazing Monday night virtually one year ago, the Chiefs will not only cover the spread, they will win outright on Sunday. Unlike that Chargers Monday nighter from last year though, we will win in convincing, no doubt about it fashion this time.
I love how the media is making such a big deal about the Lions winning their last five games that count. La de f*cking da. Look at who those five wins are against -- they beat the Bucs twice (not exactly a juggernaut), beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, beat a Dolphins team (in Miami) that went 1-7 at home, and beat a 6-9 Vikings team. I would hope -- scratch that, I would EXPECT -- any team to be able to navigate that "difficult" stretch in the schedule. I mean, really? On the basis of beating a backup QB, a team starting Joe Webb at QB, a team starting Chad Henne at QB, and a Bucs team so "beloved" by the local fanbase that they haven't sold out a game in three years, on the basis of that, we're supposed to fear these guys? They’re the 9 point favorite? Screw that!
I firmly believe that Todd Haley will come up with an offensive game plan to drop 30 on these guys. I completely believe that Romeo Crennel will come up with a gameplan to confuse and befuddle the Lions offense. And if there is ANYTHING I believe in more than that, it's that Gunther Cunningham will blitz too much, and the Chiefs will take huge advantage of it.
Remember what I said in the season-long predictions. That moment at the Wilderness, when Grant finally reached his breaking point with his generals, and screamed "it's time we start talking about what we're gonna do to General Lee!" Like Grant, I am sick and tired of hearing the negative. Detroit? What can they do to us? They're the damned Detroit Lions the last time I checked! It's high time we talk about what Tamba Hali is gonna do to them, not what Ndamakung Suh wishes he could do to us. It's about time we talk about how Jamaal Charles is gonna drop 165 with 2 touchdowns on their defense, rather than what Jahvid Best dreams about doing to us.
We are winning this game. I am staking my reputation as the blogosphere's worst prognosticator on that statement. We ARE winning this game!
Chiefs (+9) 31, Lions 13. Make sure there's plenty of room in the inbox on your phone for the best text message of the season, the moment 2011 officially becomes a race for the trophy. Because come 3:30ish on Sunday afternoon, believe, expect, demand you get the best three word text message out of me you'll ever get, and it ain't "wanna hook up". Three words that define a never-give-up mentality, a belief that this franchise can achieve greatness, a tradition that started after the season-saving win five years ago against the Chargers at Arrowhead, in the jubilation of winning on a 53 yard field goal as time expired.
"Season f*cking on!"
Come 3:30ish on Sunday, it will DEFINITELY be on ...
Thursday, September 15, 2011
manana, the week dos predictions.
Until then, I got nothing, other than, believe. Just believe.
Hey! Shortest post ever!
Hey! Shortest post ever!
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
don't panic. yet.
Troy Brown.
Ever since the pole-axing by the Bills on Sunday, and the doubts about Eric Berry’s availability were confirmed, I’ve been thinking of one thing.
Troy Brown.
Look it, the easiest thing in the world to do after an ass whipping like Sunday was, is to go into full-fledged panic mode. Who amongst us hasn’t said some variation of the phrase “sweet Jesus, are we REALLY this bad?!?!” at some point in the last 48 hours? God knows I have. And who amongst us hasn’t ripped the gameplan, ripped the effort, and flat-out declared Matt Cassel “dead to me”, pure mafia style, in the last 48 hours? OK, so maybe I’m the only one to go that far with Cassel. But still.
If you’re ready to panic, jump ship, give up hope, because two of (arguably) our five most important players are out for the season*, I offer two words of comfort to you.
Troy Brown.
(*: I’d argue our 8 most important players, in order of least to most important, are Moeaki, Justin Houston (who draws his first start on Sunday*), Flowers, Carr, Cassel, DJ, Berry, and Charles. If you want to make it a top ten, toss D Bowe in there at 9, and Kendrick Lewis, who I believe is the answer now at safety, at 10.)
(*: and yes, I put Houston ahead of Hali. Hali is rock solid no matter what. Houston, we need to make Tamba even better.)
I’m sure some of you at this point are asking three questions, having read this far:
1. Who the hell is Troy Brown?
2. Why isn’t Stevo in full fledged panic mode like I am? And
3. Who the hell is Troy Brown?
Savvy NFL fans will recognize that name. A Pro Bowl wide receiver for the New England Patriots, a vital contributor to their offense throughout the Super Bowl runs of the early and mid 2000s, and a borderline Hall of Fame candidate who’ll probably eventually get in sometime in the late 2010s / early 2020s.
