Friday, October 21, 2011

week seven: just ...

The Week Seven Opening Theme:

“Chappy? What’s the matter?”
“I don’t know if I have anything left.”
“Chappy. You just throw whatever you got, whatever’s left. The boys are all here for you. We’ll back you up. We’ll be there! Because Billy? We don’t stink right now! We’re the best team in baseball, right now, right this minute, because of you! You’re the reason! We’re not gonna screw that up, we’re gonna be awesome for you right now!
Just! Throw!”

-- from “For Love of the Game”.

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Last Week SU: 8-5-0.
Season to Date SU: 41-36-0.

Last Week ATS: 8-3-2.
Season to Date ATS: 41-32-4.

Last Week Upset / Week: push on the spread.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 3-2-1.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-6-0.
This Week’s Upset / Week: Falcons (+3 ½) over Lions. For those of you asking “wait, both of your teams are underdogs in winnable games against AFC West teams this week, why not pick them in this spot?”, please, look at the straight up track record this year. This isn’t the time to be jinxing teams us Chiefs fans want to win.

The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Prognostications*:

(*: believe me, NOBODY is happier that for one week, every legitimate Chiefs fan has to cheer for my 1B team. Or is it the 16W team, in honor of the exit of the Fake Meadowlands off the Jersey Turnpike? Screw it, they’re Team 16W.)

* Redskins (+1) 24, at Panthers 20. Newly “Officially” Capitalized Mike Shanahan finds a way to win.

* at Saints (-14 ½) 65, Colts 20. I’d feel sorry for NBC having to air this debacle, but any network that employs an asshat like Peter King deserves the sh*ttiest games imaginable. Hey Pete? Please keep ranking the Chiefs as the worst team in the AFC West. Just like all of last year, when you had San Diego ahead of us EVERY F*CKING WEEK OF THE SEASON, even though the Chargers spent exactly ZERO days in first place, while we spent exactly ZERO days in anything other than first place. Never even tied – in sole possession from Opening Night to the Wildcard round. Screw you Pete. Screw you.

Not only that, because I ain’t done yet … what kind of moronic programming guru schedules a 10-6 team that crapped out at home to a mediocre Jets team for SIX prime time games? Or a team that went 6-10 and “regains” an at best shaky QB in the Cowboys for FIVE prime time games, plus a sixth national slot on Thanksgiving? Programming dude? There’s 32 f*cking teams in this league! Contrary to what you might believe, most of America couldn’t give two sh*ts about alleged all time great peyton manning (now 9-12 all time in the postseason!!!) or a team quarterbacked by a dude who basically shares his name with a well known rib joint in the Metroplex. (In the interest of full disclosure … my post-college graduation dinner was at Tony Roma’s in south Arlington. And yes, it is a DAMNED good place to eat. Highly Stevo recommended. Although not as highly recommended, in case you ever find yourself desiring quality food in Tarrant County, Texas, not as highly recommended as my favorite restaurant on earth, Uncle Julio’s, off of Camp Bowie and the West Freeway. Try the fajita platter and a pitcher of strawberry margaritas – you will NOT regret your decision …)

* Packers 27, at Vikings (+9) 24. One of the great underrated rivalries. Closer than expected. And Vikings fan? Get the damned stadium bill passed! You deserve your team. Pay to keep them.

* at Cowboys 28, Rams (+13 ½) 27. As my buddy Pickell would say, “let me put it this way”: would you lay two touchdowns on Tony Romo? Exactly. Wouldn’t shock me if the Rams win outright.

* at Cardinals (+3 ½) 24, Steelers 21. Not sold on this Pittsburgh team at all.

* Falcons (+3 ½) 31, at Lions 28. And the fall back to reality continues for the Lions.

* broncos (+1) 66, at Dolphins 6. If you don’t get why this is the predicted score, you need to develop a sense of humor.

* at Titans 27, Texans (+3 ½) 24. Love the half point – feels like a last second Bironas field goal game.

