Thursday, September 27, 2012

the week four picks: i'm a fool i guess ...


“Like the fool I am and I’ll always be,
I’ve got a dream.  I’ve got a dream.
They can change their minds, but they can’t change me!
I’ve got a dream!  I’ve got a dream!

Oh, I know I could share it if you want me to.
And if you’re going my way?  I’ll go with you …”


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Last Week SU: 9-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 27-21-0.

Last Week ATS: 11-5-0.
Season to Date ATS: 26-22-0.

Last Week’s “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: those magical five words move to 9-0-0 straight up since 2001.
Season to Date “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: 2-1-0 SU; 2-1-0 ATS.
This Week’s “Screw You Pete King” Upset of the Week: (stevo sighing in abject disgust at the question) take a mother f*cking guess.

The Non-Chiefs, Non-Jets “Fling It And Hope It Sticks” Crappy Guesses:

Byes: Steelers, Colts.  Since “Sur” William Callahan coaches for neither squad, it appears “vs. bye” will open 0-0 this year.  Solid start!

* at Ravens 30, Browns (+11) 27.  Here’s to hoping Satan lets Art Modell tune in to watch the battle of his former franchises.  It’s the least Satan can do, after accepting Art’s soul in exchange for a couple hundred million dollar bribe to move the Browns to Baltimore, after all.

* Bengals (-2 ½) 31, at Jaguars 24.  Please, dude who controls the video board at Arrowhead, please – me, Stevo?  The hot as hell guy in 336, row 8, seat 23?  Yeah, the one every girl in the stadium has their binoculars trained on?  Please, for my sake, when – not if, WHEN – WHEN Ed Hochuli delivers his first fifteen minute explanation of a penalty in this game on Sunday, please, I’m begging you, JIP the call.

* at Bucs (-2 ½) 38, Redskins 24.  There’s plenty of room on the Bucs Bandwagon Express folks.  Right now it’s just me and Greg Schiano on board, and possibly my former boss and her husband.  Plenty of room.  You can even like sit in the second row and everything! 

* Titans (+12) 38, at Texans 34.  It’s simple: if Houston wins this game, the AFC South race is over four weeks into the season.  Houston would be at least two clear of every other divisional rival, and probably three clear, with two divisional wins in hand.  I picked the Titans to win the South.  If they have any shot to do it, they have to spring the upset.

* at Falcons 28, Panthers (+7) 24.  OK, this dumping on Cam Newton is getting really ridiculous.  The kid is 23 years old for Christ’s sake!  What the hell is everyone so up in arms about, that he botches a presser and says a couple questionable statements that “lead to questions about his maturity and leadership skills”.  Jesus, HE’S 23!  When I was 23, I was doing at least 2 of these 4 things every night: (a) drinking heavily, (b) getting high, (c) sitting at a blackjack table, (d) staring like a slack jawed yokel at the never-ending 2000 election results.  Again, AT LEAST 2 of those 4 things every night.  Cam at 23?  Has won a freaking Heisman, a freaking National Championship, has the Panthers as a legitimate playoff threat despite a brain-dead moron coaching them, AND has me beyond geeked up to see in person on December 2nd.  Again, the last time I was this excited to see a visitor enter Arrowhead for the first time, was when the Official Stevo Man Crush of a Lifetime made his first appearance at Arrowhead to open the 2005 season.  Lay off of Cam.  The kid is special.  He’s ridiculously special.  One poorly conducted presser shouldn’t take the focus off his sick talent and potential.

* at Lions (-5) 38, Vikings 13.  Christian Ponder on the road.  Christian Ponder on the road.  Christian Ponder on the road.  Like last week, when 80% of the gambling public convinced themselves the Rams could cover, if not win in Chicago.  Come on people.  Christian!  Ponder!  On!  The!  Road!!!

* at Bills 28, Patriots (-4) 20.  THE toughest game on the board to call.  And honestly, I don’t think I’m picking this right, given my strident belief in that “you never bet against a proven veteran team with its back against the wall”.  But something’s just not right with this Pats team.  From the cockiness of taking two knees to attempt a 40 plus yard field goal against the Cardinals, to the total meltdown in the last 2:20 in Baltimore … something just ain’t right.  I still think that regardless of this game’s outcome, the Pats rally to win the AFC East.  I just think we’re looking at the 1996 / 1998 / 1999 Cowboys all over again – good enough to win a sh*tty division, but do little to no damage once the calendar flips to January.