He also started, at cornerback, for the Patriots in all three postseason victories in 2004.
Yes folks, a freaking wide receiver played cornerback, that’s how beat up the Patriots were in that final Super Bowl winning push. He covered (or at least attempted to) TO in that Super Bowl. Let that sink in – a freaking wide receiver is not only playing both ways (that’s not all that rare – Deion Sanders did it for years in Dallas), but a freaking wide receiver is starting at cornerback! In the Super Bowl!
The defensive coordinator who made this (at best) ludacris idea work?
Romeo Crennel.
Folks, why are you panicked? Why are you ready to bail on this season after one freaking game? If Romeo Crennel is smart enough to figure out a way to win a Super Bowl with a freaking wide receiver starting on his defense, I’m pretty damned sure he’ll figure out a way to scheme around Eric Berry’s absence. Hell, I’m not pretty damned sure of it, I AM damned sure of it!
So the offense looked like dog crap on Sunday. So what? For as bad as they played, everything that was seriously screwy is EASILY fixable. Ball security is EASILY fixable. Cassel, to his credit, never once tried to force the issue – his only “questionable” pass attempt I saw, was perfectly fine in my book, a bomb to D Bowe on 3rd and 16 that, if picked, is no worse than a punt. That’s when you take risks, is in a no-win spot like that. For all my b*tching about Matt, he did complete 60% of his passes, he didn’t turn the ball over until the outcome was already known (the INT occurred at 34-7), and he didn’t do anything stupid. He managed the game, and isn’t that what we ask him to do?
Jamaal Charles averaged nearly 6 yards a carry. Isn’t that what we ask him to do? It isn’t Jamaal’s fault that our offensive playcaller only called 10 rushing plays for him.
The offensive line didn’t get Cassel killed. I counted two penalties on them – one declined (a hold on Asomoah, again, long after the outcome was known).
As bad as Sunday was, it wasn’t 2008. It wasn’t pull-your-hair-out time, it wasn’t “take a flame-thrower to this place” awful.
And I am going to make the next statement in this posting with every ounce of conviction my years of watching this sport, and my years of loving this team, can allow me to muster.
Sunday is not going to be a competitive football game. The Chiefs are going to dominate this game from start to finish, and are going to blow the Lions out of the building.
For all the fear and loathing setting in, the Chiefs STILL aren’t in that bad of a position. This is a VERY winnable game, and I fully expect that between Todd Haley* and Romeo Crennel, two rock-solid game plans, one on each side of the ball, are going to be cooked up and unveiled come high noon five days from now.
(*: I think we can effectively bury the Bill Muir experiment after one week, can’t we? I mean as a play caller. As an offensive line coach, he’s one of the best, and he’s not a bad coordinator either. He’s just clueless at getting a rhythm going once the game kicks off.)
After this week, not one, not two, but three very winnable games before hitting the bye. The Chargers damned near lost at home to a Vikings team that passed for 38 yards on Sunday. No, that is not a typo, that is not net passing yards, that is the actual amount of yardage Donovan McNabb threw for, and they still nearly won. (To put that in perspective, if you were to walk / jog / run 38 yards, starting at one sideline on the 20, and run along the 20 towards the other sideline? You wouldn’t make it to the other sideline if you only moved 38 yards. Pathetic). Then we get those Vikings, at home, followed up by a (now) extremely winnable roadie at Indianapolis.
And I haven’t been this convinced of a Chiefs road victory, despite ALL evidence to the contrary, since I cleared $300 plus dollars off clueless friends, family, and fellow degenerate gamblers when the 0-3 2004 Chiefs rolled into Baltimore for a Monday night showdown with the 3-0 Ravens. A game highlighted by the final shot, Gunther screaming “f*ck you!” at the Ravens coaching box next to him in sheer triumph at our victory. We ARE winning this game on Sunday. And we’re winning it in woodshed fashion.
I’m curious – do you think Steeler Nation is in full on panic mode this morning? They looked even worse than we did on Sunday. Do you think the Falcons fanbase is quaking in their seats? They got their ass whipped every bit as bad as we did. I would hope they aren’t – both teams are exactly what the Chiefs are: talented teams that are competently coached, competently run, and nowhere near as awful as they looked two days ago.
Some of the changes enacted over the last two days, have me extremely pleased. I LOVE moving Justin Houston into the lineup. As p*ssed as I still am that we passed on Ryan Mallett at 70 … well, if the worst thing I ever compare that decision to is the choice to draft DJ over Aaron Rodgers, you know what? I’ll still be p*ssed. But much like as with Carl’s lowest moment as a GM in my book* … I can live with it.