* at Seahawks (+2 ½) 27, Browns 20. How in the name of God are the Browns favored? On the road? Against a competently coached team (which the Browns are anything but) with a legitimate home field advantage?

* Bucs (+1) 21, Bears 17, in London. How in the name of God are the Bears favored? Across the ocean? Against a far superior Bucs team at every position save for possibly middle linebacker?

* at Jaguars (+9 ½) 14, Ravens 10. My “fling sh*t at the wall and hope it sticks” pick of the week, sponsored by nobody.

* The “Team 16W” Best Guess:

This line has moved 3 ½ points in three days. It opened Jets -1 ½, its currently Chargers -2 per the Stevo Site Numero Dos official oddsmaker, Danny Sheridan. And trust me, after witnessing what passed as the Jets offense on Monday night, I totally get the correction to the line.

Having said that … there is one tried and true gambling proviso I will ALWAYS believe in, because even though he somehow has done well in this current job, it’s been proven to be a sure-fire money winner over the years, and it is this:

When in doubt, bet against Norval Eugene Turner.

I went back and looked at my picks ATS for San Diego this year. 3-1-1 betting against Norv in every game this year – and even that’s somewhat deceiving, in that the one loss (denver +4 at home) was a 2 point game with 48 seconds remaining, and the tebows nearly rallied to win it outright.

Sunday, I’m improving to 4-1-1. More importantly, the Jets are improving to 4-3. MOST importantly, the Chargers are sliding to 4-2. Somehow, someway, this seriously flawed collection of Jets players finds a way to use home field to their advantage, to jumpstart their way back into the thick of the AFC Wildcard race, and to … well, we’ll get to that in the next section, what “REALITY” is for the Chiefs. At Jets (+2) 17, Chargers 13.

* The Chiefs (Possibly) Motivational Prognostication:

(“pastor stevo” clearing his throat …)
(“the congregation” half asleep, beginning to wake up …)

"Anybody been on base?"
"Nobody."
"Nobody?"
"This I ain't seen much of ..."

Ladies, gentlemen, fellow readers, fellow Chiefs fans. To those of you who have never given up hope, who, like “The Voice of Reason” and myself, have realized from day one that this is a process, that 0 and 3 is a start, not a finish – NOT a finish! – I want to say, that on Sunday, our faith in this team is going to be rewarded.

I believe in the underdog. I believe in this team. I believe that a season that defies all logical expectations, all dire predictions, is not only within reach, but Sunday, this team that we love, the Red and the Gold, is going to grab its’ “REALITY” by the throat, and refuse to let go.

Greatness sometimes comes, when you least expect it. Opportunity knocks sometimes, when you least expect it. Four weeks ago, we assembled here, and I attempted to give you reasons to show up to watch 0 and 3 Minnesota at 0 and 3 Kansas City. And to be honest? Even I had my doubts. When I’m citing “80 and sunny means 90 plus degrees in the lower bowl, outstanding tanning opportunity!!!” as a reason to shell out cash to watch a football game, you KNOW I’m struggling for a reason to watch said football game.

But here’s the thing. And it’s the guiding principle of this week’s prediction, and believe me, if the Chiefs and Jets outcomes, uuh, “outcome” as I expect, you’re going to get HAMMERED with it next week. Because our “REALITY” is as simple as this.

And yes, its reality! It’s not a crack pipe dream, its not some delusional “well, if A, B, C, D, and E happen, the F might occur” dream. Our “REALITY” is this.

If the Jets win at home, and the Chiefs beat a wounded duck of a raiders team by the Bay, well, in the words of the opening theme, we’re playing to be the best team in the AFC West. Right Now.

To be honest, I’m not much of a movie person. Give me a quality television drama played out over 22 to 25 weeks a year every day of the week, and twice on the day it airs, over some multi million dollar production that requires you to spend 2 ½ hours of your day sitting in a dark room with random strangers who are annoying the crap out of you with their phones, their conversation, and their knees pounding the back of your chair. But in this case, I’m hauling out a movie.

“I don’t know if I have anything left”.