* at Rams (+2 ½) 27, Seahawks 20.  Let this sink in – if the Jets and Rams hold serve at home, and the Cardinals take care of business against (arguably) the worst team in football at home?  The Cards are TWO CLEAR of the division, with a win over Seattle in hand.  Are we really ready to live in a world where the Arizona “Super” Cardinals are a credible threat to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in five years?

* Saints (+7 ½) 45, at Packers 31.  Speaking of “something just ain’t right about this team”, the Saints and Packers everyone!  The “we’re seriously screwed if we lose this game” extravaganza!  For the Saints, the road to recovery is simple – steal this one on the road, then hold serve at home against the Chargers next Sunday, and bammo!, you’re right back in this thing.  (No need for the “touchdown, onside kick, touchdown, onside kick, touchdown” debacle I am so good at giving up at Madden (insert year here).)  I think they get it done.

* at broncos 13, raiders (+7) 10.  Hey, it’s our first “if terrorists blow the joint up, it’s not a tragedy, it’s a national celebration” Game of the Year!  (kazoo voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!  And hey, before you broncos readers of this post send email hate messages to me – I didn’t come up with the “nuke denver during a football game” dream scenario.  That would be Tom Clancy, in “The Sum of All Fears”.  Aim your hate at him, not me!  (While I aim total and complete love for that scenario in his direction …)

* at Cardinals (-5) 34, Dolphins 3.  Wow, we really are living in a world where laying five on the Cards is automatic.  Unbelievable.  Absolutely unbelievable.  Also, again, as a public service announcement: if you happen to stay in a Super 8 in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area?  Turning on the faucet does NOT drown out the sound of you banging your girl in the bathroom.  Just a heads up for when the Chiefs visit the desert in two years.  Life IS great at Super 8 … but them are some paper thin walls.

* Giants (+2) 27, at Eagles 20.  The second toughest game of the week to call.  Should be a classic.  Kudos to NBC for grabbing this one.  Normally, I rip NBC (and it’s asshat of all trades, “Ol’” Pete King) for their scheduling, but the SNF schedule this year is awesome.  And this game might be the best one they broadcast.  I love me some NFC East grudge matches!

* at Cowboys (+3 ½) 28, Bears 24.  HATE the half point.  (Damned Danny Sheridan at USA Today.  Come on man, cut me a break and give me a push at 3, which is how this game is destined to end).  Two flawed NFC contenders in a huge game that could determine a divisional round home field advantage.  Dallas is slightly less fatally flawed than Chicago.  They get the nod.

The Jets (brett voice) “aw!  shit!” / “We Done Be Screwed” Pick:

I think it’s now appropriate to ask which number will be higher: (a) the number of kids Antonio Cromartie is financially liable for creating, or (b) the number of passes he’ll get burned on as the new top corner for the (fireman ed voice) J!  E! T!  S!  Jets Jets Jets!  I’m leaning (a), since he’s already got nine built in … but I can absolutely see Crabtree, Moss, and Davis lighting him up for 11 catches, 220 yards, and 3 TDs on Sunday.

And yet, as bad as things look without Darrelle Revis until at least next August … it isn’t ALL bad for the Jets.  The non-divisional games are NFC West, AFC South, San Diego (at home on a Sunday nighter), and at Tennessee (on a Monday nighter).  They’re 2-1.  They survived their house of horrors in South Beach.  I still think the Jets can win 9 and be in the cluster f*ck for final team in.  But they need this one to do it.

at Jets (+3 ½) 31, 49ers 27.  Again, I HATE the half point, Mr. Sheridan!  HATE IT!

The Chiefs “Possibly Inspirational Speech” and Prediction:

First, congrats to my buddy Damien, who will be using the “oh my God, why did I agree to sit here?!?!” seat next to me this week.  I’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: if you can sit next to me at a Chiefs game, and still have even 2/1000ths of an ounce of like or respect for me afterwards?  You’re a keeper.  I’m putting this friendship on the line, that’s for sure.

Having said that …

It’s simple folks.  Either you believe this season can be saved, or you don’t.  Either you believe this team has enough talent to rise into first place come 3:30pm CT Sunday, and hold onto it until January, or you don’t.  Either you believe this team is worth supporting, or you don’t.

If you think playing for first place to close out September portends doom for the Chiefs?  Please, sell your ticket(s) on eBay, on StubHub, on TicketMaster Exchange, just please – don’t show up Sunday.

We don’t need defeated losers like you occupying the stands.

This season is NOT over!  It’s only just begun!

And the fun truly begins Sunday. 