(*: it’s also the one moment, even in hindsight, that I was TOTALLY smarter than “The Voice of Reason”. Even he has to concede that for one brief flickering moment, that light bulb in my head was shining at full wattage.)
I also have no doubt that Todd Haley will be resuming calling plays. And in the two words that have me avoiding a full on meltdown at this point after what I witnessed on Sunday, “Troy Brown”. Romeo Crennel will have his unit ready to go. (Romeo, some free advice: move Kendrick Lewis into Berry’s spot. He’s not as good, granted … but the kid has great instincts, is always around the ball, and can more than adequately cover the tight end or slot receiver in a surprise passing formation. But please, feel free to ignore me – if you can win a Super Bowl with a freaking wide receiver starting on defense, you are infinitely smarter than I am, and I think when it comes to basic football knowledge, I am much smarter than your average bear.)
Let that sink in, Chiefs fans. Our defensive coordinator submitted a Super Bowl winning (arguably dominating) game plan … with a wide receiver covering the other team’s primary target in the passing game. And you actually have doubts over whether he can overcome the Eric Berry injury to deliver a kick-ass, season-calming victory on Sunday? I still believe. And if you don’t, well, read my thoughts from another time the Chiefs faced a “crisis of conscience” in the fanbase. I was right then. (Chiefs 48, Dolphins 30). I will be proven right again on Sunday.
Ever since the pole-axing by the Bills on Sunday, and the doubts about Eric Berry’s availability were confirmed, I’ve been thinking of one thing.
Troy Brown.
Look it, the easiest thing in the world to do after an ass whipping like Sunday was, is to go into full-fledged panic mode. Who amongst us hasn’t said some variation of the phrase “sweet Jesus, are we REALLY this bad?!?!” at some point in the last 48 hours? God knows I have. And who amongst us hasn’t ripped the gameplan, ripped the effort, and flat-out declared Matt Cassel “dead to me”, pure mafia style, in the last 48 hours? OK, so maybe I’m the only one to go that far with Cassel. But still.
If you’re ready to panic, jump ship, give up hope, because two of (arguably) our five most important players are out for the season*, I offer two words of comfort to you.
Troy Brown.
(*: I’d argue our 8 most important players, in order of least to most important, are Moeaki, Justin Houston (who draws his first start on Sunday*), Flowers, Carr, Cassel, DJ, Berry, and Charles. If you want to make it a top ten, toss D Bowe in there at 9, and Kendrick Lewis, who I believe is the answer now at safety, at 10.)
(*: and yes, I put Houston ahead of Hali. Hali is rock solid no matter what. Houston, we need to make Tamba even better.)
I’m sure some of you at this point are asking three questions, having read this far:
1. Who the hell is Troy Brown?
2. Why isn’t Stevo in full fledged panic mode like I am? And
3. Who the hell is Troy Brown?
Savvy NFL fans will recognize that name. A Pro Bowl wide receiver for the New England Patriots, a vital contributor to their offense throughout the Super Bowl runs of the early and mid 2000s, and a borderline Hall of Fame candidate who’ll probably eventually get in sometime in the late 2010s / early 2020s.
He also started, at cornerback, for the Patriots in all three postseason victories in 2004.
Yes folks, a freaking wide receiver played cornerback, that’s how beat up the Patriots were in that final Super Bowl winning push. He covered (or at least attempted to) TO in that Super Bowl. Let that sink in – a freaking wide receiver is not only playing both ways (that’s not all that rare – Deion Sanders did it for years in Dallas), but a freaking wide receiver is starting at cornerback! In the Super Bowl!
The defensive coordinator who made this (at best) ludacris idea work?
Romeo Crennel.
Folks, why are you panicked? Why are you ready to bail on this season after one freaking game? If Romeo Crennel is smart enough to figure out a way to win a Super Bowl with a freaking wide receiver starting on his defense, I’m pretty damned sure he’ll figure out a way to scheme around Eric Berry’s absence. Hell, I’m not pretty damned sure of it, I AM damned sure of it!
So the offense looked like dog crap on Sunday. So what? For as bad as they played, everything that was seriously screwy is EASILY fixable. Ball security is EASILY fixable. Cassel, to his credit, never once tried to force the issue – his only “questionable” pass attempt I saw, was perfectly fine in my book, a bomb to D Bowe on 3rd and 16 that, if picked, is no worse than a punt. That’s when you take risks, is in a no-win spot like that. For all my b*tching about Matt, he did complete 60% of his passes, he didn’t turn the ball over until the outcome was already known (the INT occurred at 34-7), and he didn’t do anything stupid. He managed the game, and isn’t that what we ask him to do?