Just about what all of us felt four weeks ago, right? And I say this as the only person walking this planet to legitimate predict a Chiefs Super Bowl berth this season*. “I don’t know if I have anything left”. Lord knows I felt that way after watching Matt Cassel give away overtime (at least) in San Diego on week three.

(*: for those of you who accuse me of being a homer, realize this: I’ve been doing the weekly picks since Gregg and I combined our “illegal” gambling pools in high school study hall to form one helluva gambling syndicate. That’s twenty f*cking years. I’m sure our mommies are so proud of the addicted degenerate gamblers we’ve become. And never ONCE before, have I predicted the Chiefs to win the Lombardi Trophy, and only once have I ever predicted for us to play for said Lombardi Trophy, in 2006. I generally speaking, am more down on the Chiefs actual results than your average bear. So if I push the chips into the middle of the table, turn over my pair of 5’s, and announce “I’m all in, gentlemen”, I have a DAMNED good reason for feeling as I do. If you’re paying attention, the end of the last sentence should jolt you wide awake. And if you’re not … here’s a hint: present tense of the last word.)

“You just throw whatever you got left”.

What we got left, after losing Tony Moeaki, Eric Berry, and Jamaal Charles for the season … is still one HELLUVA talented football team. More importantly, what we got left clearly has bought in hook, line, and sinker into what Coach Haley is selling.

Can we be honest here for a minute (or, in Stevo typing world, probably closer to three minutes)? Anyone can bail on a team when they’re 0 and 3. I get that. Just like anyone could have, oh for sh*ts and giggles, let’s just pick a team … anyone could have bailed on the St. Louis Cardinals when they stood 9 games out with 23 to play. Again, just for sh*ts and giggles … anyone could have bailed on the Green Bay Packers last December, when they had to have the woeful Detroit Lions go TO Tampa and beat the Bucs to simply qualify as the last team in the playoffs.

And other than me, anyone could have bailed on the Dallas Mavericks entering last year’s NBA postseason.

“The boys are all here for you! We’ll back you up! We’ll be here for you!”

Perhaps the best moment of my week, was Wednesday night at bowling league. I came in prepared to have to pep talk “The Kid” and “Boasheao” into showing up for Sunday’s watching party on The Deck (which anyone reading this that is a Chiefs fan, is more than welcome to attend, by the way. It is an official "raider hater" watching party.) Considering that four weeks ago, it was “The Kid”’s Facebook email that enraged me enough to type up a six page profane response, you can imagine my shock at his acknowledging “REALITY” when I got there.

“Cause Billy? We don’t stink right now!”

The Chiefs do NOT stink right now. Because of “REALITY”. And “REALITY” is this: with a Jets and a Chiefs victory on Sunday, next Monday night is for first place in the AFC West. That is reality. No need to put quotes around it anymore, or capitalize it for emphasis, because it's not a joke – it's reality.

“We’re not gonna screw that up! We’re gonna be awesome for you right now!”

(And then, the line that makes the scene …)

“Just! Throw!”

Sometimes, life is simple. And it really is this simple for the Chiefs. Just throw, Matt Cassel. Just run, Jackie Battle. Just catch, D Bowe and Steve Breaston. Just block, Jon Asomoah, Casey Weigmann, and Ryan Lilja. Just tackle, DJ. Just sack the quarterback, Tamba Hali. Just disrupt the run, Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson (having a really solid season well, well under the radar). Just intercept the pass, Brandon Brothers. Just coach, Coach Haley. Just aim for carson palmer’s knees early and often, Coach Romeo.

Just believe, Chiefs fans. Just believe.

As I posted yesterday, “Call me a dreamer, call me a little naïve, but I BELIEVE … in the underdog!” Sunday, in America’s ass crack, at the sh*ttiest stadium that hosts a NFL team, the Chiefs will do more than just catch, pass, run, block, tackle, intercept, and (hopefully) rape, plunder and pillage.

They’ll go one better, the most fitting tribute the Red and Gold can give to al davis that I can imagine.

Just win.

(Baby!)

Just win.

Chiefs (+ 4) 29, raiders 13.

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