Six years ago, when sending out the “picks email” that so put me on the map, that I turned to blogging these picks, I noted as the 2-3 Chiefs returned home for a two game homestand against (a) the AFC’s best team in 2006 and (b) the defending NFC champions that “only we can ensure victory in these two contests”.

Fellow Chiefs fans?  It’s 2006 all over again. ONLY WE can ensure VICTORY these next two weeks, against (in order) … (a) the team I picked to win the Lombardi a month ago, and (b) the team that should be your defending AFC champions.  ONLY WE can alter this outcome.   ONLY WE can take my magical five word “take a mother f*cking guess” phrase, and make it magical!

ONLY WE can do that! 

Chiefs fans?  Fellow peoples and peepettes?

If you’re going my way?

I’ll go with you.

We ARE winning this game.  Behind 70,000 plus properly “lubricated” fans, who have NOT given up, have NOT sold out this season, who STILL believe in the greatness this team can achieve?  Behind US?

We aren’t losing.

I had four emails last week come in for my Chiefs win at Saints pick, asking if I’d lost all objectivity.  Quite the contrary!  I said we’d lose by 28 at Buffalo.  (We should have lost by 32).  I said we’d escape New Orleans (we did).  I like to feel I have my pulse on this team*.

And we?  Us?  Chiefs?  Chiefs fans? 

We are WINNING this game!

(*: I remain convinced that if Succup’s field goal to open the second half is good, to tie the game at 20?  You have a different outcome week one, the only game I’ve completely whiffed on so far.)

My tailgating group will be there before the gates open on Sunday.  We’ll be in our usual spot.  We welcome any and all Chiefs fans who show up expecting victory.  The menu is Charger Chicken*, assorted side items, probably some margaritas, and a few bloody mary’s to boot.

(*: if you have “4” in the “how many chicken boobs does Stevo demand get marinated in syrah overnight … I’d bet the over.  Red wine soaked grilled chicken is WICKEDLY good!)

If you need a spot to park, let me know.  I’ll save you a spot, as many spots as you need.  We need as close to 78,625 die hards in that stadium Sunday as we can muster.  We need every person who considers themselves a blinded by loyalty Chiefs fan to show up and occupy a spot in front of their seat Sunday.  We need beer pong pros (so I don’t have to play).  We need washer pros (again, so I don’t have to play).  We need you – the FANS of this team – we need YOU to show up, en masse, to root for the only thing in this metropolitan area we can all unite behind.

Ten years ago this weekend, I sent out “the defining moment”of my blogging / emailing / “fling it and hope it sticks” career.  Please – click the link.  Read what my thoughts were ten years ago, and change “Dolphins” to “Chargers”, and you’ll get it.  You’ll grasp what we, as fans of this team, face on Sunday.

And I trust, after reading it, you’ll do your job, as fans of this team, to somehow will this team, which has led for 0:00 seconds so far this year, into first place at the quarter pole.

Because if reading that link above doesn't fire you up?  Doesn't inspire you to show up well before kickoff to root this team on to victory they probably don't deserve?

Then how the f*ck are you a Chiefs fan?

We WILL win this game!  

Behind the combined strength of a team that is beginning to believe in its greatness, and a fanbase that refuses to consider any alternative other that greatness, let’s do this.

Be LOUD!  Make your mark! 

Make Arrowhead ROCK on Sunday!  denver fans could make their old stadium shake to its foundation.  It’s high damned time we made Arrowhead on a level par with Real Mile High.

at Chiefs (+1 ½) 23, Chargers 17 (OT), in yet another game that the Chiefs don’t lead until the final snap.  Be there folks.  Do your job as a fan, as someone who enjoys, watching the Chiefs play.  Do YOUR job as a Kansas Citian, who wants to see the local team win.

And as a final note: please -- visit the Hall of Honor Sunday.  (I plan to head in no later than 10:45am to pay a few minutes respect).  It is Alumni Weekend ... and sadly, the greatest Chief of them all, for a 29th straight year, can only participate in the festivities from Heaven.

Read up on Joe Delaney.  Please -- read up on Joe Delaney.  The fact that 37 is not permanently retired it OUTRAGEOUS.  The fact that so few people seem to care, is BEYOND outrageous.

Other than my father, I've never had a "hero" I look up to more than Joe Delaney.  Please, Chiefs fans, take a few minutes on Sunday to pay your respects to the Greatest Chief of All Time.  

And Scott Pioli?  

RETIRE 37 ALREADY!!! ...

And yeah, please, current Chiefs?

WIN!  THIS!  GAME!!!

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