Jamaal Charles averaged nearly 6 yards a carry. Isn’t that what we ask him to do? It isn’t Jamaal’s fault that our offensive playcaller only called 10 rushing plays for him.
The offensive line didn’t get Cassel killed. I counted two penalties on them – one declined (a hold on Asomoah, again, long after the outcome was known).
As bad as Sunday was, it wasn’t 2008. It wasn’t pull-your-hair-out time, it wasn’t “take a flame-thrower to this place” awful.
And I am going to make the next statement in this posting with every ounce of conviction my years of watching this sport, and my years of loving this team, can allow me to muster.
Sunday is not going to be a competitive football game. The Chiefs are going to dominate this game from start to finish, and are going to blow the Lions out of the building.
For all the fear and loathing setting in, the Chiefs STILL aren’t in that bad of a position. This is a VERY winnable game, and I fully expect that between Todd Haley* and Romeo Crennel, two rock-solid game plans, one on each side of the ball, are going to be cooked up and unveiled come high noon five days from now.
(*: I think we can effectively bury the Bill Muir experiment after one week, can’t we? I mean as a play caller. As an offensive line coach, he’s one of the best, and he’s not a bad coordinator either. He’s just clueless at getting a rhythm going once the game kicks off.)
After this week, not one, not two, but three very winnable games before hitting the bye. The Chargers damned near lost at home to a Vikings team that passed for 38 yards on Sunday. No, that is not a typo, that is not net passing yards, that is the actual amount of yardage Donovan McNabb threw for, and they still nearly won. (To put that in perspective, if you were to walk / jog / run 38 yards, starting at one sideline on the 20, and run along the 20 towards the other sideline? You wouldn’t make it to the other sideline if you only moved 38 yards. Pathetic). Then we get those Vikings, at home, followed up by a (now) extremely winnable roadie at Indianapolis.
And I haven’t been this convinced of a Chiefs road victory, despite ALL evidence to the contrary, since I cleared $300 plus dollars off clueless friends, family, and fellow degenerate gamblers when the 0-3 2004 Chiefs rolled into Baltimore for a Monday night showdown with the 3-0 Ravens. A game highlighted by the final shot, Gunther screaming “f*ck you!” at the Ravens coaching box next to him in sheer triumph at our victory. We ARE winning this game on Sunday. And we’re winning it in woodshed fashion.
I’m curious – do you think Steeler Nation is in full on panic mode this morning? They looked even worse than we did on Sunday. Do you think the Falcons fanbase is quaking in their seats? They got their ass whipped every bit as bad as we did. I would hope they aren’t – both teams are exactly what the Chiefs are: talented teams that are competently coached, competently run, and nowhere near as awful as they looked two days ago.
Some of the changes enacted over the last two days, have me extremely pleased. I LOVE moving Justin Houston into the lineup. As p*ssed as I still am that we passed on Ryan Mallett at 70 … well, if the worst thing I ever compare that decision to is the choice to draft DJ over Aaron Rodgers, you know what? I’ll still be p*ssed. But much like as with Carl’s lowest moment as a GM in my book* … I can live with it.
(*: it’s also the one moment, even in hindsight, that I was TOTALLY smarter than “The Voice of Reason”. Even he has to concede that for one brief flickering moment, that light bulb in my head was shining at full wattage.)
I also have no doubt that Todd Haley will be resuming calling plays. And in the two words that have me avoiding a full on meltdown at this point after what I witnessed on Sunday, “Troy Brown”. Romeo Crennel will have his unit ready to go. (Romeo, some free advice: move Kendrick Lewis into Berry’s spot. He’s not as good, granted … but the kid has great instincts, is always around the ball, and can more than adequately cover the tight end or slot receiver in a surprise passing formation. But please, feel free to ignore me – if you can win a Super Bowl with a freaking wide receiver starting on defense, you are infinitely smarter than I am, and I think when it comes to basic football knowledge, I am much smarter than your average bear.)
Let that sink in, Chiefs fans. Our defensive coordinator submitted a Super Bowl winning (arguably dominating) game plan … with a wide receiver covering the other team’s primary target in the passing game. And you actually have doubts over whether he can overcome the Eric Berry injury to deliver a kick-ass, season-calming victory on Sunday? I still believe. And if you don’t, well, read my thoughts from another time the Chiefs faced a “crisis of conscience” in the fanbase. I was right then. (Chiefs 48, Dolphins 30). I will be proven right again on Sunday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)